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 KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - FINAL RESULTS 
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Defeats all expectations
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 9/
Magic Mike wrote:
So glad I'm one of the top predictors for Holmes & Watson. That's going to do well.


I don't know. The film looks too conventional and lazy (from the trailer).


Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:54 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 9/
Hmm. I don't like Step Brothers but think it looks pretty funny. Plus fans of that film will be interested in seeing the two pair up again.

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Sat Sep 29, 2018 3:16 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 9/
Yeah, Step Brothers was a box office success ($130m adj.), but I think that will be the ceiling for this. This is set to see some diminishing return given the late start in marketing and the tried-and-tired concept.


Sat Sep 29, 2018 4:27 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 9/
I don't know. It's releasing at Christmas which will really help it.

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Sun Sep 30, 2018 1:06 am
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Weekly Ranking for Sep 30

Alita is officially out - Hunter Killer is in!

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Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
The Nun - $124 million
The Predator - $52 million
A Simple Favor - $56 million
Fahrenheit 11/9 - $7.1 million
The House With A Clock In Its Walls - $73 million
Night School - $70 million
Smallfoot - $70 million

Current Top 5
1. The Nun - $109.0 million
2. The Predator - $47.8 million
3. The House With A Clock In Its Walls - $44.9 million
4. A Simple Favor - $43.0 million
5. Night School - $27.3 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Mary Poppins Returns and Smallfoot, the combination of Dr. Seuss' The Grinch and The House With A Clock In Its Walls, or the combination of The Nutcracker and the Four Realms and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse?
  • Dr. Seuss' The Grinch and The House With A Clock In Its Walls (currently $44.9 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Aquaman and Hunter Killer, the combination of Bumblebee and Venom, or the combination of Alita: Battle Angel, Mortal Engines, and Robin Hood?
  • VOID

#3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Halloween, The Nun, The Predator, or Suspira?
  • The Nun and The Predator (currently within $61.2 million of each other)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • Peppermint (currently $33.5 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • The Predator (-1,144 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • One (The Nun)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Peppermint (currently $33.5 million)


Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:42 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 9/
Jesus! I’m sucking it up majorly.

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Thu Oct 04, 2018 10:46 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 9/
A Simple Favor is currently the answer to #6 (although it will be short lived).

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Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:37 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 9/
Serenity is gone. Johnny English Strikes Again is in.


Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:48 pm
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Weekly Ranking for Oct 7

My apologies for the delay on this - I've been out of town for the past week.

Image

Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
The Nun - $120 million
The Predator - $52 million
A Simple Favor - $56 million
Fahrenheit 11/9 - $6.5 million
The House With A Clock In Its Walls - $73 million
Night School - $69 million
Smallfoot - $73 million
A Star is Born - $180 million
Venom - $200 million

Current Top 5
1. The Nun - $113.5 million
2. Venom - $80.3 million
3. The House With A Clock In Its Walls - $55.1 million
4. The Predator - $50.0 million
5. A Simple Favor - $49.0 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Mary Poppins Returns and Smallfoot, the combination of Dr. Seuss' The Grinch and The House With A Clock In Its Walls, or the combination of The Nutcracker and the Four Realms and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse?
  • Dr. Seuss' The Grinch and The House With A Clock In Its Walls (currently $55.1 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Aquaman and Hunter Killer, the combination of Bumblebee and Venom, or the combination of Alita: Battle Angel, Mortal Engines, and Robin Hood?
  • VOID

#3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Halloween, The Nun, The Predator, or Suspira?
  • The Nun and The Predator (currently within $63.4 million of each other)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • A Simple Favor (currently $49.0 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Life Itself (-2,113 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • One (The Nun)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Peppermint (currently $34.7 million)


Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:23 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 9/
i.hope wrote:
Serenity is gone. Johnny English Strikes Again is in.

Nice call - it's been a while since we had 2 backups placed into the game. I could even see us having more movies flee as well.


Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:29 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
Well at least I’m not DEAD last

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Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:56 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
Rev wrote:
Well at least I’m not DEAD last

Some guy that doesn't post here anymore is last, so it's all good. :thumbsup:


Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:53 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
Algren wrote:
Rev wrote:
Well at least I’m not DEAD last

Some guy that doesn't post here anymore is last, so it's all good. :thumbsup:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Sparrow#In_other_media


Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:44 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
lol shocked the Wiki admins would allow that.


Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:05 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
stuffp wrote:
Algren wrote:
Rev wrote:
Well at least I’m not DEAD last

Some guy that doesn't post here anymore is last, so it's all good. :thumbsup:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Sparrow#In_other_media

:hahaha: that's amazing.


Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:21 am
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Weekly Ranking for Oct 14

Image

Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
The Nun - $120 million
The Predator - $52 million
A Simple Favor - $56 million
Fahrenheit 11/9 - $6.5 million
The House With A Clock In Its Walls - $71 million
Night School - $74 million
Smallfoot - $73 million
A Star is Born - $180 million
Venom - $205 million
Bad Times at the El Royale - $18 million
First Man - $58 million

Current Top 5
1. Venom - $142.8 million
2. The Nun - $115.9 million
3. A Star is Born - $94.2 million
4. The House With A Clock In Its Walls - $62.3 million
5. Night School - $59.8 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Mary Poppins Returns and Smallfoot, the combination of Dr. Seuss' The Grinch and The House With A Clock In Its Walls, or the combination of The Nutcracker and the Four Realms and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse?
  • Dr. Seuss' The Grinch and The House With A Clock In Its Walls (currently $62.3 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Aquaman and Hunter Killer, the combination of Bumblebee and Venom, or the combination of Alita: Battle Angel, Mortal Engines, and Robin Hood?
  • VOID

#3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Halloween, The Nun, The Predator, or Suspira?
  • The Nun and The Predator (currently within $65.2 million of each other)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Creed 2, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, Johnny English Strikes Again, or Ralph Breaks the Internet?
  • Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (currently -79.7%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Creed 2, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, Johnny English Strikes Again, or Ralph Breaks the Internet?
  • Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (currently -79.7%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • A Star is Born (currently $94.2 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Life Itself (-2,113 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Two (The Nun, Venom)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Peppermint (currently $35.2 million)


Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:01 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
I put Creed II ($165m) in my Top 5 but I had Halloween ($204m) and Venom ($171m) higher in the predictions. Hope this non-strategy pays off. lol


Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:02 pm
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Weekly Ranking for Oct 21

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Full chart with all movies:
Spoiler: show
Image


Total Gross Projections
The Nun - $117.5 million
The Predator - $51.2 million
A Simple Favor - $53.7 million
Fahrenheit 11/9 - $6.4 million
The House With A Clock In Its Walls - $69 million
Night School - $74 million
Smallfoot - $78 million
The Hate U Give - $32 million
A Star is Born - $185 million
Venom - $205 million
Bad Times at the El Royale - $18 million
First Man - $53 million
Halloween - $200 million

Current Top 5
1. Venom - $171.1 million
2. A Star is Born - $126.4 million
3. The Nun - $116.7 million
4. Halloween - $77.5 million
5. Night School - $66.9 million

Current Answers to Box Office Questions
#1: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Mary Poppins Returns and Smallfoot, the combination of Dr. Seuss' The Grinch and The House With A Clock In Its Walls, or the combination of The Nutcracker and the Four Realms and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse?
  • Dr. Seuss' The Grinch and The House With A Clock In Its Walls (currently $64.9 million)

#2: Which will gross more in total - the combination of Aquaman and Hunter Killer, the combination of Bumblebee and Venom, or the combination of Alita: Battle Angel, Mortal Engines, and Robin Hood?
  • VOID

#3: Which 2 of the following films will gross closest to each other in total in dollars - Halloween, The Nun, The Predator, or Suspira?
  • Halloween and The Nun (currently within $39.2 million of each other)

#4: Which sequel will fall the most from its predecessor (%-wise) - Creed 2, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, Johnny English Strikes Again, or Ralph Breaks the Internet?
  • Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (currently -64.0%)

