World of KJ :: View topic - Oscar Predictions

i.hope wrote:

Best Picture (in order of likelihood)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out

Shack wrote:

If you vote against 12 Years A Slave you're a racist = If you vote for Dunkirk over Lady Bird, Get Out and Three Billboards you support the white male patriarchy over females, minorities and homosexuals. Dunkirk is the ANTI Moonlight

Shack wrote:

These seem like a possible lineup but it is too white and old, something has to give:

Best Picture: The Post
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metclaf, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

McDormand or Janney winning instead of Streep or Metclaf still makes it white/old. I guess Nolan might be weak link. Maybe Guadagnino or Gerwig in his place.

zwackerm wrote:

Streep won't win, will she?

Magic Mike wrote:

I loved Lady Bird and Gerwig, but feel like it would be such a joke for her to be nominated for let alone win Best Director. There is seriously nothing impressive about her directing job. Edgar Wright for Baby Driver would be a much better nominee than her but he's being overlooked. Now if a woman directed Baby Driver it would win Best Director. That's really the only reason she's going to be nominated for Lady Bird and it would be the only reason she'd win. Obviously I'm hoping Guadagnino gets in for Director but I doubt it happens.

Flava'd vs The World wrote:

Nolan losing is gonna hurt, but the narrative has already been written for Gerwig.

i.hope wrote:

Magic Mike wrote:

Isn't Baby Driver too gimmicky and action-oriented for Director or Picture? A female director would not have helped much.

Shack wrote:

I am thinking Dunkirk is the big loser on nomination day and Nolan is once again snubbed for Director. Looking at the Best Picture nominees it's basically all minorities, females and LGBT and Dunkirk is the one that stands out like a sore thumb. Just like how Ed Sheeran couldn't even get a best album nomination for Divide, awards shows are dead for white male stuff right now. The argument against it is the remaining voters on the other side who went for Hacksaw last year still need something to vote for, but that'll sneak it into the Picture field

Author:	Magic Mike [ Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:48 pm ]
Post subject:	Oscar Predictions
Anyone brave enough to make early predictions? Here are my predictions for the major categories. BEST PICTURE Dunkirk Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri The Shape of Water Call Me By Your Name The Post Lady Bird The Florida Project Get Out BEST ACTOR Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Tom Hanks, The Post James Franco, The Disaster Artist Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name BEST ACTRESS Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Meryl Streep, The Post Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Alison Janney, I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water Kristen Scott Thomas, The Darkest Hour Holly Hunter, The Big Sick BEST DIRECTOR Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Gullermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Lady Bird Get Out The Post The Shape of Water BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Call Me By Your Name Molly's Game The Disaster Artist Mudbound Last Flag Flying

Author:	i.hope [ Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:01 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Best Picture (in order of likelihood) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Get Out The Post Dunkirk Lady Bird Call Me by Your Name The Shape of Water Wonder

Author:	Barrabás [ Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:09 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
I just know that Dunkirk, Lady Bird, Call Me By Your Name and, unless it has mediocre reviews, The Post, are shoo-ins.

Author:	Algren [ Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:00 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
i.hope wrote: Best Picture (in order of likelihood) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Get Out lol, nope.

Author:	Shack [ Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:16 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
It's not a frontrunner but I think Get Out has some chance to win as well. What I really bet against winning is Dunkirk. In this year and with the PR mess they're dealing with, and contenders including female led or made films (Lady Bird/Three Billboards), a gay film (Call Me By Your Name), race (Get Out), how would SJWs react if this was the movie they gave BP to? If you vote against 12 Years A Slave you're a racist = If you vote for Dunkirk over Lady Bird, Get Out and Three Billboards you support the white male patriarchy over females, minorities and homosexuals. Dunkirk is the ANTI Moonlight

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Author:	i.hope [ Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:18 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Shack wrote: If you vote against 12 Years A Slave you're a racist = If you vote for Dunkirk over Lady Bird, Get Out and Three Billboards you support the white male patriarchy over females, minorities and homosexuals. Dunkirk is the ANTI Moonlight It sounds like you read too much Breitbart. Dunkirk is like a display of British patriotism by a socialist. It is full of helpless little British soldiers yearning to run away and eventually being rescued by civilians. It is a counter-"hero" culture war film. The absence of noble battle scenes (in fact it is about retreating in the face of defeat) and the lack of sentimentality until the ending are not typical of a masculine war film. The film is more likely to tick off right-wing critics than the so-called SJWs as conveniently defined by the reactionary Right.

