Official ¥10 Billion announcement.

There will also be another stage greeting celebration on September 1st, and I assume it'll be broadcast live nationwide in theaters, too, since there is some event that is expected to be announced.

I honestly don't and maybe I should think carefully by checking other sources before using Wikipedia to post stuff.

BTW I noticed that some of the highest local films at the Japanese box office like Demon Slayer when they have huge success at the box office in Japan, that interest in North America like box office wise explodes like Demon Slayer had a $21 million in North America box office before its final gross of $49 million. I known that One Piece is less popular than Dragon Ball and Demon Slayer, but with the growing popularity of Anime at the North American box office that this film will hopefully have a good gross like the last two My Hero Academia movies had at the North American box office.

Also, showing it at public halls and schools is totally cheating in terms of admissions. I cannot imagine them selling tickets to see it at schools, so I would also question the reliability of the admissions data. Surely the whole school (or certain classes) would just be given a period to watch it, rather than the school becoming a de facto cinema after hours.

I think a later frozen weekend hit 1b though, didn't it? Like its 8th or something. That run was crazy.

I agree by the way, should look at an increase this weekend. Not sure about the scale of it yet, saturday will be huge so will depend on how sun holds though last giveaway sunday held well enough.

Honestly, it was an anomaly for there to be no One Piece volume above ¥10 billion. The manga and anime are massive in Japan (less today than a decade ago but still). I was always baffled to see that the highest grossing OP movie had grossed just 6.7b when some Detective Conan movies had reached ¥9 billion.

As soon as it surpasses the Jujutsu Kaisen movie which I assume is almost a lock (correct me if I'm wrong, Corpse), there will be no movie based on a manga still above it other than the obvious one.

I see your point, about it being "odd" that a One Piece film hasn't been this big yet due to how massive of a franchise it is, but at the same time, these anime movies based on a TV anime/manga have only recently been putting up numbers like this. Remember that Film Z (the 2012 film) was the second biggest TV anime/manga movie ever at the time. A LOT has changed for this genre since then.

It began with the 2018 Detective Conan film breaking ¥9 billion (seeing a significant jump over its many predecessors), becoming the first TV anime/manga movie to break ¥9 billion, performing much higher than any past movie based on a TV anime/manga. Then, it did ¥9 billion again with the 2019 film.

And as we know, the biggest monster of all, Demon Slayer, went crazy and broke everything in 2020. It was the first movie based on a TV anime/manga to exceed ¥10 billion (not to mention quadrupling that...). It wouldn't have been unusual for it to be the outlier given its record-breaking performance, but just half a year later, Evangelion 3.0+1.0 nearly doubled up on its predecessor and also broke ¥10 billion (with a lot of pushing, but still).

And then we got Jujutsu Kaisen 0 a little over half a year after that going well over ¥10 billion, Detective Conan doing ¥9 billion once again, and now One Piece getting ¥10 billion so fast.

So, this trend of anime movies based on a TV anime/manga doing such high numbers is very recent, barely four years old. If we consider this, when just ¥5 billion was super impressive before 2018 for them, it's understandable, I think, that One Piece never got to ¥10 billion in the past.

¥10 billion requires a lot of casual/general moviegoer appeal, which, until very recently, was something none of them could manage to achieve.

Oh, and yes. If OP surpasses JJK0 (which is looking pretty likely), it'll be #2 behind Demon Slayer as far as movies based on a TV anime/manga go.

In fact, as I alluded to in my last post, the entire Top 7 films in this category have come from the past four years. The TV anime/manga movie genre is clearly seeing a boon and is at its peak right now. They went decades and decades without anything even coming near ¥10 billion (as mentioned, even ¥5 billion was rare before 2018), and now FOUR films have done it in the past 22 months (and three others, the Detective Conan films, have come close).

Yeah, Frozen's 8th weekend (its biggest weekend) was above ¥1 billion, but I was only referring to the fourth weekends themselves there. Sorry for any confusion.

Having One Piece in the discussion with these films is certainly something, considering they almost make up the entire top 5, #1, #2, #4, and #5, on the all-time charts.

Not saying One Piece is going to do ¥25 billion+ like them, but it's pretty insane that a One Piece film is currently beating them/competing against them.

And it's almost certainly increasing this weekend. Even if Sunday would happen to see a big drop, the Saturday is going to be really big (probably well over ¥500 million, possibly ¥600/700m or something) to offset that. Toho Ebina is starting to fill up (the 5 4DX shows are almost entirely sold out, and the 630 screen is seeing its first marked showing, too), which is a big indicator of success.

