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Florida Primary
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Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Florida Primary

All things Florida here.

If McCain wins, Republican nom could be all but over. Anyone know what time the polls close?

Author:  Corpse [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

7PM and 8PM.

Author:  Mr. Reynolds [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

but there is already a thread.

Author:  xiayun [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

7pm in most places, 8pm for the rest.

Early exit polls from CNN:

Quote:
Forty percent of poll respondents who called themselves conservative or very conservative said they voted for Romney compared to 27 percent for McCain, 15 percent for Huckabee and 13 percent for Giuliani.

Among those who said they are politically moderate, 41 percent opted for McCain, followed by 22 percent for Giuliani, 19 percent for Romney and 9 percent for Huckabee.

Among Democrats, both self-styled liberals and moderates were leaning toward New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. She garnered 55 percent of moderates who were polled, compared to 28 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and 15 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Among liberals, Clinton got 53 percent of the vote, with Obama getting 36 percent and Edwards garnering 9 percent of those votes.


So Clinton should win with over 50% of the vote, while Obama getting 30-33%. On the Republican side, it's definitely a dead heat. McCain has a bigger lead on Romney among moderates than Romney has on him among conservatives, but there are more conservatives voting, so it's evened out.

Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

No Country for Sam wrote:
but there is already a thread.


Now that there is a political forum ... everything can have it's own thread, discussion can now become more specific.

Author:  Corpse [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Romney has a slight advantage because this is the first REP primary where ONLY REPS can vote. No DEMS or Independents.

Author:  xiayun [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

According to the same exit polls, 60% of the Republican voters described themselves as conservatives, so if we go by all the percentages, it will be 60% * 40% + 40% * 19% = 31.6% for Romney, and 60% * 27% + 40% * 41% = 32.6% for McCain.

Author:  Corpse [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Quote:
MIAMI — What a strange situation we’re facing here in Florida today.

No Democratic delegates (there would be 210) will come out of this primary — at least not as long as the Democratic National Committee adheres to its penalty rules because the state moved its contest up so early. And only half (57) of the state’s Republican delegates will be counted, conforming to the national G.O.P.’s decision for the same reason.
And while the Republican candidates have criss-crossed this vast, populous state intensively for the last 10 days since the party’s South Carolina primary, no Democratic candidate has been able to campaign here for months because they signed a pledge to only campaign in the four early states. (Aside from fund-raising and an Obama cable TV ad in the last week.)

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is due to descend on Davie, Fla., tonight. She has been leading in the state’s polls here. And having lost the South Carolina primary, coming out ahead here may perhaps give her a boost, however ephemeral given the nature of the absentee campaigns on the Democratic side.

The Clinton campaign, in a conference call billed as “Why Florida Matters” just a short while ago, wants it known that it now believes Florida’s delegates should be seated at the convention. (She released a statement to this effect just last week.) Asked why the campaign hadn’t urged for such a move before, Howard Wolfson, one of the senator’s top advisers, said, “I think there was a widespread expectation when the D.N.C. made its decision that voters in Florida would not participate.”
The campaign says it doesn’t envision any situation in which the delegates from Florida and Michigan aren’t seated at the party’s national convention next summer. Aides said they didn’t talk about this earlier, when Michigan voters went to the polls because only Senator Clinton of the major Democratic candidates was on the ballot there.
There are some interesting permutations here that could alter the landscape later on for Florida voters. The state’s leaders could decide to hold an alternative process — like caucuses we hear — sometime later this winter/spring. (Imagine yet another vote in Florida!) If it were held within the accepted time frame of all the other state’s primaries, those delegates would be recognized.
We’ve asked for comment from the D.N.C.’s chairman Howard Dean on the import of today’s voter turnout here and what that says about all the rule-making. Meanwhile, Karen Finney, the spokeswoman for the Democratic National Committee, pointed today to the party’s rules for the convention as she reiterated that there are no delegates at stake here today.
A credentials committee will meet this summer, and it could decide to take up the matter of seating the Florida and Michigan delegations. So, it’s still possible — possible — that these big delegations could be a force at the convention, and in fact, some Florida voters believe that will ultimately be the case.
As for complaints that these votes being tallied today should count toward delegates, she said the process for states “has been very transparent and very clear. Florida was notified in August that their plan was in noncompliance.” (The state’s Democratic leaders lost a lawsuit over this point, too.)
After all, most other states followed the rules and didn’t move up their primaries before the Feb. 5 marker next Tuesday.
Asked whether the Clinton campaign made a mistake in signing the early state pledge, Mr. Wolfson said, “I think all the candidates would agree that the situation that we find ourselves in vis-à-vis Michigan and Florida is unfortunate …” And one, he added, that anyone would want to avoid in the future, given how engaged voters seem to be here and elsewhere.
Yeah, imagine how intense the campaign would’ve been here — with its usually rich number of delegates — had the candidates all descended on the state after Mr. Obama’s big win in South Carolina. The Clinton aides dismissed the idea that her popularity here rested on name recognition, given that there hasn’t been an all-out campaign. People are paying attention to the national media coverage and to the debates, they added.
One journalist asked whether the 400,000-plus early/absentee ballots on the Democratic side merely reflected a shift in the way people are voting, as opposed to a strong sign of record turnout today. While it’s possible that that explains it partially, the aides believe it’s a harbinger — as has been turnout in other states on the Democratic side — of deep engagement in the primary process.
Now several times, Mr. Wolfson and Mark Penn, the campaign strategist, likened what’s happening in Florida to what will happen on Feb. 5 — to a national primary. And several times, they hit the Obama campaign for “violating” that early-state pledge by going up last week with a biographical ad on national cable, that of course appears here in Florida, too.
So far, the Obama campaign has so far not pushed for Florida’s votes to count toward delegate selection.
Of course, as another journalist suggested, it’s certainly not going to hurt that Mrs. Clinton will get national media coverage tonight for her rally — when she’s thanking those Sunshine State residents who voted for her even if their votes don’t count at this point — because so much television attention will be focused on the Republican primary here. And that’s certainly helpful going into next week’s Super Tuesday.
Whether anyone can really count the Democratic vote here as a win. Or not.


