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 Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (10/16-17); Charts Updated! 
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Estimates (09/11-12)
Emiya_ wrote:
Hi Corpse! A question for you: in your opinion, has Evangelion secured its #1 spot for 2021 or do you think it's possible for another movie to outgross it before the end of the year?


Almost definitely.

It's about as secured as you can get without calling it outright for the box-office (or Eiren) year which ends at the end of November, and nearly so for 2021 itself. As for 2021 (including December releases), the best bet is likely the Jujutsu Kaisen movie opening on December 24th. It's adapting the prequel manga to the series, as you probably know, so it's canon and while not acting as a sequel to season one of the anime and connecting the story to season two like Demon Slayer did, the prequel is pretty important to the overall story. Though casual fans can skip it and not be lost when season two rolls out, presumably sometime late 2022.

And don't expect this to be another Demon Slayer at the box-office. Expecting every future hit manga/anime series to do what Demon Slayer did is going to result in very unrealistic expectations and endless disappointment. It'll be big, I'm sure, but I don't think it'll have much too much casual appeal to get it up to ¥10 billion. Like mentioned above, more casual fans can skip it if they want (which fans couldn't do with Mugen Train), and Jujutsu Kaisen just isn't likely to breakout into the mainstream among every age group like Demon Slayer did. I don't see 5 year old kids and 85 year old great grandparents swarming theaters to see Jujutsu Kaisen like they did Demon Slayer.

As for Western releases... it's a pretty weak slate for the rest of 2021. The new Matrix has some potential, but the third film saw a big drop in the market (dropping 39%) and was incredibly frontloaded (barely breaking a 4x multiplier, which is abysmal in Japan) due to its mixed/negative reception. The franchise is well-known of course, so if the new film can manage to be as good/better than the original to build hype, it at least has potential for big numbers. A LOT has to go right for it though. Any mishaps will likely cause it to flounder. And in general most long-awaited Hollywood sequels (think Terminator 4, Indiana Jones 4) have underwhelmed in Japan (mostly due to kinda of...sucking. Their opens were mostly good). Jurassic World was an exception though, so there is precedent for old franchises to be revived.

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Japan Box Office
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - TV

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:53 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Estimates (09/11-12)
Viewer ratings for part 1 and 2 of Season 1 last weekend:
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/suzukiy ... 3-00258022
I don't know if the result is desirable or not, but other programs that aired on the same time slot dropped viewer ratings a little bit. Many people claimed that this was the first time they watched the series.
Undoubtedly, with only 29 million admissions of Mugen Train, there will be a large portion of the population has not watched it yet.


Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:45 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Estimates (09/11-12)
The ratings are very, very good. And note these are 3 hour specials. I didn't check beforehand, but are they the same season one specials that aired last fall?

Taking into account that they're possibly rebroadcasts and the THIRD time the episodes themselves have aired--not to mention that season one has been on home video and streaming for quite some time now (a year, year and a half?)--that getting ratings peaking over 11% is excellent. Mugen Train should certainly break 15%+ when it airs on September 25th (personally hoping for ~20%+, but that has become a more challenging rating to hit in recent years) following the season one specials to get even more people caught up again with the story.

And then season two will premiere soon after in October.

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Japan Box Office
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - TV

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


Wakanda Forever


Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:14 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Actuals (09-11/12)
Weekend Actuals (09/11-12)
01 (02) ¥155,064,200 ($1.41 million), +55%, ¥2,904,730,700 ($26.4 million), My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission (Toho) WK6
02 (01) ¥128,684,210 ($1.17 million), -41%, ¥600,700,150 ($5.5 million), Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney) WK2
03 (03) ¥x83,355,450 ($758,000), -13%, ¥5,958,247,600 ($54.3 million), Belle (Toho) WK9
04 (05) ¥x61,973,100 ($564,000), -23%, ¥3,424,904,810 ($31.3 million), F9: The Fast Saga (Toho-Towa) WK6
05 (04) ¥x57,541,720 ($524,000), -34%, ¥281,307,240 ($2.6 million), The Woman of S.R.I.: The Movie (Toei) WK2
06 (06) ¥x53,052,750 ($482,000), -16%, ¥787,279,150 ($7.2 million), Kaguya-sama: Love is War Final (Toho) WK4
07 (07) ¥x48,349,130 ($440,000), -11%, ¥4,221,248,860 ($38.6 million), Tokyo Revengers (Warner Bros.) WK10
08 (12) ¥x39,578,260 ($360,000), +05%, ¥123,196,000 ($1.1 million), The Prince of Tennis: Ryoma! Rebirth (Gaga) WK2
09 (08) ¥x38,799,980 ($353,000), -26%, ¥649,602,470 ($5.8 million), Last of the Wolves (Toei) WK4
10 (09) ¥x32,508,070 ($296,000), -38%, ¥337,296,450 ($3.1 million), The Method of Repulsing the Dove (Shochiku) WK3


I've overestimated the totals of most films in the Weekend Estimates the past two weeks, but I'll make adjustments this upcoming week to get closer to actuals again. I haven't been super off or anything, but the differences are enough to adjust a bit.

