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| Oscar Predictions http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=83531 |
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| Author: | stuffp [ Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
It is, good trivia info. |
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| Author: | nghtvsn [ Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Nothing exciting. No surprises. Three Billboards Del Toro Gary Frances Rockwell Allison Jordan Ivory Coco |
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| Author: | Kenspy [ Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
We'll never know, but I wouldn't be surprised if Three Billboards came in 4th. It does so poorly on preferential ballots, and already whiffed at getting a Director nom. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Hopefully this year someone mistakenly reads out Peele's name as Best Director. |
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| Author: | Price [ Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Algren wrote: Hopefully this year someone mistakenly reads out Peele's name as Best Director. Beatty and Dunaway will present again, so... |
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| Author: | Alex Y. [ Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
It’s weird but I feel like the top two contenders for BD is completely different than the top 2 contenders for BP. BD is between The Shape of Water and Dunkirk. BP is between Three Billboards and Lady Bird. |
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| Author: | stuffp [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
It's a stupid article, but I'm sharing it nonetheless, actually just because of it I guess: https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/02/politics/oscars-hispanic-asian-representation-trnd/index.html Why don't "they" understand it's just about quality, and not about race...ok, maybe certain people get less chances to flourish, but rewarding them nonetheless would just not be right either. |
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| Author: | MGKC [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Independent Spirit went to Get Out. Last four years, that show has matched the Best Picture winner. I would so love a Get Out win, as #1, it's a truly great film, and #2, it'd be really neat to see a "horror" movie win Best Picture. Three Billboards or Shape of Water winning is boring. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Alex Y. wrote: It’s weird but I feel like the top two contenders for BD is completely different than the top 2 contenders for BP. BD is between The Shape of Water and Dunkirk. BP is between Three Billboards and Lady Bird. I'm thinking Best Picture comes down to 3B and Lady Bird too. The more I think of it the more Gerwig ending the show on stage accepting Best Picture would be the most #MeToo friendly thing they can do. If Shape loses it could be a sign that PGA and DGA are quickly becoming less relevant for predicting BP, they both would have missed 3 in a row, DGA 4 of 5, and PGA 3.5 out of 5 (Gravity tied 12YAS). Both blocks represent the older white man AMPAs vote, before they were forced to become more socially conscience and expand their voting block. I understand the Get Out argument but not winning SAG seems glaring, it seems like it would have been perfect opportunity to stake its claim as a real BP contender with SAG's diverse hip voting block. SAG has been the most #OscarsSoWhite apologetic awards show with wins for Denzel, Elba, Hidden Figures. Get Out needed to get all the young votes because old people and British aren't voting for it. Then again it could be argued Lady Bird taking losing at SAG is important as well since they've been more kind to comedies than Oscars with wins to Little Miss Sunshine and Sideways. Overall 3B seems to have the actors and the British and is a somewhat topical enough choice |
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| Author: | Jmart [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Here are my final picks. 1. Best Documentary Short Subject - Heroin(e) 2. Best Documentary Feature - Last Men in Aleppo 3. Best Live Action Short Film - DeKalb Elementary 4. Best Animated Short Film - Dear Basketball 5. Best Foreign Language Film - A Fantastic Woman 6. Best Sound Editing - Dunkirk 7. Best Sound Mixing - Baby Driver 8. Best Makeup - Darkest Hour 9. Best Production Design - The Shape of Water 10. Best Film Editing - Dunkirk 11. Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread 12. Best Visual Effects - War for the Planet of the Apes 13. Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049 14. Best Original Screenplay - Get Out 15. Best Animated Feature Film - Coco 16. Best Original Score - The Shape of Water 17. Best Original Song - This is Me (The Greatest Showmam) 18. Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name 19. Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney (I, Tonya) 20. Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) 21. Best Actress - Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) 22. Best Actor - Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) 23. Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water) 24. Best Picture - The Shape of Water The Shape of Water - 4 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 2 Dunkirk - 2 Darkest Hour - 2 I, Tonya - 1 Call Me By Your Name - 1 The Greatest Showman - 1 Blade Runner 2049 - 1 Coco (best movie of the year) - 1 Get Out - 1 War for the Planet of the Apes - 1 Phantom Thread - 1 Baby Driver - 1 My reasoning Trying to figure out the preferential balloting. There is no front-runner and the Golden Globes taught us nothing because. There are 6,687 Academy members. There are 90 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press. The foreign press picked a film made by a foreigner about how they see America. Not everyone appreciated it. If I had a guess as to what the average #8-#5 looks like, I think it looks like... 9. Darkest Hour 8. The Post 7. Call Me By Your Name 6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri None of them are nominated for Best Director, but Three Billboards has a nomination in Editing. Maybe that’s an outlier, or maybe that means it’s the front runner? That leaves Phantom Thread, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water. 