If the numbers are still higher than mimorin is showing, then I think OD gross probably falls even with DS' admissions being higher since red opened with IMAX+4D+dolby on day 1. Obviously DS sat and sun remain on a different level.

The bolded part is really surprising to me. Is there any explanation that you think or just some random happenstance? I ask because, with Japan's shrinking population, you wouldn't expect these kind of records to fall regularly if at all, but if anything they've really ramped up these last couple of years. Lurking some of the earlier pages of this thread (from 2010-2015), there's several records that were seen as nearly unreachable (Spirited Away's gross and admissions numbers, Matrix Reloaded's opening weekend...) but they've all fallen in the past couple of years. Then you have franchises like Detective Conan, which after being relatively stable for more than a decade suddenly started booming around the second half of the 2010s.

Interestingly, other entertainment media like home video and manga DO experience the sort of declines that one would expect. Box office is just highly resilient.

I think so? Not having Aeon is annoying, and not being too sure if United has been fixed is also annoying. I think United was during the updates right before and after 9pm, but sometimes the 8pm-9pm updates can be really huge regardless since they are discounted showings (late-night specials).

Assuming Aeon is adding... IDK, 150,000-200,000 for the day? (they have more seats than Toho, but usually slightly trail Toho in sales) to what we have may end with today with the others (~410,000-ish), we'd have over 550,000-600,000+ at the usual locations... That's the second highest ever, behind Demon Slayer.

And using the multipliers we normally do to account for the rest of the market, it'd have around 725,000-800,000 (maybe a tad higher) overall. Just a very rough guess here though, and I want to try and remain a bit conservative.

The last two years has indeed been crazy for records being broken. And if they're not broken (as everything has to play second to Demon Slayer now), we're seeing films achieve huge feats / rankings otherwise. And it's not just these huge records either, there are a lot down the line that have been broken or achieving huge feats.

Average ticket prices have creeped up due to the popularity in premium formats, but the thing is, admissions are also keeping up and breaking records, too.

Demon Slayer basically broke the BO in 2020, and now lays claim to the Top 9 Biggest Single-Days Ever (in addition to hundreds of records). Since then, we've had films (like Jujutsu Kaisen 0) break similar long-standing records (some almost two decades old) that it did first. JJK0 was, arguably, riding Demon Slayer's success a bit, so can be explained to an extent.

One Piece though... to see it doing this much is pretty crazy since it's been around for 25 years and long established itself is something else. But it's a huge franchise, and if the vast majority of its audience does come out, it could do these numbers. I guess they just haven't come out in these sorts of numbers in the past. And I also believe its bringing in more casuals this time due to the music element (music, popular songs/soundtracks, etc., have a big impact in the market).

*If* United was added, which I'm inclined to believe because sales dying off this much and this suddenly after such strong updates at 9 is a bit suspect, using the same rate for AEON as stampede/gold (which should work well, since their release timings are pretty similar), I get ~550k usuals. I think this probably gets it high 1.1b to low 1.2b opening day in gross, though maybe it could tackle DS for highest OD if atp comes in really high.

If united wasn't added though I think it for sure takes OD. I guess we will know in about 2 hours if someone breaks it down again.

I keep trying to find something that we're missing because this is nuts.

Did Ado also cover Bink's Sake for the movie/album??? If you're not a One Piece fan, you may not know, but if so, talk about a win. Last song previewed.

It's still doing over 1,000 admissions with every update at the usuals after 11pm, so it may hit ~415,000+ with the overnight showings included (again, this excludes Aeon and maybe some of United).

If we say it sold two-thirds of its seats at Aeon (said to be 292k), that could be around 195,000. So, possibly looking at 600,000+ from the usual locations. If so, that'd be no less than 750,000 nationwide, but should be more around 800,000.

So yeah, ¥1.1-1.2 billion (which you're estimating, too, JustLurking) would be about right if these admission estimates add up. Third Biggest OD Ever for certain, probable Second Biggest OD Ever, and slight shot at Biggest OD Ever if the average ticket price is higher than expected (or if United still isn't included in the count).

Hope we get an update on United here in an hour or so, and better yet, something official from Toei tomorrow.

Ado's original song collaborations in the movie are also rising up the charts or now debuting. On iTunes, they currently rank #4, #7, #11, #15, #17, #30, and #36.

So, more evidence that while music doesn't always propel a film at the box-office, when it does, big things happen. There aren't many record-holders or just high ranking films that didn't have a hit song or two or soundtrack.

