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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Oscar Predictions
i.hope wrote: I think the issue with the movie is bigger than the race problem. It makes light of the central characters (Dixon and Mildred)' horrible actions in order to make their redemptive moments possible. It is very manipulative. Have you seen it? Do you feel the same about the movie? I don't doubt its chances at the Oscars. Voters love a movie with a big theme and some feel-good self-redemptive moments, middle of the road and not too edgy. I have seen it. I don't take huge issue with it as people can have a change of heart. But I do feel in the case of Dixon that it comes way too quick and easy. I was still wanting him severely punished for throwing the guy out the window.
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Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:07 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23840 Location: Classified
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Re: Oscar Predictions
So what are our predictions regarding how much they discuss last year’s best picture blunder? I’m sure Jimmy will joke about it, but I’d like to see some acknowledgement from the academy themselves. Steve Harvey should give out the first award of the night.
Also, do we expect them to buck the tradition of having previous winners announce the acting award? You can’t throw Casey Affleck out there after this season of award shows. And I think that would fit well with the theme of “Time’s Up”.
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:39 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6147 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Oscar Predictions
They surely have a PR team aware of the backlash having Casey Affleck there would cause. I predict they will circumvent having to invite him by loudly announcing that, in honour of the #movement, they will have all the acting awards presented by groups of several actresses.
Now if James Franco is nominated.....
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:57 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23840 Location: Classified
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Re: Oscar Predictions
I would just have Sandra Bullock do it since most of the other A-list actresses are in the running for nominations this year.
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:21 pm |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: Oscar Predictions
Magic Mike wrote: i.hope wrote: I think the issue with the movie is bigger than the race problem. It makes light of the central characters (Dixon and Mildred)' horrible actions in order to make their redemptive moments possible. It is very manipulative. Have you seen it? Do you feel the same about the movie? I don't doubt its chances at the Oscars. Voters love a movie with a big theme and some feel-good self-redemptive moments, middle of the road and not too edgy. I have seen it. I don't take huge issue with it as people can have a change of heart. But I do feel in the case of Dixon that it comes way too quick and easy. I was still wanting him severely punished for throwing the guy out the window. The other characters (the billboard ad agency guy and his secretary, the dentist, Mildred's co-worker) letting them (especially Dixon) get away even when they are the victims of their violence and power abuse is just too unbelievable. The story treats the absence of rule of law in the town as a matter of fact while it is a source of the growing rage between Dixon and Mildred. It weakens the message of resolution of rage by love and forgiveness that the movie tries to convey. It really is not about love or forgiveness. Most of what takes place in the movie would be prevented if the police acted more professionally and took their personal anger off the job.
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:37 pm |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm Posts: 8889 Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: Oscar Predictions
And if Meryl Streep is nominated it's also a problem. After all, SHE KNEW...
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Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:04 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Oscar Predictions
MY PREDICTIONSQuote: BEST PICTURE
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Lady Bird The Shape of Water Get Out Dunkirk The Post Call Me By Your Name The Florida Project The Big Sick Molly's Game
BEST DIRECTOR
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water Jordan Peele, Get Out Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards
BEST ACTRESS
Frances McDorman, Three Billboards Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Meryl Streep, The Post Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
BEST ACTOR
Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out James Franco, The Disaster Artist
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Allison Janney, I, Tonya Holly Hunter, The Big Sick Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Christopher Plummer, All The Money In The World Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name Molly's Game Mudbound The Disaster Artist Wonder
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Shape of Water Get Out Lady Bird The Big Sick
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk The Shape of Water Mudbound Call Me By Your Name
COSTUME DESIGN
Phantom Thread Beauty & The Beast The Greatest Showman Darkest Hour The Shape of Water
FILM EDITING
Dunkirk Baby Driver The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Blade Runner 2049
MAKEUP & HAIR
The Darkest Hour Wonder Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Shape of Water Dunkirk Blade Runner 2049 Beauty & The Beast The Darkest Hour
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk The Shape of Water Phantom Thread The Post The Darkest Hour
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
This Is Me, The Greatest Showman Remember Me, Coco Mystery of Love, Call Me By Your Name Mighty River, Mudbound Evermore, Beauty & The Beast
DOCUMENTARY
Jane Faces Places City of Ghosts Icarus Last Men In Aleppo
SOUND EDITING
Dunkirk Baby Driver The Shape of Water Blade Runner 2049 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
SOUND MIXING
Dunkirk Baby Driver The Greatest Showman Blade Runner 2049 The Shape of Water
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Shape of Water War For The Planet of the Apes Dunkirk Blade Runner 2049 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
BEST ANIMATED
Coco Loving Vincent The Breadwinner Lego Batman Ferdinand
BEST FOREIGN
A Fantastic Woman The Square In The Fade Foxtrot Loveless I don't actually think there will be 10 Best Picture nominees. Just predicted in case.
