TGM doing giveaway from 08/15 → 600,000 copies
https://topgunmovie.jp/news/2022/08/08/topgun0808/
| World of KJ https://worldofkj.com/forum/ |
|
| Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=55322 |
Page 850 of 952 |
| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
WayneBorg wrote: Hi Corpse Can you post the Obon dates please? Just so we know when the holiday period would start boosting the holdovers' daily performances. These are always fun to track. Many thanks. Obon Festival may not have *too* much of an impact on the weekdays this year since the biggest days (August 13-15) fall over next weekend. However, next Monday (the 15th) is likely to be a pretty big day (probably close to either Saturday or Sunday). The couple days before and after, so August ~11/12 and 16/17, can be pretty strong too (it's usually like August ~11-17 where we see the impact), but we'll just have to watch and see when the holiday period really kicks in and ends this year. If I see the numbers coming in noticeably higher before the weekend, I'll provide some daily estimates for the week like I have in the past. In regard to One Piece, we definitely need to watch how its second weekend/week behaves. Toei has really gone big on it this time (it's honestly one of the biggest promotions I've seen from any distributor), and it's receiving a giveaway (either a card pack or deck, haven't confirmed yet, of the TCG that just launched last month) beginning on the 13th, right at the start (roughly) of the holiday period. This is a particularly notable giveaway (pretty expensive to give out), and is definitely one of the "bigger" ones (unlike a poster, for instance) that could certainly drive repeats if there are any exclusive cards in the pack/deck. |
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
I assume Toei's goal is to get the film across the 10b line, which shouldn't be too hard off this opening. This seems a bit ambitious but they *might* try to take #1 2022 from JJK I guess. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Aug 07, 2022 5:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
And rija, JustLurking answered your question quite well on the last page (last post). By saying Demon Slayer "broke the box-office", it's not just a way of saying it did better than everything else. It was on more screens and seats, and playing for more hours (21 hours a day), than anything can ever really achieve again due to the pandemic. And despite that, it sold out ~77% of all its shows all weekend (and on other occasions, too). Your typical big blockbusters only receive HALF of the seating/showtimes that Demon Slayer received, and even the biggest releases (like the last couple Conan films, Frozen II, Jujutsu Kaisen, and now One Piece) still fall quite a bit short of what Demon Slayer had. It's not possible (literally, as in mathematically) for a standard big blockbuster to challenge Demon Slayer because it needs to sell well over 100% of its given seats. And for those that receive seating/showings "close" (though still distant) to it, they have to still sell out up to 90% (or more) of every showing across the nation all weekend to do it. There's the most minuscule of margins for something to beat Demon Slayer's OW (and many other records), that it actually is practically impossible. This is why "non-Demon Slayer" records or charts might be a thing to consider. In short, Demon Slayer sold more tickets than almost every film is even given seating. It essentially hit the ceiling of what's possible in Japan. And the few films that receive enough seating to "challenge" it, have to sell an unrealistic amount (~90% or more) to do it. |
|
| Author: | KNYtracker777 [ Sun Aug 07, 2022 6:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
IMAX is going to triple its theaters (from 39 to 100) in Japan by 2024. This should increase OW and general revenue for all movies afterwards, right corpse? |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
That's awesome news. IMAX does a killing in Japan, so good to see them expanding. (Feel it's been at 39 for several years now, though could be wrong.) And yeah, that'll help drive up the average ticket prices a bit, and thus give a slight boost to OW potential. Premium formats in general (4DX/MX4D, IMAX, Dolby Cinema) are very popular in the market, so the more made available, the better it should be as long as they keep standard showings plentiful still, too. Leaning too far into 3D, giving films 75-90% 3D showings over standard (~2012-2013), was one of the reasons the format largely died in the market. Audiences ended abandoned the format due it being often the only option available in their schedules and weren't going to pay the extra money. Films were having 70/80% 3D shares between 2010-2012, then that plummeted to 20% or less from 2013 onward. And now it's nearly dead. There still needs to be a cheaper (standard) option that's easily available too. |
|
| Author: | Kanroji Mitsuri [ Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
