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| Author: | BJ [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
TServo2049 wrote: I will not argue with you there. It's just that this will be Cameron's first non-original film in 25 years. I can't see how Avatar 2 won't be frontloaded to some degree. I think witha December release and Cameron's ability to make films that hold slightly better the film should be able to get over a 4.5+ multiplier. I don't doubt it will have the largest multiplier fora 100m+ opener. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 8:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
This is just an overkill with 3 sequels and that too so soon. Give them atleast two year gaps or something. But nevermind I believe in Jim he can deliver good movies that people can enjoy. I believe the final Hobbit will break $100m December opening so A2 will out-open that at about $120m-$130m opening and get a multiplier of 5 to 5.5 for $600m-$660m which should be enough to be one of the biggest movies of that time. Releasing in December has always helped the legs for Cameron's movies and this time it won't need a multiplier of 10 to come close to the opening. The second and third sequels would really depend on how good is the reception for A2. They can do $400m-$600m at this point. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
Agree with Jack. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 9:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
TServo2049 wrote: Do we even know if Cameron will be directing all three? Just Avatar 2. Then Jonathon Mostow will direct Avatar 3 and McG rumoured for the 4th film. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
They are filming all three movies together. If that is the case then I believe all three sequels will be directed by Cameron. |
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| Author: | nghtvsn [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
This is gonna open huge. I wouldn't doubt it. Opening 175 Dom 515 WW 2.2 |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Thu Aug 01, 2013 11:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
^ How bad are you expecting its legs to be? I don't think it will open THAT big in December maybe close to $150m and with holidays IT IS GETTING a minimum multiplier of 3. With $175m opening I see a minimum of $600m total for it. |
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| Author: | Brian [ Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
Long wait could benefit Avatar 2, I mean Titanic and Avatar were long waited productions from him, looks like Cameron enjoys the trend, however chapter 3 and 4 are risky, though they are guaranteed to make no less than 1.5b WW each |
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| Author: | BJ [ Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
A multiplier under 4.5 is quite literally impossible. James Cameron always delivers. |
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| Author: | choubachou [ Fri Aug 02, 2013 8:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
Much too early predictions: Opening day: $75M OW: $180M Total: $650M Overseas: $2B |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Fri Aug 02, 2013 11:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
People tend to forget this December we are talking about. A2's OD will not come close to original's OW. It'll clear $100m OW and will probably break December OW record but its not going to open as one of the biggest openers like $150m huge. |
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| Author: | Tuukka [ Fri Aug 02, 2013 11:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
Even if for some people it's important to hate on anything that is extremely popular, the fact is that Avatar had stellar WOM. Audiences loved the film. And since this is Cameron again, Avatar 2 is likely to be a massive crowdpleaser. The only thing working against it is, that it's not going to get the repeat business of the first film. Regardless, it's going to make 600+ million. |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Sun Jul 06, 2014 1:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
xiayun wrote: But when you compare ROTK with FOTR, the decrease in multiplier is not that significant, at least not in the 65% level as you are proposing with Avatar 2. I'm interested to know what's the biggest percentage drop in term of multiplier from the original to the sequel, but when the original had close to 9.74 multiplier (without counting the re-release), I have a hard time seeing the sequel suddenly drop to 3.x level without change in release date. It is true that there is a basis for saying that the audience for a movie and its sequels will be similar and therefore the multiplier of the original is relevant for the sequels. However, I think that if you adjust for the type of movie and audience, an unusually good multiplier simply predicts that the multiplier for the sequel will drop by more. We just saw 22 Jump Street and Think Like A Man Too have significant multiplier declines even though they had the advantage of summer weekdays. The two most extreme examples I can think of are Scream and The Ring. Scream dropped from about 16 to 3.1. The Ring from about 8.6 to 2.2. The release dates were different, but I think that accounted from a small part of the difference. Scream 2 was released a week earlier in December, but if Scream were released on that weekend I think the 2nd weekend drop would have been minimal, given its run, and the multiplier would have been only slightly affected. The Ring had Thanksgiving, but the Ring Two had Spring Break. Both Scream and the Ring expanded, but that again probably made up a minority of the multipliers. The Ring had only slight PTA drops as it expanded over the first 4 weeks. Avatar 2 should have a huge increase in number of screens as well. The increase might be comparable to the increase between Spider-man and Spider-man 3. One factor that might have helped Avatar's legs is that it appeals to such a massively wide audience. That can mean there isn't as much of a core audience that rushes out. Still, I think Avatar 2 will have a multiplier of around 3.9. Better than Star Wars, but low for the date. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Fri Jan 09, 2015 7:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
