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 Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus 
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Estimates (01/16-17)
JustLurking wrote:
Corpse wrote:
It's rare for anything big to open in January or February, and that's also the case this year as well. They have many releases, just nothing of major interest. Evangelion was only here since it was delayed from last Summer.

The second Fable film (starring Junichi Okada) opens on Feb. 5th, and I believe it'll be the biggest film released until March. The first Fable opened to ¥310.0 million ($2.9 million) and grossed ¥1.77 billion ($16.2 million) in 2019.

March has several notable films as usual though, including: the latest Doraemon, Raya and the Last Dragon (Disney animated film), Monster Hunter (though Japanese audiences typically ignore Hollywood attempts at domestic material), the latest Precure, Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (based on a popular novel), Tom and Jerry (not sure of its appeal, but it has a respectable theater count), and more.

And April is looking incredible this year, but I'll talk about it at a later time.

Seems Fable got delayed.


Indeed. An unusual delay since it wasn't going to be very limited by any of the restrictions, really, except for its first weekend/week. Everything has been performing great under them, with almost everything only dropping ~10-20% (or less) for most of the week. Like Evangelion, they can reschedule this film pretty early (late-Feb/March) if they want.

It's a couple weeks out, but so far nothing is indicating that the measures are going to be extended beyond Feb. 7th.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:41 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
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Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x85,000
12/17 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/18 - Fri.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/19 - Sat.: ¥187,788,050 ($1.8 million) / 133,068
12/20 - Sun.: ¥202,627,400 ($2.0 million) / 148,780
12/21 - Mon.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/22 - Tues.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x45,000
12/23 - Wed.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/24 - Thur.: ¥x70,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x50,000
12/25 - Fri.: ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/26 - Sat.: ¥554,583,650 ($5.3 million) / 355,697
12/27 - Sun.: ¥353,034,550 ($3.4 million) / 219,946
12/28 - Mon.: ¥290,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 190,000
12/29 - Tues.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.2 million) / 205,000
12/30 - Wed.: ¥335,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 240,000
12/31 - Thur.: ¥210,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 135,000
01/01 - Fri.: ¥320,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 230,000 *Holiday, Discount Day*
01/02 - Sat.: ¥351,200,000 ($3.4 million) / 220,150 *Bank Holiday*
01/03 - Sun.: ¥326,800,000 ($3.2 million) / 204,850 *Bank Holiday*
01/04 - Mon.: ¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 180,000 *Holiday Boosted*
01/05 - Tues.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 100,000
01/06 - Wed.: ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million) / x95,000
01/07 - Thur.: ¥x80,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x50,000
01/08 - Fri.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x40,000
01/09 - Sat.: ¥125,790,000 ($1.2 million) / x75,600
01/10 - Sun.: ¥173,710,000 ($1.7 million) / 104,400
01/11 - Mon.: ¥132,804,950 ($1.3 million) / x84,300 *Holiday*
01/12 - Tues.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/13 - Wed.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x30,000
01/14 - Thur.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/15 - Fri.: ¥x50,000,000 ($0.5 million) / x30,000
01/16 - Sat.: ¥x95,550,000 ($0.9 million) / x57,810
01/17 - Sun.: ¥107,750,000 ($1.0 million) / x65,190
01/18 - Mon.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x23,000 *est.*
01/19 - Tues.: ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000 *est.*
01/20 - Wed.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x28,000 *est.*
01/21 - Thur.: ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000 *est.*
01/22 - Fri..: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000 *est.*


99-Day Cumulative Total: ¥36,354,039,800 ($347.7 million) / 26,561,637

Note: Mon.-Fri. are rounded estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the actual total.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Actuals (01/16-17); Charts Upd
Corpse wrote:

All of its volumes are very close to breaking 5 million now.

I think the manga sales have started to slow overall though, unless there are still stocking issues. I'm sure it'll maintain a presence for the better part of the year (especially if a new season or movie is announced next month), but I wouldn't expect any further weeks of it monopolizing the top X spots on the charts and such.

And speaking of this week's charts... Jujutsu Kaisen definitely showed how popular it's become this week with all of its volumes finally being restocked. It sold over 1.7 million copies in a week without any new volume release, and occupied the Top 15/16 spots. All 15 of its volumes, which includes the prequel book, will break 1 million over the next week or two (7 already have). Again, I think this is only the second time (after Demon Slayer) a series has achieved chart dominance like this before.

