What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36942
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Given those inflation numbers it has a chance but I won't bet on it.
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Fri May 18, 2018 8:43 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39750
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Avengers 4? I think that cliffhanger, Thanos being established and with the likely end of Captain America and Iron Man's stories, it has the ceiling to do it
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Fri May 18, 2018 9:41 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 24836 Location: Classified
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
I’m don’t think $900m will be broken again by anything anytime soon. But it would require a blockbuster opening with the legs of a holiday musical. So if Frozen 2 had a $200m 5 day and the same legs as the first .... it would still fall short.
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Fri May 18, 2018 11:59 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39750
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
With TFA at 9 years you'd think it should start being in danger soon, especially with this being the 2 mega blockbusters a year era, but everything still feels like a reach.
Shrek 2 adjusts to 764 million, can Shrek 5 be much bigger?
Barbie 2 and Top Gun 3 face an uphill climb quality wise to match the first's Best Picture nominee quality.
Disney has done dirty things to the Star Wars brand, and while Endgame now adjusts to one billion, it's hard to see Avengers ever reaching their late 2010s zenith ever again even if they have big RDJ comeback movie.
Avatar already blew its shot. Mario Bros would need to increase too much even if it brings out some big guns like Yoshi and Wario and Illumination doesn't have it in them quality wise. Inside Out I believe has peaked taking advantage of a weaker summer.
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 12:19 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 19291 Location: San Diego
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
I just looked at the domestic chart and forgot how close NWH got to Endgame, holy shit. Without covid idk if it would have done better cause that's insane.
Even though Star Wars has so many entries in the top 25 douvtful they will ever beat TFA... unless maybe they resurrect Luke or something? Idk. Think the next Avengers will be big not probably won't get to NWH unless the roster is craaazy.
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:45 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68061 Location: Seattle, WA
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
An RDJ Iron Man / Bale Batman crossover would do it.
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:16 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39750
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
I think my pick would be an Avengers movie with the return of Stark with Deadpool, Fantastic Four/X-Men and Spiderman or something. Looking at Pixar having their biggest movie ever after some rough years, it shows when your brand is ingrained in people as theirs was, you can come back as strong as ever eventually. Likewise, the Marvel brand was so strong for so many years, that equity won't go away any time soon, they just need the right project like Inside Out 2.
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:15 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6289 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
publicenemy#1 wrote: I just looked at the domestic chart and forgot how close NWH got to Endgame, holy shit. Without covid idk if it would have done better cause that's insane.
Even though Star Wars has so many entries in the top 25 douvtful they will ever beat TFA... unless maybe they resurrect Luke or something? Idk. Think the next Avengers will be big not probably won't get to NWH unless the roster is craaazy. Star Wars is out of contention as a mega blockbuster now that they've gotten rid of all the original cast IMO. 1977-1983 nostalgia is what was driving the grosses for the prequels and new trilogy. A whole new trilogy with no connection to those original characters is looking at Star Trek '09 numbers best case scenario IMO. Or judging by how badly Solo did, could be a lot less...
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:24 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12084
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Last 3 years were a "surprise" film doing $630M+ (TGM, Barbie, Inside Out 2). I feel like the film that takes #1 could very well come up out of the blue again if not a heavily hyped sequel.
It's very sad to see how bad the IP of Star Wars has been damaged. It was the #1 film of all time in 1977, iconic again in 1999 with the prequels, then again in 2015 with the original cast coming back.
They seem to get their groove back every 15-20 years so may not be until 2030 that we start seeing a comeback but not possible with this current cast.
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Wed Jul 10, 2024 5:18 pm |
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flip1
Speed Racer
Joined: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:02 pm Posts: 195
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Nothing right now has the hype to do it, but by 2030 something should pass it with the help of inflation
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Thu Jul 11, 2024 5:59 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3200
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
5 of the top 10 infl adjusted boxoffice champions in the domestic market are Star Wars movies. https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office- ... n-adjustedGeorge Lucas, what did you do?! Look at what you've done!
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Tue Sep 10, 2024 11:16 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39750
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
TFA 1.2 billion adjusted is so huge, nothing's coming even within shouting distance of that.