>My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission took advantage of the slow weekend with its third giveaway event, increasing a huge 55% in its sixth weekend. This is its 2nd weekend at #1, its first occurring over its fourth weekend when it expanded to 4DX/MXD locations and started its second giveaway event. The third MHA film will exceed the ¥3 billion milestone later this week, either right before next weekend or on Saturday. The giveaways will give it some life for a bit longer, but it'll also see a nice bump over the 3-day holiday next weekend a well as some of the dailies over Silver Week. Expect a finish near ¥3.5 billion (~$32/33 million), or almost double the combined totals of its two predecessors.

>Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings dipped a little hard, slightly better than the average Marvel/DC film. Its weekdays were rather weak though, so it's going to have to make up for those (which it's continuing to have this week so far) with some better weekend holds in the future. It'll likely finish a little above ¥1 billion with ¥1.2 billion ($11 million) or so. Nothing to write home about, but it will become the first Disney film since 2019's Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker to even reach the milestone, so gotta restart somewhere.

>Belle enjoyed one of its best holds to date in an impressive list of good holds. It outgrossed The Boy and the Beast to become director Mamoru Hosoda's highest grossing film on Friday ahead of the weekend and is about to exceed the ¥6 billion (~$55 million) milestone now. The biggest film of the summer has yet to leave the weekend top 3. It'll enjoy a healthy Silver Week I'm sure, and then just from playing naturally from there, should be able to finish near the ¥6.5 billion (~$60 million) mark.

>F9: The Fast Saga held very well too, and as a result (as well as nice weekdays), has guaranteed that it'll outgross Furious 7 to become the second highest grossing film in the entire Fast & Furious film franchise. It should get there over either after next Sunday or the holiday Monday. And it'll still have a bit in the tank from there, too, with the help of Silver Week, so it could end up finishing with ¥3.7 billion (~$34/35 million) or so, or just 9% shy of The Fate of the Furious, the highest grossing film in the franchise.

>The Woman of S.R.I. didn't have as strong of weekdays as I estimated yesterday, so it's not going to make a run at ¥1 billion or get within striking distance, really.

>Kagyua-sama: Love is War held great in its fourth weekend, renewing its hopes at reaching/exceeding the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone after it was looking pretty unlikely. And it probably wouldn't get there normally, but Silver Week should go a long way in helping it get there next week.

>Tokyo Revengers continues to post incredible holds late in its run. It's only ¥100 million away from outgrossing Rurouni Kenshin: The Final Chapter - The Final to become Warner Bros.'s highest grossing film of the year, which it should achieve over the Silver Week holiday period next week. Can it make a play at ¥4.5 billion (~$41 million)? Possibly. Great run ever since it opened, and has certainly assured that more films will be greenlit to continue adapting the manga/anime for the future.

>The Prince of Tennis: Ryoma! Rebirth rises into the Top 10 in its second weekend, and not just in 10th place which I mentioned it had a chance at in the Weekend Estimates, but shot up to 8th place thanks to a weekend increase. Good for it.

As I mentioned analyzing a few films above, this upcoming weekend is a 3-day holiday weekend (next Monday being a holiday), as well as the start of Silver Week. The dates don't align for a 5-day holiday period this year, but the extended weekend and additional national holiday in the middle of the week will provide a nice bump for most films.

Also, as you can see, no major films opened this weekend with studios waiting until this upcoming weekend to take advantage of the holiday week. So look for next weekend to liven things up. In particular, keep an eye on Masquerade Night to do big numbers. It's the sequel to 2019's Masquerade Hotel which grossed ¥4.64 billion ($42.2 million).

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Japan Box Office
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - TV

