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 Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus 
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Corpse wrote:
pookpooi wrote:
This source said Ghibli spent 10 billion yen on marketing Spirited Away
https://www.animenewsnetwork.com/intere ... on/.146576


That is so absurd. I was going to assume it was a typo, then saw it mentioned again in an article this week. Princess Mononoke sounds like it was their most profitable film, and then they used the money from it on Spirited Away's marketing.

And it honestly seems like Ghibli was always on the cusp of being one film away from having to shutter their film production department until they did after 2013. The ¥1 billion budgets for the early 90s films was very high and a risk themselves. It's still risky to give films a ¥1 billion budget today. If one or both didn't perform well, that certainly would have hit the studio hard and possibly complicated Princess Mononoke's production.

And spending ¥10 billion on marketing for Spirited Away??? Combined with the budget, they made very little profit on it despite it being the biggest film of all-time from 2001-2020. In fact, it probably barely broke even!

Looking back, it seemed that almost all their films, despite most of them grossing a LOT (Miyazaki especially) were just barely breaking even or pulling a small profit due to high budgets and/or marketing until they began losing a lot of money and closed their film production.

In short: Studio Ghibli never really operated from a business/profit aspect in mind. They were taking it one film at a time, basically, and any one film had the potential to end them until the box back-to-back losses from Tales of Princess Kaguya and Wind Rises did in 2013.



Corpse, can you elaborate more on your analysis?

How did The Wind Rises lose money? It had a $30 million budget and made 136 million at the box office. The Blu-rays also sold well. I can't see them losing money unless they spent over $50 million in marketing and only got 20% from overseas box office and little from blu-rays sold overseas.

I honestly can't see how Spirited Away barely broke even either. It grossed almost $400 million and sold millions in VHS/DVD/blu-rays and a lot of merchandise probably (which covers the marketing).

As for the 2013 shutdown, was it due to costs? It seems to be due to Miyazaki's retirement.

They did have a recent GoFundMe campaign to save their museum due to the pandemic closure. So they probably don't have much liquidity currently.


Last edited by KNYtracker777 on Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Jun 06, 2023 1:29 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
10b marketing for SA feels like complete bs. Most blockbusters barely if even spend that much on worldwide marketing even today, there's no way a japanese company was spending those nujmbers on pretty much only japanese marketing in 2003. I just don't see how it would even possible to spend those numbers.


Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Quote:
WOULD YOU SEE A THEATRICAL FILM WITH NO TRAILERS, IMAGES, PLOT, OR CASTING RELEASED??


IN A HEARTBEAT :D if it's from a studio I trust like SB & Pixar

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Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
KNYtracker777:

Of course. For starters, you can find articles about how The Wind Rises hadn't turned a profit yet during its run when it broke ¥10 billion (here is one article)

To break down how it, and other films earn (or lose) money:

Theaters get 50% of a film's revenue in Japan to start. Without them, no earnings, so they get a 50% share.

So if a film earned ¥10 billion, that gets reduced to ¥5 billion. Then 20% of that remaining total goes to the distributor, so it becomes ¥4 billion which gets divided among the production companies.

The Wind Rises reportedly had a budget near ¥5 billion. It grossed ¥12.02 billion, so after giving theaters and the distributor their shares, we're down to ¥4.81 billion leftover for the production companies to divide (only Ghibli in this case). That's already below the budget though, not accounting for what was spent on the marketing campaign. I imagine the marketing budget was low for this one in particular, as it started late, but any money spent on it further added to the likely loss they took theatrically.

There is overseas to consider, of course, and home video sales, but most Japanese films don't earn much overseas (at least not until more recently). The Wind Rises only earned around $15 million overseas, and after subtracting the cuts to get it released overseas, any gain was very minimal (if they even earned anything at all, could have lost money).

The Tale of Princess Kaguya was the real sinker though. Even if The Wind Rises managed to break even from its home video sales, Kaguya also had a budget of ¥5 billion (believed to be even higher than The Wind Rises) and only grossed ¥2.47 billion... After theater and distributor cuts, Ghibli didn't even earn ¥1 billion from it theatrically in Japan (80% less than the budget...) before marketing costs.

As for Spirited Away, I believe it had a ¥2 billion budget. However, I had no idea they spent a ridiculous ¥10 billion on MARKETING. That's insane. After its original run, Ghibli would have made a huge ¥12.16 billion on it after theatrical and distributor cuts, but that only allowed it to break even with its budget plus marketing costs in Japan. Of course, add in its huge home video sales in Japan, it would have turned a profit, but far less than it would have if not for that, well, stupid marketing campaign.

