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 SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation 
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Well this certainly makes the race more interesting.


Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:10 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Magic Mike wrote:
I'm all about Winona's faces right now. So hilarious.

I hope Denzel doesn't get the Oscar. Ugh. Great performance but if he's going to win it should be for a movie that's not a big POS. Casey should win.

Very interesting Hidden Figures won. Maybe La La Land will lose momentum and it will win Best Picture :P.

Hidden Figures would probably win Best Ensemble if the Oscars had that category. But as it stands, Moonlight, Manchester and maybe even Arrival will take it from La La Land first.

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Mon Jan 30, 2017 9:00 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Well this certainly makes the race more interesting.


The Best Picture race? If anything, all this did was seal La La Land's Oscar win up even more since Moonlight and Manchester couldn't even win at SAG.


Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:48 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
We are living in an unprecedented time, and I wouldn't rule out voters rallying around certain nominees to make a statement. I definitely think Denzel is now the frontrunner for Actor, although it remains to be seen whether this type of rally can go all the way up to affect the BP race. We can throw a lot of rules out of the window at this point given how fast the external environment is moving.


Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:16 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Yes the we are going through some dramatic changes, it does not feel like a peaceful time right now

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Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:30 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
I've felt for awhile that Hidden Figures is the one most likely to Crash the oscars this year. La La Land is too strong a contender to ignore for a political statement though. But hey, if they collude before the voting, we could end up with all black acting winners, the director of Moonlight and Hidden Figures as BP. Take that Trump!


Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:44 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Unprecedented or not, Hidden Figures is not winning without an Editing and a Directing nom.

Also, what else do you expect it to win? Or just the Best Picture Oscar? Because it sure as hell is not winning Supporting Actress or Screenplay.

If there is a statement to be made, then obviously with Moonlight.

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Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:19 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Libs wrote:
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Well this certainly makes the race more interesting.


The Best Picture race? If anything, all this did was seal La La Land's Oscar win up even more since Moonlight and Manchester couldn't even win at SAG.


I meant more with the Best Actor race, especially with the controversy with Casey Affleck.


Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:43 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
That's a toss-up, yes. Manchester is definitely getting rewarded in some way, but I guess it might be just the screenplay.

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Mon Jan 30, 2017 6:45 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Hidden Figures definitely jumped ahead of Moonlight for #2 with the SAG and strong box office. Hidden Figures likely could've won last year, but La La Land is too strong a juggernaut to dethrone this year.

I'd rank both Denzel and Gosling over Affleck currently, with Washington the clear front runner. Affleck is not very popular in Hollywood especially with his sexual harassment scandal, so it doesn't matter the critics have been voting for him if he doesn't have the respect of his peers.


Tue Jan 31, 2017 3:37 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
I'm kinda loving the idea of Casey having the rug pulled out from under him like this.


Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:55 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Agree that Moonlight is still the more likely, it has far more precursor support and if you're going to make the statement you may as well be adding in the gay factor too. But it seems about as likely at this point as Ruth Negga winning for the African-American sweep

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Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:31 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
I don't recall such a shift in momentum since Million Dollar Baby. I think Hidden Figures has a serious chance here. Moonlight as a dark horse at this point as it just hasn't captured the public's imagination like Hidden Figures has.

La La Land already feels like its kind of drifting into the background despite all its nominations. It's kind of having the quietest post Oscar run for such a "frontrunner." The public likes it. But they seem to LOVE Hidden Figures. It's release date, message, and box office are making it hard to deny just how much the best picture race has changed in just a month.


Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:10 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

What shift in momentum?

Million Dollar Baby won the Golden Globe for Directing, won the DGA... Hidden Figures hasn't even been nominated for either.

It has three Oscar noms, less than ANY other BP nominee this year. Do you expect it to win the Best Picture Oscar and nothing else? Because it is sure as fuck not winning Screenplay or Supporting Actress?

Hidden Figures is not even in the Top 3. Without an Editing and a Directing nom, do you know what its chances are? It is this year's The Help. That's all.

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Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:18 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Dr. Lecter wrote:
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

What shift in momentum?

Million Dollar Baby won the Golden Globe for Directing, won the DGA... Hidden Figures hasn't even been nominated for either.

It has three Oscar noms, less than ANY other BP nominee this year. Do you expect it to win the Best Picture Oscar and nothing else? Because it is sure as fuck not winning Screenplay or Supporting Actress?

Hidden Figures is not even in the Top 3. Without an Editing and a Directing nom, do you know what its chances are? It is this year's The Help. That's all.


I more meant shift in momentum from what were expected to be the contenders that fall. Million Dollar Baby wasn't even really in the conversation and just popped up very quickly. Similar to Hidden Figures. Barely a mention of it going into the fall.