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Wed Sep 11, 2024 3:32 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12084
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
We'll get something topping it before the end of the decade with the rate ticket inflation has gone. We could have 2-3 $625M movies this year so we're already 67% the way there. It's just going to be a hyped zeitgeist movie that puts it over. Post 2000, 14 films are at $750M+ films adjusted. Within 2-3 years $800M+. Star Wars: Episode VII 2015 $1,212,100,009 Avatar 2009 $1,090,957,388 Avengers: Endgame 2019 $1,068,078,692 Spider-Man: No Way Home 2021 $887,187,869 The Avengers 2012 $861,930,509 Jurassic World 2015 $861,041,461 Black Panther 2018 $855,543,489 The Dark Knight 2008 $834,825,191 Avengers: Infinity War 2018 $811,911,741 Shrek 2 2004 $796,565,850 Spider-Man 2002 $791,805,575 Top Gun: Maverick 2022 $765,228,623 Star Wars: Episode VIII 2017 $757,815,458 Maybe Coraline will get there by 2099? 
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Wed Sep 11, 2024 8:47 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3200
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Off topic but I'm still shocked at Spiderman: NWH's performance, not just the milestones it reached but WHEN it reached them. There must have been a surge in "I'm tired of being cooped up in the house" sentiments right as it released during the pandemic period.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Thu Sep 12, 2024 12:07 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12084
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
NWH was so absurdly crazy. Without Covid it would probably have made a run at SW. Though maybe the pent up demand of not seeing a film in a theater made it make more. Felt like TGM was for older audiences showing back up in droves and NWH for younger as different but eerily similar type box office events.
Though DP&W essentially doubled its box office with Wolverine from the first 2 and NWH essentially did the same in at least doubling it's predecessors.
2019: Far from Home $390,532,085 2021: No Way Home $804,793,477
2018: DP2 $325M 2024: DP&W $620M+
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Fri Sep 13, 2024 1:37 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39750
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Shrek 5 now coming out in Dec 2026 gives it a better chance though I still think it doesn't make it.
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Mon Jan 13, 2025 2:58 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12084
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
3 of the 4 Shreks adjust to $569M+ and Shrek 2 $862M so it's only 8% off from what it would need to beat TFA if it somehow reached Shrek 2 admissions.
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Mon Jan 13, 2025 6:02 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23096 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
I think Shrek 2 was the perfect storm of a sequel to an original family film that had incredible WOM and that appealed to all four quadrants. It was also released while box office was booming (peak BO period 2001-2004).
I do think Shrek 5 will be huge - but perhaps more in line with $700-$800m. I believe Jumanji also opens that December too.
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Mon Jan 13, 2025 8:48 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12084
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Ballpark estimate even with conservative 3% 2025 and 2026 price increases, Inside Out 2 would be at $693M in 2026. Add in another half year of 1.5% (since Shrek is opening in Dec) bring that up to $703M. Yes, IO2 would be the equivalent of a $700M+ film by the time Shrek 5 comes out.
However, if we do 4% increase for 2025 and 2026 instead (which was the increase we saw from 2022 to 2023), Inside Out 2 is closer to $706M and with another half year of increase from a Dec release would give it closer to $720M by then.
I expect theaters to be ridiculous in price increases to make up for Covid, strikes, and the high profile calendar of 2026 films for premium pricing will lead to a film beating TFA by 2027 if Shrek doesn't do it. We also still haven't seen the movie production impact from the fires yet as well and I wouldn't be shocked to see some more high profile 2025 movies shift to 2026 and 2027.
Saying it here first, we will see a $1B+ domestic film before LA hosts the Summer Olympics in 2028.
The Passion sequel is supposed to film this year with likely an Easter 2026 run. That will certainly make lots.
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Tue Jan 14, 2025 2:56 am |
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Darth Indiana Bond
007
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:43 pm Posts: 11515 Location: Wouldn't you like to know
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
I think it will be hard to predict. Usually the mega legendary breakout all time box office hits come from a perfect storm effect that cannot be predicted. I think the only exceptions here are Endgame being super predictable, and then the anomalies of Titanic and Avatar.
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Tue Jan 14, 2025 5:04 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 11014
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
A sequel to something will break it, i just dont know what.