Now that Fox has scheduled ASSASSIN'S CREED for December 21st and THE GREATEST SHOWMAN ON EARTH for December 25th 2016 AVATAR 2 seems to be off the table for December 2016... (doesn't come as a surprise though...) |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Fri Jan 09, 2015 7:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
Magnus wrote: No one gives a shit about this film. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Jan 09, 2015 7:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
People don't write Avatar fan fiction. People don't dress up as Jake and Neytiri at Comic-Con. People don't endlessly speculate about who will star in the film. People don't hum the soundtrack or quote lines from it. People don't say, "WOW AVATAR let's watch the extended director's cut with commentary!" There are comparatively fewer Tumblr pages about Avatar than such widely popular things in the U.S. like Doctor Who. This is all evidence that no one gives a shit. |
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| Author: | movies35 [ Fri Jan 09, 2015 7:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
Yeah, as said in other threads, Avatar is one of the weirdest box office runs ever, honestly. It was SO HUGE and yet... Very few people care about it. I can't imagine a sequel (if it ever comes out, which, IMO, is doubtful) doing very well. |
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| Author: | The Dark Shape [ Fri Jan 09, 2015 8:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
zwackerm wrote: People don't write Avatar fan fiction. People don't dress up as Jake and Neytiri at Comic-Con. People don't endlessly speculate about who will star in the film. People don't hum the soundtrack or quote lines from it. People don't say, "WOW AVATAR let's watch the extended director's cut with commentary!" There are comparatively fewer Tumblr pages about Avatar than such widely popular things in the U.S. like Doctor Who. This is all evidence that no one gives a shit. And then you put out a trailer that says "From the director of THE TERMINATOR, ALIENS, TERMINATOR 2, and TITANIC." Suddenly people give a shit. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
movies35 wrote: Yeah, as said in other threads, Avatar is one of the weirdest box office runs ever, honestly. It was SO HUGE and yet... Very few people care about it. I can't imagine a sequel (if it ever comes out, which, IMO, is doubtful) doing very well. Avatar was one of those movies that was good in everything, but not great in anything. It was an event that people just had to see, but the film wasn't spectacular and didn't move people. It was just a CGI blockbuster event. Just Independence Day, which is shit and nobody also talks about that one either. But you have to give it time to create a franchise and a world. Tolkien's world is made up of 10+ projects, Star Wars is made up of tons of projects too, but Avatar is still at one; the film. It will grow more when it becomes an actual franchise and the fan base grows and the names integrate into pop culture. But regarding your comment about very few people caring about it. That's also true of Titanic, My Big Fat Greek Wedding etc. I never hear people talk about these. All I hear is talk of Hobbit, Star Wars, Star Trek even. It's totally normal to get freak box office runs that were isolated in excitement to their particular [very short] era. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
In sure most of is dont give a shit about it but unfortunately Joe and Jane Public do. I heard friends that we rarely talk movies to mention they read something about Avatar 2 being made and were excited about it. Many others that liked the first and look at me bewildered when i aay im not much of a fan. That said - with the initial novelty gone, the sequels should drop down to the 300-450m mark. |
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| Author: | Brian [ Fri Jan 09, 2015 11:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
After 5 years, I still think this will be big, never bet against Cameron! |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sat Jan 10, 2015 12:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
I still know lots of people who love Titanic. Mostly teenage girls, but still. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:52 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
Odd that you know a lot of teenage girls. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
zwackerm's a lucky bastard. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Wed Jan 14, 2015 11:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Avatar 2 Predictions |
It was never even officially scheduled for 2016, was it? That was just tentative. |
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