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Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:39 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
JustLurking wrote:
10b marketing for SA feels like complete bs. Most blockbusters barely if even spend that much on worldwide marketing even today, there's no way a japanese company was spending those nujmbers on pretty much only japanese marketing in 2003. I just don't see how it would even possible to spend those numbers.


Yeah, it sounds ridiculous. Seeing it pop up back in 2019 and again this week is a little odd though.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jun 06, 2023 2:43 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Corpse wrote:
KNYtracker777:

Of course. For starters, you can find articles about how The Wind Rises hadn't turned a profit yet during its run when it broke ¥10 billion (here is one article)

To break down how it, and other films earn (or lose) money:

Theaters get 50% of a film's revenue in Japan to start. Without them, no earnings, so they get a 50% share.

So if a film earned ¥10 billion, that gets reduced to ¥5 billion. Then 20% of that remaining total goes to the distributor, so it becomes ¥4 billion which gets divided among the production companies.

The Wind Rises reportedly had a budget near ¥5 billion. It grossed ¥12.02 billion, so after giving theaters and the distributor their shares, we're down to ¥4.81 billion leftover for the production companies to divide (only Ghibli in this case). That's already below the budget though, not accounting for what was spent on the marketing campaign. I imagine the marketing budget was low for this one in particular, as it started late, but any money spent on it further added to the likely loss they took theatrically.

There is overseas to consider, of course, and home video sales, but most Japanese films don't earn much overseas (at least not until more recently). The Wind Rises only earned around $15 million overseas, and after subtracting the cuts to get it released overseas, any gain was very minimal (if they even earned anything at all, could have lost money).

The Tale of Princess Kaguya was the real sinker though. Even if The Wind Rises managed to break even from its home video sales, Kaguya also had a budget of ¥5 billion (believed to be even higher than The Wind Rises) and only grossed ¥2.47 billion... After theater and distributor cuts, Ghibli didn't even earn ¥1 billion from it theatrically in Japan (80% less than the budget...) before marketing costs.

As for Spirited Away, I believe it had a ¥2 billion budget. However, I had no idea they spent a ridiculous ¥10 billion on MARKETING. That's insane. After its original run, Ghibli would have made a huge ¥12.16 billion on it after theatrical and distributor cuts, but that only allowed it to break even with its budget plus marketing costs in Japan. Of course, add in its huge home video sales in Japan, it would have turned a profit, but far less than it would have if not for that, well, stupid marketing campaign.


Thanks for the detailed reply, Corpse!

I understand the 50% theater cut. I based my understanding on the general Hollywood rule that 2.5 times the production budget is breakeven. Though, as you said, this doesn't apply to Japanese production studios due to distribution. Moreso when you add production committees to the mix.

For the overseas part, this part is the most difficult for me to know about. From what I know or assume, distributors pay an upfront payment to distribute (and they handle everything from marketing to video sales etc, usually) the work and give a 10–20% cut from revenue. Isn't that correct? If so, then how could they possibly lose money?

Kaguya was a bomb. Even it's home video sales were very low. I'm sure they lost a couple billion on that.

if the 10B figure is indeed correct. Then the Spirited Away marketing campaign was too expensive. That's about 100 million? Even recent big Hollywood blockbusters have 100–150 million USD marketing campaigns, so they were likely lower in the early 2000s, which means Spirited Away had one of the most expensive marketing campaigns for its time. And most likely the most expensive for a Japanese film.


Tue Jun 06, 2023 4:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
I don't know much about how overseas rights/distribution is handled. I just assume that if a Japanese film only earns $10-20 million overseas, it leaves little room for any profit. But I could be wrong, because I don't know. If distributors pay a Japanese studio money upfront for distribution rights, then yeah, it makes sense they'd make money from that, especially if they also received a cut of the earnings.

And yeah, I don't know about that Spirited Away marketing budget. I mean, there are two different articles in different years that mention it (that I've found), but it's so ridiculous. I want to think it's suppose to be ¥1 billion. A ¥1 billion marketing budget is very high and likely near the max any films receives already. 10x that just sounds... well, insane! Haha.

Most budgets in Japan stay below ¥1 billion. A vast majority, in fact. And while budgets are hard to come by, I get the impression many are closer to ¥500 million for the majority of wide releases. Only the bigger films with a degree of expected success would be approaching/exceeding ¥1 billion (very few exceed). Earning ¥1 billion is considered the "commercial success" milestone in Japan, being the mark where most films break even and enter profitability in theaters.