It seems to me that manga readers are more interested in darker material now than they were 5-10+ years ago, probably in part due to the aging population over the years. It'll be interesting to watch if WSJ continues to focus more on darker, more adult-appealing works in the future versus their more teen/young-adult audience.


Definitely still stock issues going on. It's quite unfortunate that Jujutsu, DS, and The Promised Neverland all get printed at the same place.


Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/23-24)
Weekend Forecast? (01/23-24):
01 (01) ¥274,000,000 ($2.6 million), +35%, ¥36,630,000,000 ($350.3 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK15
02 (03) ¥171,000,000 ($1.7 million), +83%, ¥1,670,000,000 ($16.1 million), Poupelle of Chimney Town (Toho) WK5
03 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥180,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Night Beyond the Tricornered Window (Shochuku) NEW
04 (02) ¥121,000,000 ($1.2 million), -20%, ¥1,070,000,000 ($10.3 million), Gintama: The Final (Warner Bros.) WK3
05 (04) ¥111,000,000 ($1.1 million), +61%, ¥3,765,000,000 ($35.4 million), New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms (Toho) WK7
06 (05) ¥x87,000,000 ($840,000), +44%, ¥1,770,000,000 ($17.1 million), The Promised Neverland (Toho) WK6
07 (06) ¥x85,000,000 ($820,000), +50%, ¥1,450,000,000 ($14.0 million), Pokemon: Coco (Toho) WK5
08 (08) ¥x44,000,000 ($425,000), +78%, ¥2,685,000,000 ($25.9 million), Stand By Me, Doraemon 2 (Toho) WK9
09 (08) ¥x36,000,000 ($345,000), +52%, ¥330,000,000 ($3.2 million), Peninsula (Gaga) WK4
10 (07) ¥x30,000,000 ($290,000), -35%, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), Natsume's Book of Friends: The Waking Rock and Strange Visitor (Aniplex) WK2


Yes, I know. What is this?! And I don't know myself, really. It's one of the most bizarre Weekend Forecast that I've put together. EVER. :funny:

This is NOT a holiday weekend, nothing of the sort, but audiences might be treating weekends as such due to not being able to see films over the weekdays unless they're, well, jobless non-students basically since theaters are closing early, basically preventing most people from going out to theaters on the weekdays. Students and office workers just can't go to the theaters outside of the weekends right now since the last showings are starting at 5/6PM. But...the past weekdays have been abnormally strong, too, so I really don't know what's driving so many people to the theaters over them, honestly.

Saturday reservations are huge. Almost everything is WAY up versus last week, easily holiday level increases if they're an indicator of what's going to happen over the weekend itself.

So this Weekend Forecast is using a lot of guess work given how abnormal (abnormally strong) the box office has been all week, and as I said, looks to be going into the weekend based on Saturday reservations. I'm basically taking ~20% off what the pre-sales are suggesting for Saturday, in the event that audiences are going to rush out over the weekends, thus treating them sort of like discount days or holidays since they don't have much opportunity to see films over the weekdays right now with many theaters closing early (but the weekdays have been great, excellent, so I don't know! lol).

NOTE: If for some reason the Saturday reservations were oddly skewing VERY high as sales come in for the day, I'll let everyone know fairly early on so no one is expecting a weekend like this.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:43 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
Well I like it!!
The weekend looks great, and even if it ends up not increasing like that, is still impresive.

And the Poupelle movie has the chance to rise to #2, developing very good legs.
Reception and WoM must be very positive, right?


Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:47 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
And to all our North American friends: Demon Slayer debuted on Netflix here today, so if you're interested, check it out. It's one of the top trends right now in the U.S.

This is perfect ahead of Mugen Train's eventual theatrical release in the market, too.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:55 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast (01/16-17)
Sorry for the late, this was a busy week for me and I didn't have the time to reply back earlier

Iscariote wrote:
Starting with the obvious conclusion : "yes, the 4 000 000 mark might have been reached if the volume behaved abnormally". The next course of action is looking for proofs because if it behaved abnormally, the market can locate the traces with it's tools/trackers.

