Soft weekend with Gran Turismo and Retribution but nonetheless

I actually think this will be an exciting weekend to track. Barbie making a run for a 5th weekend or can GT top it? National Cinema Day on Sunday. Here were the increases last year:

1 Top Gun: Maverick $2,617,003 +136.5% +25.7%
2 DC League of Super-Pets $2,543,241 +246.4% +36.1%
3 Bullet Train $2,414,145 +117.3% -0.6%
4 Spider-Man: No Way Home rerelease $2,217,961 +26.4%
5 The Invitation $2,064,081 +95.5% -17.9%
6 Beast $1,827,305 +139.8% -15.4%
7 Minions: The Rise of Gru $1,801,250 +261.2% +46.6%
8 Thor: Love and Thunder $1,292,425 +189% +9.1%

Kids movies benefitted the most here. Adult skewing movies about 1/2 the impact. Let's give it a 30% increase.

Barbie made $6.75M last Sunday so giving it a 30% increase over last Sunday it will make $8.8M on Sunday. Who knows since there's only 1 other data point to look at with 2022 dailies but could be enough to give it another $20M weekend?

Dead Reckoning should be aiming for that Bullet Train increase.

So I read that Gran Turismo already has $3M in the bank this weekend but has been doing previews for 2 weeks. It will be rolled into Friday.

This is getting a bit ridiculous that 2 weeks of release will pump up the Friday figure.

At least we know about it, so we can judge it fairly. It's not going to matter much anyway since Turismo will make peanuts.

Saw an article that GT is aiming for a $10M debut? Seems like the studio is underballing it quite a bit but Barbie could still make it to #1 with that type of debut.

Gran Turismo is a strange one. It has the name of one of the most famous video game series ever, but rather than adapt the games, it's adapting a real-life story that just happens to involve someone playing the game. So its really more like a Rush formula 1 racing film than any video game movie. They're trying to bring in both fans of the game and fans of the sport, but I think it will end up alienating both.

$7M real weekend + $3M in bogus bucks = $10M. Barbie will return to #1 unless Beetle has an amazing hold.

GT opened here two weeks ago to the equivalent of a $10-$13m North American OW. I think that's where it will end up.

I do wonder if Sunday will be even more dramatic than last year. Feels like the economy has gotten much worse since then so cheap tickets is especially compelling now.

Can anyone explain how the box office will work who's familiar?

If they offer a $4 ticket for Gran Turismo, will its box office revenue by $4 * admissions or will it be recognized as $10+ usual price and studios / theaters are subsidizing the other $6 for 1 day, etc.?

I imagine it'll work the same as discout tuesday. All movies will benefit except Oppenheimer whose imax tickets will be $20-25 cheaper than normal.

I think Oppenheimer is out of a lot of imaxs already (besides some 70mm like in LA which I caught recently!)

Thanks for the insights. If Turismo somehow still manages to miss $10M this weekend with 2 weeks of preview screenings ($3M) AND National Cinema Day benefit, will be quite pitiful!

I find it quite amazing that Barbie is still making $2.2m on day 35.

$12.993M is my estimate for Barbie
Predicting a 38.5% decrease.

Oops, it's end of summer for schools. That's right.
Amended prediction: 21% decrease - $16.6M

Theater counts:

BlueBeetle - 3,871
Barbie - 3,736 (-267)
StraysMovie - 3,232 (+9)
TMNTMovie - 3,145 (-332)
Meg2 - 2,932 (-470)
Oppenheimer - 2,872 (-449)
MissionImpossible - 1,680 (+72)
HauntedMansion - 1,630 (-550)
Little Mermaid 1600 ish