The problem Studio Ghibli had was its budgets though. Their films have the highest budgets in Japan. They gave their films these crazy budgets due to traditional animation just being more expensive and taking much longer to produce, to where earning money, at least anything substantial, was almost always impossible. Giving a Miyazaki film a ¥2 billion budget is perfectly fine, but giving every other film a budget in that range is extraordinarily risky. A film would have to gross ¥5 billion just to break even theatrically, and only two non-Miyazaki Ghibli films ever broke ¥5 billion.

And the ones given "smaller" budgets, like When Marnie Was There's ¥1.2 billion budget, still weren't able to make much profit. After the theater and distributor cut, this film only earned them about ¥350 million theatrically before marking costs, so just barely above breaking even despite a budget roughly half their average.

And From Up On Poppy Hill had a ¥2.2 billion budget, and after the math, lost about ¥400 million theatrically even before marketing costs.

So, outside of the Miyazaki films (up until The Wind Rises anyway, where any profit was relatively small), everything was either just breaking even or generating small profits which made operation difficult. They seemed to be in a situation of just being able to stay afloat and little more most of the time. But they knew this by staying with the traditional animation style vs cutting costs with digital and/or CGI animation. I'm glad they stuck with traditional animation, but it came with a steep cost.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jun 06, 2023 4:25 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
I'm also afraid to see the budget for How Do You Live?. Haha. It's Miyazaki's longest production at seven years, and Ghibli's second longest after Tales of Princess Kaguya (8 years) which had their highest budget.

And it's all hand-drawn. He was only completing 1 minute of the film per month, and the 60 animators had completed just 36 minutes of the film in the first three years (~12 mins a year) of production. COVID actually sped up the process though, since traveling wasn't involved anymore and everyone could just draw/animate at home. It was looking at a 2025 release, I think, at the pace they were going between 2016-2019.

I guess it doesn't really matter what the budget is here, though, since it seems all but certain this will finally be it for them either way. It's not going to have any impact. All the regular Ghibli workers formed their own studio already.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jun 06, 2023 4:50 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spider Man Box Office History
mark66 wrote:
Corpse wrote:
TOTALS:
¥7.50 billion ($59.2 million) / 5.14 million - Spider-Man (2002)
¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million) / 5.17 million - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥6.70 billion ($61.1 million) / 4.80 million - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥4.25 billion ($37.7 million) / 2.82 million - Spider-Man: No Way Home (2022)
¥3.16 billion ($39.1 million) / 2.15 million - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥3.14 billion ($30.7 million) / 2.08 million - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥3.06 billion ($28.2 million) / 2.11 million - Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019)
¥2.80 billion ($25.6 million) / 1.89 million - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
¥800 million ($7.1 million) / 505,000 - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018)


Any idea if the three SPIDER-MAN movies cut together from the TV series made it to theaters in Japan as well? The three movies did okay in Germany back in 1978-81...


I'll check around to see if I can find anything. There's also a Spider-Man Japanese film from 1978 that was a spin-off of the Japanese TV series from 1978-1978 I see... I'll look it up too.

Kanroji might know more. He's pretty great at finding data before 1980.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jun 06, 2023 5:59 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya is not just the most expensive Ghibli film, it's the most expensive Japanese film*. And there's high chance that How Do You Live? will surpass that milestone.

*Excluding Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within which was co-produced by American and Japanese studios.


Wed Jun 07, 2023 1:10 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Corpse wrote:
JustLurking wrote:
10b marketing for SA feels like complete bs. Most blockbusters barely if even spend that much on worldwide marketing even today, there's no way a japanese company was spending those nujmbers on pretty much only japanese marketing in 2003. I just don't see how it would even possible to spend those numbers.


Yeah, it sounds ridiculous. Seeing it pop up back in 2019 and again this week is a little odd though.

I just don't see how that money would be spent, honestly. Like, I'm sure it was high, and I don't doubt it may even have been the highest for a japanese film at the time, but 10b in marketing alone? That's just absurd imho. Even with articles citing that, I just can't wrap my head around how those numbers would be achieved.

The film would still have been a big success eventually, I imagine, since it was (is) huge on home video, tv rights, merch and so on. But even still, I just don't see it. Even moreso considering Japan isn't a country for bombastic openings, and Spirited Away was no exception, so I would imagine money spent on marketing couldn't be that high. Like, I'm sure marketing a blockbuster in the US would cost significantly more than doing the same in Japan, and even then I don't think a single film spends that much on marketing in the US alone.