Oricon gave us not only the weekly top 50 oricon rankings and the yearly rankings, they also gave us some extended version, for example, in the 2016 yearly rankings they gave us a top 200 volume + an additional top 50 from the next shonen jump best selling volumes ; an example for the weekly extended version would be in the Jujutsu Kaisen Oricon sales charts posted by Kenji26, the curious can check, some numbers are impossible to find in the classic weekly Oricon. Those extended versions are the perfect tools to track the anomalies and by now I guess everyone can guess the number of times the One piece volumes contenders appeared in it.

So, no anomalies detected and I estimated the 170 000 difference so important an arranged average wasn't necessary. Indeed, we can affinate the average thanks to the extended Oricon data covering jump titles + factoring the volume #01 behavorial pattern, in some cases, even volume #02 and #03 if seemed necessary. That + analysing Oricon's backlog's history (13 years) of interaction with the average is the reason why the volume #01 argument simply isn't one and is even harmful to the theory.

This isn't over, the data used generously covered till November 22nd, 2020 but Kimetsu easily hit the 4 000 000 mark eight weeks before... I insist, refining the average wasn't even necessary because there were no hints suggesting an anomaly + a significative 170 000 difference.

I took all that into consideration before posting the record list, any help is welcome but basically hearing "Oricon didn't mention it, so I don't trust you" can't be considered such. Data analysts purpose is to give annoucements to their boss, especiallly when the trackers noticed no contradictory element in the market. I thought it was clear I was just a random dude posting data analysis, nothing more, the importance people make of my modest list is up to them. I started the record list because Oricon didn't make any to copypaste^^ and with the goal to help people have a better understanding of the Demon slayer phenomenon, I only post the analysis here, not on any social media or others forums, because I admire Corpse dedications over the years. It's easy to forget the difficulty such a degree of implication represents.




I'm sorry but the examples that you gave doesn't prove that not a single One Piece volume could ever had crossed the 4 million mark

Using volume #61 as an example.. it needed to have sold 618k over the course of almost 9 years to be the first thing ever to have crossed the 4M mark, meaning an average of 69k per year. This is something that even the extended version that you mentioned couldn't be able to report.

In fact, 69k per year of average is something that not even the Shoseki ranking could be able to keep track of in a basis of week by week (69/52 = 1.3k per week of average, not enough to rank)

Of course, the volume is not going to be selling a steady amount of copies forever, it most likely sold more in 2012 than in any other of the following years, but the differance between the years would still be something that we couldn't be able to track (let's say, the volume sold 120k in 2012 and 20k in 2020, with all the other years selling between those numbers and keeping the average at 69k, we could not be able to track any of those, including the year when it sold 120k)

Again, you are using a differance of 170k and saying it was way too much of a differance for it to have happened and we would be able to see in the tracks hints of this differance, but you have to think about the time frame of when this all happened. Volume #61 would not have sold 170k more than the average in a single year, but over the course of 9 years. Which means an average of 19k copies over the usual backlog average

If volume 61 managed to sell 19k copies over the backlog average over the course of 9 years, it would be enough for this volume to have reached 4M copies. All it needed to do was to maintain an average of 69k over the course of 9 years. Which one of your examples can track such a small yearly number? Or prove that such a thing was not possible to happen?

I understand your argument about aplying the mathematical possibility in a market context, but none of your examples prove that it was impossible for volume #61 to have sold 618k copies over the course of almost 9 years

The bottom line is: there is no proof that volume #61 wasn't able to sell 618k over the course of almost 9 years, and there's no proof it managed to sell either. So we don't have a confirmation for the information that you have been reporting.


Iscariote wrote:

There has always been one other element : the circulation numbers. People love them so much especially because combined with the Oricon numbers, they give us a better picture, they complement each other. I was mentionning the Oricon sales chart posted by Kenji26 earlier, this is what manganym, the one doing them (they are used all over the internet) said about Oricon, just some stuff commonly admitted in the community.


And yes, Oricon is not 100% perfect as I said, but it's also not missing a huge amount of copies and it's what we've been using for over a decade to discuss manga sales

And the fact that it didn't track 100% of the sales doesn't prove your point that at one time, One Piece had all of its volumes over 3 million copies sold. This is still something that we do not have the data to know.

In fact, volumes like #49 who sold 1,5M copies in 2008 and then didn't manage to rank in any other list in the following years is a indicator that the manga never achieved that feat (of having all of its released volumes over 3M copies sold). Plus the fact that later on, the volumes were being released before the previous ones had crossed the 3M mark.