One Piece Film Red - Daily Tracker

Sat. (08/06): ¥1,232,095,230 ($9.1 million) / 869,407
Sun. (08/07): ¥1,022,141,800 ($7.6 million) / 710,145
Mon. (08/08): ¥591,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 430,000
Tues. (08/09): ¥466,000,000 ($3.5 million) / 340,000
Wed. (08/10): ¥525,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 415,000
Thur. (08/11): ¥593,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 430,000 *Holiday* / *Start of Obon Festival*
Fri. (08/12): ¥548,000,000 ($4.1 million) / 395,000
Sat. (08/13): ¥833,137,000 ($6.2 million) / 573,195
Sun. (08/14): ¥663,963,000 ($5.0 million) / 456,805
Mon. (08/15): ¥586,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 428,000
Tues. (08/16): ¥443,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 322,000
Wed. (08/17): ¥408,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 297,000 *End of Obon Festival*
Thur. (08/18): ¥278,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 197,000
Fri. (08/19): ¥274,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 192,000
Sat. (08/20): ¥380,598,600 ($2.8 million) / 260,000
Sun. (08/21): ¥437,715,000 ($3.2 million) / 299,000
Mon. (08/22): ~¥215,000,000 ($1.6 million) / ~155,000
Tues. (08/23): ~¥190,000,000 ($1.4 million) / ~130,000
Wed. (08/24): ~¥240,000,000 ($1.8 million) / ~175,000
Thur. (08/25): ~¥165,000,000 ($1.2 million) / ~115,000
Fri. (08/26): ~¥180,000,000 ($1.3 million) / ~125,000

Cumulative Total (21-Days): ~¥10,271,365,450 ($76.5 million) / ~7,351,711

**********

Great set of weekdays this week, right around ¥1 billion added to the total, and ~20% higher than the third weekend.

Saturday is shaping up to be quite huge, likely its biggest day since August 13th or 14th. The busiest theaters are going to be at 75%+ capacity again, the premium formats are performing especially well (makes sense as repeaters seek out various formats), and everywhere is just looking really good.

A fourth weekend increase is a near certainty, and I believe it can do ¥600/700 million tomorrow, and possibly break ¥1 billion for the weekend. So... ¥11 billion+ after Sunday looks nearly locked up, and it could exceed 8 million admissions after Sunday as well.

Saturday begins 163% ahead of last week. That won't hold as the day progresses, since reservations are so high today, but it does suggest a fairly substantial increase this weekend.

Wow, I would never have expected to see a One Piece movie do that well. I wonder how far it will go.

I come back to this thread every now and then ever since Your Name had its great run and with a new Shinkai movie hitting the theaters in november (I think?), I just have to ask: Can we already say anything about how well it will do? Contrary to most Shinkai films the next movie seems to feature a single female protagonist instead of a couple. I wonder whether this somewhat reduces the target audience?

Thanks for your work, Corpse. I am definitely one of those numerous lurkers who appreciate what you do a lot!

Howdy.

Personally, I don't think Suzume no Tojimari (Suzume's Locking-Up) is going to do insane numbers. It might do up to/around ¥10 billion on Shinkai's name, which is excellent, obviously, but I see no advantage it has over Weathering With You which did ¥14.19 billion, so a decline from it is pretty likely.

And I really dislike its Nov. 11th release date. Like... it almost feels like Toho is sticking it here so they can claim however much it earns in its first couple weeks to boost their quarterly earnings or something. It has one single holiday in its first eight weeks in release there. Now, films *can* still perform well away from holiday periods, but you should try to get them closer than almost 2 months out. It has to be amazingly well received like Your Name. was to counter the unfavorable release date. Not impossible again, but relying on that when a better release date guarantees some degree of success isn't wise.

As long as no one gets sick and just need to quarantine while in good health, I *sort of* want this one to get delayed due to Japan's crazy COVID cases delaying its production (like SAO was just delayed this past week). A March release, perhaps, where it gets Spring Break, Golden Week in late-April/early-May, and if it's well-received, it'd leg it out to summer vacation in July. I'd like it to earn as much as possible.

I may not have a Saturday estimate up for One Piece until much later tomorrow (I'll try), but if I don't, and based on its admissions at roughly the mid-day point, I think it's aiming for ~225,000 at the usuals and ~440,000 nationwide, for a gross around ¥650 million ($4.8 million). That'd be a whopping ~70% increase over last Saturday, and even with a big drop on Sunday, would *probably* get it above ¥1 billion for the weekend.

