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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
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February predictions
Not a bad month. Lots of sequels. Lego movie 2, What Men Want, Happy Death Day 2U, How to Train Your Dragon 3
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:31 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: February predictions
Eh. I'd be surprised if any of the non animated sequels hit 100m.
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:50 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February predictions
I don’t see anything with real breakout potential. Both animated sequels will decrease. Nothing else seems likely to do more than 75m.
Maybe What Men Want can get urban audiences excited but I don’t expect more than a mid level hit.
Alita will bomb.
Happy Death Day will do the same as the first.
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 4:51 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
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Re: February predictions
I have Lego Movie 2 flopping with under 100 mil. It's like Star Wars where they diluted the brand with the spin offs, and the novelty is dead. HTTYD3 will also be meh
What Men Want will do well, although it could have really used Kevin Hart
The Prodigy could be the sleeper to break out
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:08 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February predictions
Shack wrote: I have Lego Movie 2 flopping with under 100 mil. It would have to open to sub 30m which I don’t see happening.
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 5:10 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: February predictions
Yeah... i could see people not giving a shit about Ninjago but Lego Movie 2 should still open with 35m+, especially since there really hasn't been a family film since Ralph.
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:39 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: February predictions
Alita won't do big numbers but it will cross $100m+ domestically, though OS numbers will save it or break it.
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:45 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: February predictions
Will be surprised of Alita does 30m+ for the 4 day weekend. I wouldn't mind if it does well though.
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:48 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: February predictions
Hope Alita surprises early words is that it’s good
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:08 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23792 Location: Classified
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Re: February predictions
Cold Pursuit and Lego both have a mid 60s score on meta which is just fine. Dragon obviously already has a huge score (low 80s) since it has released overseas.
Hopefully Alita comes through as well.
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Mon Jan 28, 2019 1:38 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
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Re: February predictions
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:42 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February predictions
Uh, kJ insiders think Lego Movie grosses less than Dragon? Is that anybody besides Shack? If there’s any animated franchise that would be overpredicted by Kj it would be dragon.
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:45 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: February predictions
Given that Ninjango dropped so heavily from Batman Movie (even though both of them releasing in the same year might have bigger impact on its grosses) and upcoming sequel has much lesser buzz of the past two, so there is a high probability Lego 2 does less than $150m.
Given its reviews thus far for Dragon 3 and KFP comparisons makes it a very likely contender to pass $150m.
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:26 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote: Given that Ninjango dropped so heavily from Batman Movie (even though both of them releasing in the same year might have bigger impact on its grosses) and upcoming sequel has much lesser buzz of the past two, so there is a high probability Lego 2 does less than $150m.
Given its reviews thus far for Dragon 3 and KFP comparisons makes it a very likely contender to pass $150m. I don’t see much reason to expect LEGO to open sub 40m, most likely it opens to 50m. There hasn’t been an animated film in a while. I think comparing it to Ninjago is dumb. I think it can match Batman. It’s like saying because Solo grossed 213m that Episode 9 will only gross 350m. The spinoffs hurt the franchise overall but the main franchise won’t do that much worse than the spinoffs. The new Dragon isn’t cracking 150m. It will do KFP 3 numbers at best.
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 10:51 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23792 Location: Classified
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Re: February predictions
Both will open at about $45M and it will just depend on which one audiences like more. Critics are favoring Dragon so it has the advantage right now.
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:33 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: February predictions
I think Lego 2 looks like a more standalone entry than Dragon 3 and will play more broadly. One caveat though: the animation can be a turn-off.
For now, I think they will both do around $150m.
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 3:48 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: February predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote: Alita won't do big numbers but it will cross $100m+ domestically, though OS numbers will save it or break it. What made you so confident? I think it will do better than Ghost in the Shell (2017) but not double it. It might do slightly better than Tomb Raider (2018).
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:27 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: February predictions
Shack wrote: I have Lego Movie 2 flopping with under 100 mil. It's like Star Wars where they diluted the brand with the spin offs, and the novelty is dead. HTTYD3 will also be meh
True, the brand is diluted and the novelty is gone. But sub-$100m would be too big of a drop.
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 4:34 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: February predictions
i.hope wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: Alita won't do big numbers but it will cross $100m+ domestically, though OS numbers will save it or break it. What made you so confident? I think it will do better than Ghost in the Shell (2017) but not double it. It might do slightly better than Tomb Raider (2018). Just a gut feeling. I am still not sure
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:39 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: February predictions
zwackerm wrote: Jack Sparrow wrote: Given that Ninjango dropped so heavily from Batman Movie (even though both of them releasing in the same year might have bigger impact on its grosses) and upcoming sequel has much lesser buzz of the past two, so there is a high probability Lego 2 does less than $150m.
Given its reviews thus far for Dragon 3 and KFP comparisons makes it a very likely contender to pass $150m. I don’t see much reason to expect LEGO to open sub 40m, most likely it opens to 50m. There hasn’t been an animated film in a while. I think comparing it to Ninjago is dumb. I think it can match Batman. It’s like saying because Solo grossed 213m that Episode 9 will only gross 350m. The spinoffs hurt the franchise overall but the main franchise won’t do that much worse than the spinoffs. The new Dragon isn’t cracking 150m. It will do KFP 3 numbers at best. I wish people stop needlessly throwing words like "dumb" and stupid for winning an argument. You asked opinion and I gave one. Just because it doesn't favour your opinion it's not right to call comparisons bad or dumb. The comparison was still with Batman movie because the figure I gave was not below $59m it was below $150m which would be same drop from original to Lego 2 . KFP3 did $143m so it wasn't that far and I still believe the ratings here plus the finale factor will help Dragon 3 crack $150m even if it limps there
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Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:49 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20348 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February predictions
Lol Alita is at 33% positive early reactions my butt.
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Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:15 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: February predictions
Damn!! My points at MGKC's game.....
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Thu Jan 31, 2019 8:51 pm |
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Dil
Forum General
Joined: Wed Oct 28, 2009 9:48 pm Posts: 8942 Location: Houston, Texas
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Re: February predictions
I'm glad I went low on Alita. The trailers didn't make it look all that great to begin with and Rodriguez hasn't made a good film since Planet Terror IMO.
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Thu Jan 31, 2019 9:31 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38018
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Re: February predictions
Alita is going to be one of the biggest bombs of all time
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:04 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: February predictions
I concede. Looks like it will flop bad....ugh
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Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:21 pm |
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