Uh, yeah I totally brainfarted on that one (I was looking at 28% of the mimorin number instead of thinking 28% of what the total would be...lol, wopsies), 910k makes more sense especially since toho doesn't favor toei releases so aeon having a slightly bigger % (32% in this case) would make sense.

In revenue: 2020 recorded the Biggest OD Ever (Demon Slayer), and 2021 recorded the second Biggest OD Ever (Jujutsu Kaisen). It'd be something if 2022 records the third Biggest OD Ever with One Piece this weekend (Top 5 looks almost certain, I think).

In admissions: 2020 recorded the Biggest OD Ever (Demon Slayer), and 2021 recorded the third Biggest OD Ever (Jujutsu Kaisen). The first Yo-Kai Watch movie is second here. This will be harder for One Piece to crack, and I don't expect it too. Film Z did 600,000 admissions on its OD (thankfully it was reported, as it broke the OD admissions record for a local film at the time), which now ranks as the 5th highest known OD. So, if it beats Film Z's OD admissions, it'll at least crack the Top 5.

I have a chart of Biggest Single Days in Admissions I'll repost in a minute. Next to the film, you can see what day it was, such as Opening Day or First Sunday, etc., so you can compare just the ODs on the list if you want.

Biggest All-Time Single-Days (Admissions) [1998-]

1,270,234 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Saturday)
1,239,752 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Sunday)
1,157,654 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Sunday)
1,140,390 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Sunday, Discount Day)
1,115,182 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Saturday)
910,507 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Friday, Opening Day)
~900,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Tuesday, Holiday)
887,893 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Saturday)
~800,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (First Saturday, Opening Day)
~790,000 - Frozen II (Second Sunday, Discount Day)
772,224 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (First Friday, Opening Day)
~690,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (First Saturday, Opening Day, Discount Day)
~685,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (First Sunday)
667,179 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Fourth Sunday)
628,614 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Fourth Saturday)
626,110 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (First Saturday)
~625,000 - Frozen II (First Saturday)
~625,000 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (First Saturday)
~620,000 - Toy Story 4 (First Sunday)
611,418 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Fifth Saturday)
~605,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Monday)
600,000 - One Piece Film Z (First Saturday, Opening Day)
~600,000 - Toy Story 4 (First Monday, Holiday)
~590,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (First Sunday)
~585,000 - Frozen II (First Sunday)
~580,000 - Howl's Moving Castle (First Saturday, Opening Day)
~580,000 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (First Sunday)
571,109 - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (First Sunday)
~560,000 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (First Saturday)
~560,000 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (First Saturday)
~555,000 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (First Saturday)
550,891 - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (First Saturday)
~550,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Second Sunday)
~545,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Monday)
540,000 - One Piece Film Z (First Sunday)
~540,000 - Frozen (Eighth Monday, Holiday)
535,986 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Fifth Saturday)
~535,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Second Saturday)
~525,000 - Howl's Moving Castle (First Sunday)
~525,000 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Second Sunday)
520,000 - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (First Monday, Opening Day)
~515,000 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (First Sunday)
~510,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (First Sunday)
~510,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Friday)
509,719 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (First Sunday)
~505,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Wednesday)
502,578 - Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween (First Saturday)
~500,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (First Saturday)
~500,000 - Rookies (First Saturday, Opening Day)

~ Estimate.

600,000 (Film Z, the 5th Biggest OD) is probably the goal to beat. It honestly looks like it will, and fingers crossed it manages to come in closer to 700,000.

I also highlighted all the ODs on the list to make them easier to find.

That's a hell of a presales number.

I was expecting 150,000+ with a chance at 200,000+, so it's pretty incredible. Demon Slayer aside (of course), it's just behind JJK0's OD and Yo-Kai Watch's OD. And being higher than Frozen II and JJK0's first Saturdays is excellent. It's also 68% higher than Film Gold (I think presales will account for more of its weekend admissions for Red versus Gold, so I'm a *little* cautious about making that a direct comparison right now).

With this data, and from checking a ton of theaters prior to opening, its chances at a ¥1.5 billion+ / 1 million admissions+ opening weekend are looking really good right now.

