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 Netflix will be dead by 2030 
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Post Netflix will be dead by 2030
If KJ somehow survives that long I will bump this thread when it happens. It may happen before then anyways.

12 billion+ in debt
Rising competition at a cheaper price
Losing Friends/The Office
Damaging their originals brand with mediocre quality and cancellations after 2-3 years

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Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:28 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
I think they keep putting out quality films, at least, the star powered ones.

They'll get to a point where they release the films in theaters for 2 weeks or something, get those profits, and then stream.

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Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:40 pm
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Quality is a great business plan
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
They will be fine. They are building a huge library and that is beyond just US centric. Friends/office could have short term impact but they will other content.

Also I expect Universal/AT&T to struggle with competing with other big guys. I expect a consolidation to happen.

Netflix still has the best platform when it comes to streaming.

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Tue Aug 20, 2019 5:43 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
If anything someone bigger buys Netflix and keeps the brand going but as a stand-alone company their days are numbered if they think they can burn cash forever.

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Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:20 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Don’t they make like a billion a month? How the hell are they 12 billion in debt

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Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:11 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
The debt news is always a shock to me. I figured the biggest name in streaming would have the spend/earn numbers figured out by now, but doesn't sound like it.

If the situation is that dire, it probably would spell disaster, but no other streaming service is a viable alternative. Everyone else is lesser. Hulu, Amazon Prime, CBS All Access, whatever else is on the go.

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Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:23 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Not a chance. If anything, it'll be an even bigger, more multifaceted version of what is now.

The debt doesn't matter: certain business models require big debt/investment to begin (Tesla is a far more extreme example, even though one of their biggest issues is actually keeping up with a surging customer demand; high-demand companies require big debt to get off the ground at first) --- more important is the net income after expenses, which factors in debt/risk management and acquisitional growth potential, etc.

Where Netflix has been clever, is in anticipating Disney and Time Warner's content upheaval to their own platforms, by producing enough high quality stuff to challenge for marketshare while also creating and embedding a stronger viewer habit than free-to-air and cable were never able to. Current estimates put the number of services the average household is willing to pay for at 3, or roughly $45 a month --- and you can guarantee that "Netflix and chill" is more culturally intertwined with the streaming market than any other catchphrase will ever be; and the position it'll have within that $45 household allocation only grows with each new TV series it releases.

The other thing about the company is Reed Hastings: he's a math guy, is just way smarter than any other media CEO, if not most of them combined. The fact the company has jumped to a market cap that's not only bigger than Time Warner, but big enough to compare with the entirety of AT&T - in less than 10 years - hasn't been a fluke:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap

Netflix achieved that while somehow managing to change from physical DVD distribution (facilitated by the most advanced supply-and-demand algorithm in history), to online streaming (which has a whole different set of genius-requiring challenges to execute), which I'd say speaks for itself.


Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:21 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Gamaur wrote:
Not a chance. If anything, it'll be an even bigger, more multifaceted version of what is now.

The debt doesn't matter: certain business models require big debt/investment to begin (Tesla is a far more extreme example, even though one of their biggest issues is actually keeping up with a surging customer demand; high-demand companies require big debt to get off the ground at first) --- more important is the net income after expenses, which factors in debt/risk management and acquisitional growth potential, etc.

Where Netflix has been clever, is in anticipating Disney and Time Warner's content upheaval to their own platforms, by producing enough high quality stuff to challenge for marketshare while also creating and embedding a stronger viewer habit than free-to-air and cable were never able to. Current estimates put the number of services the average household is willing to pay for at 3, or roughly $45 a month --- and you can guarantee that "Netflix and chill" is more culturally intertwined with the streaming market than any other catchphrase will ever be; and the position it'll have within that $45 household allocation only grows with each new TV series it releases.

The other thing about the company is Reed Hastings: he's a math guy, is just way smarter than any other media CEO, if not most of them combined. The fact the company has jumped to a market cap that's not only bigger than Time Warner, but big enough to compare with the entirety of AT&T - in less than 10 years - hasn't been a fluke:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap

Netflix achieved that while somehow managing to change from physical DVD distribution (facilitated by the most advanced supply-and-demand algorithm in history), to online streaming (which has a whole different set of genius-requiring challenges to execute), which I'd say speaks for itself.


Very well put. They are well ahead of other platform and they tech and recommendation engine will also be ahead. Only true competitor who is a media and tech company is Amazon and they have foot in too many pie. Among true streaming firms Netflix is the only tech play. Just look at Hulu and Netflix experiences.

Plus most streaming firms have narrow(US centric). Netflix is making content for global audience. That should help them long term as well.

Plus as you said its not one winner take it all. I could see 3-4 succeed. But there will be some consolidation as I cant see every studio succeed as media firms.

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Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:07 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Gamaur wrote:
Not a chance. If anything, it'll be an even bigger, more multifaceted version of what is now.

The debt doesn't matter: certain business models require big debt/investment to begin (Tesla is a far more extreme example, even though one of their biggest issues is actually keeping up with a surging customer demand; high-demand companies require big debt to get off the ground at first) --- more important is the net income after expenses, which factors in debt/risk management and acquisitional growth potential, etc.

Where Netflix has been clever, is in anticipating Disney and Time Warner's content upheaval to their own platforms, by producing enough high quality stuff to challenge for marketshare while also creating and embedding a stronger viewer habit than free-to-air and cable were never able to. Current estimates put the number of services the average household is willing to pay for at 3, or roughly $45 a month --- and you can guarantee that "Netflix and chill" is more culturally intertwined with the streaming market than any other catchphrase will ever be; and the position it'll have within that $45 household allocation only grows with each new TV series it releases.