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Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:18 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38120
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Re: Oscar Predictions
SAGs not nominating Shape of Water makes no sense now that we know it's BP frontrunner and such an ensemble nomination friendly film. Their 5 nominations were Big Sick, Lady Bird, Get Out, Mudbound, Three Billboards. So it's a combination of women or anti-harrasment films + minority films. The last two years also fit the woke theme from Elba's statement win to Hidden Figures and Denzel (and Viola/Ali) winning last year. This year all the presenters will be female. It would seem to be the main force driving socially conscious wins like Moonlight may be the actors, and it could be the same this year if a film like Lady Bird pulls it out in the end and Shape of Water like three amigos films Gravity and The Revenant has PGA, DGA and Director split. Then again, it could also go the route of Innaritu's other film Birdman and just dominate. But it doesn't feel right to me as BP winner. Then again neither did Birdman until it was in the bag.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:16 am |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: Oscar Predictions
SAG has to nominate eventual PGA winner/BP front-runner or it does not make sense? You are over-thinking. SAG is not obligated to act as a predictor of other awards.
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Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:12 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38120
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Re: Oscar Predictions
i.hope wrote: SAG has to nominate eventual PGA winner/BP front-runner or it does not make sense? You are over-thinking. SAG is not obligated to act as a predictor of other awards. It's more that Shape of Water is an ensemble film so it should thrive in the Best Ensemble category at SAG. It's not a situation like La La Land where it missing SAG was explained by being a 2 star film. It would've been very plausible a few months ago in my opinion for it to win SAG and lose the other major guilds
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:46 am |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: Oscar Predictions
The four nominees (The Big Sick, Lady Bird, Get Out, Three Billboards) that I have seen are also ensemble-friendly and especially strong in the cases of Get Out and Three Billboards (dialog helps). I have not seen Mudbound.
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Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:22 pm |
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tree and a half
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:38 am Posts: 2084
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Re: Oscar Predictions
Fingers crossed for Nolan shutout!
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:47 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18899 Location: San Diego
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Re: Oscar Predictions
Hm... nothing really surprising besides Billboards missing director and Franco missing a nom. They really liked Phantom Thread surprisingly.
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 9:52 am |
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nghtvsn
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2005 7:13 pm Posts: 11015 Location: Warren Theatre Oklahoma
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Re: Oscar Predictions
I was mostly happy with these nominations. Surprised The Last Jedi got in for anything. Annoyed Armie Hammer got skipped. Annoyed Franco was skipped over bogus allegations but that's Hollywood for ya. Could Oldman be hurt by past allegations of spouse abuse? Happy Baby Driver got nods. Finally the Meryl and Denzel nods were nonsense.
_________________ 2009 World of KJ Fantasy Football World Champion Team MVP : Peyton Manning : Record 11-5 : Points 2669.00 [b]FREE KORRGAN 45TH PRESIDENT OF THE U.S.A. DONALD J. TRUMP #MAGA #KAG! 10,000 post achieved on - Posted: Wed May 16, 2018 7:49 pm
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:04 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22697 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Oscar Predictions
Stupid that Franco missed out.
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http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:37 am |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm Posts: 8889 Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: Oscar Predictions
And next time you choose someone to present the nominations, please select someone who isn't:
a) shortsighted
or
b) illiterate
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:54 am |
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i.hope
Defeats all expectations
Joined: Fri May 26, 2006 5:04 pm Posts: 6665
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Re: Oscar Predictions
Best Picture Get Out
Directing The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)
Writing (Original Screenplay) Get Out (Written by Jordan Peele)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Call Me by Your Name (Screenplay by James Ivory)
Actor in a Leading Role Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Actress in a Leading Role Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Actor in a Supporting Role Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Actress in a Supporting Role Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Cinematography Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)
Editing Lee Smith (Dunkirk)
Last edited by i.hope on Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:38 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: Oscar Predictions
Price wrote: And next time you choose someone to present the nominations, please select someone who isn't:
a) shortsighted
or
b) illiterate To be fair some names are hard to pronounce.
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Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:13 am |
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tree and a half
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:38 am Posts: 2084
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Re: Oscar Predictions
It was way more fun than listening to the usual Hollywooden actors do it.
