History would have IJ5’s admissions dropping like 1/3 from IJ5. And precedent would have Flash doing at least on par with Justice a league 2017.

World wide opening is 130m.

Looks set for about 300m overseas and 160-170m domestic for sub 500m WW. Woof

Last one made $790,653,942 globally so if it pulled off $500M as bad as that is they'd be able to save some face at least.

3 weekends in and Flash still hasn't passed $100M though it will on Monday.

Mermaid's a lock at this point for $300M it looks like so that's a big win.

Elemental has reached a 3.165X multiplier if we go by the 5day estimates up to July 4th. With the long weekend, summer weekdays, and no competition for two weeks it's got a great path ahead for likely at least a 4.5X multiplier, one of Pixar's strongest ever.

Spider-verse passed $600M globally with lots more to go. Pretty great considering the first only did $384M.

The Flash got caught in deadly undertow of falling DC or superhero. I kind of feel get the feeling Indy would have flopped even if it came out 1-2 years ago.

The only time I'd say IJ5 could have worked post Skull was probably summer 2016 6 months after The Force Awakens. There would have been enough Ford nostalgia for people to give it a chance.

There's no way IJ would do well post pandemic with older folks not showing up to theaters in droves for several years. I'd say IJ may have missed a $30M OW if it had opened in 2021. 42% of its audience this weekend was 45 or older and 23% over 55. Lots of them would definitely not have showed up.

Maybe it could have pulled $200M in 2019 but the year was so stacked probably not.

It should’ve come out in like 2012. Crystal Skull was a huge hit and the decline would’ve been less with less time in between, even if it still declined

I'm seriously shocked at y'all being shocked at the Indy bombz. No one under 45 cares about Indiana Jones. And it shows.

I'm actually shocked it crossed $50mil OW

I hate to use this line over and over again, but no one under 45 (hell even 55) cared about Top Gun.

I've been sitting here thinking Maverick was a trendsetter, a gamechanger, the type of movie that would alter the box office forevermore. Turns out it was just a complete anomoly. Possibly the most random overperformance of all time. 80s nostalgia is dead at the box office. Harrison would have been better off doing season 5 of Stranger Things.

I do remember everyone in elementary school playing Lego Indiana Jones on Wii and ps3. And a lot of people took kids to see Crystal Skull.

I guess those same kids who are adults now didn’t end up caring for the movie that much and didn’t fall in love with the original trilogy as a result

TGM OW demos:

55% >35 years old
37% 18-34 years old
58% male

IJ5 OW demos
42% 45+
23% 55+
58% male

Quality, better marketing, pent up demand made a difference. If the studio reported >35 it could very well have been a carbon copy of TGM at high 50s I expect with the same gender ratio. The difference is the movie was so good that younger audiences watched it in subsequent weeks that the viewer age got younger and younger.

If IJ5 was hypothetically an amazing movie and if IJ4 hadn't left a bad taste in moviegoers mouths, the demographic breakdown actually is eerily similar so I would expect as wom came out the subsequent weeks would have gotten younger and younger for IJ5 too. But the quality, demand just wasn't there.

Beetlejuice will be an interesting case study next year on the 1980s reboots. It's bringing back Keaton but has made it relevant with today's moviegoers with Ortega. Feels a lot more like its updating itself for the times like TGM did than IJ5. If its a hit, I would argue there is a 1980s formula that can work.

Indiana Jones: if this had been rationally priced at about $150M, this would be a modest win and it would see a small profit. But with $400M+ costs between budget and marketing.... disaster. They thought the franchise still had blockbuster gas like in 2008, but that was 15 years ago. It couldn't overcome the hurdle of Harrison Ford being too old. 80 years old is too old period. Didn't help that they sent the wrong messaging about the female lead which caused a stupid anti-woke backlash they did nothing to mitigate. And I think the series overall has been less relevant in recent years and is low key being a bit forgotten. Audiences not liking Crystal Skull very much didn't help either. As did the lack of Spielberg. As did the lack of any memorable money shots in the trailers. Just a bad confluence of factors.

We live in a strange time. If they re-filmed 1/4 of IJ and somehow put in Ke Huy Quan, I feel like that would have resonated more than what they brought out to younger people. Emotional reunion, comeback story, etc. Those scenes of them would have gone "viral" and people would have maybe felt more connected to the new IJ.

The most exciting Ford moment that probably went viral this year was the photo of them reuniting at the Oscars. It helped EEAOO but definitely didn't help IJ5.

Also I love Spielberg's works but he's only had one movie do more than $75M+ in the past 10 years and that was based on a popular book with a built in fanbase. Would having him direct this really have led to much change at the box office? I really think minimal at best.

Oh no, so Dial of Destiny is another of this year's disappointments. Shazam 2, Flash, Indy 5, where will it end?

When will Elemental out-gross Flash? It's going to happen at some point..

Similarly, when does Transformers out-gross Fast X? Another that's likely to occur..

Ruby Gillman made almost identical the 6th weekend of The Little Mermaid. Lol fitting

Spielberg's films doing poorly lately could also be reflective that his style of movie just isn't that popular right now, while not directed by him Indy 5 would have enough borrowed.

We can always count on Jared Leto to bring on a mega flop. Haunted Mansion is on deck for July 28th ($158M budget). Could join Morbius, Blade Runner 2049, and Alexander among some of his achievements.

Kathleen really needs to go

On another note, there was a comparable that I think fits in best, Blade Runner 2049.

$32,753,122 OW in 2017. Up to 2023 it probably won't be that far off from where IJ5 is despite a 35 year wait between films showed how low the interest in Ford was. Maybe a low $40Ms OW today.

Male 71%
63% 35+

Of course also starring Jared Leto. Thought of BR2 when looking up box office of Jared Leto. The world comes full circle.

Haunted Mansion might not do super well but it won’t be because of Leto.

Mermaid would need the equivalent of 25% drops from here on out to hit $300 mil. Unless you’re thinking the long holiday weekend and future summer weekdays get us there.

Mermaid is gonna be a nail biter to hit 300m

This summer has been a disaster so far. Hopefully the Barbie/Oppenheimer double release can shake things up a bit.

I feel like Mermaid is going to coast past $300M. It's PTA has dropped under 20% two weekends in a row. It lost 26% of its theaters this weekend and still managed an under 40% drop (among the best in the top 10). It's gross up to July 4th is estimated at $283.3M so has $16.7M more to go and did a $5.2M 3day weekend with summer weekdays and no competition for another two weeks. Also combine that with probably some type of Labor Day re-release end of summer where people catch up on everything for another mini bump later if it is so close to $300M. Disney won't be able to resist.

Pretty much the Elemental and TLM show still as Kraken doesn't feel like it will be around for long. It made 45% of its weekend gross on Friday so not sure if its resonating with the matinee crowd.

I think Maverick benefiting from timing, as I stated earlier, very similar to Animal Crossing: New Horizons in 2020. So many older people wanted to go and see a reliably good movie that summer.

I would love to see an Animal Crossing movie.