Openers:


The Polar Express - 3650 (on Wed.)
After the Sunset - 2819
Seed of Chucky - 2061
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason - 530


Expanders:

Ray - 2,469 +6
Hero - 212 +122
Sideways - 144 +78
The Machinist - 16 +3


Decreasing/No Change:

The Grudge - 2,816 -520
Saw - 2,467 0
Alfie - 2,215 0
Shall We Dance M- 2,065 -477
Shark Tale - 1,622 -1,195
Friday Night Lights - 990 -1,120
Team America: World Police - 875 -827
Ladder 49 - 830 -840
Surviving Christmas DreamWorks 431 -1,088 4
Taxi - 431 -668
Birth - 305 -245
I Heart Huckabees - 278 -307
The Motorcycle Diaries - 238 -30
Shaun of the Dead - 103 -153


GREAT for The Polar Express. This movie will be BIGGER than most people here think, in my opinion.

Shall We Dance started losing theatres...oh well, it was inevitable

Yay, i knew it would be huge.

For a while, i was wondering WHY anyone would think this would make less than $100M.

It's a lock if you ask me.

C;mon Chucky!

I see The Polar Express as the Christmas movie of the year (like Elf and Santa Clause 2 in the recent years). It will definitely break $100 million.

Wow!

*raises prediction*

Bridget Jones - 530

Maybe Seed of Chucky is in exactly 2000 theaters since Focus has released other movies' counts.

Hey Doc, I am glad that you stated, in my opinion, I would have thought that you were giving someone elses opinion if you didn't clarify this with that disclaimer.

Note: Sorry for the diatribe but I just don't understand why people need to put such an redundunt and pointless comment in their statements. Of course, this opinion is only in my opinion. (Well maybe you do need it to PROVE that you are making the statement.)

Lecter, Not to pick on you but you make so many interesting comments.

So let's begin ( such alittle statement and so many questions )

- Your comparing the Polar Express to those movies. Elf made about 175 US and SC 2 made about 140 US, I think those are bad comparisions. Especially since you say it will be a 100 million dollar movie; that isn't very impressive.

- The Christmas movie of the Year is being released in the second week of November. This movie will be closer to Surviving Xmas than Elf.

- Not knowing the list of Xmas movies, I would think that Xmas with the Kranks will be more of a Xmas movie and a BO hit than Polar Express.

- Then that reminds me of your Ladykillers analysis. It starred Tom Hanks, it should have made more. So are we looking at another thread from you. (The Polar Express starred freaking Tom Hanks and it is a BO disappointment.)

I personally think Christmas with the Kranks will be the Christmas movie of the year. I see The Polar Express doing good, but it won't be the Christmas movie of the year.

Sorry to pick on you Goldie. You had some good points up there except the bolded one. You're saying that $100 million dollars is not impressive? How the hell did you come to the assumption? Just because it's budget is high, doesn't mean that $100 million isn't successful. The Polar Express will make all of it's money back eventually, but to say that $100 million for that movie (or any movie for that matter) is crazy.

And I will clarify your postings with the mods

To Mr. Z,

Your right that 100 is a milestone. But other than hitting 100, I don't think it will be thought of much other than being on the 100+ lists. Even look at this year where Day After did about 180 and Troy about 140. There wasn't even that much talk about those numbers at higher levels.

After the Sunset's estimated theatre count was upped to 2700+. This bodes very well for this movie. I think that $15+ milion is definitely within reach, despite horrendous reviews.

After the Sunset 2,819
Seed of Chucky 2,061

I did my prediction for After the Sunset for the derby based on 2400+ estimate. :x I'd have increased it to 12M with the current count.

Focus really knows how to kill their movies chances. Bye bye, Seed of Chucky. Great for After The Sunset, though.

It's not like the addition of 500 theatres was really going to help Seed of Chucky, a frontloaded film in a horror series, make much more.

Holy Lord!

Gotta raise my prediction now, that is a huge count.

Complete counts.

No increase for Polar Express on Friday, so it won't get the boost from that. Good for After the Sunset. Saw didn't lose any theaters, while The Grudge continues to hold on to most of its as well. Hero finally hit discount theaters.

November 19 Estimates:

The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie 3,100+
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason 2,500+
National Treasure 2,500
Sideways 400 +256
Being Julia 250+
Bad Education 3 (NYC)
Finding Neverland Top 20 Markets

I thought National Treasure would be in 3000 theaters. Guess people are more interested in SpongeBob.

I'm guessing each of the top 3 end up in 3000+ theaters, or very close to it.

well i hope SpongeBob get more than that!

Ha ha! Look at Shark Tale's theater drop! Down 1,195! Obviosly the three new releases took Shark Tale, Friday Night Lights, Team America, and Ladder 49's screens.

WOW!!
what happend to Shark tale!! thats a huge fall!! :?
its was doing very well!!

10 4 Shark Tale DreamWorks 1,622 -1,195 7
11 9 Friday Night Lights Universal 990 -1,120 6
12 10 Team America: World Police Paramount 875 -827 5
13 11 Ladder 49 Buena Vista 830 -840

So after rethinking your position do you still think that this is the Xmas movie of the year.

Goldie still says that belongs to Xmas with the Kranks. Tim Allen, Jamie Lee & Dan Ackroyd.

Anyone else know of any other Xmas movies as I haven't checked the December list for them.

The theater average was under $2,000 last week, and there is tremendous competition for theaters this week. The theater counts for the openers add up to 9,000+. Where do you think they would be getting them from. :wink:

As a matter of fact, I DO think that it will definitely outgross Christmas with the Kranks