Biggest August Opening Weekends (1998-):

---~¥1.5 billion ($11/12 million) / ~1,000,000+ - One Piece Film Red (2022) *Rough Projection*
01. ¥930.0 million ($9.2 million) / 688,079 - Your Name. (2016)
02. ¥845.1 million ($6.8 million) / 544,759 - Jurassic World (2015)
03. ¥832.5 million ($7.7 million) / 622,931 - Hancock (2008)
04. ¥806.0 million ($7.6 million) / 598,000 - One Piece: Stampede (2019)
05. ¥805.0 million ($6.7 million) / 608,000 - Jurassic Park III (2001)
06. ¥767.2 million ($7.5 million) / 554,991 - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
07. ¥766.3 million ($7.1 million) / 596,640 - The Mummy 3: The Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (2008)
08. ¥728.7 million ($6.8 million) / 497,000 - The Lion King (2019)
09. ¥644.5 million ($5.7 million) / 455,000 - The Suspect: Muroi Shinji (2005)
10. ¥639.2 million ($5.7 million) / 450,315 - Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2018)
11. ¥631.4 million ($5.3 million) / 477,030 - Transformers (2007)
12. ¥625.6 million ($5.8 million) / 465,934 - 20th Century Boys - Chapter 1: Beginning of the End (2008)
13. ¥603.5 million ($4.9 million) / 466,953 - Attack on Titan - Part 1 (2015)
14. ¥592.2 million ($5.8 million) / 433,346 - Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno (2014)
15. ¥573.5 million ($4.6 million) / 427,281 - Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (2015)
16. ¥546.0 million ($4.4 million) / 449,055 - Minions (2015)
17. ¥545.9 million ($4.5 million) / 410,089 - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)
18. ¥528.2 million ($4.8 million) / 385,058 - Gintama 2 (2018)
19. ¥504.0 million ($4.7 million) / 331,000 - Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (2019)
20. ¥500.9 million ($6.4 million) / 326,109 - The Avengers (2012)
21. ¥498.6 million ($4.1 million) / 362,000 - Ocean's Thirteen (2007)
22. ¥485.3 million ($4.7 million) / 302,992 - Transformers: Age of Extinction (2014)
23. ¥477.5 million ($5.0 million) / 399,779 - Kamen Rider Decade: All Riders vs. Dai-Shocker (2009)
24. ¥474.9 million ($4.5 million) / 274,017 - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel III - Spring Song (2020)
25. ¥467.4 million ($4.6 million) / 370,046 - The Secret Life of Pets (2016)
26. ¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) / 298,898 - Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
27. ¥422.1 million ($3.8 million) / 331,697 - Incredibles 2 (2018)
28. ¥415.8 million ($3.8 million) / 317,807 - Killing for the Prosecutors (2018)
29. ¥413.2 million ($3.9 million) / 334,000 - Doraemon: Nobita's New Dinosaur (2020)
30. ¥409.6 million ($3.3 million) / 305,396 - Boruto: Naruto the Movie (2015)

Note: Not a prediction yet, just a rough projection to have this ready for later. Needless to say though, it's going to crush this record, even if it's massively frontloaded and falls big on Sunday.

One Piece: Stampede would have taken this record back in 2019 if it hadn't opened on a Friday, but at least it's being broken this year (and by what will be, presumably, end up being a much higher margin).

So One Piece movies used to suffer from diminishing returns since the second one? Is that why after they got low enough they got Oda involved?

Corpse, presales on mimorin are usually just usuals - AEON right? So I'm a bit confused as to why the seats counts on the mimorin presales have been so low since it lost AEON (not just OP, in general). Like films are only getting a little over half of what mimorin's seat count posts indicate on the presales ones.

EDIT: actually looking back I think seat counts were much lower on PS than usuals - aeon before it broke too, but not sure when it started. I definitely remember this not being the case like a year back. huh.

OP RED looks about on par with JJK OD at 10AM throwing in an AEON estimate.

Yeah, the series began to decline (at the box office, anyway) until 2009 when it exploded on all fronts. The manga was in its major arc that caused sales to soar to huge heights for several years (sold nearly 100m copies between 2010-2012), the anime was entering that same arc, and then Oda joined the production of Strong World which ended up being canon (of sorts). Strong World only played on 190 screens, yet delivered a massive opening and easily outgrossed every past film.

And since then, all the One Piece films have involved Oda and have been much higher quality. One Piece established itself around that time (2009/2010) to be the juggernaut it still is today. The manga's worldwide circulation figures broke 516 million (416m from Japan alone) this week with the release of the latest volume.

I see what you mean, and I'm not sure, honestly. I've been out of the loop since Aeon has been missing from the counts. I wasn't really paying attention because I was on vacation right when it happened (or thereabouts), and haven't really had the time to see what has changed regarding estimating and such without them.

I'd love to just be able to compare its admissions today to films from the past. But I suppose we'll just have to use a rough estimate to account for Aeon. Are you taking the usuals now and multiplying it by like 1.3?

And yes, Saturday is looking massive and it's not even 11am yet. It has sold an absolutely ridiculous 82.2% of ALL its seats since opening this morning so far (~7am-10:30am, 16.7% of its daily showings).

If it stays on track with JJK OD throughout the rest of the day, then 1.8b ow might be reachable I guess.