Author:	Shack [ Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:27 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
These seem like a possible lineup but it is too white and old, something has to give: Best Picture: The Post Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metclaf, Lady Bird Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri McDormand or Janney winning instead of Streep or Metclaf still makes it white/old. I guess Nolan might be weak link. Maybe Guadagnino or Gerwig in his place.

Author:	zwackerm [ Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:40 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Streep won't win, will she?

Author:	Price [ Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:25 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Shack wrote: These seem like a possible lineup but it is too white and old, something has to give: Best Picture: The Post Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metclaf, Lady Bird Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri McDormand or Janney winning instead of Streep or Metclaf still makes it white/old. I guess Nolan might be weak link. Maybe Guadagnino or Gerwig in his place. Because Guadagnino is black and young.

Author:	Magic Mike [ Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:51 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Streep won't win, will she? I hope not. I'd love to see Ronan win personally. I won't bet on it but she does seem to be gaining traction. I'm even more positive Gerwig is getting in than when I posted my prediction of her.

Author:	i.hope [ Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:16 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
I think Gerwig is a lock for Director nominee. But voters will likely favor Nolan as a consolation prize to him to correct the injustice of snubbing him for years, like they did for Scorsese (The Departed) and DiCaprio (The Revenant). Best Director (in order of likelihood) Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Steven Spielberg, The Post (two out of three?) Gullermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water Jordan Peele, Get Out Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

Author:	Shack [ Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:17 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
After seeing the trailer I'm pretty low on Shape of Water's chances and can see Hawkins snubbed. I know Del Toro has his fans pushing it but it's clearly going to be one of the most weirdest films of the year which usually alienate AMPAs. Maybe it's the type of film that gets lone director nod.

Author:	Shack [ Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:54 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Not sure about Picture but I'm gonna say Jordan Peele wins Best Director. I forgot that both 12 Years A Slave and Moonlight lost Best Director. Plus it's really hard to figure out how a black person wins an acting award this year, they would have to reach for Mary J. Blige or something, so first black Best Director win is how they fill that quota. Also in the slim chance that no black actors get nominated, Get Out is a lock to win Best Picture and Best Director, it would be racial Argo

Author:	stuffp [ Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:28 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
I am not so sure, I think it getting nominations would already considered as enough victories for everyone.

Author:	Algren [ Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:44 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
If black people got noms in every category and won none or just a few, they'll play their favourite role ... the victim.

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Author:	i.hope [ Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:56 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Christopher Nolan will probably get the sympathy vote this year.

Author:	Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:03 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Only a few weeks away: Call Me By Your Name Dunkirk Get Out - winner Ladybird Mudbound The Post The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi Three Billboards Director: Greta Gerwig Actor: James Franco Actress: Saoirse Ronan Suppt act: Willem Dafoe Suppt actress: Mary J Blige Cinematography: Dunkirk Editing: Dunkirk Orig screenplay: Get Out Adapt screenplay: Call Me By Your Name Score: Dunkirk Art Direction: The Shape of Water All sound and effects: Dunkirk

Author:	Magic Mike [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
I loved Lady Bird and Gerwig, but feel like it would be such a joke for her to be nominated for let alone win Best Director. There is seriously nothing impressive about her directing job. Edgar Wright for Baby Driver would be a much better nominee than her but he's being overlooked. Now if a woman directed Baby Driver it would win Best Director. That's really the only reason she's going to be nominated for Lady Bird and it would be the only reason she'd win. Obviously I'm hoping Guadagnino gets in for Director but I doubt it happens.