#5: Which sequel will gross the closest to its predecessor (%-wise) - Creed 2, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, Johnny English Strikes Again, or Ralph Breaks the Internet?
  • Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (currently -64.0%)

#6: What will be the highest grossing film to not hit #1 on any of its weekends?
  • A Star is Born (currently $126.4 million)

#7: What movie will lose the largest number of theaters in its 3rd weekend?
  • Life Itself (-2,113 theaters)

#8: How many films will gross over $100 million?
  • Three (The Nun, Venom, A Star is Born)

#10: What will be the highest grossing film not predicted in the total gross section (including the backup films)?
  • Peppermint (currently $35.3 million)


Sun Oct 21, 2018 10:03 pm
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
This is where the game is lacking, in my opinion. No way Vanilla deserves to get 3pts for predicting Halloween at $140m. He's going to be about $60 million away from its final gross. There should be a clause. Something like:

Quote:
For each movie, the top 25% of players who predicted most accurately will get 3 points a piece, providing they are within $30 million of its total gross.


Or maybe not $30 million. I don't know. Could be another amount or a percentage accuracy.

MGKC, are you open to something like this?


Mon Oct 22, 2018 3:16 am
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
Algren wrote:
This is where the game is lacking, in my opinion. No way Vanilla deserves to get 3pts for predicting Halloween at $140m. He's going to be about $60 million away from its final gross. There should be a clause. Something like:

Quote:
For each movie, the top 25% of players who predicted most accurately will get 3 points a piece, providing they are within $30 million of its total gross.


Or maybe not $30 million. I don't know. Could be another amount or a percentage accuracy.

MGKC, are you open to something like this?


I don't know. Let's say everyone but one predicts a gross between 5-10 for a movie and that single person says 100. Movie turns out an unexpected mega hit and grosses 200. Should that person also be punished and no points at all be given for the movie? :-k

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Mon Oct 22, 2018 4:06 am
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
I agree with Price - if your prediction for a movie is in the upper range of the average prediction, you deserve to get rewarded for that. You knew there was potential more than most everyone else.

I'm not completely opposed though to a "bonus" if you're within like 10 million of the final gross. That's actually how the game was originally scored when I started it (you had to be within 10 million or no points).


Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:48 am
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
Price wrote:
Algren wrote:
This is where the game is lacking, in my opinion. No way Vanilla deserves to get 3pts for predicting Halloween at $140m. He's going to be about $60 million away from its final gross. There should be a clause. Something like:

Quote:
For each movie, the top 25% of players who predicted most accurately will get 3 points a piece, providing they are within $30 million of its total gross.


Or maybe not $30 million. I don't know. Could be another amount or a percentage accuracy.

MGKC, are you open to something like this?


I don't know. Let's say everyone but one predicts a gross between 5-10 for a movie and that single person says 100. Movie turns out an unexpected mega hit and grosses 200. Should that person also be punished and no points at all be given for the movie? :-k


Well, in that rare scenario, yes they shouldn't get anything because what's even more wrong is that currently even the people that predicted $10m would get 3pts ... for that movie that made $200m (top 25% remember!). That's way more unfair and just insane than your freak scenario outlier of $100m not getting 3pts (though I am sure a rule could be implemented to close that loophole).


Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:38 am
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
If changes are introduced, I think the bonus idea could be the one that works best. e.g. Give an extra point if the prediction is less than $1m away from the final result, but no need to punish others.

If there is no general consensus, I also think the game works fine as it is now.

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Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:41 am
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
Yeah, sure, the game is fine. I just noticed that Vanilla is getting points for being so far away and thought I'd comment. If there is a way that MGKC can think of to make it more fair, it would improve it.


Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:44 am
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Post Re: KJ's Fall/Winter Box Office Contest 2018 - Pts Update 10
MGKC wrote:
I agree with Price - if your prediction for a movie is in the upper range of the average prediction, you deserve to get rewarded for that. You knew there was potential more than most everyone else.



I agree with this.


And whoa, I'm #1 this week :blink:.

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