Wed Jun 07, 2023 9:39 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Some Spider-Man talk yesterday, and I just found out LiSA is doing the theme song ("REALiZE") for the movie for the Japanese release:



LiSA is very popular, of course, but this probably won't have much of an impact I don't think... but maybe it can help with marketing it to teens. Either way, it's very cool they have a local artist doing the theme song for it since Western artists are basically unknown in Japan these days.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jun 07, 2023 11:58 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Seating is out for The Little Mermaid, and it's received plenty do put up an impressive opening if interest among moviegoers is there.

High seating doesn't always mean confidence from theaters that a film is going to do well, but it's obviously better than seeing them be cautious out of the gate. On the other hand, not going super high (it's pretty standard for a high-profile tentpole) is probably a sign theaters aren't expecting a huge opening either.

Reservations don't look great or bad, though it's still a little early to say one way or another what will happen this weekend. Saturday is performing better than Friday, which should be expected and considered a healthy sign. I don't see a bomb like what happened in China and South Korea, but also no indication of a potential breakout at this stage yet either.

So yeah, there is your early "preview" for The Little Mermaid this weekend. I know it was totally helpful in trying to predict its opening! :funny:

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Jun 07, 2023 5:45 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
TLM in Japan should gross more than the rest of Asia combined like Mario. Granted, it needs a much smaller number to do so. :funny:


Thu Jun 08, 2023 1:49 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
By the way Corpse, someone posted on BOT that a new site has been made to track AEON. Even has friday presales. Good stuff.

https://plaza.rakuten.co.jp/mav23/diary/202306080007/

Not great for mermaid either.


Thu Jun 08, 2023 10:25 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
¥900M for ITSV

I am not sure if TV-cut Movies make into Theatres. Corpse mentioned 24 mins 1978 Spiderman could be limited.

Did find some interesting things from Toei Anime Fair (Because I looking into Spiderman data) :mer:

All Rentals make by SLAM DUNK Short films in Toei Anime Fair

Image

And found another breakout like RRR - "One Cut of the Dead" which did ¥13,739,600 in 3 weeks, slowly broke out an reached ¥3.12B in 30 weeks!

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Thu Jun 08, 2023 11:31 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
JustLurking wrote:
By the way Corpse, someone posted on BOT that a new site has been made to track AEON. Even has friday presales. Good stuff.

https://plaza.rakuten.co.jp/mav23/diary/202306080007/

Not great for mermaid either.


Very nice! May be able to add them to mimorin to get back to estimating like old times.

To be "fair" though, Aeon has the most seats of any chain, so occupancy is typically lower than the other major chains. And, while I don't have any data to back this claim up, I believe walk-ups are higher at Aeon Cinemas on average since most of their locations are in shopping malls.

And always important to remember that Friday, even though it's counted as part of the weekends now, still behaves like a weekday.

Aladdin's Friday was only 19.6% of its 3-Day Opening. And Friday was just 22.8% of Beauty and the Beast's 3-Day Opening. So Friday accounting for ~1/5 of Mermaid's 3-Day Opening should be expected given the two best comparisons (Aladdin being the ideal one since it opened on the same weekend 4 years ago).

So I'm not looking at Friday too much unless it would come in clearly low at the end of the day (evening shows are filling up best, so may need to wait until at least 7pm to get a good idea).

If Mermaid can do ~¥250 million on Friday, then it's likely in good shape for the weekend. That would likely get it above ¥1 billion for the 3-Day. For this to happen, it'll need around 90,000 admissions at the usual locations, and presumably ~110,000 with Aeon included. For comparison, Beauty did ¥314 million on Friday while Aladdin did ¥274 million.

Note! I'm not saying I think Mermaid will do similarly as Aladdin and Beauty. Just noting where it should be on Friday if it's to compare to them. I don't think it's going to do as well, but I also don't see it disappointing right now either (disappointing meaning... I suppose less than Cinderella/Maleficent/Lion King numbers, which would be still be great for this one compared to the OS numbers).

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Jun 08, 2023 4:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Okay, so unless evening sales pick up significantly, Mermaid is definitely more of a Cinderella than Aladdin or Beauty... and that's best case, I think. It's also at risk of opening below Avatar 2.

After this weekend, Disney has got to take action in Japan. And they only have two options, both of which still complicate things for them and may not help. But regardless, they can't continue to operate like they are now and need to act.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jun 09, 2023 1:45 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Corpse wrote:
After this weekend, Disney has got to take action in Japan. And they only have two options, both of which still complicate things for them and may not help. But regardless, they can't continue to operate like they are now and need to act.


