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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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2012 Contenders Discussion
These are my super-super early predictions. I'll see how they pan out once the race comes into sharper focus months from now.
Best Picture (I'll predict ten just because it's possible. For all I know, there could be another rule change between now and then.) Anna Karenina* The Dark Knight Rises* Django Unchained Gravity Great Expectations The Great Gatsby* Life of Pi Lincoln* The Master* Shadow Dancer
Best Director Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master Baz Luhrmann, The Great Gatsby Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby John Hawkes, The Surrogate Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Best Actress Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson Carey Mulligan, The Great Gatsby Andrea Riseborough, Shadow Dancer Meryl Streep, Great Hope Springs
Best Supporting Actor Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Jude Law, Anna Karenina Sean Penn, The Gangster Squad Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Best Supporting Actress Annette Bening, Imogene Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations Sally Field, Lincoln Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson
Best Original Screenplay Django Unchained The Master Nero Fiddled The Place Beyond the Pines Robot & Frank
Best Adapted Screenplay Anna Karenina The Dark Knight Rises The Great Gatsby Lincoln Hyde Park on Hudson
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 7:44 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38219
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Random early pick for BP winner - On the Road. While like AK, Gatsby, etc. it suffers from the rarity of a big name adaptation being BP, I do think it's built to be far more relevant to present day
Best Actress: Kirsten Dunst for Red Light Winter (playing a NY prostitute). I think Dunst has a really big 2012. Lots of movies.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:14 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
If all goes as expected, it'll be DiCaprio vs. Day-Lewis for Best Actor...
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:42 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Magnus wrote: If Lincoln is just an above average film, it'll sweep. I don't see this. Day-Lewis winning an unprecedented third, sure, definitely, but not a huge overall sweep. Needs to get GREAT reviews, a Schindler's List/Saving Private Ryan level reception, for a sweep. An Amistad/War Horse reception won't be enough.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:23 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Shack wrote: Random early pick for BP winner - On the Road. While like AK, Gatsby, etc. it suffers from the rarity of a big name adaptation being BP, I do think it's built to be far more relevant to present day
Best Actress: Kirsten Dunst for Red Light Winter (playing a NY prostitute). I think Dunst has a really big 2012. Lots of movies. I used to have lots of confidence in On the Road, but I believe this will be the third year we're discussing it as a contender. It's getting to be Margaret 2.0, lol. Obviously there's an issue, a rift, a hangup; I don't know if it'll be a debilitating one is all. Let's see if it doesn't get dumped first.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:25 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48626 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
The Surrogate. Calling it now. John Hawkes and Helen Hunt (I love that she's BACK, btw) are going to be the frontrunners for the lead acting categories. The reception out of Sundance was phenomenal.
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:29 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Libs wrote: The Surrogate. Calling it now. John Hawkes and Helen Hunt (I love that she's BACK, btw) are going to be the frontrunners for the lead acting categories. The reception out of Sundance was phenomenal. Wasn't Martha Marcy May Marlene's reception phenomenal too?
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:37 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Dr. Lecter wrote: Libs wrote: The Surrogate. Calling it now. John Hawkes and Helen Hunt (I love that she's BACK, btw) are going to be the frontrunners for the lead acting categories. The reception out of Sundance was phenomenal. Wasn't Martha Marcy May Marlene's reception phenomenal too? Like Crazy, too. Huge Sundance buzz doesn't always translate into successful Oscar buzz. I am definitely predicting Hawkes, though.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:39 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Winter's Bone and An Education did well in terms of nominations.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:44 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm Posts: 48626 Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Winter's Bone, An Education and Martha Marcy May Marlene were also *not* crowd pleasers the way The Surrogate is supposed to be (and it did win the audience award). Fox Searchlight picked it up (for $6 million, I might add), and if there's anyone that's good at working the crowd pleasing indie fave angle, it's them.
It's ridiculously early to be discussing it, though.
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Sun Jan 29, 2012 11:51 pm |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
An Education wasn't a crowd pleaser?
