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 Avatar 2 Predictions 
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
O wrote:
Internationally I'm feeling this will recapture a lot of the box office momentum the first one had, especially in APAC. Domestically still not convinced. Think the floor is a lot lower for this one and believe BP2's opening 4 weeks earlier is going to be a zeitgeist domestic moviegoing event.

Avatar 1's domestic (26.7%), overseas (73.3%) was the breakdown in 2009. I could see this shift even more dramatically where Avatar 2 does 15% domestic to 85% overseas and still do $3B WW.


How when Black Panther himself is not part of it anymore?

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Wed May 11, 2022 11:47 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Yea I don't know about it being an event but a nine digit opener for sure (especially considering DS2 did so well). If anything, it'll get folks primed for theater going.

Shazam 2 is the only real threat that month from what I can see thus far.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule

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Thu May 12, 2022 12:28 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
There were entire schools going to the original BP for showings so it became much bigger than just a movie. A lot of the interest will be how they approach it with their star gone. It became the #3 film of all time and nearly pulled a 3.5 multiplier in Feb. on an inflated long weekend. It's going to be a massive event and would not be shocked if it outgrosses Shazam's total run in its first 3 days.

I would not be surprised by an OW that surpasses Spiderman.


Thu May 12, 2022 8:36 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
O wrote:
There were entire schools going to the original BP for showings so it became much bigger than just a movie. A lot of the interest will be how they approach it with their star gone. It became the #3 film of all time and nearly pulled a 3.5 multiplier in Feb. on an inflated long weekend. It's going to be a massive event and would not be shocked if it outgrosses Shazam's total run in its first 3 days.

I would not be surprised by an OW that surpasses Spiderman.


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Fri May 13, 2022 1:42 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
It's made very clear in Black Panther that T'challa is one of many previous black panthers and you just have to do the ritual with the flower in order to become Black panther. Honestly of all the superhero identities in Marvel, besides maybe Captain Marvel the Black Panther title seems least linked directly to T'challa out of all the MCU heroes.

They will also probably have some archival footage and his funeral which will build hype as well. Thinking an Age of Ultron level performance at worst. But this will have Thanksgiving to aid its legs.


Fri May 13, 2022 1:59 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Except that Killmonger burned the magic flower field.

I think the point of Black Panther was that while anyone could put on the suit, very few were worthy of wieldings its power.

So what do they do now? Just have Shuri sub in? Or go to an "we're all black panther" type of messaging?


Fri May 13, 2022 2:14 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I saw Doctor Strange 2 yesterday in 3D. Good movie. The Avatar 2 3D trailer was in front of it. That trailer is infinitely better in 3D than 2D. I forgot how great the 3D was for Avatar. I now cannot wait to see this, and I'm sure this is just the beginning of the hype. I don't think it will beat the original domestically, but the dropoff won't be much, and with OS it may end up making more overall. Predicting movies is getting fun again.


Sat May 14, 2022 11:08 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Should be good for $600m based on the legion of fans that still exist + inflation.

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Sun May 15, 2022 7:04 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
BP2 seems to be heavy on water scenes. Should be interesting to see if that has any impact on Avatar 2 in terms of novelty. May by Aquaman in March 2023. Strange to see 3 big $300M+ tentpoles all with dominant water focus opening 5 months of each other.


Sun Jul 24, 2022 1:05 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I think Avatar 2 is gonna top Top Gun Maverick tbh.


Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:19 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Watch this beat the Force Awakens

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Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:22 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
It could match Spider-Man No Way home but it’s second weekend being the 23rd-25 is going to give it a terrible second weekend hold.


Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:36 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Sucks that Russia is not gonna contribute, and mayeb China as well? Probably would have been the first $3B grosser.

Coming off the the rerelease I think it'll be $210M / $860M / $2.2B


Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:57 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
This run is going to be challenging to compare to the original due to currency fluctuation.

In Dec. 2009, 1 UK Pound = 1.60 USD. Avatar finished in the UK with $150,898,698 USD equivalent.

