Disney animated films don't do gangbusters in Japan unless they're frozen anyway, so being a quintessential disney animated film doesn't really mean that much for Wish here.

I just noticed Disney's not releasing Elemental until August 4th, right in the middle of summer vacation and a week before Obon Festival. It's the most ideal release date possible. Yes, Miyazaki's film will (presumably) still be going strong, and it also opens against the 3D Crayon Shin-chan and Transformers, so seating will be tight, but July/August has supported a lot more than this in the past.

So, let's see what Elemental does. Pixar has regularly topped out between ¥4-5 billion in the past, so if Elemental lands in this range (or grosses more, of course), *maybe* they're not totally DOA in Japan yet. There should be absolutely NO reason why it can't do this given past precedent and its perfect release date.

However, if it also disappoints, doing under ¥3/4 billion, I feel it's time to move past the "let's wait and see until ___ opens" and declare its time (past time) for Disney to take action here. Losing what was consistently their biggest market for most non-MCU films really hurts.

Now, doing normal Pixar numbers isn't going to get them back on track; they're still going to be outside the Top 5 distributors for the year for a FOURTH consecutive year (when they used to be #2 nearly every year for over a decade). But... it'd be a start at least.

So it seems the new Sailor Moon movie bombed. For some reason, I thought this franchise was a lot more popular than it actually is in Japan.

(My) Little Mermaid Estimates:

Fri: ¥165-175 million ($1.2-1.3 million) / 105,000-110,000 admissions
Sat: ¥260-280 million ($1.9-2.0 million) / 170,000-180,000 admissions
Sun: ¥280-300 million ($2.0-2.2 million) / 180,000-190,000 admissions

Opening Weekend: ¥705-755 million ($5.1-5.4 million) / 455,000-480,000 admissions

Nice little Sunday bump likely puts it above ¥700 million for its 3-day opening weekend. This is only ~50-55% of Aladdin and Beauty's (3-day) opening weekends, so steep drop-off from Disney's live-action heights, however it's comparable to Cinderella and not very far off Maleficent (when looking at the 2-day frame).

So, far from Disney's return to form, and this opening doesn't guarantee them their first blockbuster since 2019, but there are some positives here still by being comparable to the "smaller" live-action remakes, and it's also Disney's biggest opening weekend since 2019, besting Avatar 2.

And while Japan doesn't usually follow what the rest of Asia does at the box-office (and vice-versa), and this film doing better than them isn't too surprising, this opening is quite good when compared to the rest of the region (and even many markets worldwide).

Let's set the goal at ¥4 billion ($29 million) and see where it goes from there. Even though the Sat/Sun frame is similar to Cinderella which went on to gross ¥5.73 billion, I believe ¥5 billion will be tougher here since Cinderella had the benefit of Golden Week in its second/third weeks. And Disney films in general have become more frontloaded. Avatar 2 is currently Disney's highest grossing film since 2019 at ¥4.31 billion ($33 million), so that could be the mark to beat if ¥5 billion looks unattainable.

Using the average of my range above to place it on the chart below.

Since Japan is on 3-day opening weekends now, we can't directly compare it to any other film on the list (all 2-day), but Mermaid's Sat/Sun frame should be around ¥560 million ($4.0 million) / 360,000 admissions (on par with Cinderella in revenue) if anyone wants to use that to get maybe a more comparable number to use.

Walt Disney Box-Office History:

OPENINGS:
¥1.944 billion ($16.6 million) / 1,421,738 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥1.616 billion ($14.9 million) / 1,210,000 - Frozen II (2019)
¥1.471 billion ($12.2 million) / 1,186,413 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥1.377 billion ($12.7 million) / 1,031,000 - Toy Story 4 (2019)
¥1.316 billion ($14.3 million) / 828,149 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.245 billion ($10.3 million) / 800,258 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥1.205 billion ($14.8 million) / 773,184 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥1.125 billion ($9.9 million) / 737,467 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
¥1.122 billion ($10.3 million) / 766,000 - Aladdin (2019)
¥1.065 billion ($9.7 million) / 729,114 - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥1.048 billion ($9.3 million) / 771,516 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
¥1.037 billion ($9.5 million) / 671,000 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
¥1.037 billion ($8.9 million) / 814,000 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2006)
___________
¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,249 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) / 628,000 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥847.4 million ($8.5 million) / 614,969 - Monsters University (2013)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) / 505,521 - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥763.4 million ($7.5 million) / 602,347 - Frozen (2014)
¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 - The Incredibles (2004)
¥745.5 million ($7.1 million) / 553,066 - Finding Dory (2016)
¥730.0 million ($5.2 million) / 467,500 - The Little Mermaid (2023)* *Estimate*
¥728.7 million ($6.8 million) / 497,000 - The Lion King (2019)
¥691.7 million ($6.8 million) / 500,837 - Maleficent (2014)
¥672.4 million ($6.2 million) / 437,209 - Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
¥653.4 million ($5.7 million) / 413,604 - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016)
¥627.7 million ($7.2 million) / 440,804 - Up (2009)
¥600.4 million ($5.2 million) / 463,556 - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥590.7 million ($4.5 million) / 465,624 - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥589.5 million ($5.1 million) / 466,480 - Moana (2017)
¥556.1 million ($4.7 million) / 419,796 - Cinderella (2015)
¥550.0 million ($4.9 million) / 445,000 - Dinosaur (2000)
¥545.9 million ($4.5 million) / 410,089 - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)
¥504.9 million ($4.2 million) / 379,941 - Ratatouille (2007)
¥504.1 million ($4.6 million) / 394,231 - The Haunted Mansion (2004)
¥500.9 million ($6.4 million) / 326,109 - The Avengers (2012)

