Thanks for the posting the latter updates, Kanroji!

Higher than I, and most, were expecting! Very strong growth throughout the day, especially, again, in the evening/night. I'll have an estimate (using Blue Sapphire as a reference now) later and a revised weekend projection.

Fantastic Beasts 3 handled Conan's mega debut well, too, down 40% or a bit less (38/39%) versus last Saturday. Sunday's hold will be stronger, so perhaps looking at a second weekend drop of 30-35% (possibly for a ¥500 million second weekend, which no Hollywood film has managed since 2019). Not amazing, but quite good and helps with its goal of reaching ¥5 billion (which no Hollywood film has done in 2.5 years).

Friday: ¥524 million (based on Toho's report of it being up 24% versus Blue Sapphire) / ~355,000-370,000
Saturday (Est.): ¥775-800 million / ~535,000-555,000

Conan has always been strong on Sunday, pretty much matching Saturday, more or less, so something similar should happen here. DC22 and DC23 (this one had a discount Sunday) managed Sunday increases, while DC20, DC21 and DC24 saw slight decreases.

So, my revised projection for the weekend is:

OW: ~¥1.525-1.625 billion ($12-13 million) / 1,050,000-1,150,000
3-Day: ~¥2.050-2.150 billion ($16-17 million) / 1,405,000-1,505,000

The low-end of each range takes into account a slight Sunday decrease, while the high-end takes into account a slight Sunday increase. I feel pretty confident in these. (And yes, the USD figures are less than desired due to the 20-year-low exchange rate; they would have been a couple or even several million higher until recently, but it is what it is.)

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - First Saturday Ticket Sales:

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL.

x52,823 > x83,351 > 103,770 > 131,258 > 166,607 > 205,052 > 243,101 > 262,947 > 309,986 > 369,438 > 382,133 - Detective Conan 25

Previous Major Openers (First Saturday Results) [2015-]
142,242 > 181,599 > 276,561 > 336,368 > 367,422 > 461,081 > 520,550 > 559,281 > 689,893 > 890,103 > 983,582 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train
x73,340 > 116,543 > 149,878 > 190,292 > 241,845 > 295,857 > 326,797 > 363,351 > 406,474 > 445,035 > 452,803 - Frozen II
x84,264 > 127,449 > 151,727 > 192,905 > 231,774 > 269,647 > 302,613 > 322,380 > 359,959 > 402,813 > 416,776 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0
x52,823 > x83,351 > 103,770 > 131,258 > 166,607 > 205,052 > 243,101 > 262,947 > 309,986 > 369,438 > 382,133 - Detective Conan 25
x43,557 > x71,681 > x93,992 > 122,021 > 151,314 > 175,522 > 207,502 > 229,798 > 277,427 > 342,959 > 348,024 - Detective Conan 21
x39,732 > x64,094 > x90,575 > 118,008 > 155,118 > 174,599 > 209,900 > 236,090 > 282,310 > 341,011 > 345,143 - Detective Conan 22
x46,010 > x75,560 > x92,582 > 120,114 > 161,255 > 191,961 > 224,019 > 243,554 > 278,997 > 323,437 > 332,987 - Detective Conan 23
x43,953 > x57,204 > x81,751 > 110,262 > 126,170 > 168,362 > 195,657 > 206,362 > 254,352 > 324,272 > 330,349 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
x63,507 > x90,040 > 109,101 > 135,314 > 160,966 > 198,557 > 226,060 > 243,745 > 274,998 > 321,145 > 330,262 - Detective Conan 24
x74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
x52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
x39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20
x63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold
x37,688 > x51,536 > x78,625 > x96,317 > 110,615 > 147,556 > 158,990 > 176,601 > 209,065 > 278,130 > 283,482 - Star Wars VIII
x31,686 > x52,347 > x68,672 > x89,283 > 121,223 > 142,018 > 169,920 > 190,957 > 224,255 > 262,073 > 279,289 - Weathering With You
x31,164 > x55,849 > x76,346 > x99,994 > 132,246 > 162,745 > 189,448 > 204,712 > 234,474 > 267,010 > 274,872 - Toy Story 4
x37,449 > x52,412 > x79,646 > x93,066 > 107,529 > 143,882 > 158,307 > 172,013 > 206,816 > 263,918 > 274,621 - Star Wars IX
x25,090 > x33,718 > x65,555 > x82,521 > x92,695 > 133,900 > 157,507 > 164,428 > 207,078 > 266,202 > 271,313 - Aladdin
x30,914 > x42,990 > x62,982 > x85,904 > 102,185 > 140,690 > 163,724 > 174,087 > 209,595 > 261,046 > 266,911 - Jurassic World 2
x35,649 > x44,489 > x58,686 > x69,098 > x88,527 > 103,765 > 131,753 > 161,863 > 196,572 > 255,793 > 262,671 - Beauty and the Beast
x62,777 > x85,760 > 102,106 > 125,163 > 154,198 > 176,945 > 191,109 > 218,787 > 228,459 > 254,958 > 258,108 - Evangelion 3.0+1.0
x40,886 > x48,964 > x59,752 > x94,729 > 107,521 > 119,125 > 142,006 > 167,255 > 178,584 > 239,359 > 248,613 - Avengers: Endgame
x37,850 > x52,209 > x81,753 > 101,473 > 119,605 > 161,180 > 177,321 > 188,231 > 210,871 > 235,354 > 241,332 - Code Blue
x29,737 > x39,487 > x58,051 > x75,167 > x89,740 > 121,289 > 138,066 > 152,556 > 176,442 > 221,089 > 227,704 - Spider-Man: No Way Home
x00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 227,517 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F
x25,910 > x32,060 > x57,063 > x73,610 > x84,101 > 120,336 > 134,258 > 141,719 > 171,620 > 211,793 > 217,221 - Fantastic Beasts 2
x27,613 > x39,274 > x61,265 > x72,524 > x84,634 > 118,828 > 131,703 > 144,186 > 168,094 > 208,734 > 213,125 - Fantastic Beasts 3
x00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 209,804 - Detective Conan 19
x17,886 > x31,861 > x46,109 > x55,320 > x84,164 > x94,353 > 114,193 > 134,889 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 202,075 - Your Name.
x00,000 > x00,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 000,000 > 196,491 - Jurassic World
x26,792 > x41,467 > x59,601 > x72,157 > x99,348 > 117,861 > 135,650 > 147,193 > 165,271 > 185,998 > 193,053 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
x25,356 > x43,237 > x55,116 > x64,925 > x89,017 > 104,943 > 124,039 > 135,701 > 153,608 > 183,235 > 191,730 - One Piece: Stampede
x30,062 > x52,132 > x69,597 > x80,552 > 115,470 > 128,413 > 141,480 > 160,560 > 183,484 > 185,333 > 187,901 - Doraemon 38
x22,790 > x29,291 > x44,300 > x56,439 > x65,324 > x90,408 > 101,566 > 107,419 > 130,880 > 166,900 > 174,835 - Spider-Man: Far From Home
x31,532 > x41,391 > x68,734 > x84,425 > 116,091 > 129,657 > 143,882 > 158,848 > 171,269 > 174,628 > 174,797 - Doraemon 37
x14,564 > x18,126 > x38,232 > x49,350 > x55,948 > x82,147 > x96,840 > 104,265 > 129,089 > 162,764 > 166,650 - Fantastic Beasts
x17,244 > x32,719 > x45,130 > x53,048 > x74,252 > x91,218 > 108,787 > 116,698 > 136,475 > 158,887 > 165,385 - The Lion King
x29,064 > x44,099 > x66,420 > x80,789 > 104,701 > 124,875 > 137,005 > 144,884 > 153,968 > 157,751 > 157,910 - Doraemon 39

