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 Oscar Predictions 
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Very early predictions

Best Picture
The Shape of Water

Directing
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Written by Martin McDonagh)

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Call Me by Your Name (Screenplay by James Ivory)

Actor in a Leading Role*
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Actress in a Leading Role*
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Actor in a Supporting Role*
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Actress in a Supporting Role*
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)

Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 (Roger A. Deakins)

Film Editing
The Shape of Water (Sidney Wolinsky)

Sound Editing
Baby Driver (Julian Slater)

Sound Mixing
The Shape of Water (Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier)

Music (Original Score)*
The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat)

Music (Original Song)
"Remember Me" from Coco

Animated Feature Film*
Coco (Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson)

Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

Visual Effects*
Blade Runner 2049

Production Design
The Shape of Water

Makeup*
Darkest Hour

Costume Design
Phantom Thread

The predictions with an asterisk next to them are the only predictions I have any confidence in.

The Shape of Water - 5
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 3
Blade Runner 2049 - 3
Coco - 2
Darkest Hour - 2
I, Tonya - 1
Call Me By Your Name - 1
Baby Driver - 1
Phantom Thread - 1
Lady Bird - 1
A Fantastic Woman - 1

It wouldn’t surprise me if Get Out gets Screenplay. I also think it’s down to Shape of Water and Lady Bird for Picture. If Del Toro wins Lady Bird will win BP and vice versa. I don’t think Lady Bird gets shutout considering the response and what’s gone on this year. That’s why I think Get Out has a very good chance at Screenplay even though I didn’t pick it. And even though i didn’t predict it to win anything, I sure hope Dunkirk gets something (probably cinematography and Deakins walks away empty handed again).

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Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:00 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
The person I saw The Shape of Water, though far from being a prude, couldn't get over the masturbation scene at the beginning - she said it was unnecessary to the Sally Hawkins character. I think that scene alone will be the reason that Guillermo doesn't take home the best picture oscar.


Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:29 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions


Wed Feb 28, 2018 6:55 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
tree and a half wrote:
The person I saw The Shape of Water, though far from being a prude, couldn't get over the masturbation scene at the beginning - she said it was unnecessary to the Sally Hawkins character. I think that scene alone will be the reason that Guillermo doesn't take home the best picture oscar.


I haven't seen the film (yet), but that coupled, with the honest trailer I just saw, makes it complete sense that a horny woman would end up banging a fish.


Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:24 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
It is astonishing the amount of territories where it is STILL perfectly legal to fuck animals.

Russia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Finland, Iceland, Germany, Romania, Cuba, Chile, Argentina, and the USA (New Mexico, Wyoming, DC, Hawaii, Kentucky, and West Virginia).


Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:32 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
It is, good trivia info.


Thu Mar 01, 2018 12:22 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Nothing exciting. No surprises.

Three Billboards
Del Toro
Gary
Frances
Rockwell
Allison
Jordan
Ivory
Coco

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Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:42 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
We'll never know, but I wouldn't be surprised if Three Billboards came in 4th. It does so poorly on preferential ballots, and already whiffed at getting a Director nom.


Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:43 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Hopefully this year someone mistakenly reads out Peele's name as Best Director.


Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:05 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Algren wrote:
Hopefully this year someone mistakenly reads out Peele's name as Best Director.


Beatty and Dunaway will present again, so...


Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:13 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
It’s weird but I feel like the top two contenders for BD is completely different than the top 2 contenders for BP.

BD is between The Shape of Water and Dunkirk.
BP is between Three Billboards and Lady Bird.


Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:25 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
It's a stupid article, but I'm sharing it nonetheless, actually just because of it I guess:
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/02/politics/oscars-hispanic-asian-representation-trnd/index.html

Why don't "they" understand it's just about quality, and not about race...ok, maybe certain people get less chances to flourish, but rewarding them nonetheless would just not be right either.


Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:33 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Independent Spirit went to Get Out. Last four years, that show has matched the Best Picture winner.