*3-Day (2023-Present)


TOTALS:
¥25.50 billion ($249.6 million) / 20.03 million - Frozen (2014)
___________
¥13.37 billion ($122.4 million) / 10.45 million - Frozen II (2019)
¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) / 8.95 million - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥12.16 billion ($112.0 million) / 8.55 million - Aladdin (2019)
¥11.80 billion ($142.8 million) / 7.59 million - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥11.63 billion ($96.3 million) / 7.48 million - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥11.00 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.60 million - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥10.90 billion ($102.4 million) / 8.40 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥10.80 billion ($130.7 million) / 7.36 million - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥10.09 billion ($94.3 million) / 7.82 million - Toy Story 4 (2019)
¥10.02 billion ($82.3 million) / 7.75 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
__________
¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million) / 7.60 million - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥9.18 billion ($77.7 million) / 7.22 million - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥8.96 billion ($91.3 million) / 7.05 million - Monsters University (2013)
¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) / 5.86 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥7.63 billion ($70.6 million) / 5.91 million - Zootopia (2016)
¥7.51 billion ($66.3 million) / 5.05 million - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
¥7.32 billion ($66.9 million) / 4.88 million - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
¥6.86 billion ($56.4 million) / 5.60 million - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2006)
¥6.83 billion ($65.8 million) / 5.57 million - Finding Dory (2016)
¥6.80 billion ($60.3 million) / 5.10 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)
¥6.71 billion ($60.2 million) / 4.55 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
¥6.67 billion ($62.9 million) / 4.66 million - The Lion King (2019)
¥6.53 billion ($63.5 million) / 4.98 million - Maleficent (2014)
¥6.13 billion ($55.4 million) / 4.15 million - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
¥5.73 billion ($46.6 million) / 4.46 million - Cinderella (2015)
¥5.26 billion ($51.1 million) / 4.40 million - The Incredibles (2004)
¥5.16 billion ($46.1 million) / 4.25 million - Moana (2017)
¥5.00 billion ($46.6 million) / 3.98 million - Coco (2018)
¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million) / 3.80 million - Up (2009)
__________
¥4.90 billion ($44.3 million) / 4.06 million - Incredibles 2 (2018)
¥4.90 billion ($40.2 million) / 3.95 million - Dinosaur (2000)
¥4.63 billion ($39.9 million) / 3.08 million - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016)
¥4.31 billion ($33.0 million) / 2.37 million - Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)
¥4.25 billion ($37.2 million) / 3.50 million - Aladdin (1993)
¥4.04 billion ($33.6 million) / 3.40 million - Inside Out (2015)
¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) / 3.20 million - Wall-E (2008)

$5.0M OW per Disney

Close. I'll just keep the estimate above until we have the actual.

Would Japan be the only market in the world that The Little Mermaid grosses more than Avatar 2? Still a ways to go before we know if that'll happen, but it's at least a 50/50 chance with this opening.