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Saturday Admissions

Biggest Openers Since 2015:

Saturday Results (~70% of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
983,582/1,278,438 (76.9% capacity), [267/6,080] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020)
452,803/1,077,542 (42.0% capacity), [267/3,777] - Frozen II (Nov., 2019)
416,776/1,080,891 (38.6% capacity), [268/3,872] - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (Dec., 2021)
382,133/1,064,108 (35.9% capacity), [267/4,965] - Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween (Apr., 2022)
348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
345,143/655,976 (52.6% capacity), [249/1,832] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
332,987/725,315 (45.9% capacity), [258/2,202] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
330,262/1,121,775 (29.4% capacity), [255/4,793] - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (Apr., 2021)
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
283,482/670,255 (42.3% capacity), [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
279,289/719,848 (38.8% capacity), [261/2,370] - Weathering With You (July, 2019)
274,872/775,754 (35.4% capacity), [262/2,657] - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)
274,621/729,821 (37.6% capacity), [267/2,669] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dec., 2019)
271,313/719,670 (37.7% capacity), [261/2,374] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
266,911/816,498 (32.7% capacity), [251/3,196] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
258,108/705,935 (36.6% capacity), [257/3,194] - Evangelion: 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Mar., 2021)
248,613/533,783 (46.6% capacity), [258/2,293] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
241,332/608,132 (39.7% capacity), [250/1,979] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
227,704/679,600 (33.5% capacity), [273/3,061] - Spider-Man: No Way Home (Jan., 2022)
227,517/473,967 (48.0% capacity), [221/1,582] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
217,221/919,956 (23.6% capacity), [258/3,250] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
213,125/644,497 (30.1% capacity), [272/2,832] - Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (Apr., 2022)
209,804/462,825 (45.3% capacity), [229/1,366] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
205,137/648,401 (31.6% capacity), [259/2,096] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)
202,075/451,836 (44.7% capacity), [218/1,257] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
196,491/520,369 (37.8% capacity), [237/1,744] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
193,053/648,160 (29.8% capacity), [252/2,037] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
191,730/585,196 (32.8% capacity), [254/1,787] - One Piece: Stampede (Aug., 2019)
187,901/485,825 (38.7% capacity), [235/1,574] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
174,835/517,134 (33.8% capacity), [260/1,835] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
174,797/501,322 (34.8% capacity), [240/1,487] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
166,650/766,440 (21.7% capacity), [241/2,556] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
165,385/471,596 (35.1% capacity), [262/2,020] - The Lion King (Aug., 2019)
157,910/547,894 (28.8% capacity), [252/1,655] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
157,739/484,007 (32.6% capacity), [247/1,422] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
151,875/419,163 (36.2% capacity), [251/1,655] - Avengers: Infinity War (Apr., 2018)
139,061/668,663 (20.8% capacity), [236/2,346] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
136,031/515,406 (26.4% capacity), [233/1,460] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
136,021/413,696 (32.9% capacity), [259/1,802] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (July, 2019)

