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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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December 16-18 Predictions
It's here!
Avatar: The Way of Water- 165m
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Fri Dec 09, 2022 9:30 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
190 million
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Dec 09, 2022 10:32 am |
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Mau
100% That Bitch
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:42 pm Posts: 16898 Location: Monterrey, Mexico
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
And we all doubted Mr Cameron. The rel GOAT
_________________ Tongue Pop!
I kneel with Magnus.
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Fri Dec 09, 2022 1:56 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
183m.
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Fri Dec 09, 2022 3:50 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23790 Location: Classified
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
$25M/$50M/$65M/$53M for about $193M weekend. Would be nice to see it go over $200M though.
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Fri Dec 09, 2022 3:53 pm |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Not sure I am sensing a huge rush factor for this, so I'll go with $175m opening (and monster legs)
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Sun Dec 11, 2022 6:07 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
$174m OW
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Sun Dec 11, 2022 8:38 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
201m OW go big or go to Pandora and die
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Mon Dec 12, 2022 10:53 am |
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Samweis Gamdschie
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:35 pm Posts: 2077 Location: At the edge of reality
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Something around 150m
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:42 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Reviews start at 83% 7.1/10 avg rating.
Looks like it will settle in low 70s, high 60s. Not great
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:24 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38017
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
I feel like this will have a worse story than the original (which was more copying Dances with Wolves/Ferngully than bad in a vacuum)
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:55 pm |
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rftapeout
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:20 pm Posts: 92
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
In Grace Randolph's latest movie math video (around December 11, 2022), she doubted that Avatar 2 will have an opening weekend over $200 million. In the box office theory forum, some posters have a hard time producing tracking results of over $20 million for Thursday previews. Wakanda Forever, the #2 weekend opener of 2022 with $181.3 million had Thursday previews of $28 million. Jurassic World Dominion had a $18 million Thursday previews and a $145.1 million opening weekend. So I voted for the #3 highest weekend opener of 2022 for Avator The Way of the Water.
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:03 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Reviews stayed the same as 50 more came in. Looks like it has a chance to stay over 80% and 7/10 avg rating
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:17 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Deadline says $38m advance sales. Expect walk up business to be better than MCU films so should be interesting.
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 4:39 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
$205M opening
Buzz seems positive and I think there will be a lot of walk-ups. This has wide appeal from older sci fi Gen Xer fans, millennials and Gen Z that grew up with the first one, and families because it still comes across like an animated movie. There is also literally nothing else to see.
_________________ .
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 4:42 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
I'll go with subdued opening but better second weekend drop (like the original). $145M. People aren't going to rush out to any show on this like Spiderman. They'll be much more deliberate and watch it on premium screens. Expect many of those best screens will sell out (or have already) so they'll spread out across next week's dailies and second weekend. I'd rather wait to see it on a good screen than see it for the sake of it OW on a subpar screen. Of all movies, this demands the best screen possible.
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:27 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Barrabás wrote: There is also literally nothing else to see. Yeea, the cinemas are empty now.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:08 pm |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Friday: $73M ($22M Previews) Saturday: $57M Sunday: $55M Weekend: $185M
Only part of this I'm really confident in is that Sunday > raw Friday. I think the runtime plus the lack of "gotta see it ASAP!!!" rush that usually surrounds these mega-openers will push out the business further into the weekend.
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Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:38 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23790 Location: Classified
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
My theater was oddly unbusy. I went to an early showing so it wasn't that surprising at first, but I expected it to be packed with eager fans on the way out.
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Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:30 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
I think the opening will be big but subdued and it will all be about legs. I see it more likely going under $170m than over $190m
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:05 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Premium showings around me were packed. normal showings were only average
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Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:18 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11518
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Re: December 16-18 Predictions
Just read that the average ticket price for a 3D premium general seat is at $18.28 for Avatar 2, versus $12.53 for a 2D seat, and last weekend’s average theater ticket price of $12.04.
By comparison, Avatar 1's time, average ticket prices were $7.61 in Q4 2009, Imax prices were at $14.58, and 3D premium was $2-4 over $2 (approximately $10 average).
I did a quick search on an IMAX theater in SF, ticket price was $25.49. Will be on the higher end being in a major city but didn't want to find an average so using it since coastal cities will be popular for Avatar 2.
So here's the stats since 2009:
Average ticket price growth (2D): +64.7% 3D ticket price growth: +82.8% Imax ticket price growth: +74.8%
Let's say overall, ticket prices are up 75% vs 2009 for Avatar ($1.3B). Avatar can lose 55% of its audience this time and ticket prices have gone up so significantly it would still top TGM.
What's staggering is 2019 ticket price average was $9.16. We've seen a 31.4% increase in average tickets (not even covering a likely increase driven further by Avatar tickets) in just three years. It took 10 years for tickets to jump 58.2% from Q4 2009 to 2019.
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Fri Dec 16, 2022 3:20 am |
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