I have numbers for Demon Slayer after its reservations were online for at least 24 hours at Shinjuku and some other locations, so I'll be able to make some comparisons. I'll have to check the timestamps to make sure they're close comparisons.

EDIT: I just got through too, and a few more showings became marked (50%+) since you shared those.

Filling up pretty fast now that the queue has diluted, some shows are near sold out.



Also someone I know is telling me eva had a huge queue, trying to look for something on twitter rn but pretty hard to look for this stuff.

Actually friend just shared this with me, holy crap. Eva had 400k queue for OD shortly after midnight LOL.

Eva's queue makes sense for its OD. Delayed for almost a decade, super loyal (and large) fanbase, etc. Its opening day (a Monday) was one of the biggest single days of all-time. Excluding previews of the early/mid-00s films (where you can't really add them into a single day anyway since they were added to weekends), it was Top 5 all-time, I believe.

Also, Eva had a lower print of its first giveaway benefit. That can certainly create more of an upfront rush among the fans.

Toho Shibuya has reached ~50% capacity for Friday in about 90 minutes.

I'm going to wait awhile before adding any of this up though. (Would appreciate some help with Movix if you, or anyone, has the time. I can give you a list of locations I usually track.)

Agreed, makes sense that eva's super loyal fanbase would flood the sites once PS opened. Just wasn't sure if it actually happened since I wasnt putting that much attention into it back then.

Checking more locations shinjuku is by far the most impressive. Maybe spoke a bit too soon with DS comparisons, want to see where it stands tomorrow. Umeda&Ebina have nothing over 50%, same for the movix locations I checked, namba has a few but nothing close to what shinjuku is showing. Still strong though don't get me wrong, but shinjuku definitely seems like a big outlier here.

Toho Umeda is looking very impressive too. No marked showings yet, but they have it on their 733-screen, 480-screen, 475-screen, and a smaller 267-screen. But many of the showings are quickly approaching 50% capacity, so it's probably second only to Shinjuku.

True, Umeda looks quite good as well once you look deeper into the 733-screen shows. But Shinjuku looks insane ngl, I think I jumped the gun a bit before looking elsewhere because it's having sellouts like crazy which the other theaters arent really having on that level.

Well... the T-Joy theater in Shinjuku is certainly exploding!

https://tjoy.jp/shinjuku_wald9

Only 7 (half being after midnight) of their 24 showings on Friday are below 50% capacity, and many of the other 17 showings are nearing sold out status. Its 6 midnights are also close to selling out (the original 2 did).

It has a marked showing on Saturday, too.

Definitely impressive, I expected shinjuku theaters to have a popularity boost with the location and all but not like this. I feel like it might even outperform DS in these locations even if not elsewhere. Overall outlook still looks extremely strong though imho.

Looking excellent to me. Skewing stronger in the cities, and the busiest locations, but that's not unusual. Again though, it's almost mathematically impossible to match Demon Slayer's opening weekend just due to seating because DS sold more tickets than almost every film, all but 2 on record, even had seats available.

That said, its Friday *might* be able to challenge it. Since the 24th is a special date in the story, it's looking quite possible that Friday will be its biggest single-day this weekend. Especially since it has some midnights (which are going to be all sold out) to add to that which Demon Slayer didn't have. Demon Slayer's OD/Friday was the biggest single-day of all-time, but its Saturday and Sunday were even bigger. (Its second Saturday and Sunday, and one of its holiday weekdays, were even higher than its previous record-breaking OD...) So its Friday *might* be within reach in this situation.

Demon Slayer is the only film to ever have a single-day above ¥1 billion (which it did numerous times...), but Jujutsu Kaisen could become the second. And second biggest 3-day weekend (2-day is a bit unreadable right now since Friday is going to be the preferred date here, so need to wait for Friday to fill-up enough/sellout first), while not guaranteed yet of course, is looking better and better.

I took a better look at some locations, and for example namba has already sold 50% of DS OD PS after 24h on friday. But if you add the midnights it's already 68% which is incredible in just a few hours (granted very few theaters are doing midnights). Shinjuku is already up there if you add midnights.

If the rural locations don't fall too far behind it's actually not impossible for it to come close to DS OD. I'll wait and see where it stands tomorrow now though.

Its sat looks a lot slower overall, so I agree it might be possible it doesnt get a boost on sat. Though it is worth considering that *if* it does beat DS on friday, that'd be huge news, which could benefit JJK over the weekend. There's also the fact that it has some primetime broadcasts today, which could boost its PS further and take it even closer. I don't think this'll happen, but it's not completely out of the question either. The 3-day and OD for this movie will be a beast either way.

Beating Demon Slayer's OD (which ended up only being its 7th biggest single-day, despite it being a new record until it beat itself 6 more times...) would create headlines and expose it to potential moviegoers (non-fans).

