Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x85,000
12/17 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/18 - Fri.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/19 - Sat.: ¥187,788,050 ($1.8 million) / 133,068
12/20 - Sun.: ¥202,627,400 ($2.0 million) / 148,780
12/21 - Mon.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/22 - Tues.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x45,000
12/23 - Wed.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/24 - Thur.: ¥x70,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x50,000
12/25 - Fri.: ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/26 - Sat.: ¥554,583,650 ($5.3 million) / 355,697
12/27 - Sun.: ¥353,034,550 ($3.4 million) / 219,946
12/28 - Mon.: ¥285,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 185,000 *Holiday Period Est.*
12/29 - Tues.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 200,000 *Holiday Period Est.*
12/30 - Wed.: ¥330,000,000 ($3.2 million) / 230,000 *Holiday Period Est.*
12/31 - Thur.: ¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 130,000 *Holiday Period Est.*
01/01 - Fri.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 225,000 *Holiday Period Est.*
01/02 - Sat.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 200,000 *Holiday Period Est.*
01/03 - Sun.: ¥300,000,000 ($2.9 million) / 190,000 *Holiday Period Est.*

80-Day Cumulative Total: ¥34,543,895,850 ($330.4 million) / 25,409,907

Note: Mon.-Fri. are rounded estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the actual total.

A lot of it has to do with the declining population, which also includes children and teens. The video games transcend age-groups, so they've continued to do well (though have slipped a bit), whereas the anime (including the movies), merchandise, etc., is limited to the children.

And we're going to have to keep in mind that film franchises like Doraemon, Crayon Shin-chan, Pokemon, and just films in general that appeal towards children, are going to begin to suffer at the box office as the younger/child population decreases more and more each year. They have already begun this decline in the last couple of years, I believe.

People under 15 has fallen under 15 million now, or just 11.9% of the population. And people under 10 is below 10 million now with 9.65 million, or just 7.7% of the population.

0-4 (3.69%) : 4.65 million
4-9 (3.97%): 5.00 million
10-14 (4.25%): 5.34 million
15-19 (4.50%): 5.66 million
20-24 (5.10%): 6.41 million
25-29 (5.01%): 6.30 million
30-34 (5.22%): 6.56 million
35-39 (5.87%): 7.38 million
40-44 (6.64%): 8.35 million
45-49 (7.79%): 9.79 million
50-54 (6.90%): 8.68 million
55-59 (6.33%): 7.96 million
60-64 (5.89%): 7.41 million
65-69 (6.50%): 8.17 million
70-74 (7.42%): 9.33 million
75-79 (5.59%): 7.03 million
80-84 (4.32%): 5.43 million
85-89 (3.01%): 3.79 million
90-94 (1.48%): 1.86 million
95-99 (0.43%): 0.54 million
100+ (0.06%): 0.08 million

Regrouped:

0-9 (7.67%): 14.99 million
10-19 (8.75%): 11.00 million
20-39 (21.19%): 26.65 million
40-59 (27.67%): 34.78 million
60-79 (25.41%): 31.94 million
80+ (9.25%): 11.63 million

I expect in the next 10 years that the market could look a lot different in what they produce as entertainment (from movies, anime, manga, and everything, really). A lot less is going to be geared toward children/teens.

All-Time Most Attended Films/Population Comparison (10 Million Admissions+):

% of Pop, (Film's Admissions/Japan's Population) - Film (Year)
20,21% (25.41 million/125.71 million*) - Demon Slayer : Mugen Train (2020) *80-Day Est.*
19.72% (19.50 million/x98.88 million) - Tokyo Olympiad (1965)
18.48% (23.50 million/127.13 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
15.76% (20.03 million/127.08 million) - Frozen (2014)
15.24% (19.30 million/126.59 million) - Your Name. (2016)

Over 20% of the Japanese population has seen Demon Slayer by now, I don't know how far it can go (maybe 22%-23%), but that number is already crazy.

ymblcza, the numbers for tomorrow are only down 14% from Sunday, right ? It's very good, what can we expect ? 110k tomorrow at the usual locations ?

Corpse I have a question, how to explain that number 1 Armageddon remained 14 weeks at the head of the Japanese box office ? When the film came out was there no competition or did it just hold up really well for so long ? And even if Demon Slayer isn't #1 next week, could it go back to #1 at some point and exceed Your Name's 13 weeks or even Armageddon's 14 weeks as #1 ?

Corpse, I also wanted to ask you how do you think this week is going to act ? I know it will drop compared to the big week we just had, but how much ? 20% / 30% / 40% drop ? And will weekdays and weekends act normally with Monday / Wednesay > Friday > Tuesday / Thursday and Sunday > Saturday ? Or will there be a day that is particularly stronger or weaker than others ?

