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 Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long) 
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Post Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
I've come to realize Nolan has a real opportunity to sneak in with a shocking BD win over del Toro and Gerwig. Here are the reasons why:

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1. WB's huge Oscar campaign for Dunkirk Best Director. I've been seeing Oscar FYC commercials for Dunkirk every night during the Olympics in the Los Angeles tv market. The ads pretty much focus on Best Director in these commercials, with clips of crew heavily praising Christopher Nolan's direction. Don't really see much FYC tv ads for other films recently, especially outside BP.

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2. We know that the general online community thinks Nolan is deserving and overdue with his stellar history of work. I think his popular sentiment may carry over to Oscar voters as well, especially voters from the tech categories.

This filmography bred relationships with a lot of star actors, which other BD nominees have less. If actors decide to vote based on friendship (and friends' friends) over merit, that could really boost Nolan as well.

Some names include: Leonardo DiCaprio, Gary Oldman, Matthew McConaughey, Christian Bale, Hugh Jackman, Al Pacino, Liam Neeson, Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, Marion Cotillard, and Anne Hathaway.

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3. McDonagh's snub for Three Billboards really helps transfer additional votes to Nolan. Nolan now monopolize the sizeable British vote rather than splitting the pie with McDonagh.

Another big demographic gained is the angry bigot old white male demographic, i.e. those who sympathize with Sam Rockwell's character in Three Billboards. They are tired of Hispanic directors winning 3 of last 4 years, and perceive female and black empowerment taking over white men's spots.

For them, the clear choice is Nolan (all white men movie) over PTA (movie where 2 women exhibits great influence over Daniel Day Lewis.). Disclaimer, not saying most old white men are angry bigots, just that this subgroup of the bigger group would likely vote Nolan.

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4. Finally, I'd like to argue some (again not most) women voters could also be choosing Nolan. I'd compare it to the 2016 presidential election where white female voters for Donald Trump outnumbered white female voters for Hilary Clinton. My belief is women will not vote for someone simply for being a woman, and in fact, more likely would vote for her if she reaches even higher standards otherwise.

If they do not perceive Gerwig's direction to be at the same level as say a truly deserving female winner such as Katheryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, their vote will go to someone else. They really only want to award a woman if she truly has great directorial qualities and would hate the negative perception of an undeserving female winner..

Now why would a non-Gerwig female voter choose Nolan over del Toro? For one, The Shape of Water was written by both del Toro and another woman, so there could be resentment for del Toro getting all the directing credit for what another woman greatly contributed. Also there is some negative subtext to del Toro making the female protagonist a mute and objectifies her with gratuitous nude scenes. Whereas Nolan not really having women in his film would be perceived to be less audacious than a male director silencing a woman, stripping her, and mansplaining on her behalf (through Richard Jenkins).

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If Nolan wins BAFTA in a few hours, to me he becomes the favorite to win the Oscar as well. But even a loss there, conditions are still very favorable for an upset win for the reasons above.


Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:57 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Short version: even the Brits would not honor him or Dunkirk. He won't win.

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Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:53 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Yeah he ain’t winning.

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Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:14 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
I don't think he will, but it wouldn't surprise me. The movie has a better shot at Picture than he does at Director. That saying, if Dunkirk is 1-3 on a lot of people's ballots for Picture, it wouldn't surprise me if he gets enough votes in the Director category to put him over the top.

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Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:25 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Nolan is the new Scorsese. He needs more grey hair before a win!


Tue Feb 20, 2018 11:13 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
I’m hoping the social justice vote is so split that Dunkirk can sneak through on its own merits. Yes Lloyd, there is a chance.


Wed Feb 21, 2018 7:10 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
If the BAFTAs didn't give it to him the Oscars won't. Del Toro is winning this.

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Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:24 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
He will have to start kissing their asses to get votes in the future. I hope he refuses to do so. You should not have to grovel for votes. The campaigning aspect of it is very pathetic for all parties IMHO.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:27 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
so yeah I was wrong on this.

The odds aren't good for Caucasian male to win best director recently so not looking good for Nolan in the future.. Damien Chezelle was the only one in the last 6 years.

And for a movie directed by a white man to win Best Picture, that also happened once in the last 5 years (Spotlight).


Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:42 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Yep. I think if he had campaigned he would've won it easily. But he's not that guy. And he doesn't need to be that guy. He has enough respect that he'll get a win on his own, and probably before they give him an honorary one.

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Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:43 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Jmart wrote:
Yep. I think if he had campaigned he would've won it easily. But he's not that guy. And he doesn't need to be that guy. He has enough respect that he'll get a win on his own, and probably before they give him an honorary one.


He's not that guy and as long as there is a campaign system in place, someone like him can't win. Fincher is the same way. Paul Thomas Anderson is another one. They are not ass-kissers. James Cameron is another guy who won't kiss ass, but he won because Titanic was UNDENIABLE. It had everything the Academy could ask for and the box office performance was absolutely insane. They went out of their way to snub him with Avatar.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:52 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
How exactly do directors ass kiss? Do you mean those FYC ad campaigns? Because I thought those were done by the studio. Or is there another way that some directors ass kiss that I'm not aware of?

