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 Contenders 2017 
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Wallflower
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Post Contenders 2017
Premature but I'm already excited to think about next year's awards season.

Indie Wire's very early Oscar Predictions: http://www.indiewire.com/2017/03/oscar- ... 201789008/

BEST PICTURE

Quote:
Frontrunners

“The Big Sick”
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Logan”
“Mudbound”

Contenders:

“The Aftermath”
“Annihilation”
“Battle of the Sexes”
“The Beguiled”
“The Current War”
“Darkest Hour”
“Downsizing”
“Dunkirk”
“The Glass Castle”
“Mary Magdalene”
“Mother!”
“Untitled A.A. Milne”
“Untitled Detroit Project”
“Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson”
“Wonder Wheel”
“Wonderstruck”


BEST DIRECTOR

Quote:
Frontrunners

Luca Guadagnino (“Call Me By Your Name”)
James Mangold (“Logan”)
Jordan Peele (“Get Out”)
Dee Rees (“Mudbound”)
Michael Showalter (“The Big Sick”)

Contenders

Woody Allen (“Wonder Wheel”)
Paul Thomas Anderson (“Untitled PTA”)
Darren Aronofsky (“Mother!”)
Kathryn Bigelow (“Untitled Detroit Project”)
Sofia Coppola (“The Beguiled”)
Destin Daniel Cretton (“The Glass Castle”)
Garth Davis (“Mary Magdalene”)
Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris (“Battle of the Sexes”)
Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”)
Alex Garland (“Annihilation”)
Michael Haneke (“Happy End”)
Todd Haynes (“Wonderstruck”)
James Kent (“The Aftermath”)
Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”)
Alexander Payne (“Downsizing”)
Roman Polanski (“Based on a True Story”)
Aaron Sorkin (“Molly’s Game”)
Colin Trevorrow (“The Book of Henry”)
Joe Wright (“Darkest Hour”)


BEST ACTOR

Quote:
Frontrunners:

Timothée Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”)
Jason Clarke (“Mudbound”)
Sam Elliott (“The Hero”)
Armie Hammer (“Call Me By Your Name”)
Kumail Nanjiani (“The Big Sick”)

Contenders:

Chadwick Boseman (“Marshall”)
John Boyega (“Untitled Detroit Project”)
Steve Carell (“Battle of the Sexes”)
Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Current War”)
Matt Damon (“Downsizing”)
Idris Elba (“The Mountain Between Us”)
Colin Farrell (“The Beguiled”)
Michael Fassbender (“The Snowman”)
Richard Gere (“Norman: The Moderate Rise and Fall of a Fixer”)
Domnhall Gleeson (“Untitled A.A. Milne”)
Hugh Jackman (“Logan,” “The Greatest Showman”)
Daniel Day Lewis (“Untitled PTA”)
Joaquin Phoenix (“Mary Magdalene”)
Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)


BEST ACTRESS

Quote:
Frontrunners

Danielle MacDonald (“Patti Cake$”)
Carey Mulligan (“Mudbound”)

Contenders

Annette Bening (“Film Stars Don’t Die In Liverpool”)
Jessica Chastain (“Molly’s Game”)
Eva Green (“Based on a True Story”)
Sally Hawkins (“The Shape Of Water”)
Isabelle Huppert (“Happy End”)
Nicole Kidman (“The Beguiled”)
Keira Knightley (“The Aftermath”)
Brie Larson (“The Glass Castle”)
Florence Pugh (“Lady Macbeth”)
Rooney Mara (“Mary Magdalene”)
Natalie Portman (“Annihilation”)
Emma Stone (“Battle of The Sexes”)
Daniela Vega (“A Fantastic Woman”)
Katherine Waterston (“The Current War”)
Naomi Watts (“The Book of Henry”)
Rachel Weisz (“My Cousin Rachel”)
Michelle Williams (“Wonderstruck”)
Kristen Wiig (“Downsizing”)
Kate Winslet (‘The Mountain Between Us,” “Wonder Wheel”)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Quote:
Frontrunners:

Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”)
Holly Hunter (“The Big Sick”)
Melissa Leo (“Novitiate”)
Cathy Moriarty (“PattiCake$”)

Contenders:

Kirsten Dunst (“The Beguiled”)
Lesley Manville (“Untitled PTA”)
Julianne Moore (“Wonderstruck”)
Michelle Pfeiffer (“Mother!”)
Kristin Scott Thomas (“The Darkest Hour”)
Naomi Watts (“The Glass Castle”)
Michelle Williams (“The Greatest Showman”)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Quote:
Frontrunners

Garrett Hedlund (“Mudbound”)
Jason Mitchell (“Mudbound”)
Ray Romano (“The Big Sick”)
Patrick Stewart (“Logan”)
Michel Stuhlbarg (“Call Me By Your Name”)

Contenders

Sterling K. Brown (“Marshall”)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (“Mary Magdalene”)
Woody Harrelson (“The Glass Castle”)
Ed Harris (“Mother!”)
John Hurt (“Darkest Hour”)
Kevin Kline (“Beauty and the Beast”)
Ben Mendelsohn (“Darkest Hour”)
Michael Shannon (“The Current War”)
Christoph Waltz (“Downsizing”)



I really doubt Logan gets much. Maybe Best Picture, but it's not getting into Best Director. But the writer of the article did say nothing will be deemed a front-runner until they've seen it so I imagine they have a rather small sampling so far. I don't know how much Call Me By Your Name will end up with but I would right now be willing to bet a nomination for Michel Stuhlbarg does indeed happen based on everything I've heard.