Seems about right, might go a bit lower or higher at usuals but not by much for sure. Sunday will drop but I don't think it'll drop 50% from saturday so 1b weekend should happen.

237k+ at 9pm.

So 690M-700M sat. Probably 1.2b weekend or so.

One Piece Film Red - Daily Tracker

Sat. (08/06): ¥1,232,095,230 ($9.1 million) / 869,407
Sun. (08/07): ¥1,022,141,800 ($7.6 million) / 710,145
Mon. (08/08): ¥591,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 430,000
Tues. (08/09): ¥466,000,000 ($3.5 million) / 340,000
Wed. (08/10): ¥525,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 415,000
Thur. (08/11): ¥593,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 430,000 *Holiday* / *Start of Obon Festival*
Fri. (08/12): ¥548,000,000 ($4.1 million) / 395,000
Sat. (08/13): ¥833,137,000 ($6.2 million) / 573,195
Sun. (08/14): ¥663,963,000 ($5.0 million) / 456,805
Mon. (08/15): ¥586,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 428,000
Tues. (08/16): ¥443,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 322,000
Wed. (08/17): ¥408,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 297,000 *End of Obon Festival*
Thur. (08/18): ¥278,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 197,000
Fri. (08/19): ¥274,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 192,000
Sat. (08/20): ¥380,598,600 ($2.8 million) / 260,000
Sun. (08/21): ¥437,715,000 ($3.2 million) / 299,000
Mon. (08/22): ~¥215,000,000 ($1.6 million) / ~155,000
Tues. (08/23): ~¥190,000,000 ($1.4 million) / ~130,000
Wed. (08/24): ~¥240,000,000 ($1.8 million) / ~175,000
Thur. (08/25): ~¥165,000,000 ($1.2 million) / ~115,000
Fri. (08/26): ~¥180,000,000 ($1.3 million) / ~125,000
Sat. (08/27): ~¥700,000,000 ($5.1 million) / ~480,000

Cumulative Total (22-Days): ~¥10,971,365,450 ($81.6 million) / ~7,831,711

**********

Insane ~80-85% increase over last Saturday, and it's almost certain to achieve the second biggest Fourth Weekend ever. Its fourth weekend will be higher than the opening weekends of all but one of its predecessors.

And tomorrow (or today, rather) it'll become the second fastest film to ¥11 billion by a significant margin (if it didn't with actuals already), as well as the second fastest to exceed 8 million admissions.

A lot would have to happen for it to miss ¥15 billion (~$110 million+) / ~10.5 million+ admissions now, I believe, with a chance at cracking the Top 10 All-Time list.

I wonder if the of Demon Slayer will be adapted into a movie. If it happens, how that movie will reshape the movie industry again.

One Piece Film Red - Daily Tracker

Sat. (08/06): ¥1,232,095,230 ($9.1 million) / 869,407
Sun. (08/07): ¥1,022,141,800 ($7.6 million) / 710,145
Mon. (08/08): ¥591,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 430,000
Tues. (08/09): ¥466,000,000 ($3.5 million) / 340,000
Wed. (08/10): ¥525,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 415,000
Thur. (08/11): ¥593,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 430,000 *Holiday* / *Start of Obon Festival*
Fri. (08/12): ¥548,000,000 ($4.1 million) / 395,000
Sat. (08/13): ¥833,137,000 ($6.2 million) / 573,195
Sun. (08/14): ¥663,963,000 ($5.0 million) / 456,805
Mon. (08/15): ¥586,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 428,000
Tues. (08/16): ¥443,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 322,000
Wed. (08/17): ¥408,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 297,000 *End of Obon Festival*
Thur. (08/18): ¥278,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 197,000
Fri. (08/19): ¥274,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 192,000
Sat. (08/20): ¥380,598,600 ($2.8 million) / 260,000
Sun. (08/21): ¥437,715,000 ($3.2 million) / 299,000
Mon. (08/22): ~¥215,000,000 ($1.6 million) / ~155,000
Tues. (08/23): ~¥190,000,000 ($1.4 million) / ~130,000
Wed. (08/24): ~¥240,000,000 ($1.8 million) / ~175,000
Thur. (08/25): ~¥165,000,000 ($1.2 million) / ~115,000
Fri. (08/26): ~¥180,000,000 ($1.3 million) / ~125,000
Sat. (08/27): ~¥700,000,000 ($5.1 million) / ~480,000
Sun. (08/28): ~¥540,000,000 ($4.0 million) / ~370,000

Cumulative Total (23-Days): ~¥11,511,365,450 ($85.6 million) / ~8,201,711

**********

Sunday up around 25% versus last week, and combined with the massive Saturday increase, led to a weekend increase a little over 50%.