Author:	i.hope [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:13 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Magic Mike wrote: I loved Lady Bird and Gerwig, but feel like it would be such a joke for her to be nominated for let alone win Best Director. There is seriously nothing impressive about her directing job. Edgar Wright for Baby Driver would be a much better nominee than her but he's being overlooked. Now if a woman directed Baby Driver it would win Best Director. That's really the only reason she's going to be nominated for Lady Bird and it would be the only reason she'd win. Obviously I'm hoping Guadagnino gets in for Director but I doubt it happens. Isn't Baby Driver too gimmicky and action-oriented for Director or Picture? A female director would not have helped much.

Author:	i.hope [ Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:24 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote: Nolan losing is gonna hurt, but the narrative has already been written for Gerwig. I disagree. I think Nolan is still the favorite to win Director. The voters are going to compensate him for the snubs (TDK, Inception, Interstellar). And Dunkirk is considered less commercial than his other recent blockbusters, thus a likely awards contender. Guillermo del Toro is in a similar situation to Nolan. But he and his films are less mainstream. Gerwig is considered a newcomer and more a writer-director (writer first, director second). I don't think she will win but she is a strong contender in a rather weak year.

Author:	Magic Mike [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:05 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
i.hope wrote: Magic Mike wrote: I loved Lady Bird and Gerwig, but feel like it would be such a joke for her to be nominated for let alone win Best Director. There is seriously nothing impressive about her directing job. Edgar Wright for Baby Driver would be a much better nominee than her but he's being overlooked. Now if a woman directed Baby Driver it would win Best Director. That's really the only reason she's going to be nominated for Lady Bird and it would be the only reason she'd win. Obviously I'm hoping Guadagnino gets in for Director but I doubt it happens. Isn't Baby Driver too gimmicky and action-oriented for Director or Picture? A female director would not have helped much. I really don't think so. Believe me, had a female director been behind the film it would be getting a lot more attention this year. Anyway, I still think Gerwig isn't winning Director anyway. It's going to be Nolan.

Author:	Shack [ Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:09 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
The case for Get Out and Lady Bird is strong but I could still see the race going back to Three Billboards. For whatever reason it didn't do as well in the critics awards as expected but that can turn. I remember when Argo felt like it was losing to Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln for a bit. Three Billboards is not a bad hedge between being PC enough but being in in line with awards history a little more than Get Out or Lady Bird BP wins

Author:	Shack [ Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:09 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
I am thinking Dunkirk is the big loser on nomination day and Nolan is once again snubbed for Director. Looking at the Best Picture nominees it's basically all minorities, females and LGBT and Dunkirk is the one that stands out like a sore thumb. Just like how Ed Sheeran couldn't even get a best album nomination for Divide, awards shows are dead for white male stuff right now. The argument against it is the remaining voters on the other side who went for Hacksaw last year still need something to vote for, but that'll sneak it into the Picture field

Author:	Barrabás [ Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:04 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Oscar Predictions
Shack wrote: I am thinking Dunkirk is the big loser on nomination day and Nolan is once again snubbed for Director. Looking at the Best Picture nominees it's basically all minorities, females and LGBT and Dunkirk is the one that stands out like a sore thumb. Just like how Ed Sheeran couldn't even get a best album nomination for Divide, awards shows are dead for white male stuff right now. The argument against it is the remaining voters on the other side who went for Hacksaw last year still need something to vote for, but that'll sneak it into the Picture field Ed Sheeran was snubbed because the Grammys have a (literal) secret committee that rearranges the nominations for the big four categories based on the Top 20 most voted. From those Top 20 entries, they can pick and choose whatever they want for the nominations based on politics, ratings, etc. Whereas the Oscars don't have any such rearranging and the nominees are purely based on what the Academy votes for.