Thanks a lot ! And do you know how much admissions made Avengers Endgame for its first weekend ? and its first 3 days ?

Tweet from FranSpeech of 01/09 holiday Monday BO in Japan:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Franspeech/s ... 6691304450

Japan BO
Wknd Jan.9 (Est)

1 THE FIRST SLAM DUNK $1.2m/$57.92m
2 #Suzume $1m /$86.6m
3 #AvatarTheWayOfTheWater $680k/$23.5m
4 #DetectiveConanTV26 $450k/ $1.95m
5 Dr.Coto's Clinic $380k/$14.45m
11 #OnePieceFilmRed   $140k/$139.04m/¥19.06B

Any updates on the projections for this?

According to Crunchyroll headline here: "One Piece Film Red Anime Movie Sails Past 19 Billion Yen at JP Box Office"
https://www.crunchyroll.com/anime-news/ ... box-office

Didn't really consider this at first but you're right, the DS compilation/special thing will kill A2's run as soon as it takes the IMAX screens. 5b was always hard but almost certainly not going to happen with that in mind.

Those advance sales can't really be tracked, you'll have to wait until the week of release for some reasonable PS info, usually on either tue or wed morning iirc, though this being kny, even with all the asterisks on this not being a real film, chains might want to get ahead and open them a little earlier (sun/mon) like they did with slam dunk so that it doesn't clog their servers in case it opens big regardless

Also some important changes to the Japanese Box Office. It seems it has switched from a 2-day to 3-day OW which will make things interesting but for some films like Marvel movies for example there legs will even even worse like less than 3X for example b/c if the 3-day system was used before like for example both the recent Thor and Black Panther movies in 2022 had legs that would only be 2X for the 3-day OW. Ouch and I bet A lot of MCU films will have a 2X thing since they will have this 3-day weekend thing from now on.

I'm trying to look into that now. For an official press release or something. I see that Fri-Sun (01/06-08) was reported as the weekend grosses on kogyotsushin. Friday, unless for an opener, has never been reported in the past to my knowledge.

I wouldn't be against this... but it absolutely destroys trying to compare any weekends beginning now to any in the past. Films starting from this weekend on will have a clear unfair advantage when placing them on any of the Biggest 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc., weekend charts, for example, and we won't be able to include them on any of the past multiplier charts either.

I think we'll have to create all new charts beginning this weekend if it's true. 2023-present.

It also puts family-skewing films at a major disadvantage when comparing weekends. Friday is a weekday, it's weaker than Monday and Wednesday, and as such, family films do very poorly on Fridays. So, comparing their weekends (if they become Fri.-Sun.) to other films isn't fair. Granted, family films are on the decline and have a bleak future in Japan, so it'll impact fewer and fewer, but the next couple years make it hard to compare their weekends to other films.

So, question becomes, if Japan has moved to Fri.-Sun (3-Day Weekends), do we start over on a clean slate with any chart dealing with weekend grosses? From Biggest Opening Weekends, Biggest Xth Weekends, to Biggest [Insert Month] Weekends, Biggest Aggregated Weekends, Highest Multipliers, and so on and so on.

Past-2022
2023-Present

You could add them to the same old charts but with an asterisk or some other way of indicating it is different. I would be fine with that as long as it was clearly marked. Rather than having two lists for every record. It would be small to begin with but in time it will be too much and complicated.

Despite Top Gun Maverick barely being in theaters and no longer tracked officially, it seems that kogyotsushin is still tracking it, and Towa may probably wait for Oscar Nominations and a possible win to get maybe bigger numbers to surpass Last Samurai as Tom Cruise biggest hit in Japan.

Yes, I expect final-final-final numbers for it in both Japan and the U.S. later this year after any re-releases and Oscar hoopla.

Quoting this as a possible solution. Would like to hear more opinions, unless everyone also agrees with this.

Question being: IF* Japan has moved to 3-Day Weekends (Fri-Sun), how should we place films moving forward on any charts related to weekend grosses.

*Still waiting to see what's reported later this evening since Monday (holiday) delayed the full results to today.

Don't you have a 3 day opening list compiled already?

Make this the basis for a new all-time list and hide the 2 day list in the spoiler tag...

EDIT:

The 2 day list isn't perfect either as older movies include previews

Opening list, yeah. The biggest thing for me is non-opening weekends though. Like Biggest Second, Third, Tenth, Twentieth, etc.

Like, Slam Dunk and Suzume are going to rank on the Biggest 6th and 9th Weekend Charts now because of this. Suzume was going to be on the 9th I believe regardless, but its rank will be much, much higher now with a third day included.

I see...

Well the same... If KJ is still around in 20 years - the list will be a long list as well...

It's just the dawn of a new era...

It's both exciting (change!), but also argh (charts being comparable for 30+ years now needing asterisks and such).

And the all-time multiplier list (as it is) is essentially set in stone now, at least the top 10 or so. That's going to be nigh impossible to crack I think.

I had to go through several changes on my site as well...

There was the switch from screens to theaters, the switch from including previews to excluding them and before the online age there was the switch from Friday opening day to Thursday opening day and of course pre and post re-unification...

Change is just natural...

and that's what *s are made for...

Multiple sources suggest a change from 2-day to 3-day weekends to kick of 2023. The only one that makes it not clear is bunkatsushin reporting the weekend seating share as 2-day (01/07-08) still, but everything involving grosses/admissions has been 01/06-08.

Just waiting for one final source to make 100% certain it wasn't some holiday mistake that everyone ran with from the original reporting.

Japan is getting closer to the U.S.

Alright, confirmed now. Will work on Weekend Actuals and updates here later.

Weekend Actuals (01/06-08)
01 (01) ¥480,867,330 ($3.65 million), +33%, ¥7,514,280,980 ($56.3 million), The First Slam Dunk (Toei) WK6
02 (02) ¥375,243,090 ($2.85 million), +53%, ¥11,988,491,840 ($87.2 million), Suzume (Toho) WK9
03 (03) ¥279,447,680 ($2.12 million), +14%, ¥3,044,823,210 ($23.2 million), Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney) WK4
04 (---) ¥191,786,610 ($1.46 million), 0, ¥191,786,680 ($1.5 million), Detective Conan: Ai Habara's Story -Jet-Black Mystery Train (Toho) NEW
05 (04) ¥162,646,330 ($1.23 million), +82%, ¥1,812,018,140 ($13.8 million), Dr. Coto's Clinic (Toho) WK4
06 (05) ¥116,364,400 ($883,000), +68%, ¥1,693,088,910 ($12.9 million), Fragments of the Last Will (Toho) WK5
07 (06) ¥x87,912,440 ($667,000), +67%, ¥619,441,320 ($4.7 million), Lonely Castle in the Mirror (Shochiku) WK3
08 (---) ¥x70,200,120 ($533,000), 0, ¥x70,200,120 ($0.5 million), Emergency Declaration (KlockWorx) NEW
09 (---) ¥x57,617,220 ($437,000), 0, ¥x57,617,220 ($0.4 million), We Make Antiques! Osaka Dreams (Gaga) NEW
10 (08) ¥x54,465,600 ($413,000), +38%%, ¥597,691,710 ($4.5 million), Black Night Parade (Shochiku) WK3

So, first ever weekend that is 3-days! (At least on record and/or known.) Japan has now moved from 2-Day OWs to 3-Day OWs to kickoff 2023. That's why the increases are so large, although everything except for Avatar 2 would have been up over the 2-day as well due to the strength of the last weekend of a major holiday period + holiday Monday bump.

I'll keep the analysis relatively short, but note that the totals that you'll see in the Top Grossing Films of 2023 here soon will be AS OF MONDAY (01/09) since it was a holiday.

The First Slam Dunk opened higher than I believe many expected, and since then, it's displayed better legs than I believe many have expected as well. This is its 6th-consecutive weekend atop the box-office, and since it doesn't appear to be skewing young, it'll probably do well enough post-holidays too. I still don't think it can reach ¥10 billion without a major push (giveaways) by Toei, but the likelihood it can reach ¥9 billion now are quite good.