Also, I want to come back to a point, I think I was not pessimistic but rather conservative about Demon Slayer, and I know why. That's because last year when I was following the run of Frozen 2, I had a lot of hope for this movie, being the sequel to one of the biggest box office hits in Japan. Frozen 2 started off with a massive opening weekend and an equally huge 2nd weekend, so I saw it go really high and I already thought the movie would go over $200M easily. In the end after a few weeks he slowed down a lot and made "only" $120M. Maybe that's why now I'm a little more conservative about films that have huge first weekends.

Armageddon was just an uber-blockbuster in the earlier days of them. There were less films, Japanese films in particular, being released then so that helped some, but it was a major success. And it had a big song to go along with it.

If Demon Slayer holds on against Gintama next weekend to get earn 13 weeks, then it'll also get 14 weeks since I don't believe anything over Jan. 15-16 will beat it. However, it'll definitely be dethrone by Evangelion over the Jan. 23-24 weekend. I wouldn't expect it to make a return to #1 after that, but never say never.

Monday will be the biggest day this week by a big margin if it behaves like 2016, likely followed by the normal trend of Wed./Fri. > Tues./Thurs. I was just reading that the extended New Year wasn't voted on or anything, just that the Government ended up encouraging businesses to consider giving their employees an extra week off to help with travel congestion to combat the spread. So I wouldn't expect this week to be particularly strong (or no stronger than normal, anyway) as a lot of business are unlikely to follow that recommendation (because money). If anything, some businesses are probably giving their employees one maybe two days extra off, not the entire week. But we'll just have to wait and see how the week plays out, honestly.

Is 4th Jan (Monday) actually a national holiday too? what bout this day back then in 2015/2016?

It's not a holiday, but scattered businesses may still be closed since it's the day after the New Year weekend (and the Gov. has "encouraged" them), and schools are still out (they typically resume classes on the 6th), so it's still a pretty strong day.

In 2016, most films were either flat or saw smaller increases, but some also experienced declines in the 10-25% range.

Older-skewing films are more likely to benefit since their audience was working last Monday, whereas some of them may have today off. The thing is though, this year doesn't really have any older-skewing film besides New Interpretation Records of the Three Kingdoms and Tengaramon, but they aren't very good examples. And Demon Slayer, since it's appealing to everyone from 0-100, has received partial benefit as well. Also, judging by how Stand By Me, Doraemon 2 has been behaving over the past few days, it seems like it's also appealing towards an older audience a bit, perhaps from grandparents taking their grandchildren.

So it turned out that this coming week is not an extended new year week at all
in 2016, the drop was significant, staring from monday to friday, it was in the 50-60% range

Monday was either flat, saw small increases, or moderate decreases back in 2016. I said this in my last post.

And 50-60% drops are expected beginning either on Tuesday or Wednesday (depends on how businesses, and how many of them, are handling the Government's recommendation), which would still above a normal week. Films increased hundreds of percent last week.

And this is what will happen this week too but it is normal and the figures will remain higher than in normal period. The real drops will start next week.

Monday got off to a strong start, just slightly lower than Sunday and last Monday. I think the drop will increase during the day. The goal for today would be for Demon Slayer to reach 100k admissions at the usual locations, we'll see what happens during the day.

We can probably expect some special measures to be announced relatively soon for Tokyo and the neighboring prefectures, perhaps by the end of this week based on discussions. The primary target will continue to be restaurants, bars, and other late-night businesses, but it could affect others. Japan has been selective when it comes to safety measures/restrictions versus doing sweeping measures that encompass everything.

As for the impact on theaters in Tokyo and the neighboring prefectures, just have to wait and see. They're way down on the list of high-risk locations, so don't expect anything extreme, but they could be asked to resume previous measures from back in the summer and fall (such as 50% capacity and no concessions) for a few weeks/a month, but that's just speculation right now.

the movie needs to run till may if it want to break the 40b yen mark.
any holiday in feb and march period?

Thinking 420k admits and ¥670-675mn weekend. Total ¥34.6Bn.

Many western outlets will pull Demon Slayer as highest grossing Anime/Japanese film of all time. Which is well not the case.

Demon Slayer gross is ¥37.75Bn or $363mn Approx till Sunday.

Spirited Away is ¥47Bn or $396mn
Your Name is ¥40.5Bn or $380mn

As expected the weekdays will be better this week not as big as last week but I am expecting DS to pass 35B before the start of next weekend

You mean tomorrow?

I love Sailor Moon! It's tied into a lot of nostalgia for me since I was watching the show since I was 8. Recently re-watched the full original series on Hulu (had never seen the final season since they'd never broadcast it on US television due to the cross-dressing characters). Have been making my way through Sailor Moon Crystal the past few months.

Could be

I thought Your Name was the highest grossing anime movie worldwide with around $358M ?

I also thought that your name is highest grossing anime movie

News: it seems that The new emergency will start from 0:00 on 9/1/201 at Tokyo and 3 nearby areas.
How much percent of box office is made in these areas Corpse?

Holiday end on 11 th jan? as for emergency what would happen to box office during it? 50 ℅ ?

Also in news it is saying that they would consider it it would better if it at least happen after Holiday's are over and theaters still stay open even if it is at 50 ℅ capacity