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


Wakanda Forever


Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:50 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films 2021
Top Grossing Films: 2021
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10.24 billion ($93.7 million) / 6.70 million [F] - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara)
¥10 billion ↨
¥7.52 billion ($69.3 million) / 5.38 million [E] - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (Toho)
¥5.96 billion ($54.3 million) / 4.29 million [59] - Belle (Toho)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.32 billion ($39.6 million) / 3.07 million [E] - Rurouni Kenshin: The Final Chapter - The Final (Warner Bros.)
¥4.22 billion ($38.6 million) / 3.17 million [66] - Tokyo Revengers (Warner Bros.)
¥4.03 billion ($38.3 million) / 3.00 million [F] - New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms (Toho)
¥3.81 billion ($36.5 million) / 2.83 million [F] - Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters, Co./Little More)
¥3.42 billion ($31.3 million) / 2.26 million [38] - F9: The Fast Saga (Toho-Towa)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.90 billion ($26.4 million) / 2.13 million [38] - My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission (Toho)
¥2.78 billion ($26.9 million) / 2.26 million [F] - Stand By Me, Doraemon 2 (Toho)
¥2.41 billion ($23.1 million) / 1.75 million [F] - Poupelle of Chimney Town (Toho)
¥2.41 billion ($22.0 million) / 1.70 million [E] - Rurouni Kenshin: The Final Chapter - The Beginning (Warner Bros.)
¥2.16 billion ($20.5 million) / 0.79 million [F] - Takizawa Kabuki Zero 2020: The Movie (Shochiku)
¥2.11 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.04 million [E] - Mobile Suit Gundam: Hathaway (Shochiku)
¥2.01 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.56 million [F] - The Promised Neverland (Toho)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.90 billion ($18.3 million) / 1.37 million [F] - Gintama: The Final (Warner Bros.)
¥1.88 billion ($17.2 million) / 1.25 million [E] - Godzilla vs. Kong (Toho)
¥1.77 billion ($17.1 million) / 1.50 million [F] - Pokemon: Coco (Toho)
¥1.61 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.36 million [45] - Crayon Shin-chan: Shrouded in Mystery! Flowers of Tenkazu Academy (Toho)
¥1.53 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.10 million [E] - Character (Toho)
¥1.38 billion ($12.5 million) / 1.01 million [E] - The Fable II (Shochiku)
¥1.23 billion ($11.5 million) / 0.83 million [E] - Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 0.88 million [E] - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Alibi (Toho) *Compilation*
¥1.17 billion ($10.8 million) / 0.91 million [E] - Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.3 million) / 0.88 million [E] - A Morning of Farewell (Toei)

¥1 billion ↑
¥974.0 million ($8.9 million) / 0.76 million [E] - Honey Lemon Soda (Shin-Toho)
¥900.0 million ($8.2 million) / 0.60 million [E] - Black Widow (Disney)
¥845.5 million ($8.0 million) / 0.64 million [E] - Liar x Liar (Asmik Ace)
¥838.7 million ($7.7 million) / 0.66 million [E] - Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho)
¥821.2 million ($7.5 million) / 0.58 million [E] - Jungle Cruise (Disney)
¥817.2 million ($7.5 million) / 0.61 million [E] - Signal: The Movie (Toho)
¥789.5 million ($7.3 million) / 0.65 million [E] - Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.)
¥787.3 million ($7.2 million) / 0.62 million [24] - Kaguya-sama: Love is War Final (Toho)
¥670.0 million ($6.1 million) / 0.51 million [E] - Hell's Garden (Warner Bros.)
¥649.6 million ($5.9 million) / 0.47 million [24] - Last of the Wolves (Toei)
¥638.1 million ($6.2 million) / 0.49 million [E] - Tengaramon (Giggly Box)
¥635.5 million ($5.8 million) / 0.49 million [E] - Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku)
¥634.9 million ($6.0 million) / 0.47 million [E] - Jukai Village (Toei)
¥614.9 million ($5.6 million) / 0.50 million [E] - Beautiful Lure - A Modern Tale of "Painted Skin" (Nikkatsu)
¥600.7 million ($5.5 million) / 0.39 million [10] - Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (Disney)
¥566.8 million ($5.2 million) / 0.38 million [31] - The Suicide Squad (Warner Bros.)
¥546.5 million ($5.2 million) / 0.44 million [E] - Under the Open Sky (Warner Bros.)
¥534.7 million ($5.1 million) / 0.37 million [E] - Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros.)

¥500 million ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

_________________
Japan Box Office
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - TV

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:51 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Mamoru Hosoda Box Office History
Mamoru Hosoda's Box-Office History:

OPENINGS:
¥679.9 million ($6.2 million) / 459,000 - Belle (2021)
¥667.0 million ($5.5 million) / 494,170 - The Boy and the Beast (2015)
¥400.1 million ($3.6 million) / 295,828 - Mirai (2018)
¥365.1 million ($4.6 million) / 276,326 - Wolf Children (2012)
¥174.7 million ($1.7 million) / 163,000 - One Piece: Baron Omatsuri and the Secret Island (2005)
¥127.5 million ($1.3 million) / 109,200 - Summer Wars (2009)
N/A - The Girl Who Leapt Through Time (2006)
N/A - Digimon the Movie (2000)


TOTALS:
¥5.96 billion ($54.3 million) / 4.29 million - Belle (2021) *9 Weeks in Release*
¥5.85 billion ($47.7 million) / 4.58 million - The Boy and the Beast (2015)
¥4.22 billion ($53.9 million) / 3.42 million - Wolf Children (2012)
¥2.88 billion ($26.1 million) / 2.28 million - Mirai (2018)
¥2.16 billion ($20.0 million) / 1.82 million - Digimon the Movie (2000)
¥1.65 billion ($19.8 million) / 1.26 million - Summer Wars (2009)
¥1.20 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.00 million - One Piece: Baron Omatsuri and the Secret Island (2005)
¥260 million ($2.2 million) / 200,000 - The Girl Who Leapt Through Time (2006) *limited release*


Belle becomes Hosoda's top grossing film. Look for it to finish around ¥6.5 billion (~$60 million) on 4.6 million+ admissions.

