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 Oscar Predictions 
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Wallflower
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Post Oscar Predictions
Anyone brave enough to make early predictions?

Here are my predictions for the major categories.

BEST PICTURE

Dunkirk
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
Lady Bird
The Florida Project
Get Out

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

BEST ACTRESS

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Meryl Streep, The Post
Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Kristen Scott Thomas, The Darkest Hour
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

BEST DIRECTOR

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Gullermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
Get Out
The Post
The Shape of Water

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
The Disaster Artist
Mudbound
Last Flag Flying

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Last edited by Magic Mike on Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:15 am, edited 1 time in total.



Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:48 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Best Picture (in order of likelihood)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
The Post
Dunkirk
Lady Bird
Call Me by Your Name
The Shape of Water
Wonder


Sat Nov 25, 2017 2:01 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
I just know that Dunkirk, Lady Bird, Call Me By Your Name and, unless it has mediocre reviews, The Post, are shoo-ins.

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Sat Nov 25, 2017 11:09 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
i.hope wrote:
Best Picture (in order of likelihood)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out


lol, nope.


Sun Nov 26, 2017 12:00 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
It's not a frontrunner but I think Get Out has some chance to win as well.

What I really bet against winning is Dunkirk. In this year and with the PR mess they're dealing with, and contenders including female led or made films (Lady Bird/Three Billboards), a gay film (Call Me By Your Name), race (Get Out), how would SJWs react if this was the movie they gave BP to?

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If you vote against 12 Years A Slave you're a racist = If you vote for Dunkirk over Lady Bird, Get Out and Three Billboards you support the white male patriarchy over females, minorities and homosexuals. Dunkirk is the ANTI Moonlight

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Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:16 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
I'm going to have to wait to give you all the answer for BP this year mainly cause I need to see The Post. There's a chance that ends up being another Lincoln (in which everything seems to be in place for it to win but it just never does) but I do think if that movie meets a minimal level of critical reception, it will win BP.

It's topical, it has Hollywood prestige, and it'll be generating enough buzz.

My current guess is that The Post wins BP and Nolan wins BD.

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Mon Nov 27, 2017 3:50 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Shack wrote:
If you vote against 12 Years A Slave you're a racist = If you vote for Dunkirk over Lady Bird, Get Out and Three Billboards you support the white male patriarchy over females, minorities and homosexuals. Dunkirk is the ANTI Moonlight


It sounds like you read too much Breitbart.

Dunkirk is like a display of British patriotism by a socialist. It is full of helpless little British soldiers yearning to run away and eventually being rescued by civilians. It is a counter-"hero" culture war film. The absence of noble battle scenes (in fact it is about retreating in the face of defeat) and the lack of sentimentality until the ending are not typical of a masculine war film. The film is more likely to tick off right-wing critics than the so-called SJWs as conveniently defined by the reactionary Right.


Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:18 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
These seem like a possible lineup but it is too white and old, something has to give:

Best Picture: The Post
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metclaf, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

McDormand or Janney winning instead of Streep or Metclaf still makes it white/old. I guess Nolan might be weak link. Maybe Guadagnino or Gerwig in his place.

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Tue Nov 28, 2017 5:27 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Streep won't win, will she?

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Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:40 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Shack wrote:
These seem like a possible lineup but it is too white and old, something has to give:

Best Picture: The Post
Best Director: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metclaf, Lady Bird
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

McDormand or Janney winning instead of Streep or Metclaf still makes it white/old. I guess Nolan might be weak link. Maybe Guadagnino or Gerwig in his place.


Because Guadagnino is black and young. ;)


Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:25 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Streep won't win, will she?


I hope not. I'd love to see Ronan win personally. I won't bet on it but she does seem to be gaining traction. I'm even more positive Gerwig is getting in than when I posted my prediction of her.

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Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:51 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
I think Gerwig is a lock for Director nominee. But voters will likely favor Nolan as a consolation prize to him to correct the injustice of snubbing him for years, like they did for Scorsese (The Departed) and DiCaprio (The Revenant).

Best Director (in order of likelihood)
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Steven Spielberg, The Post

(two out of three?)
Gullermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name


Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:16 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
After seeing the trailer I'm pretty low on Shape of Water's chances and can see Hawkins snubbed. I know Del Toro has his fans pushing it but it's clearly going to be one of the most weirdest films of the year which usually alienate AMPAs. Maybe it's the type of film that gets lone director nod.