Last edited by Boboyo on Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:47 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
Yeah funimation has to hurry if they want the Demon Slayer movie to be at least elegible for the oscars.

The deadline for the qualifying release is February 28, 2021.
As the movie was not screened in any festival nor in any streaming service, they require at least for a 1 week release in a Los Angeles theater.


Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:52 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
So it really seems that as long as movies still has high demand, restriction only makes theirs legs stronger........ nice........


Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:45 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
ARQandARG wrote:
Yeah funimation has to hurry if they want the Demon Slayer movie to be at least elegible for the oscars.

The deadline for the qualifying release is February 28, 2021.
As the movie was not screened in any festival nor in any streaming service, they require at least for a 1 week release in a Los Angeles theater.


There is a rumours which has been floating on twitter these days that someone took a photo of AMC cinema release day for Demon Slayer movie is 26th Feb :funny: :funny:
But 26th Feb is still too late....... :blink:


Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:50 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
Alo12345 wrote:
ARQandARG wrote:
Yeah funimation has to hurry if they want the Demon Slayer movie to be at least elegible for the oscars.

The deadline for the qualifying release is February 28, 2021.
As the movie was not screened in any festival nor in any streaming service, they require at least for a 1 week release in a Los Angeles theater.


There is a rumours which has been floating on twitter these days that someone took a photo of AMC cinema release day for Demon Slayer movie is 26th Feb :funny: :funny:
But 26th Feb is still too late....... :blink:

Yeah and inmediately AMC erased the entry from their website...
We'll just have to wait to learn the truth


Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:39 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
Looks like the Saturday reservations were indeed abnormally high. Increases for most films are still looking possible, even likely, just not nearly as strong as reservations were suggesting. And while all those increases I "predicted" (even taking 20% off when I did them) would have been fun, the fact that everything is largely having flat results or increases right now is still very unusual and excellent.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:00 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
Indeed this is a very random weekend with flat/increases across the board. It's really unusual given that it's these weeks are possibly the weakest of the year.


Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:29 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
The reservation posted by mimorin every Saturday usually misses lots of shows, a better way to observe reservation is using attendance from reservation times total seats

Jack Sparrow wrote:
Indeed this is a very random weekend with flat/increases across the board. It's really unusual given that it's these weeks are possibly the weakest of the year.

Your Name also increased this week I guess it's not that uncommon


Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:31 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
That's just one movie. I'm taking about increases across the board specially with restrictions in place.


Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:36 am
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Hatchling
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Actuals (01/16-17); Charts Upd
Corpse wrote:
Kenji26 wrote:
It could be great for Demon Slayer to be nominated at march 15. A nomination can draw more worldwide attention on this 93rd ceremony and DS movie !

Question : Do we have a chance to know the budget of Demon Slayer movie someday ? For example if it becomes one of the 5 nominees...?


It was ¥700 million (~$7 million). ¥500 million on production, ¥200 million on marketing.

Budgets can be hard to come by in the market, but most anime films (based on an anime, not films from Ghibli and such) tend to fall around ¥500 million or so.

That is absolutely astonishing. This has to be one of the most profitable movie of all time worldwide, Japan is assured #1 in that regard.
Surely the most profitable movie of 2020, right? I can't find any cost figures for My People, My Homeland, which grossed $422 million though.


Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:25 am
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Speed Racer

Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:11 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
That sort of abnormal weekend makes box office interessing to follow. ^^
About DS manga sales it seems it's selling more copies at the end of this week... Every single volumes are back at the top of shoseki ranking at Jan 21st and it started with a few at 20th. Doesn't look like JjK is running out of stock so dunno why DS is doing that "well". Curious to see the next Oricon top 10 series then.
And thanks Corpse about budget informations. It makes DS success even more incredible to me...


Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:07 am
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The Incredible Hulk

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
I think 5% to 10% drop this weekend for Demon Slayer, it's really excellent and I hope it will manage to stay like that for several weeks.


Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:59 am
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Hatchling

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
Kenji26 wrote:
That sort of abnormal weekend makes box office interessing to follow. ^^
About DS manga sales it seems it's selling more copies at the end of this week... Every single volumes are back at the top of shoseki ranking at Jan 21st and it started with a few at 20th. Doesn't look like JjK is running out of stock so dunno why DS is doing that "well". Curious to see the next Oricon top 10 series then.
And thanks Corpse about budget informations. It makes DS success even more incredible to me...