I think Emma Stone will be nominated for Battle of the Sexes and Chastain for Molly's Game.


Other early predictions:

http://www.zimbio.com/Ridiculously+Earl ... e+Nominees

Quote:
Best Picture Nominees

Predicted Top 10 Contenders:

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Kidnapping of Edgardo Mortara
Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi
Untitled P.T. Anderson Movie
Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Movie
Victoria and Abdul
Wonderstruck

Other contenders: The Snowman, Mother!, Suburbicon, Annihilation, Submergence, Song to Song, Hostiles, Mary Magdalene, The Killing of a Sacred Deer


https://theplaylist.net/premature-oscar ... cb-content

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/ ... 018-979054


Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:30 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Carey Mulligan and Jason Clarke have zero shot at nominations for Mudbound. Both are fine but mostly underused, and Mulligan's arc goes nowhere. The best performance in that film is from Jason Mitchell, who should be nominated, and Garrett Hedlund is great too. They're the core relationship of the movie.

Mary J. Blige I could see them nominating just because it's a singer outside of her comfort zone but while decent I was far from blown away by her performance.

That being said, this is all being said under the assumption Netflix actually mounts a real campaign for it and isn't shut out with their big swings like in previous years.


Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:42 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
A couple of these seem very random too. Based on the script The Book of Henry has no shot at anything.


Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:43 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Going with one of PTA, Nolan or Payne having their year

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Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:43 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Mudbound might do well. If it were Weinstein I'd say it would get quite a few nominations. Netflix is the only thing that gives me pause.

DDL will obviously be nominated this year. He's always a sure bet and in this role I can't see it not happening.

Another pretty sure bet is Michelle Williams for Supporting Actress for Greatest Showman. She's almost always nominated (deservedly so). Looking forward to seeing her in a musical.


Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:12 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Mudbound is like not really mainstream accessible at all. I'm surprised there was such a frenzy over it at Sundance.


Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:19 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Birdman won in 2015. Spotlight won in 2016. Moonlight won this year. Dunkirk has a good shot to complete the "BDSM Oscar Winners".

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Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:18 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
I wonder if The Big Sick will get traction

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Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:28 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Maybe with the critics' awards but I cannot see it getting recognised by the Oscars.

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Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:00 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Baby Driver drives into consideration

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Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:43 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Haha, not a chance.

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Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:36 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Get Out I think will be in consideration. At least screenplay if not anything else.


Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:58 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
I don't see it. Detroit will take the black votes.

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Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:10 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Darth Indiana Bond wrote:
Baby Driver drives into consideration


If it doesn't get a ton of technical nominations at least I'll be pissed. They can't deny it those things. Should get nominated.


Fri Jun 30, 2017 10:13 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
The only categories I could remotely see Baby Driver showing up in are the ones for sound.

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Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:08 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
And editing

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Mon Jul 03, 2017 2:41 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Shack wrote:
Going with one of PTA, Nolan or Payne having their year


Yea, I'm still going with this either being the Nolan or PTA gets rewarded year, between Dunkirk's reviews and DDL's last movie

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Mon Jul 17, 2017 4:58 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
I didn't even know about that film...but yeah, sounds like a shoe-in.


Tue Jul 18, 2017 12:54 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
It's toooooooooooooooooooo much of an Oscar film. I bet it gets ignored ala The Founder, A United Kingdom, Gold, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, The Birth of a Nation, Miss Sloane and Live By Night and those are all from last year.

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Tue Jul 18, 2017 3:33 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Predictions Friday – Narrowing it Down with the Oscar Squad
( http://www.awardsdaily.com/2017/09/22/p ... car-squad/ )


Sun Sep 24, 2017 11:57 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Blade Runner!

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Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:10 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
I think they'll push 2049 more for the tech awards and Dunkirk more for Director, Editing, Screenplay-type awards, maybe even Best Picture.

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Tue Oct 03, 2017 10:01 pm
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
I feel like 2049 bombing will hurt its Oscar chances. With Dunkirk in the mix they'll only have the patience for one big budget spectacle serious awards contender.

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Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:55 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
It has an up hill climb. Sci fi, sequel, cold are all things that haven't gone well with academy

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Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:26 am
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Post Re: Contenders 2017
Looks like Sam Rockwell and Willem Dafoe are in good position for Best Supporting Actor. The Florida Project has 94 on MC and 12 100s, maybe the film will be more of a critics thing than academy if it's just following them walking around in a natural style like Tangerine, but it looks like Dafoe has the emotionally resonant veteran role that they tend to eat up. Rockwell's performance in Three Billboards looks comedic from the trailer but he is being predicted in a lot of places right now

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Sun Oct 08, 2017 2:37 am
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