Definitely. Toho is handling distribution in Japan. Universal sold their distribution rights to Toho back in 2007, and their films are released through Toho-Towa (Toho subsidiary). Paramount also sold their rights to Toho in 2015.

No Universal or Paramount film has been made available outside theaters (streaming, digital, home video) in Japan until they've run their course in theaters.

And it helps that Toho is very anti-streaming. And since they operate Toho Cinemas, no way will they let a film they have distribution rights to be made available outside theaters until they play out of them.

That's great. Now if only Disney did the same, but I know that will probably never happen especially with Disney+

Agreed, 12-13 seems like the floor at this point. As long as it doesn't fall too much after GW 15b is plausible too. 20b still looks tough. Mario has quite a bit of competition unlike say OPRed.

With the weekend increase incoming, I already see some people getting emboldened with their forecasts and predicting uber-phenomenon legs for Mario.

Very impressive for Mario. Its 1st hollywood adaptation that has broken out huge over there.

$3.4M Until FRI - Guardians 3

$1.75M Wed | $0.75M Thu | $0.90M Fri

A weekend increase was likely since it got a boost in seating (it sold ~70% of all its seats last weekend and couldn't go much higher), and since Sat/Sun usually come close to matching the holiday weekdays before them in Golden Week, it was going to be up.

Not to try and diminish it increasing, of course, it's still hugely impressive, it was just looking likely.

I'll be on board for ¥15 billion+ if the first few weekdays next week are strong. Post-GW is going to be key, because there is only one single holiday between now and summer vacation in mid-July.

Post-Golden Week to Summer Vacation (~2nd Week of May to ~3rd Week of July) isn't often a good time for many films, especially if they have a younger skew (although Mario's evening performance suggests it's not skewing too young). But! Super breakout hits are still able to bring in audiences despite down periods at the box office, so we'll see if Mario will be one of them outside the holidays soon.

That Thursday still looks oddly low. I'm going to keep the estimate I have, and if my total is off when actuals come in, that's fine.

We've had plenty of major releases playing just a couple/few weeks apart in the past, it's not uncommon when one of the three major holiday periods (Golden Week here) is going on since studios tend to stack the weeks prior/week of, but to have two of them posting such huge numbers (reaching their respective milestones as the third fastest films ever) two weeks apart on this level is amazing.

I didn't expect Sunday to be the biggest day for Mario. I thought the evening shows would slow down a lot due to people being back to school/work on Monday.

And that concludes Golden Week 2023! Now we wait for actuals to see how off these estimates throughout the week ended up being without having United Cinemas being tracked reliably all week.

In terms of revenue and admissions, I believe it's the biggest ever thanks to Super Mario and Detective Conan. Super Mario is far and away the biggest GW opener ever, a record-breaking performance so far for a Hollywood film (biggest 2-week total ever for a Hollywood film) and second highest 2-week total overall. And Detective Conan was the biggest holdover ever throughout GW, shattering the franchise record, and exceeding ¥10 billion in the third fastest number of days.

Tokyo MER played a distant third all week, but it's still performing really well. It'll get over ¥3 billion, which is a notable result for a local live-action film nowadays. Tokyo Revengers 2 is down a lot compared to the first film (the series' popularity has dropped considerably), so it's a disappointment there, but its GW numbers were respectable.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 disappointed a bit, but it's hard to really say it "disappointed" because it's still going to gross about the same as the first two films and is doing normal MCU numbers. And in fact, if actuals come in at around ¥700 million for its 5-day opening, there's a fair chance it can outgross Vol. 2. So, even if the numbers are low, it's not unexpected for a Marvel/DC film, and it could end up the biggest film in the Guardians trilogy in JPY (USD unlikely due to the bad exchange rate).

Finally, The First Slam Dunk continues to be a beast, and became the #3 highest grossing film of 2022 over GW by overtaking both Jujutsu Kaisen 0 and Top Gun: Maverick. And if Toei wants to keep it going, they might even be able to get it above Suzume to take the #2 spot of 2022. It'd be quite something if they did since they'd have the #1 (One Piece Film Red) and #2 films of 2022, which, to my knowledge, would be a first for the studio (at least in modern times 1980-).