_________________
Japan Box Office
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - TV

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


Wakanda Forever


Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:57 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: My Hero Academia Box Office History
My Hero Academia Box-Office History:

OPENINGS:
¥454.0 million ($4.1 million) / 335,000 - My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission (2021)
¥287.1 million ($2.6 million) / 224,697 - My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (2018)
¥283.0 million ($2.6 million) / 224,000 - My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (2019)


TOTALS:
¥2.90 billion ($26.4 million) / 2.13 million - My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission (2021) *6 Weeks in Release*
¥1.79 billion ($16.3 million) / 1.35 million - My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (2019)
¥1.72 billion ($15.6 million) / 1.37 million - My Hero Academia: Two Heroes (2018)


The third MHA film is going to exceed the ¥3 billion milestone soon, and could be looking at a finish nearly double that of both of its predecessors.

_________________
Japan Box Office
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - TV

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


Wakanda Forever


Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:59 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Fast & Furious Box Office History
Fast & Furious Box-Office History

OPENINGS:
¥633.4 million ($5.6 million) / 420,058 - The Fate of the Furious (2017)
¥548.3 million ($4.6 million) / 385,428 - Furious 7 (2015)
¥535.1 million ($4.8 million) / 351,848 - F9: The Fast Saga (2021)
¥503.7 million ($4.7 million) / 331,000 - The Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (2019)
¥445.6 million ($4.5 million) / 330,385 - Fast and Furious 6 (2013)
¥217.1 million ($2.8 million) / 185,558 - Fast Five (2011)
¥214.2 million ($2.4 million) / 160,209 - Fast & Furious (2009)
¥167.7 million ($1.4 million) / 128,211 - The Fast and Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006)
¥138.9 million ($1.2 million) / 107,000 - 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003)


TOTALS:
¥4.05 billion ($36.2 million) / 2.80 million - The Fate of the Furious (2017)
¥3.54 billion ($29.2 million) / 2.53 million - Furious 7 (2015)
¥3.42 billion ($31.3 million) / 2.26 million - F9: The Fast Saga (2021) *6 Weeks in Release*
¥3.06 billion ($28.7 million) / 2.13 million - Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (2019)
¥2.02 billion ($20.6 million) / 1.60 million - Fast and Furious 6 (2013)
¥1.44 billion ($18.7 million) / 1.10 million - Fast Five (2011)
¥1.00 billion ($8.4 million) / 770,000 - The Fast and Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006)
~¥950 million ($10.4 million) / ~715,000 - Fast & Furious (2009)
~¥775 million ($6.8 million) / ~595,000 - 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003)


Note: No Opening Weekend or Total figures or estimates available for The Fast and Furious (2001). It did open at #8 over the Oct. 20-21, 2001 weekend, but fell out of the Top 10 in its second weekend. There is a note in the opening weekend report on Fast & Furious (2009) marked the fourth-consecutive increase for the series over its opening weekend, so using this knowledge, the first film opened below (and likely finished below) 2 Fast 2 Furious (2003).

F9 will surpass Furious 7 next week to become the second biggest film in the franchise, and is likely on track to finish less than 10% behind The Fate of the Furious.

_________________
Japan Box Office
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - TV

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


Wakanda Forever


Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Estimates (09/11-12)
Corpse wrote:
Emiya_ wrote:
Hi Corpse! A question for you: in your opinion, has Evangelion secured its #1 spot for 2021 or do you think it's possible for another movie to outgross it before the end of the year?


Almost definitely.

It's about as secured as you can get without calling it outright for the box-office (or Eiren) year which ends at the end of November, and nearly so for 2021 itself. As for 2021 (including December releases), the best bet is likely the Jujutsu Kaisen movie opening on December 24th. It's adapting the prequel manga to the series, as you probably know, so it's canon and while not acting as a sequel to season one of the anime and connecting the story to season two like Demon Slayer did, the prequel is pretty important to the overall story. Though casual fans can skip it and not be lost when season two rolls out, presumably sometime late 2022.

And don't expect this to be another Demon Slayer at the box-office. Expecting every future hit manga/anime series to do what Demon Slayer did is going to result in very unrealistic expectations and endless disappointment. It'll be big, I'm sure, but I don't think it'll have much too much casual appeal to get it up to ¥10 billion. Like mentioned above, more casual fans can skip it if they want (which fans couldn't do with Mugen Train), and Jujutsu Kaisen just isn't likely to breakout into the mainstream among every age group like Demon Slayer did. I don't see 5 year old kids and 85 year old great grandparents swarming theaters to see Jujutsu Kaisen like they did Demon Slayer.