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Thu Jan 16, 2025 1:07 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 12084
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Sequels coming out in from Dec. 2025 - Dec. 2026 and predecessors:
-The Passion will adjust to $746,408,250 next year (Passion - Apr. 2026) -Shrek 2 will adjust to $862,381,720 (Shrek 5 - Dec. 2025) -Avengers will adjust to $1,191,018,025 next year (Avengers Doomsday - May 2026) -Avatar 2 will adjust to $812,162,659 next year (Avatar 3 Dec. 2026) -Spider-man NWH adjusts to $989,306,080 next year (Spider-man Jul. 2026) -LOTR ROTK adjusts to $770,597,684 next year (LOTR Hunt For Gollum - Dec. 2026)
Less likely record breaking but other franchise extensions in TGM sequel in 2027? Black Panther 3 in development. New Jurassic Park in 2025. SW Mandalorian. 9 of the top 10 films of all time domestic have some type of new iteration coming aside from Titanic. Just need a perfect storm but out of the films above I feel The Passion could retain a significant portion of its audience with a sequel 22 years later from peak gross.
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Thu Jan 16, 2025 2:11 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 23096 Location: Melbourne Australia
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Resurrection will possibly be released in 2027 at this stage. The script is done but production may not begin until later this year. Plus more time will be needed in post-production due to the increased requirement fir CGI as the film will encompass the fall of the angels, heaven, hell and the martyr deaths of the apostles etc. it will be epic.
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Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:39 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 68061 Location: Seattle, WA
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
O wrote: Sequels coming out in from Dec. 2025 - Dec. 2026 and predecessors:
-The Passion will adjust to $746,408,250 next year (Passion - Apr. 2026) -Shrek 2 will adjust to $862,381,720 (Shrek 5 - Dec. 2025) -Avengers will adjust to $1,191,018,025 next year (Avengers Doomsday - May 2026) -Avatar 2 will adjust to $812,162,659 next year (Avatar 3 Dec. 2026) -Spider-man NWH adjusts to $989,306,080 next year (Spider-man Jul. 2026) -LOTR ROTK adjusts to $770,597,684 next year (LOTR Hunt For Gollum - Dec. 2026) No film will pass TFA in the foreseeable future, let's just get that out of the way. But any film that comes out and is massive will not just need to have history/nostalgia to back it up but also need to be in an excitement stage, which the Avengers is not. That has passed, it was in 2019. People are well over it. Spider-Man, just by the nature that it remorphs so often with a new actor, has a chance of being massive but I also feel its peak was NWH, so I don't think it will be as huge as we expect. LOTR is done. Hobbit proved that. Avatars will continue to be big, of course, but none are going to suddenly make a break for $900m+. Shrek 5 will be Incredibles 2 big, but having four movies already dilutes the demand for another. The Passion 2 is the most likely to challenge TFA but it will still fall far short because the first only made $370m. Titanic made $600m six years prior. It was not near one of the biggest movies ever even at the time. I honestly think the only film that can beat TFA is (or was) a new Star Wars, but Disney have killed that with the millions of spinoff series on Disney+. An interesting idea for a film that might challenge is probably something where a bunch of movies/characters combine into one, but it would need to be characters that are currently popular, so having Rambo and Conan the Barbarian and RoboCop and Ripley in a movie together as those characters wouldn't even be close because nobody cares about those anymore. The mashup would need to be, like, Barbie and Deadpool and the characters from Wicked or something, but even then it's not guaranteed. The idea of these characters being in a movie together would need to make sense, which of course those examples do not at all. Basically the only way I see TFA being taken down is with a NWH/Endgame scenario, but I don't think there's any franchise or world ripe for that entry yet, and probably won't be for another 20 years. And before that day comes something mediocre but generally popular will beat TFA anyway, just because of inflation. The Moana 2 of 2035 will be reaching those numbers because of inflation rather than real demand and popularity.
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Sun Jan 19, 2025 7:10 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 39750
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 Re: What will it take to beat Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
I don't see Marvel and Star Wars beating their 2010s peaks. I still like Shrek 5's chance the most. Maybe if an Avatar movie looked especially spectacular or the 3rd movie really set up the 4th movie as an Endgame like conclusion.
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Sun Jan 19, 2025 5:58 pm |
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