Also, while I'm not projecting it yet (still want to see what non-holiday numbers look like), but Super Mario is in prime position to make a run at ¥15 billion.

There have been 6 films* in the last 15 years reach ¥15 billion, and of those six, only 2 (Avatar and Frozen) has been from Hollywood, the last being 9 years ago.

So, if Super Mario can reach it, it'll not just be amazingly impressive on its own, but it'll be a major moment for Hollywood's Japan box office history if it can prevent a full decade of going without one.

*This could rise to 7 or even 8 if Suzume and/or Slam Dunk get pushed there. They're still playing 5/6 months later, and ¥15 billion can't be ruled out based on where they stand.

$18.2M Weekend - $48.4M Total

Pretty close to what's been estimated all week! I'm $400,000 / $500,000 low if Universal's estimate is accurate (they were a little high last week). Good sign for everything else.

I'll use their number though to place it on the Biggest Second Weekend chart.

I hope Suzume gets a push to ¥15 billion. It's so close one final expansion/giveaway could do it.

They're going to try, I'm sure. They announced the end date (May 27th) before Golden Week, which gave it a bigger boost this past week than it would have had otherwise (not too far outside the Top 10 in its 26th week) and will keep interest to see it again (or for the first time) before May 27th.

If it follows the new trend of announcing the end date for these big films about a month in advance to give moviegoers a final chance to see set a day to them, it'll include a big expansion with a giveaway tie-in on the final weekend, so there's a strong chance it can do it.

Hey, Corpse you used to have charts of the top 10 biggest overall weeks/weekends back in the day. Are they still available? I reckon this golden week might be one for the record books.

Well... there is such a chart, but it's sort of outdated now since Japan has moved to 3-day weekends. It's going to take a very short time for the biggest aggregated weekends (formally 2-days) to only feature weekends from 2023-onward.

Detective Conan's opening weekend alone from three weeks ago would be enough to land on it (almost in the top 10) given the switch from 2 to 3 day. And yes, this past weekend (05/05-07) is by far the biggest aggregated weekend in history. Mario and Conan alone almost take #1.

Here is the chart WITHOUT any 2023 weekends on it. Do you guys want me to add 2023-onward weekends with an asterisk?

Biggest All-Time Aggregated Weekends (Top 10 Films; 1998-2022):

01. ¥3.908 billion - 10/17-18/2020 (#1 Film - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train)
02. ¥3.601 billion - 07/09-10/2005 (#1 Film - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith)
03. ¥3.561 billion - 10/24-25/2020 (#1 Film - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train)
04. ¥3.525 billion - 08/06-07/2022 (#1 Film - One Piece Film Red)
05. ¥3.485 billion - 08/04-05/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
06. ¥3.427 billion - 05/03-04/2014 (#1 Film - Frozen)
07. ¥3.423 billion - 07/19-20/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
08. ¥3.379 billion - 08/08-09/2015 (#1 Film - Jurassic World)
09. ¥3.377 billion - 08/10-11/2019 (#1 Film - One Piece: Stampede)
10. ¥3.329 billion - 07/21-22/2007 (#1 Film - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix)
11. ¥3.314 billion - 07/22-23/2006 (#1 Film - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)
12. ¥3.297 billion - 08/15-16/2015 (#1 Film - Jurassic World)
13. ¥3.212 billion - 07/28-29/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
14. ¥3.160 billion - 04/17-18/2010 (#1 Film - Alice in Wonderland)
15. ¥3.150 billion - 04/29-30/2017 (#1 Film - Beauty and the Beast)
16. ¥3.133 billion - 08/16-17/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
17. ¥3.127 billion - 10/31-11/01/2020 (#1 Film - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train)
18. ¥3.106 billion - 12/19-20/2015 (#1 Film - Star Wars: The Force Awakens)
19. ¥3.100 billion - 07/13-14/2019 (#1 Film - Toy Story 4)
20. ¥3.048 billion - 07/21-22/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
21. ¥3.046 billion - 12/20-21/2014 (#1 Film - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan!)
22. ¥3.026 billion - 08/04-05/2018 (#1 Film - Code Blue)

What do you think we should be looking at for monday for a good post-GW weekday? I've been eyeing 250M.