As for Western releases... it's a pretty weak slate for the rest of 2021. The new Matrix has some potential, but the third film saw a big drop in the market (dropping 39%) and was incredibly frontloaded (barely breaking a 4x multiplier, which is abysmal in Japan) due to its mixed/negative reception. The franchise is well-known of course, so if the new film can manage to be as good/better than the original to build hype, it at least has potential for big numbers. A LOT has to go right for it though. Any mishaps will likely cause it to flounder. And in general most long-awaited Hollywood sequels (think Terminator 4, Indiana Jones 4) have underwhelmed in Japan (mostly due to kinda of...sucking. Their opens were mostly good). Jurassic World was an exception though, so there is precedent for old franchises to be revived.


I don’t think it will hit 10B or anything, but not even a mention of NWH in regards to 2021 imports? If Maguire is prominent seems like there is some serious potential there as well.

P.S. apologies if this has already been addressed, I haven’t been around the thread as much once DS wound down.


Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:46 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (09/11-12); Charts Update
It'll need to more than triple the last film. If it does throw in Maguire, and even Garfield, and the villains in their franchises, it should see a decent bump. But more than tripling the last film's total (or any of the totals of the last 4 films) is likely well out of reach.

Marvel made a good impact in Japan over the course of their MCU films, each film in their respective franchises gradually increasing slightly over time, on its way to culminate with Endgame And while Endgame was very successful, even it couldn't open higher than nor outgross any of the original 3 Spider-Man films (which didn't come near ¥10 billion themselves).

Spider-Man has a long local history in Japan and is far and away the biggest superhero in the market, so the first 3 films tapped into that history and behaved like major blockbusters from the start. They were also among the earliest big Hollywood superhero films, so they were able to capitalize on that novelty, in addition to being released in a time when Hollywood was dominating in the market before local films/studios took over (2008-present). Japan now releases more films than get imported by every other country combined, and Japan imports A LOT of films (in total theatrical releases, I think they're only behind India?), so there is way more variety for moviegoers to choose from today than 10, 15, 20 years ago.

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Estimates (09/11-12)
Corpse wrote:
The ratings are very, very good. And note these are 3 hour specials. I didn't check beforehand, but are they the same season one specials that aired last fall?


With new eye catchers and brand new Taisho Rumors at the end of each movie.


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (09/11-12); Charts Update
Pre-orders up for the Limited Edition home video release at RightStuf for any members or lurkers interested. (Assuming you didn't already order a copy from Japan back in June).

I believe they're the only place (partnership with Aniplex), at least in the U.S. (and they ship international), who will receive the LE. Funimation will be releasing the standard edition. Both will ship/be available for sale on December 21st.

$62.98 before taxes and any other fees after using their 10% off discount (if you're new or have a code they sometimes email out). Might be able to find it a little cheaper elsewhere, but I wouldn't expect much cheaper if so.


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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (09/11-12); Charts Update
Venom is releasing on 3rd of december. 2 months after the US release and two weeks before NWH (US) release.



close to NWH. I wonder if its intentional. Or maybe Disney/Sony will decide on a later date for NWH?


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (09/11-12); Charts Update
December can handle many bigger films playing together, so stacking the month isn't really a concern. (It can't handle as much as July or August, but it's third behind them.) This December currently looks like a regular month, but it there are still several films from both Hollywood and local distributors that need dates that are on the schedule for "December" or "Winter 2021", so it'll be filling up soon. ​

The first Venom performed well, but like most non-Spider-Man superhero films (or superhero films featuring Spider-Man), it was pretty frontloaded. It'll be shedding the majority of its screen/showings before the bigger films come later in the month and isn't likely to impact anything nor be impacted itself much, if at all.

Spider-Man currently has a "Winter" release date, meaning they were possibly considering a date outside of December. Looking at the current December schedule, it can easily be added to the December 17th weekend (or even the December 10th weekend). The new Boss Baby is the only major film scheduled there currently, but that'll definitely be changing in the coming weeks with several films still needing dates, so they should grab it now. The closer to New Year, the better.

December 24th is really the only weekend that they should actively avoid unless they can't or willing to risk an underperformance. Jujutsu Kaisen will be guaranteed the biggest screen/screens nationwide when it opens regardless, and likely all through the holidays, with Toho Cinemas likely to give it a particularly high amount of seats/showings. Some smaller films, like the new Kingsman that is opening there, are fine, but any film with higher prospects won't.