As of today, 1 UK Pound = 1.05 USD. That same tally from 2009 would now be $99.0M. Add in 13 years of ticket inflation and it will help but given Avatar 2 is going to be a big global play, just how much of a hit does it take from the strong dollar?


Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:05 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
The insanely strong dollar does put a damper on this OS/WW. Maybe it'll weaken in 3 months but I'm not holding my breath since it's gotten worse. The Fed just increased rates by another .75% last week, meaning that another increase (even if it's lower) is in store later this year, too, I would imagine.

Matching the original in Japan equals a loss of $60 million or so, so combined with the U.K., that's over a $110 million difference.

I wonder if the original would be under $2 billion with the current rates.

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Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:14 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Sucks that Russia is not gonna contribute, and mayeb China as well?


It's anybody's guess. At least the film doesn't have anything political going against it. But it is ultimately a film from Disney, and China doesn't like them right now for some reason. But The Way of Water already had a private screening in China, so Cameron and co. seems to be sucking up to this one market. Which I guess makes sense being such a huge market. It still wouldn't surprise me if China says no, but what's most likely is that they just play their normal games of giving it a bad release date, not allowing advertising, getting their army of bots to review bomb it, and pulling it after 31 days even if it's still making good money (which is normal in China for foreign movies).

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Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:41 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
$30 million down, $123 million to go to $3 BILLION WORLDWIDE

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Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:04 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Algren wrote:
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Sucks that Russia is not gonna contribute, and mayeb China as well?


It's anybody's guess. At least the film doesn't have anything political going against it. But it is ultimately a film from Disney, and China doesn't like them right now for some reason. But The Way of Water already had a private screening in China, so Cameron and co. seems to be sucking up to this one market. Which I guess makes sense being such a huge market. It still wouldn't surprise me if China says no, but what's most likely is that they just play their normal games of giving it a bad release date, not allowing advertising, getting their army of bots to review bomb it, and pulling it after 31 days even if it's still making good money (which is normal in China for foreign movies).
The first film is a pretty direct critique on the Iraq War. China could market it like that. But it's also very pro-American since we've loved our "revolt against the Empire" stories since 1777 and obviously it's a white man and his god that saves the day at the end.


Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:38 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Algren wrote:
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Sucks that Russia is not gonna contribute, and mayeb China as well?


It's anybody's guess. At least the film doesn't have anything political going against it. But it is ultimately a film from Disney, and China doesn't like them right now for some reason. But The Way of Water already had a private screening in China, so Cameron and co. seems to be sucking up to this one market. Which I guess makes sense being such a huge market. It still wouldn't surprise me if China says no, but what's most likely is that they just play their normal games of giving it a bad release date, not allowing advertising, getting their army of bots to review bomb it, and pulling it after 31 days even if it's still making good money (which is normal in China for foreign movies).
The first film is a pretty direct critique on the Iraq War. China could market it like that. But it's also very pro-American since we've loved our "revolt against the Empire" stories since 1777 and obviously it's a white man and his god that saves the day at the end.

Yeah, so there are always ways to bend every film to make a political statement, but I think they would be clutching at straws to rationalise Avatar: The Way of Water being pro-American or something that Chinese eyes should not see. It's American made so obviously the good guys will be American but more importantly the antagonists are American, so China will see that as positive thing to allow it to play. The fact there's no direct links to US or Chinese militaries helps a lot. To most people it's some alien race CGI fest with little-to-no real world insinuation.

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Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:12 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
I need to make a point to see this re-release before it leaves theaters. It makes a difference what format you see it in.

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Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:22 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
THR says running time is around 190min...

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Sat Oct 29, 2022 8:12 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Those extra 29 minutes from #1 is where the 13 years came in. :P


Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:28 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Ticket sales are starting November 21.

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Sat Oct 29, 2022 1:00 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
If the movie resonates with audiences runtime won't matter much. Its a Cameron movie after all.


Sat Oct 29, 2022 2:54 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 Predictions
Avatar was 2 hrs & 41 minutes and it didn’t feel that long at all.

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