I would so love a Get Out win, as #1, it's a truly great film, and #2, it'd be really neat to see a "horror" movie win Best Picture. Three Billboards or Shape of Water winning is boring.


Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:27 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Alex Y. wrote:
It’s weird but I feel like the top two contenders for BD is completely different than the top 2 contenders for BP.

BD is between The Shape of Water and Dunkirk.
BP is between Three Billboards and Lady Bird.


I'm thinking Best Picture comes down to 3B and Lady Bird too. The more I think of it the more Gerwig ending the show on stage accepting Best Picture would be the most #MeToo friendly thing they can do. If Shape loses it could be a sign that PGA and DGA are quickly becoming less relevant for predicting BP, they both would have missed 3 in a row, DGA 4 of 5, and PGA 3.5 out of 5 (Gravity tied 12YAS). Both blocks represent the older white man AMPAs vote, before they were forced to become more socially conscience and expand their voting block.

I understand the Get Out argument but not winning SAG seems glaring, it seems like it would have been perfect opportunity to stake its claim as a real BP contender with SAG's diverse hip voting block. SAG has been the most #OscarsSoWhite apologetic awards show with wins for Denzel, Elba, Hidden Figures. Get Out needed to get all the young votes because old people and British aren't voting for it. Then again it could be argued Lady Bird taking losing at SAG is important as well since they've been more kind to comedies than Oscars with wins to Little Miss Sunshine and Sideways. Overall 3B seems to have the actors and the British and is a somewhat topical enough choice


Sun Mar 04, 2018 3:09 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Here are my final picks.

1. Best Documentary Short Subject - Heroin(e)
2. Best Documentary Feature - Last Men in Aleppo
3. Best Live Action Short Film - DeKalb Elementary
4. Best Animated Short Film - Dear Basketball
5. Best Foreign Language Film - A Fantastic Woman
6. Best Sound Editing - Dunkirk
7. Best Sound Mixing - Baby Driver
8. Best Makeup - Darkest Hour
9. Best Production Design - The Shape of Water
10. Best Film Editing - Dunkirk
11. Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread
12. Best Visual Effects - War for the Planet of the Apes
13. Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049
14. Best Original Screenplay - Get Out
15. Best Animated Feature Film - Coco
16. Best Original Score - The Shape of Water
17. Best Original Song - This is Me (The Greatest Showmam)
18. Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name
19. Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
20. Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
21. Best Actress - Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
22. Best Actor - Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
23. Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
24. Best Picture - The Shape of Water

The Shape of Water - 4
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 2
Dunkirk - 2
Darkest Hour - 2
I, Tonya - 1
Call Me By Your Name - 1
The Greatest Showman - 1
Blade Runner 2049 - 1
Coco (best movie of the year) - 1
Get Out - 1
War for the Planet of the Apes - 1
Phantom Thread - 1
Baby Driver - 1

My reasoning

Trying to figure out the preferential balloting. There is no front-runner and the Golden Globes taught us nothing because. There are 6,687 Academy members. There are 90 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press. The foreign press picked a film made by a foreigner about how they see America. Not everyone appreciated it. If I had a guess as to what the average #8-#5 looks like, I think it looks like...

9. Darkest Hour
8. The Post
7. Call Me By Your Name
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

None of them are nominated for Best Director, but Three Billboards has a nomination in Editing. Maybe that’s an outlier, or maybe that means it’s the front runner?

That leaves Phantom Thread, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water.

5. Phantom Thread - If it had an Editing nom, I think it would have more of a chance because it has the right nominations (outside of actress where it got snubbed). I don’t think it’s winning any of them except for Costume. It won’t win.

The rest I won’t even bother numbering the rest because I think the averages will be so close.

Lady Bird - Could win Best Picture, but I don’t see it winning in any other category it’s nominated in. If it does, don’t be surprised if it wins. It also has a 99% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and has appeared on numbers Top 10 lists this year. People love it.