Major or planned wide releases currently scheduled for either "December" or "Winter 2021" but are still awaiting release dates include:

-Matrix Resurrections ("December 2021")
-Spider-Man: No Way Home ("Winter")
-Ghostbusters: Afterlife ("Winter")
-Infinite ("Winter")
-Shin Ultraman ("Winter")
-The latest Kamen Rider ("Winter")

Matrix and Spider-Man should take the 10th or 17th. They really only need a higher number of screens/seats for their openings, so opening a week apart is fine. They'd also have little audience overlap (Matrix skewing much older). Infinite will presumably be a small film, so any date will be fine. Similar with Kamen Rider. It's a purely fanbase film, so any date will do as it won't be impacted nor impact anything else. And it's a smaller franchise, so it won't be demanding any big screens or anything (plus it's very frontloaded).

Shin Ultraman was receiving (still is?) a good bit of hype before it got delayed, so I'd probably move it out of 2021 and give it a Spring 2022 release. Otherwise... I guess either the 3rd of 10th of December. 3rd against Venom (zero overlap, and it'd get top billing vs Venom), and the 10th only if both Matrix and Spider-Man don't go there. The 24th would be the ideal date, but it won't be scheduled with Jujutsu Kaisen in that slot.

I really don't know about Ghostbusters. If all the other films receive December dates, it should probably go to 2022. Ideally, it should be aiming for mid-late November. November is an iffy spot, especially if they're wanting families to come out (4-6 weeks out from any holidays, and then the December releases chip and eat away at the screens/showings before the holidays), but it'll be a second/third booking behind most of the films in December.

Most scheduling in Japan isn't really done with the idea of "competition" in the sense of a film affecting another by taking its audience. The vast majority of films have a pretty set audience that are already planning to see them, or will once they're playing. There is little audience overlap in the market, so it largely comes down to selecting a date that will better allow the right amount (and size) of screens and showings, holidays, etc., in order to earn what the studio(s) are targeting. This is why so many Japanese films (franchise films or films of a similar-ish genre and such) open on the mostly the same weekends during the year--they consistently earn the desired amount there regardless of other films opening with/around them.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (09/11-12); Charts Update
No plans yet for Spielberg's WEST SIDE STORY? Could be big in Japan, right?

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: WKND Actuals (09/11-12); Charts Update
mark66 wrote:
No plans yet for Spielberg's WEST SIDE STORY? Could be big in Japan, right?


It's been scheduled for Dec. 10th for several months now, maybe even most/all this year. If it wasn't on the 10th, it was definitely listed for December until it was given that date.

It should do well. Many musicals do, and being a well-known musical (though I don't know how well-known relative to others in Japan exactly) from Spielberg should help it. Although I'd argue Spielberg's name isn't what it used to be, not being nearly as relevant this day and age among younger moviegoers.

Most musicals don't open very high though (all about the legs for them), so it won't require a large number of seats/screens to do well and shouldn't impact others films since it's not really competing for them. It'll be fine if Matrix or Spider-Man, as would they, were to be scheduled on the same date. They frequently open "low" and then go on to have very leggy runs by having multiple weekends/weeks that are pretty close in gross for weeks (e.g. week 4+ can be just as big as the first week) before they gradually begin to drop later in their runs. And being in December, this one is likely to follow a similar trajectory and could post its best weeks in week 4 or 5 during New Year.

I doubt it's as popular as Les Misérables in the market, which I'd argue as the most popular stage musical in Japan. Either it or Phantom of the Opera (unsurprisingly, both based on French novels), so putting up numbers as high as either of them is a tall task. Les Mis and Phantom are the only stage musicals to achieve blockbuster status, and Les Mis is still the highest grossing musical in Japan, stage or otherwise, if you exclude the Disney live-action remakes of late.

But if it's well-received and gets strong award recognition, I could see it doing ¥3-¥4 billion (~$30/40 million) with a chance at more if it wins big at the Golden Globes or Academy Awards to propel it a little higher later in its run next year.

NOTE: Not ALL musicals are guaranteed success in Japan. Many do well, but there are exceptions. Cats did fine compared to its performances everywhere else and was a "success" (a very tiny one), but still disappointed given its status as a known stage-musical. And In the Heights outright bombed a couple months ago. Rock of Ages is also a very notable bomb in Japan, especially since it had Tom Cruise.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Widest Releases (Seating)
Widest Releases (Seating) Since 2015 (~70% of the Market):