It's not that big deal, at least, not anymore, for studios to send their movies to die in cinema when the new warzone is streaming market.


Fri Jun 09, 2023 2:54 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Numbers as of 2PM were about ~65% of Aladdin's friday, which I think is fairly ok considering it straight up bombed everywhere else in Asia. But I'm not sure about the pace...feels like it's going to fall off that comp through the day.


Fri Jun 09, 2023 3:09 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Okay, evening/night sales were pretty good and looks to have done about 60% of Aladdin's Friday in admissions. And it's roughly 5% higher than Avatar 2.

Not great, but hey, as you mentioned, could have been worse based on it bombing across other Asian markets. So, good to see Japan buck that, even if it's still off a good bit.

I'm going to estimate ¥165-175 million ($1.2/1.3 million) today. That can give it ¥700-800 million ($5-5.7 million) over the 3-day. From there, it'll likely be aiming for ¥4-5 billion ($30-35 million). Once again, far from great and probably lower than Cinderella and on par with Avatar 2 (just using it since it's been Disney's biggest film in 3.5 years) depending on legs, but this seems to be as high as Disney can go in the market these days.

And... $30/35 million (yes, the exchange rate is still terrible at 20/25 year lows) might be enough to make Japan its #1 OS market? Second place behind the UK at least looks locked in.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
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Fri Jun 09, 2023 8:58 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Yeah like, it's not *GOOD* in a vacuum for a disney remake obviously. But since this film absolutely facetanked in the entirety of Asia, anything north of 4-5b is a solid number for it. Not for Disney, really, which continues stumbling in the market, but still.


Fri Jun 09, 2023 11:56 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
(My) Little Mermaid Estimates:

Fri: ¥165-175 million ($1.2-1.3 million) / 105,000-110,000 admissions
Sat: ¥260-280 million ($1.9-2.0 million) / 170,000-180,000 admissions

Assuming a Sunday either on par with/slightly below Saturday, it's probably looking at a 3-day opening weekend of ¥675-725 million ($4.9-5.2 million) / 435,000-460,000 admissions. A big drop-off from Disney's live-action heights, down ~50% vs both Aladdin and Beauty. And while the opening weekend (now a 3-day) will put it above Cinderella and on par with Maleficent, the Sat/Sun frame will be lower than them.

One win is that it'll open a little higher than Avatar 2 (¥646 million / 354,000 admissions) to be Disney's biggest opener since 2019.

And compared to how it performed in the rest of Asia, not a *bad* opening. ¥5 billion ($36 million) is going to be pretty difficult, so I'd predict a finish closer to ¥4-4.5 billion ($29-32 million). And it looks like Japan will either be its #1 OS market or #2 behind the UK.

But... these small victories aside, this just isn't what Disney was needing in the market after 3.5 years of disappointments and bombs. If it can manage to hit ¥5 billion, that'd at least give them their first blockbuster since 2019, but that looks tough and would be a very small win. Indiana Jones is their last hope this year, and if it's not big, I think we'll need to wait until 2025 to see if Disney can turn itself around because 2024 looks bleak on paper for them.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:13 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
Corpse wrote:
But... these small victories aside, this just isn't what Disney was needing in the market after 3.5 years of disappointments and bombs. If it can manage to hit ¥5 billion, that'd at least give them their first blockbuster since 2019, but that looks tough and would be a very small win. Indiana Jones is their last hope this year, and if it's not big, I think we'll need to wait until 2025 to see if Disney can turn itself around because 2024 looks bleak on paper for them.

Ha, so you have no faith in Wish? Seem like the most traditionally looking Disney animated movie in quite a while.


Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:36 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Numbers (06/02-04); Charts Update
No, because it just seems like audiences have abandoned Disney at the theaters in Japan. A huge portion appear perfectly content just waiting for them on Disney+. I don't think it's much of a question anymore. If this went on for one or two years you could maybe write it off as some pandemic phenomenon (even though every other studio, every single one, had already recovered come 2021, and most of them have achieved studio records of some kind since), but going 3.5 years of this?

It's clearly a problem exclusive to Disney, and it's no coincidence, I don't think, that they're the only studio that has a streaming presence in the market. Universal and Paramount don't need to worry about this because Toho distributes their films so they don't go streaming. And Warner Bros. does its own thing in Japan and HBO Max isn't available. It's just a Disney problem.

And if Moana just barely got to ¥5 billion (¥5.17 billion), I highly doubt Wish will be able to do it.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jun 10, 2023 10:45 am
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