TGM doing giveaway from 08/15 → 600,000 copies https://topgunmovie.jp/news/2022/08/08/topgun0808/ |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
Kingdom II is also having a giveaway next week, I think. Up to three films now (One Piece, Top Gun, Kingdom II). I even think that the Gundam film that's still playing has a giveaway coming up, maybe next week, too, if I'm not mistaken. Obon Festival has become a giveaway extravaganza for moviegoers this year! |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
Here is the One Piece giveaway beginning on August 13th:  It's an entire 40 card starter deck (15 unique cards) for the TCG by Bandai Namco that launched last month, featuring characters and card designs from the movie that aren't available in the first booster set in stores. Limited to 500,000 copies. This is quite an expensive giveaway (the regular starter decks for the game retail for ¥990), and is going to significantly boost next Saturday (and the second weekend itself). Oh, and it has stage greetings on the 13th. I, for one, cannot wait for the game to launch in the US (and other English markets) later this year (pre-release is Sept.). |
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
Corpse wrote: Kingdom II is also having a giveaway next week, I think. Up to three films now (One Piece, Top Gun, Kingdom II). I even think that the Gundam film that's still playing has a giveaway coming up, maybe next week, too, if I'm not mistaken. Obon Festival has become a giveaway extravaganza for moviegoers this year! Wtf lool |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
Just checked Kingdom II. Its giveaway (1 million strong) begins on August 11th (Mountain Day, national holiday). We should consider the holiday, this Thursday, the start of Obon Festival. Since Friday is between a holiday and the first official day of Obon Festival, it'll probably act as a pseudo-holiday with many businesses closed. So, look for August 11-15th to be really strong for the box-office, and likely a couple days after. The Kingdom II giveaway is sizable, too, a 48-page manga. That'll definitely help it out (its holds have been a little eh). |
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:34 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
2.25b - 1.571M admissions for OP Red. Haven't seen a breakdown to see for OD yet. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
JustLurking wrote: 2.25b - 1.571M admissions for OP Red. Haven't seen a breakdown to see for OD yet. Sigh of relief I just had. Right in the middle of my range (and yours). All the records or notable achievements, and the positions on the charts I posted with the est. range, will also hold. 
|
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
I'm assuming the fact that they didn't post about it on twitter means it probably barely missed on the OD record (something like 1.24b OD - 1.015b sun checks out the % drop on mimorin), but better wait to be sure. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
If Sunday also came in above ¥1 billion, it'll be only the second film to have recorded two days above the mark. (Demon Slayer obviously the first.) |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
Also, I think this practically locks up ¥10 billion. I don't like calling this milestone a lock, but with an opening this huge, it's almost unmissable. Just needs a 4.44x multiplier, which would be the lowest of any One Piece film. This opening will get the public talking though (and right before a holiday period), and Monday is already looking really impressive. |
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:49 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
Worth noting that monday is currently trending for a huge 200k -aeon (~270k usuals?), which far beats out JJK's 185k. EDIT: ninja'd on the monday reaction 
|
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Estimate |
JustLurking wrote: I'm assuming the fact that they didn't post about it on twitter means it probably barely missed on the OD record (something like 1.24b OD - 1.015b sun checks out the % drop on mimorin), but better wait to be sure. Just saw this on tw  Can't imagine they'd advertise 1.2b+ OD on tv and not mention OD record if they had it, so yeah, I guess it will probably be something like this. Though even if this doesn't take it, shows that OD record can and probably will fall at some point. Weekend records though, likely not. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
Yeah, the Monday is looking a bit ridiculous, honestly. It's Summer Vacation, which helps, but we're not really in a holiday period itself yet, and it's looking at less than a 50% drop from Sunday. The Monday might be comparable to the first Saturday of a lot of big films. Of course, when you sell something like ~70% of all your weekend seats, there's likely to be some spillover into Monday. Monday is also Aeon Cinema Day, so it's probably even higher than expected. |
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