I definitely think Hidden Figures is becoming much, much more influential here right now than The Help. There's a big shift going on and its definitely not just at "The Help" level. I probably won't be able to convince you but Hidden Figures definitely seems like its resonating at a level beyond anyone's wildest expectations.


Sun Feb 05, 2017 2:58 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
It's probably resonating with the public more than La La Land, but the general public doesn't vote on Oscars. Otherwise Avatar would have won. Hidden Fingers just doesn't have the pedigree or critical support. La La's still gonna steamroll.

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Sun Feb 05, 2017 10:29 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
O wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

What shift in momentum?

Million Dollar Baby won the Golden Globe for Directing, won the DGA... Hidden Figures hasn't even been nominated for either.

It has three Oscar noms, less than ANY other BP nominee this year. Do you expect it to win the Best Picture Oscar and nothing else? Because it is sure as fuck not winning Screenplay or Supporting Actress?

Hidden Figures is not even in the Top 3. Without an Editing and a Directing nom, do you know what its chances are? It is this year's The Help. That's all.


I more meant shift in momentum from what were expected to be the contenders that fall. Million Dollar Baby wasn't even really in the conversation and just popped up very quickly. Similar to Hidden Figures. Barely a mention of it going into the fall.

I definitely think Hidden Figures is becoming much, much more influential here right now than The Help. There's a big shift going on and its definitely not just at "The Help" level. I probably won't be able to convince you but Hidden Figures definitely seems like its resonating at a level beyond anyone's wildest expectations.


You won't be able to convince me because there is nothing to back up your theory with. Its box-office is on the same level as The Help's, even though The Help did not have the Oscars to boost its run. It has only three Oscar noms. No Directing or Editing noms. Do you knw hw many decades you have to go back to find a winner without these two noms? La La Land is sweeping everything right now. Record Golden Globe wins, record Oscar noms, PGA win, DGA win and TREMENDOUS box-office as well.

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Sun Feb 05, 2017 11:18 am
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
In the fantasy scenario where Hidden Figures wins BP, it will also win Best Adapted Screenplay. For Oscar win likelihood, I would rank it: 1 Best Adapted Screenplay, 2 Best Picture, 3 Best Supporting Actress.

Note I just looked up that the screenwriters for Hidden Figures are white, so if the voters are aware of that that may influence against their vote.

I would say a BP win probability is 10% given Crash precedence, versus 0% for moonlight and all other Non-LLL nominees. Prerty much Hidden Figures needs Donald Trump to publicly praise La La Land for it to have a shot, as that would be the only reason I could see Holywood industry voting against LLL if their mindset is they can't possibly support anything Trump supports.

I also don't get the sense that African-Americans will necessarily see LLL as an anti-black movie to rally against like last year's BP slate, They are portrayed in LLL as positions of authority who make successful decisions, i.e. John Legend being Seb's boss and creating a successful band and the casting director that personally discovers Mia and offers her big break; meanwhile the white casting directors and Seb's white bosses are shown as unreasonable and disrespectful people. Not to mention Seb's musical heroes, brother-in-law and their family, bandmates, and hired jazz performers are all mostly black as well.


Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:35 pm
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Post Re: SAG Awards 2016 Anticipation
Dr. Lecter wrote:
O wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

What shift in momentum?

Million Dollar Baby won the Golden Globe for Directing, won the DGA... Hidden Figures hasn't even been nominated for either.

It has three Oscar noms, less than ANY other BP nominee this year. Do you expect it to win the Best Picture Oscar and nothing else? Because it is sure as fuck not winning Screenplay or Supporting Actress?

Hidden Figures is not even in the Top 3. Without an Editing and a Directing nom, do you know what its chances are? It is this year's The Help. That's all.


I more meant shift in momentum from what were expected to be the contenders that fall. Million Dollar Baby wasn't even really in the conversation and just popped up very quickly. Similar to Hidden Figures. Barely a mention of it going into the fall.

I definitely think Hidden Figures is becoming much, much more influential here right now than The Help. There's a big shift going on and its definitely not just at "The Help" level. I probably won't be able to convince you but Hidden Figures definitely seems like its resonating at a level beyond anyone's wildest expectations.


You won't be able to convince me because there is nothing to back up your theory with. Its box-office is on the same level as The Help's, even though The Help did not have the Oscars to boost its run. It has only three Oscar noms. No Directing or Editing noms. Do you knw hw many decades you have to go back to find a winner without these two noms? La La Land is sweeping everything right now. Record Golden Globe wins, record Oscar noms, PGA win, DGA win and TREMENDOUS box-office as well.


Ok, thank you for making your point. :thumbsup:


Sun Feb 05, 2017 3:50 pm
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