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:10 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Dr. Lecter wrote: If all goes as expected, it'll be DiCaprio vs. Day-Lewis for Best Actor... I hope all goes as expected.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:13 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I could see Bill Murray being a strong force in the best actor race. He's playing a president himself: FDR.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:15 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
By the looks of it, 2012 looks MILES better than 2011.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:16 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Life of Pi should be interesting. I'm not sure how easily the novel can be adapted for the screen, but I have faith in Ang Lee.
Ralph Fiennes as Magwitch and Helena Bonham Carter as Miss Havisham in the new Great Expectations = awesome casting.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:19 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38219
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I didnt know Life of Pi and Great Expectations were coming out as well, holy adaptations batman
The Oscars owe Ang Lee BP so much that even a Life of Pi adaptation has to be right at the top of the list for contenders
Good call on Murray. And Linney and the film should be in the mix too.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:22 am |
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David
Pure Phase
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2005 7:33 am Posts: 34865 Location: Maryland
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
The Gangster Squad should be a HUGE contender with its cast--Ryan Gosling, Sean Penn, Josh Brolin, Nick Nolte, Emma Stone--and period setting, but I'm not entirely "feeling it" yet. For one, the director, Ruben Fleischer (30 Minutes or Less), hardly inspires prestige-pic confidence. And neither The Untouchables nor Public Enemies were Oscar powerhouses. The latter didn't receive a single nomination in fact (this surprised me, I thought it had received a few tech nods).
Penn as gangster Mickey Cohen in a supporting role could result in a nomination, though, definitely.
_________________1. The Lost City of Z - 2. A Cure for Wellness - 3. Phantom Thread - 4. T2 Trainspotting - 5. Detroit - 6. Good Time - 7. The Beguiled - 8. The Florida Project - 9. Logan and 10. Molly's Game
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 12:33 am |
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Price
Gamaur's sex slave
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2005 7:15 pm Posts: 8889 Location: Los Pollos Hermanos
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
For BEST ACTOR that unknown young guy from TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE.
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 8:15 am |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Magnus wrote: David wrote: Winter's Bone and An Education did well in terms of nominations. yeah but didnt win. LMS was the last time we had a Sundance flick actually win multiple Oscars. Precious.
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:43 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18929 Location: San Diego
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
I feel like Great Gatsby won't be a big contender.
And maybe Leo will get nominated (and possibly win supporting?) for Djano Unchained? But that's just a wild guess.
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Mon Jan 30, 2012 3:53 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22727 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Like 2002, Leo has two major films coming out in December. I do hope Django is the film and performance with the higher praise.
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Tue Jan 31, 2012 7:26 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Can an actor be nominated in more than one category, or twice in a single category?
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:19 pm |
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MovieDude
Where will you be?
Joined: Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:50 am Posts: 11675
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Corpse wrote: Can an actor be nominated in more than one category, or twice in a single category? Theoretically, why not? Soderbergh was nominated twice for Best Director in 2000... Mostly, I think the studios try and avoid that by sometimes subordinating what are essentially 'lead' roles as supporting. No studio would want their contender to be cannibalized by their own selves. You could argue that might have been what happened to Michael Fassbender this year.
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Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:25 pm |
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trixster
loyalfromlondon
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2004 6:31 pm Posts: 19697 Location: ville-marie
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
An actor can't be nominated in the same category twice. It's one of those stupid Oscar rules... Quote: 5. In the event that two achievements by an actor or actress receive sufficient votes to be nominated in the same category, only one shall be nominated using the preferential tabulation process and such other allied procedures as may be necessary to achieve that result. http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawa ... ule06.htmlBut actors are nominated in more than one category all the time. Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age + I'm Not There, Jamie Foxx in Ray + Collateral, Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven + The Hours...and that's just from this century.
_________________Magic Mike wrote: zwackerm wrote: If John Wick 2 even makes 30 million I will eat 1,000 shoes. Same. Algren wrote: I don't think. I predict.
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Tue Jan 31, 2012 3:38 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm Posts: 92093 Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion
Yeahm that's one of the most moronic Oscar rules out there which basically forces category fraud (like in Foxx' case, or attempted in Kate Winslet's case).
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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Wed Feb 01, 2012 5:30 am |
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