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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6234
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Only good news is MI7 is having reasonable OS gross and so its not a disaster like Flash or almost a disaster in Indy 5. Otherwise its the most disappointing of the 3. Should have found a better date for this movie.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Jul 27, 2023 9:15 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21931 Location: Places
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
so here are full of shit when they say they saw the flash bombing coming a mile away. 4 weeks from release, BOT predictions had opening weekend range of $100m-$140
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Thu Jul 27, 2023 9:35 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Checking the OS numbers, I don't think Indy is even going to reach $400m WW? Or if it does, just barely.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Thu Jul 27, 2023 9:36 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18958 Location: San Diego
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Given that MI's top film is like $220m, it's gross won't be drastically far away from the ones before. I think in an empty market it would've done close to $200m.
I didn't even realize Indy's overseas #s were that low. Sheesh.
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Thu Jul 27, 2023 10:48 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6167 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
All three cost $300M because of mismanagement, egos and COVID and will lose money, but MI will lose the least by a lot so it's not the worst performance by default. Whereas Flash and Indy are big enough bombs they would've bankrupt other studios in a different time (remember when Golden Compass bombing so hard killed New Line?).
_________________ .
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 12:07 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67154
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Corpse wrote: Checking the OS numbers, I don't think Indy is even going to reach $400m WW? Or if it does, just barely. Wow, geez. Its international total is shocking.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 4:44 am |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11075 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Barrabás wrote: All three cost $300M because of mismanagement, egos and COVID and will lose money, but MI will lose the least by a lot so it's not the worst performance by default. Whereas Flash and Indy are big enough bombs they would've bankrupt other studios in a different time (remember when Golden Compass bombing so hard killed New Line?). Had Indy 5 come out seven or eight years ago, this same movie would have made over a billion, but now the mystique of Disney doing Lucasfilms and the emergence of Gen Z as the new key demographic has sunk that chance and we are left with a decent sized blockbuster with a budget the film can’t afford. The Flash is just the Internet’s loud opinion clouding the judgment of studio execs. The DCEU outside of Wonder Woman is not popular despite how many insecure testicle enhancing man-boy Snyder fans out there think that a proper Snyder verse is super popular and the Flash was somehow going to prove that. Superhero films are out of style now, and DC is now Pepsi to Marvel’s Coke.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 9:09 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32140 Location: the last free city
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Barrabás wrote: All three cost $300M because of mismanagement, egos and COVID and will lose money, but MI will lose the least by a lot so it's not the worst performance by default. Whereas Flash and Indy are big enough bombs they would've bankrupt other studios in a different time (remember when Golden Compass bombing so hard killed New Line?). Had Indy 5 come out seven or eight years ago, this same movie would have made over a billion, but now the mystique of Disney doing Lucasfilms and the emergence of Gen Z as the new key demographic has sunk that chance and we are left with a decent sized blockbuster with a budget the film can’t afford. it's sad the 3 headed monster of Lucas/Spielberg/Harrison couldn't get on the same timetable to give us more than just 2 movies in the span of 34 years (1989-2023). so much wasted potential.
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 9:31 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
DHD has these for Thursday updated 3 minutes ago:
Barbie $21.4M -7% $258.6M Oppenheimer $10M -6% $127.8M
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:02 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21931 Location: Places
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Both films look highly highly likely for sub 50% drop even with previews included.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:14 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32140 Location: the last free city
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
O wrote: DHD has these for Thursday updated 3 minutes ago:
Barbie $21.4M -7% $258.6M Oppenheimer $10M -6% $127.8M
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:17 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Talk To Me $1.25M from Thursday previews.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:22 am |
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Kenspy
Into the fray
Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 12:09 pm Posts: 1874
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
O wrote: DHD has these for Thursday updated 3 minutes ago:
Barbie $21.4M -7% $258.6M Oppenheimer $10M -6% $127.8M Amazing. Historical box office runs that will be referenced for decades to come.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:28 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18958 Location: San Diego
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Really crazy to see. So interested to see if Barbie will just continue to go insane or slow down.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:32 am |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21931 Location: Places
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
We're a bit beyond "spillover" business now aside from Imax type stuff. This is just incredible WOM.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:32 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
We'll be at about 75% of 2022's annual gross with Thursday's dailies! Will probably be about 78% by the end of the weekend. 4 months left to go so hopefully enough of a push to get to $9B.