Kimetsu was running out of stock

Volumes 1-11 received a reprint on 01/19
Volumes 2-22 received a reprint on 01/20

So there goes your reason.

There's also another reprint scheduled for all 23 volumes next month:
Volumes 1-12 will receive a reprint on 02/18
Volumes 13-23 will receive a reprint on 02/19

So expect an increase in sales when that happens as well


Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:54 am
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
Poor Shueisha workers! 2020 was their biggest year ever, selling somewhere around 150 million PHYSICAL books (maybe more) I would estimate.

I mean, they're making more money now than they have in... I would guess since the mid-2000s, but perhaps their 2019-2021 sales are outpacing those years (2020 obviously did), but correct me if that's wrong.

But the people responsible for making all this happen deserve a hug, even if many series are running into stocking issues every month (not just Demon Slayer or Jujutsu Kaisen, but their others series such as My Hero, Dr. Stone, and Spy x Family are also having stock issues I've read). I've been following the manga industry for about 10 years now, but I don't ever recall a time that they've struggled to keep a consistent stock in stores for multiple series', or even beyond the first week or two for a single series, really.

And I also believe manga sales are near all-time highs in the U.S. as well. So much has been out of stock (everywhere!) since mid-December, so for 5-6 weeks now. I still have orders pending fulfillment dating back to Dec. 14th. I've never see this, and I've been buying manga since 2006/2007.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:30 am
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Speed Racer

Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:11 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
Oookay. ^^ I thought I read DS had a reprint at the same time as Jjk... but yeah saw the reprint schedule at february.

I followed the manga industry when Op was performing so good or the boost of SnK but 2020 was outperforming, and 2021 seems to be very special too. So many series are doing soo good. And others are coming like Kemono Jihen...(with an anime started at Jan 10th)


Sat Jan 23, 2021 11:53 am
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Star Trek XI

Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:22 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24)
$350M tomorrow.


Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:00 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/23-24)
Corpse wrote:
[u]Yes, I know. What is this?! And I don't know myself, really. It's one of the most bizarre Weekend Forecast that I've put together. EVER. :funny:


This week, January end, does seem to have better than normal holds. Even last year January 25-31 had good holds and then next week dropped big.


Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:08 pm
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Possibly, yes.

Image

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x85,000
12/17 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/18 - Fri.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/19 - Sat.: ¥187,788,050 ($1.8 million) / 133,068
12/20 - Sun.: ¥202,627,400 ($2.0 million) / 148,780
12/21 - Mon.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/22 - Tues.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x45,000
12/23 - Wed.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/24 - Thur.: ¥x70,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x50,000
12/25 - Fri.: ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/26 - Sat.: ¥554,583,650 ($5.3 million) / 355,697
12/27 - Sun.: ¥353,034,550 ($3.4 million) / 219,946
12/28 - Mon.: ¥290,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 190,000
12/29 - Tues.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.2 million) / 205,000
12/30 - Wed.: ¥335,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 240,000
12/31 - Thur.: ¥210,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 135,000
01/01 - Fri.: ¥320,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 230,000 *Holiday, Discount Day*
01/02 - Sat.: ¥351,200,000 ($3.4 million) / 220,150 *Bank Holiday*
01/03 - Sun.: ¥326,800,000 ($3.2 million) / 204,850 *Bank Holiday*
01/04 - Mon.: ¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 180,000 *Holiday Boosted*
01/05 - Tues.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 100,000
01/06 - Wed.: ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million) / x95,000
01/07 - Thur.: ¥x80,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x50,000
01/08 - Fri.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x40,000
01/09 - Sat.: ¥125,790,000 ($1.2 million) / x75,600
01/10 - Sun.: ¥173,710,000 ($1.7 million) / 104,400
01/11 - Mon.: ¥132,804,950 ($1.3 million) / x84,300 *Holiday*
01/12 - Tues.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/13 - Wed.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x30,000
01/14 - Thur.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/15 - Fri.: ¥x50,000,000 ($0.5 million) / x30,000
01/16 - Sat.: ¥x95,550,000 ($0.9 million) / x57,810
01/17 - Sun.: ¥107,750,000 ($1.0 million) / x65,190
01/18 - Mon.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x23,000 *est.*
01/19 - Tues.: ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000 *est.*
01/20 - Wed.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x28,000 *est.*
01/21 - Thur.: ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000 *est.*
01/22 - Fri..: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000 *est.*
01/23 - Sat..: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x55,000 *est.*