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Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:31 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20373 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Oscar Predictions
Picture- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (runner up The Shape of Water) Director- Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water (runner up Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk) Actor- Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (runner up Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name) Actress- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (runner up Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird) Supporting Actor- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (runner up Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project) Supporting Actress- Allison Janney, I, Tonya (runner up Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird) Adapted Screenplay- Call Me By Your Name (runner up Molly's Game) Original Screenplay- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (runner up Lady Bird) Animated Film- Coco (runner up The Breadwinner) Cinematography- Dunkirk (runner up The Shape of Water) Costume Design- The Shape of Water (runner up Beauty and the Beast) Editing- Dunkirk (runner up The Shape of Water) Makeup and Hairstyling- Darkest Hour (runner up Wonder) Original Score- The Shape of Water (runner up Dunkirk) Original Song- "This Is Me" The Greatest Showman (runner up Remember Me, Coco) Production Design- The Shape of Water (runner up Beauty and the Beast) Sound Editing- Dunkirk (runner up, The Shape of Water) Sound Mixing- Dunkirk (runner up, The Shape of Water) Visual Effects- War for the Planet of the Apes (runner up Blade Runner 2049
Three Billboards- 4 The Shape of Water- 4 Dunkirk- 4 Darkest Hour- 2
The rest will win one or none.
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Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:54 am |
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Jmart
Superman: The Movie
Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 8:47 am Posts: 21157 Location: Massachusetts
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Re: Oscar Predictions
Very early predictions
Best Picture The Shape of Water
Directing Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
Writing (Original Screenplay) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Written by Martin McDonagh)
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Call Me by Your Name (Screenplay by James Ivory)
Actor in a Leading Role* Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Actress in a Leading Role* Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Actor in a Supporting Role* Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Actress in a Supporting Role* Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Cinematography Blade Runner 2049 (Roger A. Deakins)
Film Editing The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)
Sound Editing Baby Driver (Julian Slater)
Sound Mixing The Shape of Water (Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier)
Music (Original Score)* The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)
Music (Original Song) "Remember Me" from Coco
Animated Feature Film* Coco (Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson)
Foreign Language Film A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Visual Effects* Blade Runner 2049
Production Design The Shape of Water
Makeup* Darkest Hour
Costume Design Phantom Thread
The predictions with an asterisk next to them are the only predictions I have any confidence in.
The Shape of Water - 5 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 3 Blade Runner 2049 - 3 Coco - 2 Darkest Hour - 2 I, Tonya - 1 Call Me By Your Name - 1 Baby Driver - 1 Phantom Thread - 1 Lady Bird - 1 A Fantastic Woman - 1
It wouldn’t surprise me if Get Out gets Screenplay. I also think it’s down to Shape of Water and Lady Bird for Picture. If Del Toro wins Lady Bird will win BP and vice versa. I don’t think Lady Bird gets shutout considering the response and what’s gone on this year. That’s why I think Get Out has a very good chance at Screenplay even though I didn’t pick it. And even though i didn’t predict it to win anything, I sure hope Dunkirk gets something (probably cinematography and Deakins walks away empty handed again).
_________________My DVD Collection Marty McGee (1989-2005)
If I’m not here, I’m on Letterboxd.
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Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:00 pm |
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tree and a half
Cream of the Crop
Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:38 am Posts: 2084
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Re: Oscar Predictions
The person I saw The Shape of Water, though far from being a prude, couldn't get over the masturbation scene at the beginning - she said it was unnecessary to the Sally Hawkins character. I think that scene alone will be the reason that Guillermo doesn't take home the best picture oscar.
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Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:29 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: Oscar Predictions
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:55 am |
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stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am Posts: 11218 Location: Bright Falls
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Re: Oscar Predictions
tree and a half wrote: The person I saw The Shape of Water, though far from being a prude, couldn't get over the masturbation scene at the beginning - she said it was unnecessary to the Sally Hawkins character. I think that scene alone will be the reason that Guillermo doesn't take home the best picture oscar. I haven't seen the film (yet), but that coupled, with the honest trailer I just saw, makes it complete sense that a horny woman would end up banging a fish.
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:24 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67060
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Re: Oscar Predictions
It is astonishing the amount of territories where it is STILL perfectly legal to fuck animals.
Russia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Finland, Iceland, Germany, Romania, Cuba, Chile, Argentina, and the USA (New Mexico, Wyoming, DC, Hawaii, Kentucky, and West Virginia).
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Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:32 pm |
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