One important thing to remember too is that Jujutsu Kaisen is a slightly newer franchise. It's only been out for for 3.5 years versus the 4.5 years Demon Slayer had been out when its movie was released last year. Demon Slayer's anime (season one) had concluded about a year prior to the release of of the movie too, allowing more time for the general public to watch it. Season one of Jujutsu Kaisen ended back in March, just 9 months ago in comparison.

So it's not quite an apple-to-apple comparison. Close as both are newer WSJ series that managed to breakout big, but not quite. Demon Slayer (manga) had also concluded a few months before the movie was released and only one more volume was left to release. Jujutsu Kaisen (manga) is still ongoing, and should be for a few more years at least. And their settings are quite opposite, too, DS set in the past a little over 100 years ago, while JJK is modern and is set in the present time.

Might also be worth noting that Demon Slayer's movie was a sequel to season one of the anime, whereas the Jujutsu Kaisen movie is a prequel to the anime. Both canon, directly adapting chapters in the series, but on the opposite ends of the spectrum. The JJK movie is certainly worth watching to better understand the upcoming arc in the anime and to be introduced to a major character(s) that'll be featured in the anime soon, but it's not as necessary to continue the story/anime as the Demon Slayer movie was (or would have been if half of season two of the anime didn't also adapt the Mugen Train Arc!).

So, there are many similarities, but certainly enough differences that set them apart so that a direct comparison is still pretty difficult.

True. There's also no need to watch anything prior to get into JJK 0, since the volume itself was originally a miniseries from GIGA, running before the actual series even started. So technically speaking, it's pretty newbie friendly. You don't have to watch it to understand the next few arcs (though you'll certainly feel dizzy quite a few times if you haven't, as the series assumes you read it in quite a few moments), but you can also use it as your gateway into the series.

Also - I think even with all these things stacked up for it (midnight shows, schools closing for christmas, and the date matching that of the events in the movie), taking OD from DS still looks pretty low chance to me. Especially if we're assuming that the rural areas will go to DS looking at distribution, like you said, it would need to solidly beat it in those big theaters. And while I think it will definitely beat it in some locations (i.e. shinjuku), even just matching, let alone beating, in a lot of big locations is looking pretty hard for it. And even in those shinjuku locations where it will definitely beat it, it can't really beat it by a lot to make a big difference because... there really isn't that much room to beat it by a lot, lol.

One thing I'm wondering about, though - Aeon hasn't even gone up yet (actually no aeon theater even has their slate up from what I can tell), but wouldn't it have the upper hand distribution wise here, considering - iirc - aeon stayed under 50% seat restrictions when DS opened?

Still, the fact that it's even a possibility is quite crazy by itself. And if it does beat it, though I'm quite doubting it, the headlines that'd generate would probably explode it even further.

Aeon is interesting. It was impossible to check them early on (and even at many points in the first couple weeks) for Demon Slayer because their site constantly crashed. I remember it was down for almost 3 days straight at one point due to the traffic. For being owned by such a large company, you'd think their servers (or whatever caused the significant problems) would be better...

But yes. Aeon Cinemas was the only chain that remained at 50% capacity when everyone else went back to 100% last year for Demon Slayer. Aeon offset this though by having huge amounts of showings and opening early/staying open later, etc. Could it have done even more if it had the same amount of showings and the 100% rate? Perhaps. So... there technically is some room for a bigger opening weekend in the future, but it's an incredibly small chance. The 50% capacity was also a possible benefit for Aeon last year, too, as the go-to chain for the more COVID cautious moviegoers. So there's that to consider as well, especially since Demon Slayer appealed strongly towards families and senior citizens. Would they have still gone at 100% capacity? Hard to say with certainty.

Aeon has tweeted their schedule for specific locations (example below). It seems they're waiting until midnight tonight (Tuesday) to go live with reservations. Perhaps this was a decision made to help prevent their servers from crashing like with Demon Slayer last year by going up a day later than everyone else? I'd say this was stupid since they're missing out on the initial demand, but if their servers would crash, they'd be missing out anyway, and potentially on more if they were down for a day or more. So it might be the best decision if they didn't fix their servers beforehand.

