This category is always weird...

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Maybe a wildcard like Jonah Hill in WOWS could break in but idk. Whoever's supporting in Silence?

Awardswatch posters seem to think Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins is a thing

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Liam Neeson, Silence
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Any chance of John Goodman? He could be this years Stallone/Murphy/Keaton.

Could Bridges actually win his second Oscar? Seems more and more likely.

Would be totally deserved. Great performance.

I suspect Ali will win.

It seems like a good place to reward Moonlight since I'm not sure it would be able to win any other Oscars.

It only helps his profile that this dude has been all over the place recently: he has a role in Hidden Figures, he's a Luke Cage cast member, was on House of Cards, etc.

Pretty cool Ali looks poised to be a frontrunner but it sucks none of the actors playing Chiron will get recognition, though it may win Ensemble at SAG.

Aside from Ali this category is a bit all over the place with Ben Foster, Jeff Bridges, Michael Shannon, Lucas Hedges, Liam Neeson (or some Japanese actor from Silence), Dev Patel all in the running, but none of them safe.

I'll be happy to see Ben Foster get a nomination

For Inferno or Warcraft?

Not sure if you're serious or not...but Ben Foster is in Hell or High Water.

Yeah, wasn't serious there, but that's all I saw him in so far, oh and The Program, which he was actually good in I thought. And he was also in the Finest Hours which I didn't see, so he was pretty much everywhere. I hear good things about Hell or High Water so I plan to give it a look. Foster really seems to be hit and miss with every other role.

Could Hugh Grant be on his way to his first Oscar nom?

Seems like Ali and Bridges are the only ones who I'm certain will get in here.

Dev Patel is getting all the pre-cursors but who knows with the Academy. Lucas Hedges could miss like Shailene Woodley did with the Descendents but Manchester's strength in the race seems like he'll get in. And then there's Hugh Grant and Shannon/Taylor-Johnson from Nocturnal Animals...

To be fair, The Descendants was just as strong if not stronger in the race. In fact 2011 also had three films way ahead of the rest.

Don't forget Ben Foster.

I think Nocturnal Animals will bomb with the Academy.

definitely my favorite supporting actor performance of the year so far

I'm predicting:

Mahershala Ali
Jeff Bridges
Ben Foster
Hugh Grant
Lucas Hedges

Basically SAG lineup with Foster instead of Dev Patel. Although I suppose Lucas Hedges could pull a Shailene Woodley and be snubbed.

Patel won the BAFTA, he has a chance now

Of course he won the BAFTA, he's British.

A lot of Brits are members of the Academy too. I don't see two supporting actor noms from Hell or High Water. Most will choose Bridges as the rep from that film and be done with it. Patel is getting in. But...why isn't Patel lead? I haven't seen the film but he is top-billed and his face graces every poster..

Because Oscars

He's not in the first half (maybe closer to 40%, don't know the exact split, around the same amount of time that Room is in the room) which is centered on the kid version of him so it's a convenient excuse to put him in the easier category. Also I think Algren doesn't know the Oscars nominations came out already

lol