It seems a Jennifer Lawrence will get a nomination for mother! and would have a chance to win if it weren't going to bomb so hard and be forgotten by the Oscars. Though the nomination seems like a solid bet.

I'm rooting for everybody white!

I'm not even sure about Lawrence getting nominated for mother!. She might be able to score a Globe nomination though but I don't know if the film will be the Academy's cup of tea, even if she's probably really deserving.

I think McDormand is winning this. Bening will be nominated too. Possibly Saoirse Ronan for Lady Bird too. Chastain should score one for Molly's Game.

Mother seems too weird and divisive for Oscars

McDormand is the frontrunner. The Allen backlash will probably be too strong for Winslet to win, SJWs have multiplied exponentially since Blue Jasmine in 2013. I thought Robbie in I, Tonya might have a chance but I never like it when a film has a director with a mediocre history (He made stuff like The Finest Hours and Million Dollar Arm)

Wow I didn't realize how many I was forgetting.

My predictions:




Would love to see Jessica Chastain bump Streep out.

Emma is stupendous in Battle of the Sexes. If she hadn't won last year I'd say she would far and away be the frontrunner.

She certainly is an actress' actress. Love her. Think she is brilliant and very talented. I hope she can win back-to-back, but yeah, that doesn't seem to happen much anymore (unless you're Julia Louis-Dreyfus).

Here comes Winslet in Wonder Wheel.

Robbie will get a nomination, although it'd have to be a pretty weak year for her to win. She's very good but I don't particularly think it's a win worthy performance.

From the trailer McDormand seems like such a big dominating performance, I really like her here

The only challenger for McDormand right now IMO is Daniela Vega. I could see her winning because it would be a statement.

You want to make a statement? Give it to Rose McGowan then.
When awards are given for statements rather than for honoring the supposed best they are no more worth than a toilet brush.

I'm sure the performance is actually terrific though so it wouldn't be a win for that alone. It will just help.

I have a feeling Margot is going to win this. Hollywood has been pushing her hard as the new big star.

I still think McDormand but Robbie has become the biggest threat.

McDormand
Ronan
Streep

These seem like the best bets.

Surprised Saoirse Ronan has only come up once here. I definitely think she's got a shot.

Before your post there was only other post made in this thread since Lady Bird was released.

Saoirse Ronan the Accuser wins or we riot.

Saoirse just got a nod for Brooklyn? Her youth + 2 past noms + winless + majority of critics will win.

Mcdormand-past winner
Creep-past winner
Hawkins-too quirky to win
Robbie-nomination is her win

I don't think Shape of Water is a lock in any major category, could be too weird to get traction