Friday Night Lights vs. Ladder 49 Friday Night Lights vs. Ladder 49
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
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 Friday Night Lights vs. Ladder 49 Both movies has opened similarily and both movies have dropped a similar percentage in their 2nd weekend. Furthermore, both movies enjoy pretty good WoM, even though Ladder 49 opened to much worse reviews than Friday Night Lights.
Which one will win the race in the end, though?
My guess is Ladder 49. I see it beating out Friday Night Lights, but just barely.
My projections:
Friday Night Lights - $73 million
Ladder 49 - $76 million
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 4:04 pm |
 
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Eagle
Site Owner
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:09 pm
Posts: 14631
Location: Pittsburgh
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Going to have to side with Friday Night Lights.
Sports fans are notoriously slow getting to theaters. I think it will have slightly better legs, just enough to give it the nod.
KJ
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 4:07 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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I'd give the edge to Ladder 49. They seem to have the same type of drops, but Ladder 49 started out better.
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 4:46 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
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Location: San Mateo, CA
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The weekdays for Ladder 49 are stronger, and it had a better start. It will finish 5-10M ahead.
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 5:55 pm |
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torrino
College Boy T
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
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Hmm. What about The Forgotten?
Anyways, good thread Lecter.
I'll put moi money on Friday Night Lights.
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 5:56 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm
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I'd say Ladder 49 as well, but not by much.
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 6:01 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
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torrino wrote: Hmm. What about The Forgotten?
Anyways, good thread Lecter.
I'll put moi money on Friday Night Lights. Good question about The Forgotten. Its second weekend drop is steeper than the other two, but its 3rd and 4th have been good to great. It'll be fun to track those three.
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 6:02 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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xiayun wrote: torrino wrote: Hmm. What about The Forgotten?
Anyways, good thread Lecter.
I'll put moi money on Friday Night Lights. Good question about The Forgotten. Its second weekend drop is steeper than the other two, but its 3rd and 4th have been good to great. It'll be fun to track those three. True, but my bets are on The Forgotten being CRUSHED by The Grudge next weekend, really.
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 6:36 pm |
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MGKC
---------
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 10:42 pm
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Location: Kansas City, Kansas
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I really hope Ladder 49 can beat Friday Night Lights. I really like Joaquin Phoenix as an actor and I want to see this movie badly.
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| Mon Oct 18, 2004 10:06 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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Location: Bonn, Germany
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At the moment, Ladder 49 leads by around $4.1 million in direct comparison after 11 days.
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| Tue Oct 19, 2004 7:11 pm |
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sako
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 6:07 pm
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I say Friday Night Lights
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| Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:38 pm |
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DP07
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I think it will clearly be Ladder 49. FNL got 3.7m more this past weekend, but it's 16m behind. It will need much better legs then L 49 to make up that gap. It's quite unlikely to happen.
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| Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:18 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
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DP07 wrote: I think it will clearly be Ladder 49. FNL got 3.7m more this past weekend, but it's 16m behind. It will need much better legs then L 49 to make up that gap. It's quite unlikely to happen. Well, it has also gotten better reviews, no?  _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:43 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
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Ladder 49 will clearly win now with Friday Night Lights' third weekend drop. It could also beat The Forgotten depending on next weekend's drop.
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| Sun Oct 24, 2004 2:28 pm |
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DP07
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Dr. Lecter wrote: DP07 wrote: I think it will clearly be Ladder 49. FNL got 3.7m more this past weekend, but it's 16m behind. It will need much better legs then L 49 to make up that gap. It's quite unlikely to happen. Well, it has also gotten better reviews, no? I remember you used the same arguement for The Butterfly Effect and Man on Fire. :wink: It now looks like L 49 has the better legs of the two. :wink:
Having seen both I certainly think L 49 has better WOM. I should also note I liked them equally, but L 49 has the great WOM from women with that ending.
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| Sun Oct 24, 2004 5:52 pm |
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Amer
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 10:35 pm
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Both are great movies!!! But I think Friday night Lights will win.
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| Sun Oct 24, 2004 6:36 pm |
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Maximus
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I'll go with old Ladder 49 this time.
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| Sun Oct 24, 2004 6:47 pm |
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xiayun
Extraordinary
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Ladder 49 is more of a uplifting and feel-good drama, and that increases repeat viewings. Critics normally like depressing and twisted stories more, but not necessarily general pubic.
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| Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:07 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
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Both movies were good, though I did enjoy Friday Night Lights a lot more. Still, Ladder 49 will win because it appeals more to adults.
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| Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:09 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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Looks like Friday Nights Lights won't even break $70 million....
Ladder 49 will end up close to my projection, though.
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| Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:32 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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Weekend 1:
Ladder 49 - $22,088,204
Friday Night Lights - $20,269,025
Weekend 2:
Ladder 49 - $13,105,177 -40.7%
Friday Night Lights - $12,216,880 -39.7%
Weekend 3:
Ladder 49 - $8,503,420 -35.1%
Friday Night Lights - $6,947,460 -43.1%
Total gross:
After Weekend 1:
Ladder 49 - $22,088,204
Friday Night Lights - $20,269,025
After Weekend 2:
Ladder 49 - $41,025,820
Friday Night Lights - $37,819,455
After Weekend 3:
Ladder 49 - $53,747,377
Friday Night Lights - $47,269,480
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The gap between Ladder 49 and Friday Night Lights just keeps widening despite the much better critical reception for the latter. I see no chance for it to win at the moment, as stated above.
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| Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:53 pm |
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BigMoviePimp
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Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 3:54 pm
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Ladder 49 will surely win.
Kinda disappointing legs for Friday Night Lights, to be honest.
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| Wed Oct 27, 2004 11:28 pm |
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Algren
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Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm
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Dunno by how much or anything, but Ladder 49 will easily win imo
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| Thu Oct 28, 2004 3:04 pm |
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BigMoviePimp
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Looks like a clear win for Ladder 49. It will pass $75m. while Friday Night Lights will struggle for $60m. Very surprising results considering the reviews for both movies (negative for Ladder 49 and positive for Friday Night Lights).
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| Fri Nov 12, 2004 12:10 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
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Weekend 1:
Ladder 49 - $22,088,204
Friday Night Lights - $20,269,025
Weekend 2:
Ladder 49 - $13,105,177 -40.7%
Friday Night Lights - $12,216,880 -39.7%
Weekend 3:
Ladder 49 - $8,503,420 -35.1%
Friday Night Lights - $6,947,460 -43.1%
Weekend 4:
Ladder 49 - $5,324,148 -37.4%
Friday Night Lights - $4,085,440 -41.2%
Weekend 5:
Ladder 49 - $3,256,363 -38.8%
Friday Night Lights - $2,975,065 -27.2%
Total gross:
After Weekend 1:
Ladder 49 - $22,088,204
Friday Night Lights - $20,269,025
After Weekend 2:
Ladder 49 - $41,025,820
Friday Night Lights - $37,819,455
After Weekend 3:
Ladder 49 - $53,747,377
Friday Night Lights - $47,269,480
After Weekend 4:
Ladder 49 - $61,365,196
Friday Night Lights - $52,944,730
After Weekend 5:
Ladder 49 - $66,118,796
Friday Night Lights - $57,256,950
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Ladder 49 has a huge lead by now which Friday Night Lights won't be able to make up for. This is just a further proof of how reviews do not really matter that much and it shows what some very good marketing can do to an even badly-reviewed movie. Ladder 49 is even leading over Friday Night Lights in Dailies now. Both movies, however, are hits.
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| Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:11 pm |
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