Register  |  Sign In
View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 9:43 am



Reply to topic  [ 20 posts ] 
 Friday Estimates 

(Under the circumstances) Dune's opening day is
superb 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
great 33%  33%  [ 2 ]
good 67%  67%  [ 4 ]
okay 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
disappointing 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
disastrous 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 6

 Friday Estimates 
Author Message
Extraordinary
User avatar

Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13041
Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
Post Friday Estimates
1 N Dune Warner Bros. $17,500,000 4,125 $4,242 $17,500,000 1
2 (2) Halloween Kills Universal $4,500,000 +159% -80% 3,727 $1,207 $63,104,845 8
3 (1) No Time to Die United Artists $3,579,515 +86% -50% 3,807 $940 $111,734,600 15
4 (3) Venom: Let There be Carnage Sony Pictures $2,450,000 +149% -47% 3,513 $697 $175,179,631 22
5 N Ron’s Gone Wrong 20th Century… $2,300,000 3,560 $646 $2,300,000 1
6 (4) The Addams Family 2 United Artists $1,132,663 +166% -40% 2,907 $390 $45,111,640 22
7 (5) The Last Duel 20th Century… $627,000 +93% -67% 3,065 $205 $7,094,968 8
8 N The French Dispatch Searchlight … $555,000 52 $10,673 $555,000 1
9 (6) Shang-Chi and the Legend … Walt Disney $547,000 +116% -40% 1,600 $342 $219,520,832 50

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

_________________
Nothing Compares 2 U


Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:26 am
Profile WWW
Extraordinary
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am
Posts: 18842
Location: San Diego
Post Re: Friday Estimates
I think it's the opening day is great tbh. I don't really see it doing muxh better pre-pandemic and with no Max. The question is if general audiences show up for the rest of the weekend. If it gets to 40m, 2.5 multiplier to 100m may be a struggle but possible if drop next weekend isn't disasterous.


Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:34 am
Profile
Superfreak
User avatar

Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 21876
Location: Places
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Legs will not be good as the movie is boring as hell. What were they thinking?

Shows the power of REAL IP and brand recognition as Dune is a series nobody has ever heard of outside of true scifi fans. WB put so many movie stars into this, gave it an epic budget, epic marketing campaign. This was as manufactured of a blockbuster as we get nowadays and it manages $12.4m on its opening Friday. Yes, in normal times and w/o HOB Max, maybe that goes up to $16-17m but still. Dune would have been a ~$60m opening during normal times which, while not awful, is not even close to enough to justify the crazy costs of production and release.

This is almost certainly more of an investment in Villanueve longterm.

_________________
Ari Emmanuel wrote:
I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.


Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:21 pm
Profile
The Kramer
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 23695
Location: Classified
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Very good all things considered. Actually, even in the Before Times this would have been seen as decent. I don't think it could have opened much higher even if it had a Nolan or Tarantino (imagine? lol) as the director. The marketing department deserves a raise for getting so many casual fans into the theater. I don't think WOM will be as excel predicts, the movie is pretty good if you can handle the slow pacing, but the late ads were misleading for sure. I hope everyone knew they weren't about to watch a Jason Mamoa romp across the desert. Next week it'll fall huge no matter what, but if it has good buzz on the internet and cleans up the tech awards at the oscars then there will be enough hype for the more action-heavy Part 2.


Sat Oct 23, 2021 12:48 pm
Profile
llegó a la casa vía marítima
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm
Posts: 6129
Location: la gran casa de la esquina
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Part 2 is basically going to be a war movie so it will be very action heavy with big twists and turns, lots of drama. All the juicy stuff is in Part 2. And the next book, since I believe Villenueve wants to do a trilogy, is much shorter and faster paced with some very cool and interesting new creatures/characters that expand the universe, that one will be easier to adapt and probably more audience friendly.

_________________
.


Sat Oct 23, 2021 3:28 pm
Profile
KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36915
Post Re: Friday Estimates
You guys are being too forgiving. For a $150m+ production budget that is a bad opening no way to turn it around. Movies with streaming have done way better than this and it's going to be a stretch to reach $40m with that Friday (it will reach that mark but not much higher). Having said that it's OS numbers are good so part 2 will happen for sure, so stop being a fan and call it out as it is. The expectations were high before it's opening and it ended up at lower end of prediction ranges. It's not disastrous opening but definitely not a great opening "all things considered".


Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:06 pm
Profile
100% That Bitch
User avatar

Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:42 pm
Posts: 16894
Location: Monterrey, Mexico
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Thats.... not good

_________________

Image
Tongue Pop!


I kneel with Magnus.