This 80% sell rate it's maintaining (currently 81.7% as of 10:57am, 18.8% of its showings today) is bonkers. It's the highest we've ever seen outside of Demon Slayer and Yo-Kai Watch (which hold the gold and bronze for biggest OWs in admissions, Yo-Kai Watch being like 2,000 shy of silver).

It doesn't have as many seats as Demon Slayer, or some of the other major openers like Jujutsu Kaisen or Frozen II, but it still has a ton (sixth or seventh highest recorded at the usual locations if the 910k is accurate).

I don't see how it can maintain anywhere near 80% as the day goes on, but if it "just" does two-thirds (~65-70%), then I assume it'll break 700,000 admissions for the day, if not 800,000. Coming near the OWs of the past films in one day sounds crazy though, so we'll see. So far, so good though.

Corpse, how safe can we say ¥1B OD, or will it be short off, like ¥800M-¥900M OD??

I'd say it's practically locked up, or at least very likely right now. Its avg. ticket price will be higher than past films since it has IMAX for the first time, and 4DX/MX4D is more popular now, so I'm guessing it can do it with around 700,000 admissions. Too early to call for now, but I think it's on track for it. I would hope Toei makes an announcement tomorrow if it does. Weekend announcements are rare, but do happen sometimes when mega milestones occur.

And if it does it, it'll be only the third film to ever achieve an OD above ¥1 billion (interestingly, all three times would be from 2020-2022, one film each year). It'd also be just the fourth film to sell 700,000+ admissions on its OD if it manages that.

Sell-rate back to 82% (11:17am, 20.9% of showings).

Hurrayyyyyyyyyyy

Big win for Toei!

A third of the way through the day, and it's sold 81.1% of its available seating at the usual locations (minus Aeon).

If it reaches 8/9pm and is still at ~80% capacity for the day, it should remain at/above two-thirds when the late night shows bring that down.

I hope to see this come true when I get up in the morning.

100,000 > 145,000 > 180,000 > 210,000 > 245,000 > 290,000 > 335,000 - ~ One Piece : RED (+AEON est.)

Using similar AEON% as stampede/gold. Could be a bit higher though since you mentioned AEON performs a bit better during this time of year.

Still at 81.2% capacity as of 7 pm in the usual locations.

Hmmm, I hadn't noticed before but looking twice I guess total seats is bugged so real occupancy shall be lower. The number is too low, films shouldn't have 40-35% left at 19:50.


If you look at top5 last sat as of 19:00,


1. JWD - 78% of total seats

2. Kingdom 2 - 79% of total seats

3. Minions 2 - 86% of total seats

4. Even if the Love Disappears From the World Tonight - 79% of total seats

5. Top Gun: Maverick - 77% of total seats


But here we have today's, as of 19:50,

1. OP Red - 65%

2. JWD - 62%

3. Minions 2 - 68%

4. Kingdom 2 - 61%

5. Even if the Love Disappears From the World Tonight - 65%


No way, it's bugged. Considering calcs from the 5ch for the AEON seating the 610k that should be the total for today is probably correct, but the current seats the system is showing are probably not. Just throwing a guess but something like


332,724 sold / ~ 488,000 (79% of seats for the day, 68% occupancy)


makes more sense.

Good observation. The folks at 5ch assumed it was United Cinemas going down, and they were right.

Here are the sales as of 19:00 broken down by chain:

TOHO 156,755/191,893
KINEZO 57,818/70,783
109 39,528/46,430
MOVIX 68,956/87,891
UNITED 2,711/3,947

So, United hasn't been counted since early in the day/morning. United is usually fourth in terms of seating. Not just its seating but its sales also, meaning One Piece (and the rest) is doing even better than we're seeing.

Someone also shared something I haven't seen before. They went to reserve a seat at Aeon during the day, but was met with a waiting period. I've seen it happen when reservations go live and some hours afterward, but not in the middle of the day when a film is playing (Demon Slayer aside, when it broke Aeon for weeks). Don't want to read *too* much into this, but could suggest Aeon is doing big numbers if their servers couldn't keep up.

How big would we expect united to be? 9PM had some strangely big updates for so late, so I think that was blogger adding the sales. Looking at the updates which went

11k => 8k => 371

so I assume that was united being fixed.

I haven't tracked the individual chains in a long time, but I remember United was behind Movix. It was always (in terms of seating) Aeon > Toho > Movix > United > Kinezo > 109. So, I'd assume their sales/seating should be somewhere between Movix and Kinezo.

Checking their website, they have 41 locations (that's more than Movix now).

And yeah, there have been some big updates lately, which could indicate they've either corrected United's sales or are in the process. (Let's hope.)

Looks like 700k admissions overall are a given at this point, right?