Biggest June Opening Weekends (1998-)

¥2.223 billion ($18.7 million) / 1,486,743 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
________
¥1.871 billion ($17.3 million) / 1,469,755 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥1.122 billion ($10.3 million) / 766,000 - Aladdin (2019)
¥1.005 billion ($9.6 million) / 805,350 - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
________
¥730.0 million ($5.2 million) / 467,500 - The Little Mermaid (2023)* *Estimate*
¥698.6 million ($6.5 million) / 460,340 - Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019)
¥676.9 million ($6.3 million) / 479,000 - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (2019)
¥669.9 million ($5.0 million) / 497,526 - Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (2022)
¥624.2 million ($5.2 million) / 416,632 - Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle (2003)
¥603.5 million ($4.9 million) / 447,144 - Live Free or Die Hard (2007)
¥592.1 million ($6.1 million) / 461,866 - Terminator Salvation (2009)
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) / 426,604 - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥562.6 million ($5.8 million) / 439,993 - Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009)
¥512.2 million ($5.3 million) / 354,852 - Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance (2009)
¥506.2 million ($4.8 million) / 369,119 - The Magic Hour (2008)
________
¥499.3 million ($4.5 million) / 375,293 - Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018)
¥444.8 million ($4.1 million) / 349,950 - Shoplifters (2018)
¥432.0 million ($3.8 million) / 320,000 - Trick 2 (2006)
¥412.9 million ($3.4 million) / 299,000 - 300 (2007)
¥408.8 million ($3.6 million) / 308,600 - Death Note (2006)
¥400.2 million ($3.3 million) / 251,811 - Love Live! The School Idol Movie (2015)

*3-Day (2023-Present)

June is one of the weakest months of the year (lowered the threshold to chart to ¥400m vs the normal ¥500m just so there were more entries), so few very big films open in the month (usually only over the last weekend so they're a couple weeks from summer vacation).

However, it is still home to the third biggest OW ever (Matrix 2) and ninth biggest OW ever (Harry Potter 3), and it is a pretty heavy Hollywood dominated month since local films usually avoid it and go to July/August. Disney is notable in avoiding it for their Pixar releases, too, choosing July for the majority of their releases (although Elemental will open in August) since younger-skewing films rarely perform well outside of summer/holiday periods.

Studio Ghibli next film and supposedly Hayao Miyazaki final film "How Do You Live?" will open in 33 days. Since it will with the exception of a teaser poster eschew marketing altogether, what could it potential OW be in Japan with the Studio Ghibli and Hayao name recognition but of course with no other marketing?

Today I learned that Japan's largest IMAX theater, Grand Cinema Sunshine in Toshima Tokyo, is showing The Little Mermaid with English audio and Japanese subtitles.

Kind of surprised but that sounds like a good experience if I went there. I'd be able to enjoy the movie there because I know English of course.

The OW of $5 million seems pretty nice to me, considering I don't think the original Little Mermaid was extremely popular in Japan.

Also see that 109 Cinemas Osaka Expocity's IMAX, a similar venue has a subtitled showing as well.

Did subtitled showings become more popular in Japan? Or is it because it's a musical?

Funny you mention that because this past week I was seeing people discussing that the subtitled showings were doing oddly well. It's even the first time I've seen people bring it up. Dubbed showings generally perform much better. I don't know if the subtitled showings/sales are equal or greater than the dubbed showings, but they're doing well enough to generate discussion at least.

I don't know if I'd link it to being a musical, the dub singing cast is usually very good in these cases, so I'm not exactly sure why this film seems to be unusual in this case. I feel I would have noticed people mentioning it with all the other musicals of the past.

It's a real mystery!

I'd have to think the opening weekend would be subdued without any marketing. Yes, Studio Ghibli and Hayao Miyazaki are as famous as can be, and seeing a film with their name alone will get a lot of people to turn out, but some just might not be aware when it's being released. And some (families) could be reluctant to go opening weekend with no footage or plot released.

If a casual moviegoer, or even Ghibli/Miyazaki fan, doesn't really pay attention to movie news, they're probably not going to know when it's opening. And if they do, they won't be able to ask anyone what it's about nor look it up because they've decided to not releasing anything on it.

So, it might take time for audiences to make their way to the theaters from WOM and/or curiosity. The only help they'll get when looking it up will be online scores and people talking about it on social media.

I think not marketing the film could ironically be a marketing strategy as well. Since no one will have seen any footage, and have no knowledge of the plot or casting, it might create a "must-see" sort of scenario for audiences to come out and be the first to watch the movie too.

Whatever the case, it's definitely going to be one of the most interesting and unique openings (and even runs given the circumstances) in history to watch.

The precedent is Lightyear which bombed and didn't come close to those benchmarks.

I don't see any reason why Elemental will be a runaway success. Don't know what you think Disney should do in regards to Japan.

Maybe it will be Elemental s biggest foreign market. I don't think any other market will give it more than $20 million

Not true. There is Big Hero 6, Zootopia, Finding Dory, Finding Nemo, the Toy Story movies...