Sat Oct 23, 2021 8:07 pm
Profile
On autopilot for the summer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21628
Location: Walking around somewhere
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Jack Sparrow wrote:
You guys are being too forgiving. For a $150m+ production budget that is a bad opening no way to turn it around. Movies with streaming have done way better than this and it's going to be a stretch to reach $40m with that Friday (it will reach that mark but not much higher). Having said that it's OS numbers are good so part 2 will happen for sure, so stop being a fan and call it out as it is. The expectations were high before it's opening and it ended up at lower end of prediction ranges. It's not disastrous opening but definitely not a great opening "all things considered".


I’d be less surprised if it falls under 38 million then if it hits 40. The runtime mixed with the crazy weather hitting 50+ million people, the pre sales mulltiplier, and the way streaming in general has been effecting OW multipliers are pretty big factors not in its favor.

I agree “all things considered” is usually used by people that are only choosing to consider certain things. It’s like the curb your enthusiasm “having said that” episode.

_________________
Image

Chippy wrote:
As always, fuck Thegun.


Chippy wrote:
I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!


Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:12 pm
Profile
The Kramer
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 23695
Location: Classified
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Black Widow and Halloween Kills (probably) are the only streamers to open higher. One had a $30 fee and the other is on a platform that everybody hates. This not a flop like Suicide Squad, Malignant, In The Heights, etc..


Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:09 pm
Profile
KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36915
Post Re: Friday Estimates
No one said it's a flop but that does not mean it's a great opening that many here are claiming with "all things considered".


Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:47 pm
Profile
Quality is a great business plan
User avatar

Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6155
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Thinking 14m saturday. Its up 10% at AMC and ratio at AMC tend to go down on a saturday.

_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter

I used to be shawman.


Sat Oct 23, 2021 11:57 pm
Profile
Don't Dream It, Be It
User avatar

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 37152
Location: The Graveyard
Post Re: Friday Estimates
I think it's at least good, if not great. Certainly not superb or anything, but there is a decent handicap here.

We'll never know, but I think in normal times the ceiling would have been... $50/60 million? Would have been really surprised if it opened higher than that range. So if it can do ~$40 million while on HBO Max, that's pretty good at the very least to me.

How many here watched it on HBO Max instead of in theaters? Nothing wrong with that (I did, my local theater decided to hold "Halloween 12" over...), getting your money's worth from paying for the service after all, but it's of course going to chip away at the potential box office.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Oct 24, 2021 12:03 am
Profile WWW
KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36915
Post Re: Friday Estimates
It released here in September so I watched it in theaters first but I appreciated it more when I rewatched it at home.


Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:30 am
Profile
On autopilot for the summer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21628
Location: Walking around somewhere
Post Re: Friday Estimates
I love whoever wrote Dune’s Wikipedia reaction “Studio heads are elated at a 300 million WW, despite the the break even point being far north of there”

_________________
Image

Chippy wrote:
As always, fuck Thegun.


Chippy wrote:
I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!


Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:36 am
Profile
The Dark Knight

Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am
Posts: 757
Post Re: Friday Estimates
I wonder how much they made in streaming. Maybe once that considered $300m WW will be enough to break even.


Sun Oct 24, 2021 3:53 am
Profile
Superfreak
User avatar

Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 21876
Location: Places
Post Re: Friday Estimates
I don't think you need to pay for it on HBO Max? It is free with the service. It is just a way of adding subs.

_________________
Ari Emmanuel wrote:
I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.


Sun Oct 24, 2021 9:55 am
Profile
The Dark Knight

Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am
Posts: 757
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Excel wrote:
I don't think you need to pay for it on HBO Max? It is free with the service. It is just a way of adding subs.


Yeah, but if they look at the differential in the increase in subscribers compared to their average month/week and multiply that by the price and the number of months/weeks the average subscriber stays on the platform, they can get a vague idea of how much money Dune will have provided in terms of streaming revenue.


Sun Oct 24, 2021 11:19 am
Profile
On autopilot for the summer
User avatar

Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm
Posts: 21628
Location: Walking around somewhere
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Unlike the films of Disney, Universal etc. the problem with WBs strategy is the gave the subscription away for free. They also had to pay backend deals (225 million to legendary pictures) from an article that deadline posted a while back they need 50 million paid subscribers to make any type of profit, and I think they are only at 12.8 so far.

_________________
Image

Chippy wrote:
As always, fuck Thegun.


Chippy wrote:
I want to live vicariously through you, Thegun!


Sun Oct 24, 2021 1:39 pm
Profile
KJ's Leading Idiot

Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm
Posts: 36915
Post Re: Friday Estimates
Wow! That was a big gamble, WB is really bleeding money in that case.


Sun Oct 24, 2021 6:53 pm
Profile
Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
Posts: 20302
Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Post Re: Friday Estimates
With 165m budget plus advertising, break even is probably around 450-500m.


Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:13 am
Profile
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 20 posts ] 

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 48 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF.