If the GOP can't win the Senate with this extraordinarily favorable map, they need a hard reset on party identity. The 2024 map basically hands them the Senate. And it begins by not nominating so many far-right/MAGA types who can't win support outside that group.

The House should be "easy" for the DEMs. So many retirements in the GOP, a record amount I think, and the current GOP led House is the most ineffective in a hundred years. So focusing on the retiring seats where they have a chance and making sure to lock up seats they shouldn't have lost last time (namely in NY) should get them there. This is assuming they also pick up more in the swing districts that the GOP currently hold from voters there being tired of nothing being done and their representatives trying to campaign on stuff (the infrastructure bill) they voted NO on.

On paper the seats in Montana and Ohio should be easy as long as the incumbents aren’t hugely popular. Tester barely won in 2018 in a blue wave year.

Arizona would be a guaranteed pickup, since Gallego and Sinema will split the liberal vote, if they weren’t likely to nominate Kari Lake, who is so unpopular in Arizona she lost to Katie Hobbs, the most boring governor candidate ever. Now it’s a tossup, at best.

Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan are also possible pickups. Especially Michigan as Stabenow is retiring. It’s possible Trump at the top of the ticket will pull them over the finish line.

Problem for the GoP will be the Trump factor pushing a lot of voters away from the election

I'd think Trump's presence will boost Republican turnout and help them down ballot, even if we see a lot of ticket splitting at the top like we have when he's been on the ballot in the past.

I think high turnout for Trump and low enthusiasm for Democrats is how he wins. Of course, a successful push to galvanize liberals to come out and vote could still happen thanks to continued ire over Roe v Wade. It is why Trump has stopped talking about it.

The Mar a Lago thing was a reach from people desperate searching for lowest hanging fruit excuse to take down Trump. Can see how it gets treated (D)ifferently when the other side does it.

I think it is a dumb comparison as Trump was asked multiple times to give his documents back and then when confronted, went out of his way to conceal them, so it is not just he forgot he had them, he was actively trying to withhold them where as Biden seems to have just forgot he still retained them which is if you read the report is why he is not being charged.

Of course to the average observer or those who want to say Trump did nothing wrong, this is a convenient set of circumstances

Not to dismiss anything by saying this, but does it even matter what comes out about most candidates or elected officials these days? It takes a HELL of a lot to cross that line, and even then it takes even more work to begin holding them accountable in any sort of way.

Almost everyone's approval ratings are so low they can't really go much lower.

Biden’s main issue is not Trump, but his own base. The situation in Israel is going to cost him the election I feel at this point. His best bet is Trump getting convicted between now and the election (which seems 50/50 at this point) leading to Trump getting a low turnout. The wild card here is Nikki Haley. My gut is telling me she is not going to side with Trump when the time comes. Dark horse she runs as an independent (with a Romney VP ticket?), but this is unlikely, but if it happens, you heard it here first.

Trump is polling pretty much at his ceiling in my guess. Biden has question mark about his age that will linger but his numbers should grow. A repeat of last years state of the union energy would do wonders for him. The narrative around the success of his administration will improve as the year progresses.

That’s what’s so wild to me. Outside of the Afghan withdrawal, Biden’s had the most impressive presidency since Reagan.

Right. Biden will get A LOT more exposure as the year progresses. If he can reasonably quell age concerns, as he did in 2020, he will be fine. He has a lot to brag about.

I mean... stuff like this should* make it very clear in November. I don't know if the last 8 years of his nonsense (to put it as nice as possible) has made the media and just Americans (or the world) numb to his behavior or what, but this is insane stuff that needs addressed. There is somehow still enough people in the media and in the GOP who don't take him seriously and dismiss his words like they don't matter; they'll sometimes scrutinize it for a day, if that, and move on.

*But it won't because of how divided the country has become. It really doesn't matter what Trump says or does. Republicans are going to vote for him regardless of literally anything. And while the Democrats have also become tribal, it's nothing like this. Things Biden (or any elected Democrat, think Senator Mendez for example) says or does actually gives pause and debate on a matter unlike it does with Republicans with Trump and other far-right MAGA politicians.

Seeing that speech from Trump, I'm glad my country has its own nuclear weapons. We're a few thousand votes in three or four states from Russia being able to invade Poland.

Don't worry. If this gets decent attention in the media, you'll see a few Republicans on the Sunday shows saying Trump just likes to talk, he's not serious, people are twisting his words.

It's all totally normal. But WOW! Did you see Biden post a photo of himself with that dangerous criminal son of his on X recently? The nerve of this President to do such a thing. *Cue media talking about Hunter or something for the next 72 hours ("Hunter Biden: Bigger Threat to America and World Peace Than Hitler?" special next week) Don't forget to have a few segments on George Soros paying the NFL to help rig tonight's football game so those lefties (or Swifties, idk, they are the same people) on the Kansas City Chiefs win and endorse Biden in their celebration though. We need those ratings from 2016-2020 back!

Pretty accurate Corpse and unfortunately in today’s world you can surround yourself with whatever narrative fits your worldview even if you don’t mean to. It takes a considerable effort to surround yourself with other points of view. I have a conservative family and don’t shy away from having conservative friends. I also refuse to unfriend someone even if they have toxic political views because I am fully committed to having other points of views on things. It is why I can fully see how batshit crazy the right has gotten since I use to support the Republican Party.

That quote is kind of like when he said he would tell Putin he'll bomb Moscow if he invades Ukraine, and that even if Putin didn't believe him the 5% of doubt would make him hestitate. It's not great but I think the point was more bragging that he'll talk tough with other countries.

Not bad

The counsels report is helping Biden more than it is hurting him with average moderate. The nation that Biden is old and out of it that he forgot the date that child passed away is so absurd it is laughable. It ready as an obvious political attack that actually undermines GOP efforts that Biden its some secret mastermind behind everything.

Guy needs a strong repeat of last years epic State of the Union and a lot of people will stfu.

I agree that the Biden age stuff isn't going to land when Trump is also up there, and because unlike a more boring/normal election like Clinton/Dole, there's too many other emotionally sensitive factors, the people who actually buy the Trump derangement hysteria pushed by the media the last 9 years aren't going to change their mind cause Biden is old. Stewart and even to some extent Maher aren't going after both sides for real, they're still going to try to make the left look better and hence accuse the Democrat side of being old and lame and accuse the Republican side of attempting a coup, Rogan is what really being a moderate looks like.

GOP doing very poorly in Santos' district. Their majority is getting slimer and slimer.

It wasn’t even that particularly close either. Polls seem to be having a very big GOP swing in the last two years while the actual elections have had a strong Dem swing them as opposed to the latter 2010s.

The 3rd is a D+ district that only went R+ in 2022 due to Zeldin bringing Santos up the ticket. This is unfortunately expected.

Which is why it was stupid for Republicans to help the Democrats oust him.

Fani Willis feels like a better fit to become a trashy TV judge after this than prosecute the biggest American court case ever.

I was never a big fan of hers, but this whole thing feels dumb and obviously aimed at delaying a guilty verdict