5. Phantom Thread - If it had an Editing nom, I think it would have more of a chance because it has the right nominations (outside of actress where it got snubbed). I don’t think it’s winning any of them except for Costume. It won’t win. The rest I won’t even bother numbering the rest because I think the averages will be so close. Lady Bird - Could win Best Picture, but I don’t see it winning in any other category it’s nominated in. If it does, don’t be surprised if it wins. It also has a 99% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and has appeared on numbers Top 10 lists this year. People love it. Dunkirk - Has a chance because of the preferential ballot. This is going to be somehwere 1-5 on most lists. It also has the nominations in all the right categories (editing/director) that lead to a winner. But it’s an old fashioned war movie about a bunch of white men. Good luck. Get Out - Same situation as Lady Bird except the momentum has been building. It’s why I have a gut feeling it will win (yet won’t actually predict it) but I wouldn’t put any money on it. The Shape of Water - For all of the reasons mentioned above, and it’s a story about how love comes in all different forms. Mix in some love for old fashioned Hollywood and I think you’ve got your winner. The only flaw is that it might have been a little too weird for some people and knocked the average spot down. And if it wins Editing early on, I don’t think anything will stop it. |
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| Author: | Price [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Best Foreign Language Film - A Fantastic Woman Best Sound Editing - Dunkirk Best Sound Mixing - Dunkirk Best Makeup - Darkest Hour Best Production Design - The Shape of Water Best Film Editing - Dunkirk Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread Best Visual Effects - War for the Planet of the Apes Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049 Best Original Screenplay - Lady Bird Best Animated Feature Film - Coco Best Original Score - The Shape of Water Best Original Song - This is Me (The Greatest Showmam) Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney (I, Tonya) Best Supporting Actor - Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) Best Actress - Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) Best Actor - Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water) Best Picture - The Shape of Water |
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| Author: | i.hope [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Best Picture Get Out Directing The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro) Writing (Original Screenplay) Get Out (Written by Jordan Peele) Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Call Me by Your Name (Screenplay by James Ivory) Actor in a Leading Role Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) Actress in a Leading Role Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri) Actor in a Supporting Role Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri) Actress in a Supporting Role Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) Cinematography Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) Editing Lee Smith (Dunkirk) |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
It’s crazy that we have no idea who is gonna win. Go Dunkirk!!! I’m gonna stick with Get Out as my prediction though. |
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| Author: | Jmart [ Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:55 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Jmart wrote: Here are my final picks. 1. Best Documentary Short Subject - Heroin(e) 2. Best Documentary Feature - Last Men in Aleppo 3. Best Live Action Short Film - DeKalb Elementary 4. Best Animated Short Film - Dear Basketball 5. Best Foreign Language Film - A Fantastic Woman 6. Best Sound Editing - Dunkirk 7. Best Sound Mixing - Baby Driver 8. Best Makeup - Darkest Hour 9. Best Production Design - The Shape of Water 10. Best Film Editing - Dunkirk 11. Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread 12. Best Visual Effects - War for the Planet of the Apes 13. Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049 14. Best Original Screenplay - Get Out 15. Best Animated Feature Film - Coco 16. Best Original Score - The Shape of Water 17. Best Original Song - This is Me (The Greatest Showmam) 18. Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name 19. Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney (I, Tonya) 20. Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) 21. Best Actress - Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) 22. Best Actor - Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) 23. Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water) 24. Best Picture - The Shape of Water The Shape of Water - 4 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 2 Dunkirk - 2 Darkest Hour - 2 I, Tonya - 1 Call Me By Your Name - 1 The Greatest Showman - 1 Blade Runner 2049 - 1 Coco (best movie of the year) - 1 Get Out - 1 War for the Planet of the Apes - 1 Phantom Thread - 1 Baby Driver - 1 18 of 24 17 of 20 in the categories people care about |
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| Author: | Algren [ Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Who cares about those odd few. For me, you basically flawlessly predicted the Oscars this year. |
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| Author: | Jmart [ Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:00 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
Thanks. Yeah, this was a rare good year of picking for me. I think getting a sense of the preferential ballot and then looking at where the other nominations went really helped. There's usually at least one dumb curveball thrown in there (like the year Stallone should've won for Creed), but this year was pretty by the book. The only thing that was close to a curveball this year was Jordan Peele winning screenplay, but the only other contender there was Three Billboards, and there was too much backlash there. Get Out was too much of a cultural phenomenon for it to walk away with nothing and this was the easiest award to give it. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Oscar Predictions |
So Netflix is finishing and releasing Orson Welles lost last film this year. It would be funny if he got nominated for Best Director |
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