The Numbers has Barbie at $21.2M so that may be the official #. It will make up that $200K in about 30 minutes so no big deal.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:35 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32140 Location: the last free city
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Excel wrote: We're a bit beyond "spillover" business now aside from Imax type stuff. This is just incredible WOM. agree this is simply freaking awesome
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:53 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18958 Location: San Diego
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Insidious is about $8.7m away from being the highest grossing film in the franchise. Barring a big drop this weekend it could so it.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:55 am |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11075 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
I’d argue the last ten years or so have shown us that directors are bigger draws than actors any more. Barbie had Greta Gerwig’s name attached to it, and I’d argue her name being synonymous with quality pushed more people than Margot Robbie. And now we have Christopher Nolan out there as one of the biggest brands in the biz.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:57 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38315
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Algren wrote: Corpse wrote: Checking the OS numbers, I don't think Indy is even going to reach $400m WW? Or if it does, just barely. Wow, geez. Its international total is shocking. I agree that's the most surprising, I thought it would be the exact type of name recognizable brand international audiences go for after domestic tunes out.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:58 am |
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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Shack wrote: Algren wrote: Corpse wrote: Checking the OS numbers, I don't think Indy is even going to reach $400m WW? Or if it does, just barely. Wow, geez. Its international total is shocking. I agree that's the most surprising, I thought it would be the exact type of name recognizable brand international audiences go for after domestic tunes out. indy is literally nonexistent among the markets that have emerged since its last outing aka LATAM/asia. its numbers in those markets were a joke. it did ok in western europe (a market that has shrunk a lot since the 2000s unless your name in avatar) but that is not enough.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 11:00 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
O wrote: Talk To Me $1.25M from Thursday previews. Gotta say I am very pleasantly surprised by this number. I figured it would land in the $4-6M opening range of X or It Comes at Night for A24, but it looks like this could become one of the rare movies for them to make over $10M in a single weekend?
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 11:13 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Barbie $258.37M after 7 days!
If Barbie drops 50% for the rest of its run it would be at $516.74M.
If 45%, $574.15M
If 40%, $645.92M
If 35%, $738.19M
Of course, these would be impacted by the loss of summer weekdays but to ease the calculations, I'm using a "weekly average" as summer weekday loss would result in more business over the weekend.
$600M is looking good. Just needs to average low 40s drops.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 11:25 am |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6167 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: I’d argue the last ten years or so have shown us that directors are bigger draws than actors any more. Barbie had Greta Gerwig’s name attached to it, and I’d argue her name being synonymous with quality pushed more people than Margot Robbie. And now we have Christopher Nolan out there as one of the biggest brands in the biz. Yes in terms of solely a name driving people towards the movie (we know Margot isn't a draw from her pair of bombs last year), but I would argue casting Margot is also a key ingredient in the film's success. She's widely regarded as the most beautiful modern Hwood actress and a big part of Barbie's appeal is aspirational fantasy. It's the female equivalent of a superhero movie. Girls want to be Barbie like boys want to be a superhero. Marvel knows this and they make sure they only cast handsome guys as their heroes and put them through 6 months of steroids personal training. People like that Barbie is played by someone that looks like a real-life Barbie doll and no one fits the bill better than her right now. If they had gone the wink wink ironic route with Amy Schumer the film would've had a totally different appeal.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 1:55 pm |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11075 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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Re: Barbenheimer weekdays
Barrabás wrote: Darth Indiana Bond wrote: I’d argue the last ten years or so have shown us that directors are bigger draws than actors any more. Barbie had Greta Gerwig’s name attached to it, and I’d argue her name being synonymous with quality pushed more people than Margot Robbie. And now we have Christopher Nolan out there as one of the biggest brands in the biz. Yes in terms of solely a name driving people towards the movie (we know Margot isn't a draw from her pair of bombs last year), but I would argue casting Margot is also a key ingredient in the film's success. She's widely regarded as the most beautiful modern Hwood actress and a big part of Barbie's appeal is aspirational fantasy. It's the female equivalent of a superhero movie. Girls want to be Barbie like boys want to be a superhero. Marvel knows this and they make sure they only cast handsome guys as their heroes and put them through 6 months of steroids personal training. People like that Barbie is played by someone that looks like a real-life Barbie doll and no one fits the bill better than her right now. If they had gone the wink wink ironic route with Amy Schumer the film would've had a totally different appeal. All fair points.
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Fri Jul 28, 2023 2:09 pm |
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