Seating, [Theaters/Showings]
1,336,504, [267/6,170] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Oct., 2020)
1,123,168, [250/4,797] - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (Apr., 2021)
1,085,077, [267/3,786] - Frozen 2 (Nov., 2019)
919,956, [258/3,250] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
816,498, [251/3,196] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
790,550, [257/3,511] - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon A Time (Mar., 2021)
775,754, [262/2,657] - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)
766,440, [241/2,556] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
728,306, [267/2,690] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dec., 2019)
725,315, [258/2,202] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
719,848, [261/2,370] - Weathering With You (July, 2019)
719,670, [261/2,374] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
714,702, [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
701,865, [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
670,255, [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
668,663, [236/2,346] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
667,610, [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
658,842, [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
655,976, [249/1,832] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
648,401, [259/2,096] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)
648,160, [252/2,037] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
618,897, [267/2,568] - Belle (July, 2021)
610,314, [259/2,583] - Masquerade Night (Sept., 2021)
608,132, [250/1,979] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
605,267, [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
585,196, [254/1,787] - One Piece Stampede (Aug., 2019)
547,894, [252/1,655] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
533,783, [258/2,293] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
530,905, [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
530,456, [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
520,369, [237/1,744] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
517,134, [260/1,835] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
515,406, [233/1,460] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
501,322, [240/1,487] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)


Very wide release for Masquerade Night this weekend. This should be the highest grossing film of the Fall (Sept-Nov). Above is its Saturday Seating [Theater/Showings] count.

-Fourth widest release so far this year; widest 2021 release for a live-action film.
-Widest September release since at least 2015.
-Widest Live-Action domestic release since at least 2015.

Will be interesting to see how it performs this 3-day holiday weekend (and through Silver Week). Not concerned about an impressive end result, but the opening could be hindered a bit. Most theaters (basically all) are still closing by 8pm, so that could stunt the opening a little, but it has plenty of showings spread throughout the day for people to catch it. So we'll see what happens soon.

The first film, Masquerade Hotel, opened to ¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) / 484,000 admissions and earned ¥4.64 billion ($42.2 million) / 3.6 million admissions back in 2019.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Widest Releases Update
Yesterday, Sword Art Online: Progressive released a new trailer with a theme song. The movie will premiere on October 30th. Any prediction?


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Widest Releases Update
It's going to do really well. Ordinal Scale grossed ¥2.52 billion ($22.2 million) on 1.77 million admissions back in 2017, and I'm pretty confident Progressive will beat that with little trouble. (Note: This was considered a very good result for Original Scale.)

Expectations will need to be kept in check though since this is a franchise that has had a pretty well established fanbase for quite some time. So its appeal will mostly be limited to this fanbase, but studios are finding ways to turn out the core base several times during a film's run if they have a large enough core/loyal base that'll warrants the cost of giveaways and premium expansions (which SAO does).

-Giveaway events have grown in popularity over the past year or two. And when you have a diehard, core/loyal base, you can really generate a lot of extra earrings using them throughout a film's duration in theaters since they're near-guaranteed repeat viewings. I'd be surprised if one isn't announced for its opening weekend (it may already have one), followed by one or two more later in its run.

-If it's not opening in 4DX/MX4D (which will already add to its total), it'll very likely be expanded to these locations later in its run which will give it a nice boost (see MHA in recent weeks). The core/loyal fanbase will come back out and see films again when expanded to a new format, especially if they're linked with a giveaway. (Plus the higher tickets help increase earnings.)

I can see it reaching ¥3-4 billion (~$30/40 million). Also, I'm really glad it's opening on a Saturday. Friday openings are perfectly fine, but when you have a film that is very fanbase-driven, like SAO, opening on Friday can deflate the Opening Weekend (which is just Saturday and Sunday). Now we'll see it opening to its fullest potential over the weekend frame and not burn off some demand beforehand.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Widest Releases Update
If Black Window never did premier access in Japan and was a pure theatrical release how much its gross would have probably been in Japan?


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Widest Releases Update
Chaplainfan wrote:
If Black Window never did premier access in Japan and was a pure theatrical release how much its gross would have probably been in Japan?


Good question. I've been estimating that the same-day Disney+ releases are losing 40-50% of their potential earnings in Japan due to the boycotts. So my best estimate would have been a gross between ¥1.5-2.0 billion (~$15-20 million).

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Widest Releases Update
Not box-office related, but certainly impactful for Japan, the four candidates running for Prime Minister to replace Yoshihide Suga, who announced his resignation in response to his declining approval rating at the beginning of the month (last day effective Sept. 30th), have been officially declared and the campaign begins.

There are two women among the four candidates, making them the first women (and only the second and third women in history) to challenge for Prime Minster after the current Governor of Tokyo's (Yuriko Koike) failed run back in 2008.

Brief information of the four candidates below (from Japan Times:)

Image
(Candidates From Left: Kono, Kishida, Takaichi, Noda)

Taro Kono
Considered something of a maverick in Japan's largely conservative political culture, he is the minister in charge of vaccinations and a front runner in the election. Kono, 58, is a fluent English speaker who graduated from Georgetown University. He is an avid Twitter user, with many young fans, a rarity in a Japanese political world dominated by elderly men. A liberal on social issues, Kono supports same sex marriage and advancing the role of women.