For sure though, Nolan is not the type to grovel. And I hope he never changes.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:57 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Algren wrote:
How exactly do directors ass kiss? Do you mean those FYC ad campaigns? Because I thought those were done by the studio. Or is there another way that some directors ass kiss that I'm not aware of?

For sure though, Nolan is not the type to grovel. And I hope he never changes.


There is actual campaigning...parties where the director has to kiss ass with voters. GDT is a very outgoing person and based on his speech mentioning immigration, it wouldn't surprise me if he (smartly) played that angle in his campaigning behind the scenes on top of general ass kissing with voters.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:01 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
So that's why his beard isn't totally grey. All that ass-motorboating.

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Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:10 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
redfirebird2008 wrote:
There is actual campaigning...parties where the director has to kiss ass with voters.

I wasn't aware of this. So that's happened since when?


Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:12 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Algren wrote:
redfirebird2008 wrote:
There is actual campaigning...parties where the director has to kiss ass with voters.

I wasn't aware of this. So that's happened since when?


Long time. Not sure when it started. Weinstein was pretty famous for strong-arming and playing politics with voters. His power goes back 25 years, so I would imagine you can say it started before him as well.

I'd be very curious to know what it was like in the days of Hitchcock and Kubrick, probably the two best directors in Hollywood history. Zero Director statues between the two of them. Both were known for being tough to work with and maybe not the nicest people in the world. Was there campaigning stuff going on back then too? Is that why those two got snubbed forever?


Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:17 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Edit: Red beat me to it.

If Harvey Weinstein didn’t invent it he sure as hell perfected it. He’s the reason Shakespeare in Love won over Saving Private Ryan.

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Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:18 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
I don't think ass-kissing actually mattered in this scenario. In various voting groups beyond just the Academy, GDT edged out Nolan. I think voters just liked Shape better than Dunkirk and felt like awarding GDT. It probably didn't hurt that GDT is 1) very likable dude 2) has built a credible resume 3) "diverse" pick. But I don't think those three elements were the differene maker.

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Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:32 am
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Alex Y. wrote:
And for a movie directed by a white man to win Best Picture, that also happened once in the last 5 years (Spotlight).

I try and try but am unable to see any red, yellow or black when seeing photos of GDT, AGI or AC.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:43 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Jeff Sneider said we will be hearing something soon about Nolan's next project. Would be pretty wild if it's this rumor about a porn girl in the 1980's who helped bring down a bunch of mafia people:

http://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2018/ ... e.html?m=1

This sounds like Nolan (WB/Batman in bold):

"The producers got the best director (A lister who had a very good 2017) for this project. As picky as he is, he jumped at this project. He's not known for his heartfelt movies, but with this script and his recent hit (___________) he's given wide berth. He's one of the few that could be trusted with this material, and do it proper without risk of any problems derailing it. The studio used this project as bait to try and lure him to other projects (his old project), but he won't commit to those. Meanwhile, the studio and director have held semi-formal casting sessions very, very, very secretly."

And this sounds like Bale (WB/Batman in bold):

"For male leads, this actor (foreign born A+ list mostly movie actor) has said he too would waive his fee, and possibly return to a franchise for the studio."


Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:26 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Nolan hasn't made a "low budget" movie since The Prestige and I don't know if hes gonna stop now. Plus, I feel he'd do something that he wrote originally.

Also, there may be an announcement soon but the film won't be coming until Q4 2019 at earliest. The gap from TDKR/Intersteallar was 28 months and the time gap between Interstellar/Dunkirk was 32 months. I doubt we see anything from Nolan until end of 2019.

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:17 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Magnus wrote:
Nolan hasn't made a "low budget" movie since The Prestige and I don't know if hes gonna stop now. Plus, I feel he'd do something that he wrote originally.

Also, there may be an announcement soon but the film won't be coming until Q4 2019 at earliest. The gap from TDKR/Intersteallar was 28 months and the time gap between Interstellar/Dunkirk was 32 months. I doubt we see anything from Nolan until end of 2019.


Rumor says the studio has already sunk tens of millions of dollars into the project even before it really gets off the ground. Some of the disgraced people involved sound like Brett Ratner, Bryan Singer, and Kevin Spacey. The Departed cost $90m in 2005-2006 dollars. Dunkirk cost $100m in 2016-2017 dollars. Pretty similar budget.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:26 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
"low scope" probably was a more appropriate term. Dunkirk budget was 100m which isn't even that big anymore compared to other blockbusters but it was a big-scope film.

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MadGez wrote:
Listen to Magnus he knows his shit.
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Magnus is right
trixster wrote:
magnus is my hero
Loyal wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Magnus is the fucking voice of reason.
That's scary.
bABA wrote:
fuck Magnus
zwackerm wrote:
You're incredibly overrated and and if they made a Pixar film about you it would gross less than The Good Dinosaur.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:28 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
Magnus wrote:
"low scope" probably was a more appropriate term. Dunkirk budget was 100m which isn't even that big anymore compared to other blockbusters but it was a big-scope film.


There is nothing to stop him from doing a smaller scale. But it would be wild as hell if this porn girl rumor is true. :funny:


Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:34 pm
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Post Re: Why Nolan could seriously upset for Best Director (long)
I hate to be upset at a Del Toro win, since I’d still consider him a top guy. But from here on out, anyone who beats Nolan is unworthy.


Tue Mar 06, 2018 1:04 am
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