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 Parasite Will Win Best Picture 
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Yep.

Straight shootout between Parasite and 1917 for BP and BD.

Once...Hollywood has a chance at BD only if QT wins the DGA.

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Mon Jan 20, 2020 12:11 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
I think 1917 is the frontrunner rather than it being even. 1917 wasn’t in SAG or ACE so Parasite winning those doesn’t mean as much as 1917 winning PGA. SAG also gave ensemble to Hidden Figures and Black Panther so going with minority casts isn’t unheard of recently. Finally for whatever reason OUATIH has been a flop and was probably closer to missing Best Picture on in a field of 5 than winning at this point judging from missing the Editing nom (1917, Parasite, Irishman, Joker ahead of it, then either it or JoJo gets the last spot), so this cleared the way for Parasite win

Also which movie do we think the BAFTA voters are going to prefer, the British war movie or the Korean class drama...

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Mon Jan 20, 2020 1:47 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Yes 1917 is still ahead (especially considering Parasite has the International Oscar in the bag) but it can still go either way.

Sadly OUATIH is falling away - but it is the only one that will win an acting award so that may at least help keep QT in the mix for BD (as well as being overdue which has helped many actors and directors in the past).

Let's see who the DGA pick.

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Mon Jan 20, 2020 5:41 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Being a non-English language foreign movie is a big hurdle for Parasite. But it is a film that gets people to have conversations. For this reason, it will remain fresh on voters' minds and get a number of top votes.


Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:14 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
1917 reminded me a lot of The Revenant which fell short at the end, so I wonder if there’s a chance it follows the same arc and loses to the SAG film (Parasite) somehow. Then again having the British jizzing over it in its pocket is an advantage for 1917 the Revenant didn’t have, and its guild run is undeniably more impressive (won PGA unlike the Revenant, and its DGA is more impressive since Bong was a more viable alternative than McCarthy). 1917 winning just doesn’t feel right to me, it feels like the type of technical achievement that should be leaving the voters who have an emotional response to movies like Green Book cold. But I guess it’s going to happen.

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Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:52 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Shack wrote:
1917 reminded me a lot of The Revenant which fell short at the end, so I wonder if there’s a chance it follows the same arc and loses to the SAG film (Parasite) somehow. Then again having the British jizzing over it in its pocket is an advantage for 1917 the Revenant didn’t have, and its guild run is undeniably more impressive (won PGA unlike the Revenant, and its DGA is more impressive since Bong was a more viable alternative than McCarthy). 1917 winning just doesn’t feel right to me, it feels like the type of technical achievement that should be leaving the voters who have an emotional response to movies like Green Book cold. But I guess it’s going to happen.

I can't get myself to go see 1917 (not a war-movie fan), so I can't speak to its relative merits, but it does appear to have the momentum to win. But I still think there's a chance Parasite takes BP. Not holding my breath but I could see it. It'd be the most exciting win in awhile.

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Mon Feb 03, 2020 12:57 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
1917 is good though wouldn't say BP great. That said - its better than most of this past decade's BP winners (noting I haven't seen Slave).

Parasite is better though the jury is out on whether voters will think International is enough.

If 1917 has to win BP, would love QT to win BD and Bong to win screenplay.

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Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:41 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Shit - just saw Mendes win BD. Blahhh

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Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:43 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
My gut says 'Parasite' for BP and Mendes for BD.

'1917' reminds me of 'La La Land'. It's a by-the-numbers Oscar winner. It's a good-to-great film with enough prestige and Academy precursors. It's a logical choice.

But there's a few things working against it:

1) Is there enough passion for it vs. others in a preferential voting system? There's little deadweight in the category and we don't know enough about voters' preferences to project how they rank the set. The first round for Best Picture could well be a six-way tie (take out 'FvF', 'Little Women', and 'Marriage Story'). There's passion behind each of the other nominees. Voters could scheme and deliberately manipulate their rankings, too. Who knows how it plays out, but it's different from a year where there's only two logical contenders for BP.

2) How, if at all, are Academy voters internalizing the public backlash? They know 'Green Book' was panned in the media... they've seen the stories about AMPAS lacking diversity. Oscar winners are often chosen reactively. 'Parasite' gives them an easier way out than '1917'.

3) For all the arguments against 'Parasite' based on 'Roma' last year... it's a stronger beast. It's universal and accessible and more widely-seen. It's difficult to imagine voters ranking it in the bottom-half of the peer set if they've seen it.

4) 'Jojo Rabbit' is in the upper tier of contenders and probably cannibalizes more '1917' votes than 'Parasite' votes.


Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:48 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture


If many Academy voters think this way, Parasite is toast.


Mon Feb 03, 2020 2:51 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Parasite was toast the minute they included it in the Foreign Picture category. They should have gone for broke. I think this is 1917's to win.

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Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:41 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Chippy wrote:
Parasite was toast the minute they included it in the Foreign Picture category. They should have gone for broke. I think this is 1917's to win.


Are you implying Foreign Picture nominees can't win BP? If it was not nominated, it would have a better shot?

It's probably South Korea's fault to submit it for Best International Film. ;)


Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:50 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
i.hope wrote:
Chippy wrote:
Parasite was toast the minute they included it in the Foreign Picture category. They should have gone for broke. I think this is 1917's to win.


Are you implying Foreign Picture nominees can't win BP? If it was not nominated, it would have a better shot?

It's probably South Korea's fault to submit it for Best International Film. ;)


Not that they can't, but it's the same issue for Animated films. Voters will vote for it in the Intl Film category, and then think "well, I gave it that big award so I can vote for 1917 of BP". I think it would 100% have a better shot at Picture if they intentionally excluded it from Intl.

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Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:33 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
i.hope wrote:


If many Academy voters think this way, Parasite is toast.

That fucking irks me. Ugggh


Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:26 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
To me that says these people watch the films when they’re doing other stuff, which also explains the groupthink and short memories.


Tue Feb 04, 2020 3:44 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
apparently someone leaked the winners and they listed parasite as best picture winner

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Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:18 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Mau wrote:
apparently someone leaked the winners and they listed parasite as best picture winner


No, The Academy's twitter account posted their PREDICTIONS. It was literally just the results of fans predictions.

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Tue Feb 04, 2020 4:27 pm
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Fuck Magnus, but THANK YOU MAGNUS

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Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:44 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
HOW MANY TIMES WILL YOU DOUBT ME YOU FOOLS

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Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:56 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
god I’m fucking awesome.

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:09 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Love this win and it will be remembered for a very long time.


Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:17 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
For once I’m glad you’re right cause Parasite is the best movie they’ve awarded in like 12 years. Great start for the 2020s.


Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:40 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
People keep acting as if Moonlight isn’t incredible and it’s silly.

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:46 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
Moonlight is good for like 45 minutes and the last segment sucks. It’s like a 40 minute prologue to a gay porn.


Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:56 am
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Post Re: Parasite Will Win Best Picture
ok homo

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:59 am
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