Actually since no other film increased their drop% from last week I guess United wasn't added. So I guess it probably is OD record. I think 1.3b sat => 800-900M sun for 2.1-2.2b weekend.

I can't wait for official numbers. It'd be so crazy if it broke the OD record. I mean, even if it "just" comes in above ¥1 billion (to be just the third film to do it), it'd be just as crazy, really.

Also,

Sunday is also looking very good. It won't match Saturday, of course (right...?), but it's basically sold up to ~70% or more of all its seats at all the key locations already. But since it sold ~80%+ of its all its seats on Saturday, there is understandable spillover.

So Sunday might hold on pretty well (maybe less than 20%).

Hello, Thank you for your reporting on Japanese box office.

I've seen some big One Piece accounts on Twitter say that the movie did 1.06 billion on its first day is that from official sources or predictions?

The day just ended (not all showings are actually over yet), so I'm assuming it's an estimate from an unofficial source. It'd be very weird for anything official to come out at midnight/1am.

I think they are from future!

Anyways, great debut. I wasn't expecting much. But, yes, I am surprised that it has done extremely well.... Just annoyed with Mimorin because of United &Aeon getting missed

Yeah, I figured. I don't know where they got that information.

I'm glad the movie is doing well, but the big question is how it will perform compared to previous OP movies. Reviews from publications and the public have been pretty divided from what I can see.

It's really a shame mimorin is so messed on a potential OD record tbh.

Yahoo is probably review bombing. It's review has fallen like from Avatar to Morbius. Filmark is stable while MW is lot better

Here's the final Saturday breakdown by chain:

TOHO 200,434/239,250 (83.8%)
KINEZO 74,363/90,077 (82.6%)
１０９ 49,083/57,255 (85.7%)
MOVIX 87,492/108,873 (80.4%)
UNITED 2,964/4,288 (69.1%) *Errored out early*

414,336/499,743 (82.9%!)

So yeah, United wasn't fixed. So with them messed up, this is like... 35-40% of the market or something. It should have somewhere around 100,000 seats or more (they had ~130,000 if you do the math from the earlier seating numbers) from United, so possibly missing up to 70,000-90,000 admissions from them if we use that ~70% they have from the few shows that were counted.

414,336 + ~70,000-90,000 (United) + ~200,000 (Aeon) = ~690,000-710,000 or so?

That'd put it well over 800,000 nationwide, and possibly as high as 900,000+.

It's such a mess on mimorin right now, what a shame. But I think it's a decently safe bet for OD record at this point.

Oh. Mimorin is still not ok?

@corpse do you have KNY and JJK chain wise breakup? Can compare with those.

I think it at the very least achieved the second biggest OD ever. The rough estimating makes it hard to say if it beat Demon Slayer's OD or not, but the fact it's up for discussion and may even be 50/50 with what we know is bonkers.

I'm also quite confident it's going to do ¥2 billion+ / 1.5 million+ admissions for the weekend without too much trouble due to how strong Sunday is looking. Might be closer to ¥2.2 billion / 1.7 million admissions or so.

I do not. It's pretty safely above JJK though since it's just 84,000 shy even without Aeon AND nearly all of United. Just adding United would probably let it practically match JJK, and with Aeon added (usually around Toho's numbers, or a bit higher or lower, depending on the film), it's way higher and somewhere around Demon Slayer.

Aeon had 292k seats versus Toho's 239k for One Piece. Toho likely had the higher sell-rate, they normally do, but the seat advantage Aeon has could have put them above Toho on this one, especially in the summer months (their locations are mostly in malls). If it's less, it's definitely not by much. Using Toho's 200k seems reasonable without knowing anything else (but again, chance it's a little more).

I think it's worth noting that OP: Red is opening with IMAX, 4D and Dolby, which were pretty much sold out nationwide as far as I can tell. KnY and JJK only opened with IMAX, so there's no way red isn't getting the higher atp and probably by a decent chunk. It might come below KnY OD in admissions, but I think it will definitely win out gross.

I went back and compared to Stampede&Gold ODs and got this.

Stampede:
AEON: 57,404 / 208,225
TOHO: 66,363 / 132,501

Gold:
AEON: 49,736 / 208,746
TOHO: 55,493 / 170,276

So I guess TOHO still gets the better total overall by 10-20% even when AEON gives waaay more seats (AEON gave a way higher % for stampede than for RED compared to toho with TOHO giving only 63% of AEON's seats vs 82% for RED). So...170kish for AEON based on these, I guess, but then with how busy the other chains were it's possible some of their business spilled into AEON's.