The other thing about the company is Reed Hastings: he's a math guy, is just way smarter than any other media CEO, if not most of them combined. The fact the company has jumped to a market cap that's not only bigger than Time Warner, but big enough to compare with the entirety of AT&T - in less than 10 years - hasn't been a fluke:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... market-cap

Netflix achieved that while somehow managing to change from physical DVD distribution (facilitated by the most advanced supply-and-demand algorithm in history), to online streaming (which has a whole different set of genius-requiring challenges to execute), which I'd say speaks for itself.


Netflix's plan was definitely to go into debt for decades and then flip the switch, but it seems like that plan relies on the subscribers keep going up. If the subscribers start dropping because of losing some of their biggest shows and higher competition, then the plan no longer makes sense. And if they aren't sweating the dollars, how come they are raising their price and totally changing their cancellation policy (from never cancelling everything to cancelling almost everything)

Their algorithms are definitely their strength, but it was a bigger advantage 10-15 years ago when their competition was Blockbuster who were tech n00bs. Disney have had a lot more time to catch up to them in that area, plus with the way social media spreads buzz for shows these days is it as important as in the early Netflix days to recommend things to people?

When Netflix becomes closer to a pure original content service, the competition is going to be severe compared to how they've had it. If they have worse shows, waste more money on them, and charge people more for it, it won't go well. For when was the last time Netflix intentionally created a blockbuster show? Their biggest hit (Stranger Things) was an accident they did not market much before it came out. When they throw a bunch of money at something like Lost In Space or The Get Up It often fails. Series of Unfortunate Events seems like it did ok I guess.

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Sat Aug 24, 2019 2:20 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_o ... by_Netflix

Na bra. It's already the greediest new-content monster, well before it's had to step things up for the reasons you've said.


Sun Aug 25, 2019 10:49 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
I'm scrolling through the Netflix app as nd it's nothing but Netflix damn series. Lord, I just want to see something for 2 hours and that's it but I'm getting nothing but promotions for tv series or series trash. Hate their damn app

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Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:40 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
People complain ALL THE TIME how they don't promote their shows, etc etc etc.

Now y'all are complaining they're making it too easy to find their own shows.

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Wed Aug 28, 2019 12:58 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Apple+ will be 4.99 on November 1st and launch with these titles

Quote:
See
The epic drama starring Jason Momoa and Alfre Woodard is set 600 years in the future after a virus has decimated humankind and rendered the remaining population blind. When all humanity has lost the sense of sight, humans must adapt and find new ways to survive.

The Morning Show
A cutthroat drama starring and executive produced by Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston, and starring Steve Carell, explores the world of morning news and the ego, ambition and the misguided search for power behind the people who help America wake up in the morning.

Dickinson
A darkly comedic coming-of-age story, explores the constraints of society, gender and family through the lens of rebellious young poet, Emily Dickinson.

For All Mankind
A new series from Ronald D. Moore, imagines what would have happened if the global space race never ended and the space program remained the cultural centerpiece of America’s hopes and dreams.

Helpsters
A new children’s series from the makers of “Sesame Street,” stars Cody and a team of vibrant monsters who love to help solve problems. It all starts with a plan.

Snoopy in Space
A new original from Peanuts Worldwide and DHX Media, takes viewers on a journey with Snoopy as he follows his dreams to become an astronaut. Together, Snoopy, Charlie Brown and the Peanuts crew take command of the International Space Station and explore the moon and beyond.

Ghostwriter
A reinvention of the beloved original series, follows four kids who are brought together by a mysterious ghost in a neighborhood bookstore, and must team up to release fictional characters from works of literature.

The Elephant Queen
An acclaimed documentary film and cinematic love letter to a species on the verge of extinction, follows a majestic matriarch elephant and her herd on an epic journey of life, loss and homecoming.

Oprah Winfrey
Winfrey joins the world’s most compelling authors in conversation as she builds a vibrant, global book club community and other projects to connect with people around the world and share meaningful ways to create positive change.


Looks good

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Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:56 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Who besides folks getting new Apple phones is going to really sign up just to explore unbelievably limited content even for 5$? Maybe if they include a year with other apple purchases like the apple tv, a macbook, itouch, ipad stuff like that.

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Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:50 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
That’s exactly what they’re doing nghtvsn. Seems like this is more of an extra for the new iphone than a real video service.


Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:09 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
nghtvsn wrote:
Who besides folks getting new Apple phones is going to really sign up just to explore unbelievably limited content even for 5$? Maybe if they include a year with other apple purchases like the apple tv, a macbook, itouch, ipad stuff like that.


The key is that it's only $5, you only need 1 show you like for it to be worth it

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Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:51 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Eh, I wouldn't pay $60/year for one show. I'm already paying like $72/year for DC Universe, and I get a few great shows and tons of comics and old movies and animated shows.

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shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element

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Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:58 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Actually they should just combine it with Apple Music. Boom you have a large user base integrated into your phony streaming content.

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Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:00 am
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030


RIP Netflix

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Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:10 pm
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Post Re: Netflix will be dead by 2030
Looks great but I still think original content from Netflix is way better than this. Plus Netflix's global content is picking up which is a big deal.


Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:03 pm
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