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Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:17 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Not sure about Picture but I'm gonna say Jordan Peele wins Best Director. I forgot that both 12 Years A Slave and Moonlight lost Best Director. Plus it's really hard to figure out how a black person wins an acting award this year, they would have to reach for Mary J. Blige or something, so first black Best Director win is how they fill that quota.

Also in the slim chance that no black actors get nominated, Get Out is a lock to win Best Picture and Best Director, it would be racial Argo

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Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:54 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
I am not so sure, I think it getting nominations would already considered as enough victories for everyone.


Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:28 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
If black people got noms in every category and won none or just a few, they'll play their favourite role ... the victim.


Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:44 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Christopher Nolan will probably get the sympathy vote this year.


Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:56 am
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Only a few weeks away:

Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out - winner
Ladybird
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards

Director: Greta Gerwig
Actor: James Franco
Actress: Saoirse Ronan
Suppt act: Willem Dafoe
Suppt actress: Mary J Blige
Cinematography: Dunkirk
Editing: Dunkirk
Orig screenplay: Get Out
Adapt screenplay: Call Me By Your Name
Score: Dunkirk
Art Direction: The Shape of Water
All sound and effects: Dunkirk


Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:03 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
I loved Lady Bird and Gerwig, but feel like it would be such a joke for her to be nominated for let alone win Best Director. There is seriously nothing impressive about her directing job. Edgar Wright for Baby Driver would be a much better nominee than her but he's being overlooked. Now if a woman directed Baby Driver it would win Best Director. That's really the only reason she's going to be nominated for Lady Bird and it would be the only reason she'd win. Obviously I'm hoping Guadagnino gets in for Director but I doubt it happens.

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Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:19 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Nolan losing is gonna hurt, but the narrative has already been written for Gerwig.

I also disagree that she didn’t do anything special. Ladybird could have easily become an obnoxious movie and never did. She filled her glass to the very top, which is very impressive.


Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:07 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
I loved Lady Bird and Gerwig, but feel like it would be such a joke for her to be nominated for let alone win Best Director. There is seriously nothing impressive about her directing job. Edgar Wright for Baby Driver would be a much better nominee than her but he's being overlooked. Now if a woman directed Baby Driver it would win Best Director. That's really the only reason she's going to be nominated for Lady Bird and it would be the only reason she'd win. Obviously I'm hoping Guadagnino gets in for Director but I doubt it happens.


Isn't Baby Driver too gimmicky and action-oriented for Director or Picture? A female director would not have helped much.


Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:13 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Nolan losing is gonna hurt, but the narrative has already been written for Gerwig.


I disagree. I think Nolan is still the favorite to win Director. The voters are going to compensate him for the snubs (TDK, Inception, Interstellar). And Dunkirk is considered less commercial than his other recent blockbusters, thus a likely awards contender.

Guillermo del Toro is in a similar situation to Nolan. But he and his films are less mainstream.

Gerwig is considered a newcomer and more a writer-director (writer first, director second). I don't think she will win but she is a strong contender in a rather weak year.


Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:24 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
i.hope wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
I loved Lady Bird and Gerwig, but feel like it would be such a joke for her to be nominated for let alone win Best Director. There is seriously nothing impressive about her directing job. Edgar Wright for Baby Driver would be a much better nominee than her but he's being overlooked. Now if a woman directed Baby Driver it would win Best Director. That's really the only reason she's going to be nominated for Lady Bird and it would be the only reason she'd win. Obviously I'm hoping Guadagnino gets in for Director but I doubt it happens.


Isn't Baby Driver too gimmicky and action-oriented for Director or Picture? A female director would not have helped much.


I really don't think so. Believe me, had a female director been behind the film it would be getting a lot more attention this year.

Anyway, I still think Gerwig isn't winning Director anyway. It's going to be Nolan.

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Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:05 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Yeah I feel Dunkirk will pull a Gravity and win BD and a bunch of other tech awards, but won’t win BP.

GDT is probably Nolan’s biggest obstacle.

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Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:42 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
The case for Get Out and Lady Bird is strong but I could still see the race going back to Three Billboards. For whatever reason it didn't do as well in the critics awards as expected but that can turn. I remember when Argo felt like it was losing to Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln for a bit. Three Billboards is not a bad hedge between being PC enough but being in in line with awards history a little more than Get Out or Lady Bird BP wins

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Wed Jan 03, 2018 2:09 pm
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