100-Day Cumulative Total: ¥36,444,039,800 ($348.6 million) / 26,616,637

Note: Mon.-Fri. are rounded estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the actual total.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:09 pm
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Weekends
Biggest Fifteenth Weekends (2000-)
¥364.1 million ($3.6 million), -08%, ¥23.76 billion ($233.0 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥330.0 million ($3.0 million), +22%, ¥25.97 billion ($213.0 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥245.8 million ($2.2 million), +16%, ¥19.96 billion ($192.8 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥200.0 million ($1.9 million), -02%, ¥36.55 billion ($349.7 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *Prediction*
¥128.2 million ($1.4 million), -23%, ¥15.08 billion ($159.7 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥113.4 million ($1.0 million), -21%, ¥11.67 billion ($104.6 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥113.0 million ($1.1 million), -11%, ¥18.11 billion ($176.2 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)


Biggest Sixteenth Weekends (2000-)
¥305.0 million ($2.7 million), -08%, ¥26.56 billion ($218.8 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥286.7 million ($2.5 million), +17%, ¥20.51 billion ($197.5 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥274.4 million ($2.7 million), -25%, ¥24.25 billion ($237.9 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥x97.0 million ($0.9 million), -14%, ¥11.91 billion ($106.8 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥x95.6 million ($1.0 million), -24%, ¥15.28 billion ($163.9 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥x82.7 million ($0.8 million), -27%, ¥18.29 billion ($177.9 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)


Biggest Seventeenth Weekends (2000-)
¥195.0 million ($1.7 million), -36%, ¥27.04 billion ($222.7 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥184.0 million ($1.8 million), -33%, ¥24.63 billion ($241.5 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥174.9 million ($1.6 million), -39%, ¥20.90 billion ($200.8 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥x96.6 million ($0.9 million), -01%, ¥12.15 billion ($109.0 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥x65.6 million ($0.6 million), -21%, ¥18.44 billion ($179.3 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥x16.9 million ($0.2 million), -82%, ¥15.38 billion ($165.1 million) - Avatar (2009)


Biggest Eighteenth Weekends (2000-)
¥191.9 million ($1.7 million), +10%, ¥21.33 billion ($204.6 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥185.0 million ($1.6 million), -04%, ¥27.40 billion ($225.6 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥129.0 million ($1.2 million), -29%, ¥24.88 billion ($244.2 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥x79.2 million ($0.7 million), -08%, ¥12.36 billion ($110.8 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥x59.2 million ($0.6 million), -10%, ¥18.56 billion ($180.5 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)


Biggest Nineteenth Weekends (2000-)
¥255.0 million ($2.2 million), +31%, ¥27.84 billion ($229.1 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥230.3 million ($2.0 million), +20%, ¥21.93 billion ($209.7 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥x77.0 million ($0.7 million), -39%, ¥25.06 billion ($245.9 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥x52.8 million ($0.5 million), -33%, ¥12.50 billion ($112.1 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥x52.2 million ($0.5 million), -10%, ¥18.67 billion ($181.5 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)


Biggest Twentieth Weekends (2000-)
¥242.6 million ($2.1 million), +05%, ¥22.80 billion ($217.2 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥150.0 million ($1.3 million), -40%, ¥28.18 billion ($231.8 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥x64.7 million ($0.6 million), +24%, ¥18.86 billion ($183.4 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥x42.7 million ($0.4 million), -19%, ¥12.63 billion ($113.3 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥x38.8 million ($0.4 million), -50%, ¥25.21 billion ($247.6 million) - Frozen (2014)


Note: Spirited Away (except for its Week 16 and 20 totals) is rounded and estimated from Week 15 on.

I will expand to Biggest 21st Weekends and onward when Demon Slayer reaches that point. I can expand this out to Biggest 29th Weekends at the very least.

Your Name. began to dominate in Week 20, and continues to do so from Week 21 on, so we'll probably end up with just Your Name. and Demon Slayer at some point on these lists since everything else, including Spirited Away, either fell too far down the charts to rank or ended their runs not long after Week 20. Frozen was almost finished come Week 21, and Howl's Moving Castle shortly fell too far down the charts to rank. Bohemian Rhapsody played for about a year in theaters, but it was in very limited release from Week 25 or so on.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:15 pm
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