Weekend Actuals (12/18-19)
01 (---) ¥300,284,860 ($2.64 million), 0, ¥439,105,550 ($3.9 million), The Matrix Resurrections (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (01) ¥204,800,650 ($1.80 million), -40%, ¥946,678,000 ($8.3 million), Your Turn to Kill (Toho)
03 (03) ¥154,290,530 ($1.36 million), -35%, ¥3,555,875,440 ($31.3 million), Arashi Anniversary Tour 5x20 FILM "Record of Memories" (Shochiku) WK4
04 (---) ¥145,578,880 ($1.28 million), 0, ¥162,656,380 ($1.4 million), The Boss Baby: The Family Business (Toho-Towa, Gaga) NEW
05 (02) ¥129,041,770 ($1.14 million), -48%, ¥1,413,197,080 ($12.4 million), Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) WK3
06 (---) ¥124,691,960 ($1.10 million), 0, ¥164,494,320 ($1.4 million), Kamen Rider: Beyond Generations (Toei) NEW
07 (04) ¥x51,443,350 ($453,000), -41%, ¥608,956,280 ($5.3 million), Encanto (Disney) WK4
08 (05) ¥x35,798,320 ($315,000), -33%, ¥1,075,601,020 ($9.5 million), Sumikko Gurashi: The Magical Child of the Blue Moonlit Night (Asmik Ace) WK7
09 (06) ¥x29,394,560 ($259,000), -34%, ¥1,594,152,550 ($14.1 million), And, the Baton Was Passed (Warner Bros.) WK8
10 (07) ¥x21,103,800 ($186,000), -51%, ¥123,609,880 ($1.1 million), Last Night in Soho (Parco) WK2

Going to keep the analysis a bit brief this week:

>The Matrix Resurrections debuted atop the box-office, but... pretty unspectacularly. I don't want to call it a bomb, but it easily could be. The fourth film in the franchise sold 186,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 822 screens, and 276,239 admissions over the 3-day. This is, well... almost 85% lower than the third film and 88% lower than the second film. That's slightly higher than the 81% (If I remember right) that the Hobbit trilogy of films declined from The Lord of the Rings.

Its seating is expected to be cut by up to 70% or more this upcoming weekend, so I'm questioning its legs despite what is generally a very strong release date. It'll be aiming for a total between ¥2-2.5 billion ($20/25 million), but it might miss ¥2 billion.

>Your Turn To Kill had a rough second weekend hold, but thanks to very good weekdays, is already close to exceeding the ¥1 billion milestone. Should be able to exceed ¥2 billion (~$20 million) without much trouble.

>The Boss Baby: The Family Business had a pretty muted opening weekend, although it is higher than Disney's Encanto from last month. (I don't mean to constantly bash Disney. It's just pretty shocking how awful they're performing in Japan now.) It sold 117,000 admissions over the weekend on 373 screens, and 130,761 admissions over the 3-day. I think legs will be pretty strong here for lack of family/younger-skewing content this holiday, so I'm expecting a total around ¥1.5 billion ($13/14 million). This is over a 50% decline from the original, but the original was DWA's highest grossing film ever in Japan.

>Venom: Let There Be Carnage is having pretty atrocious legs following its quite good opening weekend (5% above the first film). As a result, it's probably not going to reach ¥2 billion, much less outgross the original now.

>Arashi Anniversary Tour 5x20 FILM "Record of Memories" managed a good enough hold, but it would have likely been better had Dolby Cinema not switched it out with The Matrix 4 this weekend. I'm assuming it'll get them back this upcoming week. It should be on track to reach about ¥4.5 billion ($40 million).

Corpse, actually aeon cinemas went live with their reservations last midnight(21/12) itself. I did check reservations in some of their theatres.

I haven't come across one Aeon location that has online reservations up yet. Which ones did you check?

You may check Theatus Chofu(one of their theatres in Tokyo).
https://cinema.aeoncinema.com/wm/app?JobID=pc.1.selectDate&dt=20211224&siteID=81084&performanceID=&isSpecial=&isReserved=&displayID=SP0401&appli=&indexFlag=true&BaseJobID=&pageID=sp0004&theaterID=81084&selectedSiteId=81084

It's that part about Aeon having a lot more availability than they did when DS opened in terms of seats that makes me think JJK has a shot on friday. Even if Aeon were to start earlier for DS and give it more screens, it's hard to think it'd be on par with what they can give JJK when it can double the seats at any screen, and the distribution at toho/movix locations is already not much behind DS.

A day early for comparisons since this is only after 20 instead of 45h, but I had a bit of free time so I ran a scraper on movix to see how it looked in comparison. Might try to do the same for toho later if I can but that looked a bit trickier with how the site is coded. Also just ask if you have some more locations you want.

Sendai: 1141
Saitama: 3672
Kawaguchi: 1263
Misato: 472
Isesaki: 1050
Sakai: 398
Shunan: 573

Couldn't find hiyoshizu. A lot further away in these locations compared to big toho ones (some like namba&umeda are almost matching if you add midnight shows and shinjuku is crazy). Definitely looks like it skews way more towards big cities than DS. Business in mid-small theaters seems nowhere close and I don't think an extra day will make that up. Perhaps the primetime broadcast could help here.

Best again not to keep comparing this to DS and be pleasantly surprised. That continuous comparison makes it look smaller when it is not.