Dunkirk - Has a chance because of the preferential ballot. This is going to be somehwere 1-5 on most lists. It also has the nominations in all the right categories (editing/director) that lead to a winner. But it’s an old fashioned war movie about a bunch of white men. Good luck.

Get Out - Same situation as Lady Bird except the momentum has been building. It’s why I have a gut feeling it will win (yet won’t actually predict it) but I wouldn’t put any money on it.

The Shape of Water - For all of the reasons mentioned above, and it’s a story about how love comes in all different forms. Mix in some love for old fashioned Hollywood and I think you’ve got your winner. The only flaw is that it might have been a little too weird for some people and knocked the average spot down. And if it wins Editing early on, I don’t think anything will stop it.

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Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:29 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Best Foreign Language Film - A Fantastic Woman
Best Sound Editing - Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing - Dunkirk
Best Makeup - Darkest Hour
Best Production Design - The Shape of Water
Best Film Editing - Dunkirk
Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread
Best Visual Effects - War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Screenplay - Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature Film - Coco
Best Original Score - The Shape of Water
Best Original Song - This is Me (The Greatest Showmam)
Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name
Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Best Supporting Actor - Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Best Actress - Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Best Actor - Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Best Picture - The Shape of Water


Sun Mar 04, 2018 6:48 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Best Picture
Get Out

Directing
The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Get Out (Written by Jordan Peele)

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Call Me by Your Name (Screenplay by James Ivory)

Actor in a Leading Role
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Actress in a Leading Role
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Actor in a Supporting Role
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Actress in a Supporting Role
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Cinematography
Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)

Editing
Lee Smith (Dunkirk)


Last edited by i.hope on Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:47 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
It’s crazy that we have no idea who is gonna win. Go Dunkirk!!!

I’m gonna stick with Get Out as my prediction though.


Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:48 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Jmart wrote:
Here are my final picks.

1. Best Documentary Short Subject - Heroin(e)
2. Best Documentary Feature - Last Men in Aleppo
3. Best Live Action Short Film - DeKalb Elementary
4. Best Animated Short Film - Dear Basketball
5. Best Foreign Language Film - A Fantastic Woman
6. Best Sound Editing - Dunkirk

7. Best Sound Mixing - Baby Driver
8. Best Makeup - Darkest Hour
9. Best Production Design - The Shape of Water
10. Best Film Editing - Dunkirk
11. Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread

12. Best Visual Effects - War for the Planet of the Apes
13. Best Cinematography - Blade Runner 2049
14. Best Original Screenplay - Get Out
15. Best Animated Feature Film - Coco
16. Best Original Score - The Shape of Water

17. Best Original Song - This is Me (The Greatest Showmam)
18. Best Adapted Screenplay - Call Me By Your Name
19. Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
20. Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
21. Best Actress - Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
22. Best Actor - Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
23. Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
24. Best Picture - The Shape of Water


The Shape of Water - 4
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 2
Dunkirk - 2
Darkest Hour - 2
I, Tonya - 1
Call Me By Your Name - 1
The Greatest Showman - 1
Blade Runner 2049 - 1
Coco (best movie of the year) - 1
Get Out - 1
War for the Planet of the Apes - 1
Phantom Thread - 1
Baby Driver - 1


18 of 24
17 of 20 in the categories people care about

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Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:55 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Who cares about those odd few. For me, you basically flawlessly predicted the Oscars this year.


Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:57 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Thanks. Yeah, this was a rare good year of picking for me. I think getting a sense of the preferential ballot and then looking at where the other nominations went really helped. There's usually at least one dumb curveball thrown in there (like the year Stallone should've won for Creed), but this year was pretty by the book. The only thing that was close to a curveball this year was Jordan Peele winning screenplay, but the only other contender there was Three Billboards, and there was too much backlash there. Get Out was too much of a cultural phenomenon for it to walk away with nothing and this was the easiest award to give it.

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Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:00 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
So Netflix is finishing and releasing Orson Welles lost last film this year. It would be funny if he got nominated for Best Director


Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:29 am
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