Think the discrepancy here is the 500 theater number, I don't get where it comes from, I browsed the conan website and didnt see any mention of it. Went and did a quick count on the theater list and it comes nowhere near that number. I sort of just assumed it was right since CR reported on it but I just can't understand where it comes from.

https://theater.toho.co.jp/toho_theater ... e2022.html

I can't find any source for CR's 500 claim either. I don't know where that author got the number from, but their sources aren't it (they just link to the Toho theater page).

Since its share at the usual locations versus nationwide is more comparable to past films, based on Toho's 24% better than Blue Sapphire report at least, it's probably safe to presume its count is probably in that 370-420 or so range. Fantastic Beasts 3 is playing on all premium formats too, so that's probably the difference. There's also at least one theater, Movix Sendai, that is closed from the sizable earthquake near Fukushima last month. It's reopening on April 29th. There could be a couple others.

Nothing was playing in the premium formats when last year's film opened, so it got them all, the first (and only so far) time in history. It still sold slightly less tickets than Blue Sapphire though, so that abnormal TC didn't really help.

Regardless of its TC, it clearly doesn't matter since it's matching/beating the most recent films anyway. And Sunday's reservations are quite monstrous. Most showings from open to ~5pm are over half full (or close) before the day even begins. Sunday nights are slow, so an increase is hard to predict right now, but it's at least going to come very near/match Saturday if it doesn't increase.

Another Source for 500 theatres. Yahoo Japan citing Real Sound here
Link : https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/e514a ... 06d35cdbf0



From Movie Walker : https://moviewalker.jp/news/article/1077400/



Original Real Sound Article where it was mentioned 500 theatres

Link : https://realsound.jp/movie/2022/03/post-994819.html

500, yeah. We'll see what the actuals come out to be on Monday, but judging by the Friday (based on Toho's 24% over Blue Sapphire report), it's doing very, very poorly then outside the usual locations. Maybe Toho's report is wonky. If not, it sold ~257,000 admissions at the usual locations (267 theaters, or 53% of its overall count) on Friday, meaning it only sold another 100,000 or so from the remaining 233 theaters (or 47% of the overall count).

It's doing amazing, of course, it's just odd that 47% of its locations are doing so poorly.

Corpse, may be TOHO misquoted that (may be it should be Scarlet Bullet) or so.... Yeah, for sure, can not see terrible errors all at once. However, I too have doubts if one mis-quote in Real Sound is being used as source in other articles (I mean internet is full of copy+paste) Well, for sure, Monday will decide the fate of this film, most importantly the numbers, as I want Bride of Halloween to somehow and by any means pass Scarlet Bullet whether the improvement be ¥1M or ¥2M (✷‿✷)

Care to do the 3pm-7pm (or 9pm if I'm not awake yet) again, Kanroji? Or JustLurking.

As always, no biggie if you guys are busy, I can go back and do it in the morning. I appreciate it either way.

It's looking good for 350,000+, I think, but hard to say how much above that figure. Remember that Sunday evening/nights are weaker than Saturday's.

I will do that for you, Corpse ^^

It's 325,442 for the 7pm update Kanroji. Corpse uses the website's number for that one, not the live update on the side.

Thanks. I will correct it on next update

Thanks for the help this weekend, Kanroji.

I'll post the final figure and other charts here soon. I'll try to post an estimate, but it seems difficult without really knowing what to compare it to. The numbers are so big, that very small percentages put it above/below other films.

Like, even using the more conservatives estimates/comparisons likely puts it above ¥1.5 billion and 1 million admissions for the weekend, and ¥2 billion and around 1.4 million admissions for the 3-day. And that's humongous, obviously. It'd be the second biggest OW / 3-Day in the franchise in revenue in this case, and make it the fourth film in the franchise to break 1 million admissions over the weekend (but the last 3 did 1.012-1.144 million, all very close, so it's on par with them it appears). But... if it does just a few percentage points better than those comparisons, then it begins to challenge the franchise record, Frozen II, JJK, etc. There are 4 films between ¥1.609-1.629 billion that come into play.

In short: It's neither big or small enough to really say where it's landed! Ultimately, we'll have to wait until Monday to really know since it's just so close to a lot of stuff. My guess: 2nd biggest OW, just behind Scarlett Bullet in revenue (but we could be talking single digits here, even less than 5%, so it doesn't really matter), and either second or third in admissions (again, it's so close, high or low, it doesn't exactly matter).