If it keeps holding well, can definitely take #1 2022 from JJK. Though I guess there is a ? in Shinkai's film if that breaks out big. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:03 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
JustLurking wrote: If it keeps holding well, can definitely take #1 2022 from JJK. Though I guess there is a ? in Shinkai's film if that breaks out big. It's possible. I think it's a very tall hill to climb, and the fact that it's likely going to hit ¥10 billion is already nuts. We'll probably have a rough idea after Obon Festival concludes / after its third weekend if it has a shot. It is a weird situation though, that I think is exclusive to Japan. JJK0 was released in 2021, but is a 2022 film. And Shinkai's new film is a 2022 release, but will likely be ruled a 2023 film. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:11 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
And guys... we just had another film beat The Matrix Reloaded's OW (revenue and admissions), which held the OW record for 17-years and was long considered one of those unbeatable records of the past since it had a shit ton of previews added in. But Demon Slayer totally obliterated it in 2020, and One Piece just beat it this weekend (not by a lot, but it did it) too. And Jujutsu Kaisen probably would have in 2021 as well if given a Saturday release (or if the Friday wasn't a special date for it). So, a long-standing 17-year-old OW record (in revenue and admissions) has been beaten twice in the last two years (and could have been a third time, too). |
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:14 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
Corpse wrote: JustLurking wrote: If it keeps holding well, can definitely take #1 2022 from JJK. Though I guess there is a ? in Shinkai's film if that breaks out big. It's possible. I think it's a very tall hill to climb, and the fact that it's likely going to hit ¥10 billion is already nuts. We'll probably have a rough idea after Obon Festival concludes / after its third weekend if it has a shot. It is a weird situation though, that I think is exclusive to Japan. JJK0 was released in 2021, but is a 2022 film. And Shinkai's new film is a 2022 release, but will likely be ruled a 2023 film. I mean, if monday is this strong, and with holidays on thu/fri, weekdays might come close to KnY's 3b week and get, say, 2.5-3b (though monday might be spillovering from weekend, but let's go with that assumption for now), so that will be 5b or so by friday. If giveaway can keep the drop contained to, say, 25% or so, that will put it at 6-6.5b by end of second weekend. From there on I think missing 10b is almost impossible and it only needs a little over 2x that to catch up to JJK. I can definitely see a path for it. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
Sat: ¥1,232,095,230 / 869,407 Sun: ¥1,022,141,800 / 710,145 WKND: ¥2,254,237,030 / 1,579,552 Just shy of that OD record, but hey, it makes up for it by having a Sunday over ¥1 billion to be only the second film in history to achieve two days above ¥1 billion. And that's a very good Sun. hold, too, good news for upcoming legs. Foresight: Was I ninja'd Edit: No? Good. 
|
|
| Author: | Lugia [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:27 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
What an impressive opening this is truly insane I hope both of you are right about it reaching 10b. Maybe you know more about this but from what I saw the reviews arent very good which might affect the numbers after Obon. If anyone have any insight on what the general public thinks of the movie, please fills us in. Good word of mouth is really important to reach such milestones. |
|
| Author: | JustLurking [ Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Japan Box-Office: One Piece Film Red - WKND Actual! |
Corpse wrote: Sat: ¥1,232,095,230 / 869,407 Sun: ¥1,022,141,800 / 710,145 WKND: ¥2,254,237,030 / 1,579,552 Just shy of that OD record, but hey, it makes up for it by having a Sunday over ¥1 billion to be only the second film in history to achieve two days above ¥1 billion. And that's a very good Sun. hold, too, good news for upcoming legs. Foresight: Was I ninja'd Edit: No? Good. Yeah incredible weekend overall tbh. Lugia wrote: What an impressive opening this is truly insane I hope both of you are right about it reaching 10b. Maybe you know more about this but from what I saw the reviews arent very good which might affect the numbers after Obon. If anyone have any insight on what the general public thinks of the movie, please fills us in. Good word of mouth is really important to reach such milestones. I don't know how the reaction to the film is, but if it's that close after 2nd weekend I don't think reception matters since it would need to just start dropping super hard to miss, unless WoM is so bad that it's straight up toxic or something. |
|
| Page 850 of 952 | All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|