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 The BP Whisperer Speaks: The Post Is Winning 
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Cream of the Crop
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Magnus wrote:
It's either Speilberg or it's Nolan.

Two white men - sounds about right.


Mon Nov 27, 2017 5:46 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
It’s going to be The Last Jedi

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Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:10 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Magnus wrote:
Keep in mind that we haven't had a BP winner since the King's Speech that didn't satisfy one of the minority/entertainment/political factor.

Time for an illness/disablity movie to regain the Oscar crown!


Mon Nov 27, 2017 6:24 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Don't be a pussy. Pick one and I'll read your post.


Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:16 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Magnus, what's your take on Three Billboards? Does it stand a chance? You did not mention it in your opening post...


Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:10 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
I think you should consider the women factor as politically motivated in light of the sexual harassment. Going a female directed movie in Lady Bird can be this year's Moonlight in a way

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Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:19 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
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Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:52 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
December 9th The Last Jedi

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Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:06 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
I'm still going with Three Billboards and if not that then The Post. Dunkirk should get Director though.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:51 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
I'm Dunkirk all the way.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:53 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Algren wrote:
I'm Dunkirk all the way.

Hope or prediction?


Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:33 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
I finally saw the trailer for Call Me By Your Name for the first time, and it looks super romantic.

If the overrated and unromantic Brokeback Mountain was able to take home best director and best adapted screenplay way back in 2006, I think the Academy is ripe to return to gay in 2018.

My official early prediction for best picture Oscar is Call Me By Your Name.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:40 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
tree and a half wrote:
Algren wrote:
I'm Dunkirk all the way.

Hope or prediction?

Both.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:12 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Magnus wrote:
Keep in mind that we haven't had a BP winner since the King's Speech that didn't satisfy one of the minority/entertainment/political factor.

This got me thinking of the primary Oscar-bait categories:

- minority/race (esp.:black)
- entertainment (esp. mirror on Hollywood)
- political (esp. rahrahUSA#1/terrorist)
- disability/illness
- LGBT
- woman power (surely this year's hot fad)


In that light, here's a look at recent BP winners:

2016 - Moonlight - race/LGBT
2015 - Spotlight - political
2014 - Birdman - entertainment
2013 - 12 Years A Slave - race
2012 - Argo - political
2011 - The Artist - entertainment
2010 - The King's Speech - disability
2009 - The Hurt Locker - political
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire - race
2007 - No Country For Old Men - NA
2006 - The Departed - NA
2005 - Crash - political
2004 - Million Dollar Baby - disability
2003 - LOTR: ROTK - NA
2002 - Chicago - entertainment
2001 - A Beautiful Mind - disability
2000 - Gladiator - NA


Last edited by tree and a half on Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:54 am, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:52 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Birdman is also entertainment.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:48 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Algren wrote:
Birdman is also entertainment.

Corrected.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:54 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
tree and a half wrote:
I finally saw the trailer for Call Me By Your Name for the first time, and it looks super romantic.

If the overrated and unromantic Brokeback Mountain was able to take home best director and best adapted screenplay way back in 2006, I think the Academy is ripe to return to gay in 2018.

My official early prediction for best picture Oscar is Call Me By Your Name.


I hope you're right. They can not award a gay film for several years if they do it just one more time for this film :sweat:. But I'm not predicting it at all. I see several nominations. Only win I'm currently sure of is Adapted Screenplay.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:39 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Magnus wrote:
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Don't be a pussy. Pick one and I'll read your post.


It’s extremely hard this year cause the front runner hasn’t even been screened yet. I’m not ballsy enough to pick a BP before it screens.
The Post just can't win in todays world. If a white man film is gonna take it, it has to be something huge like Dunkirk.

Lady Bird will miss because the academy doesn't like laughter. It is between Dunkirk, Call Me and Get Out. Unless Shape's producers can spin a great "love trumps hate" narrative.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:41 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Last 10 Best Pictures if it was in 2017 social media/SJW conditions

2006 - Dreamgirls (Scorsese gets Director)
2007 - No Country for Old Men
2008 - Slumdog Millionaire (Milk flip possible?)
2009 - Precious
2010 - The King's Speech (No PC alternatives this year unless you give it to The Kids Are All Right which I don't think has the gas)
2011 - The Help
2012 - Lincoln
2013 - 12 Years A Slave (Wins director and takes every guild/is untouchable BP win going into the night)
2014 - Birdman (Selma comes closer but I think we're too close to present to flip this one to it)
2015 - Spotlight
2016 - Moonlight

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Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:51 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
I get the impression Call Me By Your Name is a stylistically driven film. The type that Awardswatch posters jizz in a peach about its cinematography and how it's beautiful like a painting. This would also fit the tradition of Italian filmmaking. Does it hit the traditional story beats enough for AMPAs voters?

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Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:09 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: The Post Is Winning
NBR winner hasn't won Best Picture since Slumdog and these seem like the type of old guys who love Clint Eastwood so that could play in The Post's favor. But it should be the frontrunner

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Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:11 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: The Post Is Winning
Young voters will likely favor Lady Bird or Get Out over The Post, unless Donald Trump and Fox marketing help turn it into a four-quadrant movie.

Dunkirk is still the safer crossover choice. But it might be too British for Americans.


Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:56 pm
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: The Post Is Winning
Probably will be a split with The Post getting Best Picture and Nolan getting Best Director. That's a similar result to what we saw with Spotlight and The Revenant. Of course it's entirely possible they do a sweep for Spielberg. Dunkirk came out so early in the year and they've never been big fans of Nolan. Very easy for that one to fade into the background a bit.


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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: The Post Is Winning
I think Lady Bird is the potential dark horse but unless The Post absolutely bombs at the box office and/or someone involved is subject to a harassment scandal, it will probably win. Dunkirk could have won if it had been released after October.

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Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:35 am
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Post Re: The BP Whisperer Speaks: It's Dunkirk or The Post
Shack wrote:
I get the impression Call Me By Your Name is a stylistically driven film. The type that Awardswatch posters jizz in a peach about its cinematography and how it's beautiful like a painting. This would also fit the tradition of Italian filmmaking. Does it hit the traditional story beats enough for AMPAs voters?


They're just not giving it to a film about a 24 year old fucking a 17 year old. Not after Spaceygate. Yes I know the age of consent in Italy is 14 or whatever. It will still make a sizeable portion of the mostly old Academy uncomfortable.

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