I'm not including Pixar in this since the conversation is in regards to Wish. Zootopia and BH6 did do really well (not enough to break the 10b barrier though), but they definitely aren't "quintessential disney films", they were quite different compared to the usual works from the studio.

The usual disney princess animated film normally hits 5b at best

Yeah, Pixar hasn't been bomb/disappointment free in Japan. Brave is their lowest grossing film and didn't even gross ¥1 billion; The Good Dinosaur didn't reach ¥2 billion; Lightyear bombed and barely got above ¥1 billion (although this somehow still Disney's biggest animated film since 2019, just to show how badly they've done the past 3.5 years).

And to be clear, I don't have any faith in Elemental. It just has the perfect release date, that if it's going to do regular Pixar numbers, it couldn't be in a better spot. For that reason, there's no excuse it shouldn't do well.

As I've said, it's been 3.5 years now since they fell off and something would have found success by now. You don't go from being the #2 distributor (#1 foreign) in the market for over a decade to suddenly falling outside the top 5 for the past four years.... It wasn't a gradual decline, it was sudden. The only explanation is Disney+ because no other studio has a streaming presence in Japan, and none of them has suffered like Disney. They were also the only studio that half the theaters in the country were boycotting in 2020/2021 because of Disney+. Every other studio either returned back to normal in 2021 or even broke their yearly earnings since.

As for what Disney needs to do... I think they only have two options if they want to turn things around, unless they're fine with their huge decline in the market of course. Those would be:

1. Change up their Disney+ model in the market. This will take some accounting on their part for sure, trying to weigh their earnings/losses theatrically vs Disney+ subscribers. The only way it'll work, theatrically, is if they can condition audiences to make Disney+ a second thought. And to do that, it's going to take some time and they'll probably have to keep their films off Disney+ for as long as a full year. Even 6 months has proven to be ineffective. When audiences realize they won't be able to wait the 3-6 months, and instead as long as a full year, they may come back to see them in theaters. There's a lot of balancing here though, I think, because it could impact their Disney+ earnings if they delay film debuts for longer than 6 months.

2. Sell their distributor rights. This would be the final resort scenario, but might ultimately be the biggest payoff. They'd likely get a lot for the rights to begin, and if Universal and Paramount are anything to go by, their films will perform better in Japan under Toho (likely). I don't know what percentage share they'd get theatrically from such a deal, but if their films start doing normal numbers again, it may be more than they're making now. And they won't have to spend money, as much at least, releasing/marketing the films either. However... doing this means Disney+ would likely take a hit because Toho wouldn't allow the films to release on Disney+ for a long time. Toho (who also operate Toho Cinemas, the busiest chain in Japan) is very anti-steaming and led the charge in boycotting Disney in 2020/2021 because of Disney+.

Not sure Disney+ is the reason Lightyear bombed in Japan.

Maybe selling the distribution rights to Toho would in fact be the best deal.

Strange there doesn't seem to be any panic or urgency on Disney's part to their collapse as a distributor. It almost seems they are content with the trade-off in box office for that Disney+ money in Japan. I do think it's possible for both to co-exist although drastic changes need to be made specifically for Japan as mentioned above.

Disney is so huge, it may just be a miniscule number in the grand scheme of things. Yeah, they're losing tens of millions, even hundreds of millions, at the box office in Japan now, but what is that to them globally? Especially if Disney+ in the market offsets some of that. Although with the awful exchange rate, Disney's not getting as much from Disney+ out of Japan these days. It's hovered between $6-7 there for a year+ now vs $9/10 that it was before 2022.

Or maybe they're just waiting to see if things will turn around. I can see this for the first couple years not being a bad idea, but it's been pretty clear for a while they have a problem.

Weekend
1 The Little Mermaid 711,800,560
2 Super Mario Bros. 432,190,650/11,586,745,100
6 Detective Conan 152,446,730/12,808,030,310
11 Slam Dunk 45,930,400/14,531,524,120
16 RRR 18,879,800/2,153,163,700
19 GOTG3 9,356,480/1,301,842.648

Before this
Weekend
1 Super MarioBros 576,075,390/10,961,331,310
3 怪物 325,419,020
9 Slam Dunk 69,824,810/14,436,078,140
12 Tokyo Revengers 39,072,890/2,408,942,190
14 RRR 26,378,530/2,119,846,820
15 GOTG3 25,998,320/1,276,154,488
27 My Happy Marriage 6,701,600/2,752,967,750

CS Figures. So might be different from Bunka News.

Thanks for sharing, especially the numbers out of the top 10.

I'll update everything this evening.

They pretty much match up with everything I see.

Shameless bump. (Really hate when a Weekend Actual post is the last post of page.)