http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008 ... gate-mess/

This could cause some problems for the DEMS this NOV. Just like Michigan, Florida DEMS are pissed they are being excluded pretty much from all of this. And FL being a huge swing state, and is usually crucial. So it's going to put pressure on the DNC since it's being brought out in the open now.

Author:  xiayun [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

And look like Giuliani will indeed finish third with 16%, and Huckabee 13%.

Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

The dems were stupid. This wouldn't be a big deal if the norm happened, and the race was about over by now. But everything is messed up, and every single delegate matters, and now two huge states have no say what so ever.

Way to alienate your base! Hillary is very smart for reaching out to the state.

Should have done what the Republicans did, unseat some of the delegates, but let the others count. Win, win for everyone.

Author:  xiayun [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Counting so far (under U.S. President link for each party).

Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Romney - 36,974
McCain - 31,606

Any idea what % of precincts this is?

Author:  xiayun [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Eagle wrote:
Romney - 36,974
McCain - 31,606

Any idea what % of precincts this is?


In the "Reporting Status" section, it shows which county has completed what part of the count. Look like no precinct has completed so far, just absentee and early voting ballots, but a lot of counties have started updating and sending in the results.

Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

So it looks like 0% precincts, and the majority comes from Absentee and Early voting.

Bye bye Guiliani.

Author:  xiayun [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

CNN is updating now too; it says 4% precinct for Republican.

Author:  Rod [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Wow. Even as more precincts begin to report Romney and McCain remain within 100 votes of each other. It's gonna be a close one! I notice quite a few still voted for Thompson. Had they not done so and gone with their second choice it is likely that Romney would now be leading.

Not much to say on the Democratic side, except that Kennedy's endorsement for Obama and Obama's win in SC doesn't seem to have hurt Clinton much. At least in FL...

Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Romney - 71,971
McCain - 67,453

Author:  A. G. [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Go Romney! Guy Smiley would be easier to beat than Professor Farnsworth.

Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

The site Xiayun linked to has updated to where Romney is around 75, McCain 71. CNN is reporting McCain with 33%, Romney with 32%, with McCain ahving about 85,000.

Author:  Anita Hussein Briem [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Eagle wrote:
The dems were stupid. This wouldn't be a big deal if the norm happened, and the race was about over by now. But everything is messed up, and every single delegate matters, and now two huge states have no say what so ever.

Way to alienate your base! Hillary is very smart for reaching out to the state.

Should have done what the Republicans did, unseat some of the delegates, but let the others count. Win, win for everyone.

Clinton needs Florida in the general election more than Obama does. It makes sense on her part to make a ruckus about this.

Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Is Florida winner take all, or split?

And I agree, she does need the state, but anyone does. It's a huge state when it comes to the general election, a swing state with a ton of electoral votes. Either way, I think it's a very smart move by her.

Author:  Jim Halpert [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Eagle wrote:
Is Florida winner take all, or split?

And I agree, she does need the state, but anyone does. It's a huge state when it comes to the general election, a swing state with a ton of electoral votes. Either way, I think it's a very smart move by her.


florida is a winner take all

fox news has mccain at 123 and romney at 110 now

Author:  Eagle [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Oh man, it looks like it could all be over for the Republicans tonight.

I don't know how I feel about all this! :wacko:

Author:  Anita Hussein Briem [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 8:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Eagle wrote:
Oh man, it looks like it could all be over for the Republicans tonight.

I don't know how I feel about all this! :wacko:

Spectacular!

Romney is taking a dive on Intrade.

Author:  Timayd [ Tue Jan 29, 2008 9:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Florida Primary

Hillary wins, so go her?

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