Having served as foreign and defense minister, Kono says he will work with countries that share democratic values to counter China's growing assertiveness in regional seas. He stressed his achievements in speeding up Japan's delayed vaccinations, portraying himself as a leader who gets things done by tearing down bureaucratic barriers if necessary. He is backed by other popular reformists and is seen as a rival to supporters of former arch-conservative Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.


Fumio Kishida
The 64-year old former foreign minister was once seen as an indecisive moderate. Of late, however, he has shifted to a security and diplomatic hawk as he seeks support from influential conservatives like Abe. Kishida calls for a further increase of Japan's defense capability and budget and vows to stand up to China in tensions in the Taiwan Strait and Beijing's crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong.

On the economy, Kishida calls for a "new capitalism" of growth and distribution to narrow income gaps between the rich and the poor that have been worsened by the pandemic. He pledges to promote clean energy technology to turn climate change measures into growth and proposes a hefty economic recovery package.


Sanae Takaichi
An ultra-conservative former internal affairs minister, Takaichi, 60, shares Abe's revisionist views on Japan's wartime atrocities and hawkish stance on security. She regularly visits Yasukuni Shrine, which enshrines war criminals among the war dead and is viewed by China and the Koreas as proof of Japan's lack of remorse. Her security policies include developing a preemptive strike capability to counter threats from China and North Korea. Takaichi introduced a "Sanaenomics" policy of big government spending similar to Abe's signature economics policy.

A drummer in a heavy-metal band and a motorbike rider as a student, she favors traditional gender roles and a paternalistic family system and staunchly supports the imperial family's male-only succession.


Seiko Noda
A longtime hopeful to become Japan's first female leader, she is entering the race for the first time at age 61. She has served as postal, internal affairs and gender equality ministers. Noda, who has long sought to address the country's declining birth rates, had her first child at age 50 after fertility treatment. She supports same-sex marriage and acceptance of sexual diversity, as well as a legal change to allow separate surnames for married couples, and has campaigned for a quota system to increase the number of female lawmakers.

Noda, a late entry in the race, said she is running for the weak and "to achieve diversity" - a goal that other candidates did not highlight.


The election will be held on Sept. 29th, and the winner of that vote is expected to become the next Prime Minister following the parliamentary vote in early October that the ruling party (LDP) hold the majority (with their coalition partnering party) in both chambers.

The next Prime Minister will be met with several immediate challenges, including the ongoing pandemic, low public approval for the party, a rapidly declining population and its impact on the economy and workforce, and continuously rising tensions with China in regional seas, including the long disputed Senkaku Islands reaching new peaks this week. (Note: If this dispute with China boils over as both countries continue to ramp up their coastal presence around the islands, the U.S. is obligated to intervene and defend Japan via articles of their treaty.)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Widest Releases Update
I hope the new Prime Minister can put the pandemic in control and recover the 3rd largest economy in the world soon.
By the way, does anyone of them use Kimetsu motives in their campaigns? In February, many politicians used Kimetsu theme for their races and Shueisha must make an announcement.
https://soranews24.com/2021/02/06/japan ... -loophole/


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Widest Releases Update
The first trial of Ufotable and Kondo, the former president of the company, for tax evasion in 3 years:
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/292b1 ... 5797d14423
Although fans are angry, they are sympathetic toward the action of Ufotable due to the hardship of anime production. Many of them hoped the company would be able to finish the series smoothly.


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Widest Releases Update
Japan's a country where a good reputation and public image is very important to maintain. Scandals of many kinds (some that might be seen as "bad", but mostly brushed off by many) can not just damage careers, but it can outright end them. So Ufotable's former president being found guilty of years (and millions) worth of tax evasion is really damaging. Not just to the former president (his future is basically over), but the company will need to work really hard to recover the trust of fans and the general public alike.

Just read, for example, that RADWIMPS' (popular band most are probably familiar with) future is in question now that one of their three members is taking a hiatus after it was revealed he cheated on his wife. The band has to evaluate how to continue on from this, and it'll take a lot of work to overcome it. Not only is the musical career of this band member in RADWIMPS likely over, but his whole career will be tainted for a very long time and he may not find success again.

The Prime Minister just resigned earlier this month following low approval ratings. No real scandals to speak of, exactly, just a general public disapproval on how he's handled the pandemic. How often does that happen in other countries? Avoiding further damage and disapproval for the party was the primary factor (had he remained in office, he greatly risked losing reelection and his party's majority in one or both parliamentary chambers, which is only a majority right now from an alliance with a small party), but this is a non-entertainment example of how important public image and a positive reputation is to maintain.

Elected office, even that of PM, is much more like an actual job. If you receive low performance scores at your job, you'll eventually be fired or be asked to resign if you don't improve. And if you have a scandal (just say tax evasion), then you're done.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”


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