I think you just can't get past seeing it as only a sequel to Into the Spideverse. This played like a hybrid between that and No Way Home, the lowest and highest grossing Spider-Man's, leading to Across landing right in the $370-405M range that much of the franchise finds itself in.

Projected Final totals

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse- 380m
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3- 359m
The Little Mermaid- 300m
Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1 215m
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny- 175m
Transformers Rise of the Beasts- 160m
Fast X-146m
Elemental 165m
The Flash 108m
Insidious: The Red Door 85m
No Hard Feelings- 55m
The Boogeyman 44m
Asteroid City- 28m
The Blackening 18m
Joy Ride 17m
Book Club The Next Chapter-17m
Ruby Gillman Teenage Kraken- 15m
About My Father- 12m
The Machine 10m
Love Again 6m
Kandahar 5m
You Hurt My Feelings 5m

Elemental will be at around $125m after this weekend, don't think it'll suddenly sink and stop at $140m.

Forgot to change that one lol

Star of the biggest movie last year (TGM) disappoints this year with his iconic film franchise.

Star of two of the biggest flops last year (Amsterdam, Babylon) has perhaps the biggest breakout movie of the year.

Shows how one movie can make all the difference in a career defining role and how much luck is involved in creating the right ingredients for the TGM and Barbie breakouts.

Tough to say what the true power of star power is.

If Oppenheimer goes for $200m+ then...

1. Barbie
2. Spiderverse
3. Guardians
4. The Little Mermaid
5. Oppenheimer
6. Mission Impossible
7. Sound of Freedom (... or higher if it just continues)
8/9 Indiana Jones and Elemental depending on legs
10. Transformers

Wtf. Has a summer ever been so unpredictable? Usually we have one or two surprise breakouts and flops, but this year has been ridiculous.

*updated* Scoreboard so far:

1- Spiderverse $369m
2- Guardians 3 $356m
3- The Little Mermaid $294m
4- Transformers:ROTB $153m
5- Indy 5 $147m
6- Fast X $145m
7- Elemental $126m
8- The Flash $106m
9- M:I7 $83m
10-

next up: Barbenheimer

1. Barbie
2. Spiderverse
3. Guardians
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Little Mermaid
6. Sound of Freedom
7. Mission Impossible
8. Indiana Jones
9. Elemental
10.Transformers

This looks accurate. Don’t see anything else grossing 150m this summer. 100m would be great for anything else this summer.

So I'm suddenly feeling Strays? I mean not for the whole damn summer, but it could sneak in there. With Barbenheimer demolishing and even M:I franchises faltering there's going to be a lot of thinkpieces about how sequels are over an audiences want something "original". There's also been the "bring back R-Rated comedies" narrative, and I think the concept has enough novelty to make it feel like an event. In some ways, it's a composite of all the movies this year people have enjoyed or been rooting for but without feeling like a blatant "x meets y". But they really have to get the marketing rolling on this, luckily I don't think dogs are in the union.

Strays could do well but the 155m+ required to make the top 10 would be tough.

I do see 20m OW with a shot at 100m total tjough.

Some possible late summer candidates:

I'm not counting out The Meg even if unlikely. The Meg had legs after a big OW (3X+) so seemed to be well received.

TMNT looks like mindless fun and also Elemental's drops show the huge need for a family movie in the market (on top of its great wom). If Haunted Mansion flops, TMNT could have a chance at serving that audience and overperform.

Strays could pull a Sausage Party ($98M) which was 7 years ago so probably $115M+ type run now.

Equalizer made $102M in 2014 and $102M in 2018. The TV show also launched and has had 3 seasons since that time so that franchise's audience could very well be bigger. Adding the Dakota Fanning reunion is interesting but she doesn't have much box office pull. Adds a novelty factor though that could maybe sneak it to $130M+ along with 5 years of inflation and TV audience expansion. Combine that too with a holiday weekend which the first two didn't have and could clean up with lighter competition in September (and still counting as "summer" since it opened Labor Day).

I’m not even bumping mine. Guardians 3 looks like the only one I’m going to completely nail. I’m glad I saw Oppenheimer coming but $200 million might be really low balling it, and that was before I knew it was rated R and 180 minutes. Barbie, I think I had at $180 million total, and it should pass that by Monday morning at the latest?

The less said about Indy and Flash the better. Neither deserved to bomb (Indy also didn’t deserve to finish #1). Dear god.

It's frustrating that Dead Reckoning is such a flop, because it's also such a good movie. It deserves more than sub-$180m. It deserves at least Rogue Nation numbers. And the outlook for Part Two doesn't exactly look promising now. Hopefully the stunt is bigger and the stakes are well communicated in the marketing.

I think I overestimated MI, doesn’t look like it will catch IJ with how bad a drop it had this weekend.

Yeah, would have expected it to at least clear $200m with ease and target $250m. Apart from the release date issues, I think the "Part 1" and "Part 2" decision creates less of a must see among audiences. Seems to hurt most franchises. Could be a minor impact but still an impact.

I wonder if there's any uneasy people over at Universal right now regarding Wicked Part 1. I wonder if they'll delay the release, finishing filming Part 2 and then edit it down to 150-160 minutes. Or maybe it's a big enough brand that they don't have to worry about that. Either way I don't think we're going to see many Part 1's & 2's after 2024.

As for M:I specifically, I wonder if the strikes might actually be a blessing in disguise for Part 2. Pull a Bond/Ghost Protocol and move it to Winter 2024. Open it opposite Wicked over Thanksgiving or release it a week later. It might be a nice one-two punch with Sonic 3 opening against Thunderbolts (maybe).

I'd say the only two factors in its poor numbers are Barbenheimer and "Part One". I can't even entertain any train of thought that suggests franchise fatigue or bad marketing or the films quality.

*updated* Scoreboard so far:

1- Across the Spider-Verse $375m
2- Guardians 3 $358m
3- The Little Mermaid $296m
4- Barbie $163m
5- Indy 5 $159m
6- Rise of the Beasts $155m
7- Fast X $145m
8- Elemental $137m
9- M:I7 $118m
10- The Flash $107m
11- Oppenheimer $82m

BARBIE already #4

next up: Haunted Mansion, Talk to Me

lol, now that's optimism.

1 Barbie $550M
2 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $385M
3 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 $360M
4 Oppenheimer $350M
5 The Little Mermaid $300M
6 Sound of Freedom $190M -> Looks like it will be at $150M by the end of the weekend.
7 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $175M
8 Elemental $165M
9 Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $161M
10 Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One $160M (hopefully higher)

MI looks like it could be hanging on by a thread to stay in the top 10 for the summer. Hopefully it stabilizes over its 3rd weekend to push higher up the ranks. If there are any August surprises that have mega breakouts would push it out.

Currently tracking for #13 for the year behind Mario, Ant Man 3 and JW4 as well. Missing Creed ($156M) would be especially bad but it should have enough to get at least past there.

shut up

This looks pretty set now, unless crazy legs\Oscar re-releases push Oppenheimer over Guardians,
1. Barbie
2. Spiderverse
3. Guardians
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Little Mermaid
6. Sound of Freedom
7. Indiana Jones
8. Mission: Impossible
9. Transformers
10. Elemental