Suzume played very well over the holiday period as expected, it's just a shame it was released nearly two months before it. Still, it's done very well, and will gross north of ¥13 billion and very likely exceed 10 million admissions (up to 9,129,927 as of Monday). The question becomes will it outgross Top Gun: Maverick and Jujutsu Kaisen 0 to become the second highest-grossing film of 2022. Unfortunately, we'll likely need to wait many weeks (maybe months) before we know as it'll probably finish right around both films.

Avatar: The Way of Water wasn't able to recover from its disappointing opening weekend, and if not for the change to 3-day weekends, would have been the only film in the Top 10 to actually decrease this weekend. Its major underperformance is just due to how Japan's market has change quite drastically for Hollywood over the past 10-15 years, as well as moviegoers likely more than willing to just wait for Disney+ given Disney's horrific status in the market now. Good news? It's Disney's highest grossing film since 2019 at least... I'm expecting a finish just above ¥4 billion ($30 million+) and 2.2 million admissions or so. That'll be a ~75% drop in revenue, and 78% decline in admissions (from the original run), which puts it in contention with films like The Hobbit and Alice 2 for biggest bombs.

Detective Conan: Ai Habara's Story - Jet-Black Mystery Train is a compilation film that will lead into the new film in April. Its debut is 51% higher than the OW of the last compilation film from 2021 (Scarlet Alibi), and 23% below that one's 3-day total. I don't know if we can directly compare 3-day OW now to 3-day Totals from the past yet, so a little tricky to say how "good" this is. But it's certainly not bad in either case.

Dr. Coto's Clinic continues to do well and will exceed ¥2 billion with no trouble. Nothing super exciting, but these sorts of totals help keep the box office healthy. Similar case for Fragments of the Last Will, though I'm not certain of its chances of ¥2 billion yet (it'll be close).

Top Opening Weekends: 2023
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.296 billion ($9.6 million) / 846,687 [418] - The First Slam Dunk (Toei)
¥1 billion ↨
¥500 million ↨
¥477.0 million ($3.5 million) / 259,000 [1,466] - Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney)
¥320.0 million ($2.4 million) / 235,000 [347] - Dr. Coto's Clinic (Toho)
¥300 million ↨
¥242.6 million ($1.8 million) / 178,000 [352] - Fragments of the Last Will (Toho)
¥200 million ↨
¥197.1 million ($1.5 million) / 146,000 [336] - Phases of the Moon (Shochiku)
¥191.8 million ($1.5 million) / 136,000 [180] - Detective Conan: Ai Habara's Story - Jet-Black Mystery Train (Toho)
¥165.4 million ($1.2 million) / 128,000 [327] - Black Night Parade (Toho)
¥115.1 million ($0.9 million) / 77,000 [762] - Black Adam (Warner Bros.)
¥101.3 million ($0.8 million) / 80,000 [339] - Kamen Rider Geats Revice: Battle Royale (Toei)
¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)


**************


Top Opening Weekends: 2022 (FINAL)

Top Grossing Films: 2023
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥7.69 billion ($57.6 million) / 5.27 million [38] - The First Slam Dunk (Toei)
¥5 billion ↨
¥3.15 billion ($24.0 million) / 1.74 million [25] - Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney)
¥3 billion ↨
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.87 billion ($14.2 million) / 1.43 million [25] - Dr. Coto's Clinic (Toho)
¥1.74 billion ($13.2 million) / 1.32 million [32] - Fragments of the Last Will (Toho)
¥1.33 billion ($9.9 million) / 1.00 million [46] - That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime: Scarlet Bond (Bandai Namco Arts)
¥1.19 billion ($8.8 million) / 0.88 million [39] - Phases of the Moon (Shochiku)
¥1 billion ↑
¥619.4 million ($4.7 million) / 0.52 million [17] - Lonely Castle in the Mirror (Shochiku)
¥617.0 million ($4.6 million) / 0.50 million [18] - Black Night Parade (Shochiku)
¥500 million ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)


**********


Top Grossing Films: 2022 - ONGOING (3 Films Still Playing / Being Tracked)

Feels like something that should've happened a decade ago when even local films started moving towards friday releases honestly, now it's somewhat annoying because so many records are already set on the old method. Plus considering a lot of countries kept their weekend format instead of transitioning to 3days, there wasn't really a need for change at this point imho.

I assume this will push studios that still do saturday releases to transition to friday now so their openings aren't underreported.