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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18959 Location: San Diego
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Fall Guy weekend thread
$3.15m for Wed/Thursday previews
Deadline is saying 35-40m which seems decent to me? Ya it probably won't be profitable but for a Gosling/Blunt pairing seems fine.
Tarot - 715k
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Fri May 03, 2024 2:57 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38323
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Civil War only made 2.9 in previews so I'm surprised they would estimate that high
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri May 03, 2024 3:04 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21931 Location: Places
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
WOM seems very good, if it somehow got to $40m, it is like at mid to high 100s.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Fri May 03, 2024 4:45 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20449 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
A debut in the 30s will be good enough for well over 100m.
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Fri May 03, 2024 5:16 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18959 Location: San Diego
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Deadline now saying $10.4m Friday, $28m opening. Knew it.
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Fri May 03, 2024 5:30 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
This could miss $80M. Could be a rough month until May long weekend.
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Fri May 03, 2024 8:11 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21931 Location: Places
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Joker 2 on this weekend would have made an utter fortune.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Fri May 03, 2024 9:39 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6238
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
I think actual will be lower.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat May 04, 2024 12:28 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Winner of the weekend is The Phantom Menace. It pulled a $2.7M Friday and could get to $9M over the weekend. This is probably the first time since Rogue One (2016) when a SW movie has gone on the upside of expectations.
20 Beauty and the Beast $504,481,165 2017 21 Finding Dory $486,295,561 2016 22 Frozen II $477,373,578 2019 23 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace $474,544,677 1999
Menace will jump from #23 to #21 on the alltime list. Won't likely have legs but another $16M in future releases will get to $500M+.
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Sat May 04, 2024 1:26 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38323
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Fall Guy is a combination of genres that aren't really as popular anymore (action, comedy, romance), still its gross would be ok if it had a smaller budget like the Lost City
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sat May 04, 2024 11:53 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20449 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
28m is ok for a counter programming comedy. Not for a summer kickoff film though.
Fall guy should’ve opened next week and swapped with Apes. Mother’s Day is historically good for counterprogramming (Great Gatsby, Neighbors, Dark Shadows, Bridesmaids).
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Sat May 04, 2024 12:03 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Got $44.4M in AU cash grants and in addition a 16.5% tax rebate.
That means if the public reported after rebates budget is $130M this movie cost probably close to $180M-190M without marketing spend. It had an ad during the Superbowl ($7M) so let's assume the marketing budget on this was at least $40M.
Bringing total spend here closer to $220-230M as likely a conservative estimate pre rebates.
The studio can thank Australia for saving them on this one!
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Sat May 04, 2024 1:03 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18959 Location: San Diego
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
The mid-budget film needs to make a comeback. Or at least low budget but good comedies.
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Sat May 04, 2024 1:20 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
I do wonder what online virality and influence really means in the film industry.
Gosling went viral multiple times with the Barbie Oscars performance and his SNL appearance.
Zendaya has $185M followers on IG. Though Challenges is probably making significantly more than it would have without her in a smaller film.
Barbenheimer seemed to build virality organically and driven by audiences.
Just shows how much starpower in the film industry has changed. Cruise going from TGM to an underperforming worst attended MI movie as well.
Almost all well reviewed films of April more or less flopping or disappointing. People had quality films and didn't show up.
The last 5 weeks have so many mixed signals. But seems movie concept, director, nostalgia seem much more powerful than starpower in most cases.
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Sat May 04, 2024 1:31 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21931 Location: Places
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Directors are absolutely the primary draws at the moment.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sat May 04, 2024 2:16 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Empire has Fall Guy at $10.5M Sat.
Wed $800K Thur $2.35M Fri $7.33M Sat $10.5M +43.2%
$21M 2day total
Looks like it could maybe pull off $30M but Sat jump is encouraging.
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Sun May 05, 2024 1:05 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20449 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
It would need a 15% drop lol.
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Sun May 05, 2024 10:19 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
1 Fall Guy $28.5M 2 SW Ep1 $8.1M / $482.6M 3 Challengers $7.6M -49% / $29,462,046 4 Tarot $6.5M 5 GvsK $4.5M -38% / $188M 6 CW $3.55M -48% / $62M 7 Unsung Hero $3M -61% / $13.1M 8 KFP4 $2.4M -33% / $188.3M 9 Abigail $2.3M -56% / $22.7M 10 Ghostbusters $1.8M -45% / $109.9M
Episode 1 getting #2 opening. $4.6M Sat from May 4th just shows how much $$$ is left on the table. They have really botched the franchise overall.
Solid hold for Challengers. GvsK and KFP4 inching toward $200M.
Also, how is this for a twist? What was SW Ep. 1's opening day? $28,542,349! While Fall Guy opened to $28.5M.
Also interesting, One Love and Fall Guy had the same OW's!
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Sun May 05, 2024 11:16 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18959 Location: San Diego
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Honestly don't see Fall Guy opening over 35m even prepandemic so opening seems fine to me. Weird how people on twitter are trying to say this an example of theaters dying. This should have had a smaller budget.
Sunday drop for Phantom Menace seems too high.
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Sun May 05, 2024 1:15 pm |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21658 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Once upon a time was already about stunt man and had much more caliber. I’ve been saying this for years, fall guy was like ATeam but cannonball run remake is like fast and furious with the quality of rat race, or it should have been a cliff boone sequel. The movie is awesome, but gosling isn’t a draw
_________________Chippy wrote: As always, fuck Thegun. Chippy wrote: I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!
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Sun May 05, 2024 4:38 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Charlie is saying $6.75M SUN. That would be a $1M drop in estimates for $27.5M weekend. Not great.
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Mon May 06, 2024 1:32 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38323
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
+63% on Tuesday
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Wed May 08, 2024 4:44 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11640
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Re: Fall Guy weekend thread
Solid for The Fall Guy but still looks like it will just miss $100M.
Challengers is holding solidly. Looks like it could do $50M. Solid #2 for April.
SW1 already at $9.8M in 5 days of this re-release. Vastly surpassing expectations.
GvsK looking good for $200M+. KFP will be just under $190M going into the weekend. With Garfield on deck in 16 days, it's going to be down to the wire on if it can make it to $200M but going to be awfully close.
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Thu May 09, 2024 12:25 am |
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