-Second Fastest Film to Exceed ¥11 billion.
-Second Fastest Film to Exceed 8 million admissions.
-Second Biggest Fourth Weekend of All-Time.
-Second Highest Running Total After Four Weeks. (Only the second film to be above ¥10 billion at this point.)

And a spot in the all-time top 10, a gross north of ¥15 billion, is looking quite likely!

Question:
It took titanic 82 days to get to 10 billion right? And it made like 27 billion (I know some of it was re-releases).. But just how long was it on cinemas during its first run? How long are movies runs typically?

Titanic was in theaters for at least 9 months, but may have been closer to 10/11 months. It was still in the Top 10 on the third weekend of September 1998 before falling out, but it went from 5th place to out entirely the next weekend, suggesting the home video release was around this time. (Home video releases typically kill theatrical performances in the market.)

A standard release is usually in theaters for 3-4 months, which I think is fairly typical in most markets.

But if a film is really leggy, they can reach 5/6 months in theaters pretty easily, and if they happen to also be making a lot of money still, that can go up to 8 months to a year.

A few notable long theatrical runs:

Spirited Away ~11 months/1-year.
Bohemian Rhapsody ~11 months/1-year.
Your Name. ~11 months.
Demon Slayer ~9 months.

And there are a lot of films with 7/8 months or so in theaters.

Famously, Disney killed Frozen's theatrical run by releasing it early on home video, only giving it 5 months in theaters. It would have outgrossed Titanic to claim the #2 spot all-time (at the time) if they weren't super greedy.

Wow! I didn't know some of the movies runs were for almost a year. Thanks for the info, Corpse!

One Piece Film Red - Daily Tracker

Sat. (08/06): ¥1,232,095,230 ($9.1 million) / 869,407
Sun. (08/07): ¥1,022,141,800 ($7.6 million) / 710,145
Mon. (08/08): ¥591,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 430,000
Tues. (08/09): ¥466,000,000 ($3.5 million) / 340,000
Wed. (08/10): ¥525,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 415,000
Thur. (08/11): ¥593,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 430,000 *Holiday* / *Start of Obon Festival*
Fri. (08/12): ¥548,000,000 ($4.1 million) / 395,000
Sat. (08/13): ¥833,137,000 ($6.2 million) / 573,195
Sun. (08/14): ¥663,963,000 ($5.0 million) / 456,805
Mon. (08/15): ¥586,000,000 ($4.4 million) / 428,000
Tues. (08/16): ¥443,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 322,000
Wed. (08/17): ¥408,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 297,000 *End of Obon Festival*
Thur. (08/18): ¥278,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 197,000
Fri. (08/19): ¥274,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 192,000
Sat. (08/20): ¥380,598,600 ($2.8 million) / 260,000
Sun. (08/21): ¥437,715,000 ($3.2 million) / 299,000
Mon. (08/22): ~¥210,000,000 ($1.6 million) / ~155,000
Tues. (08/23): ~¥190,000,000 ($1.4 million) / ~130,000
Wed. (08/24): ~¥235,000,000 ($1.8 million) / ~175,000
Thur. (08/25): ~¥160,000,000 ($1.2 million) / ~115,000
Fri. (08/26): ~¥175,000,000 ($1.3 million) / ~125,000
Sat. (08/27): ¥682,500,000 ($4.9 million) / 467,500
Sun. (08/28): ¥526,500,000 ($3.8 million) / 364,500
Mon. (08/29): ~¥205,000,000 ($1.5 million) / ~150,000

Cumulative Total (24-Days): ~¥11,659,000,000 ($86.7 million) / ~8,351,000

**********

Weekend actuals came in slightly below estimates (¥1.209 billion / 832,000 admissions, +48% versus last weekend)), but all the achievements discussed remain (2nd fastest to ¥11 billion, 8 million admissions, second biggest fourth weekend). The last set of weekdays (revenue) were adjusted to account for the actual (admissions will be adjusted tomorrow).

Also, excellent Monday! Down about 3% versus last week, and I expect the weekdays to have great holds from the giveaway effect lasting longer this time.

I don't have a lot of time to dedicate to the Weekend Actuals today/tomorrow (will try to have them up tomorrow night), but I'll update the 2022 Charts here soon.