I'm not sure if I'm the only Oscar nerd already tracking 2016 films but this year seems really lacking in marquee films. By my count

Hail Caesar! (Coen Brothers + 1950's musical dramedy)
BFG (Spielberg + Roald Dahl)
Money Monster (Jodie Foster + George Clooney + Julia Roberts)
Sully (Eastwood + Hanks)
Deepwater Horizon (Peter Berg + Worst Oil Spill in American History)
The Accountant (Affleck + Assassins)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee + Iraq War)
The Founder (Michael Keaton + McDonalds Biopic)
Passengers (SciFi + CPratt + JLaw)
Silence (Scorsese + Jesuit Priests)
Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford + Big Actors)
Indignation (James Schamus + Philip Roth + Race + Sexuality)
Genius (Big Actors + Literary Prestige)
Untitled WWII Drama (Zemeckis + Nazis)
Florence Foster Jenkins (Annual Meryl + Frears)
The Great Wall (CHINA!)
The Light Between Oceans (Vikander + Fassbender + Drama)
Loving (Interracial Stuffs)
Tulip Fever (Vikander + 1600 Art)
Hacksaw Ridge (WWII + Mel Gibson)
Untitled Richard Pryor Biopic (Lee Daniels + Big Actors)

None of these films scream Oscar Winner to me and normally by the start of a given year, you have a pretty good grasp on real contenders just based on director prestige, anticipated award season narratives, subject matter, actors, etc.

I guess Spielberg could sneak in his Jennifer Lawrence project It's What I Do by years end. Otherwise, we're in store for some interesting under the radar, film festival winner, type of contenders.

Spielberg is doing Ready Player One next. I very much doubt he will finish another film before the end of 2016.

Silence will be a strong contender and Scorsese will definitely win a second Oscar some time soon. Maybe for that...

He's only done it four or five times before. And with his new deal in place he may have extra incentive to double up. I'm not predicting it will happen but it's feasible considering how quickly he shoots and gets stuff into post.

Otherwise, Scorsese is the only name in the race. But Silence sounds insufferable and more like a vanity project than an actual winner.

But he hasn't even started on Ready Player One yet and that is supposed to be his next project.

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk sounds like it has the pedigree and will be mainstream enough and something critics will go for. Offcourse early to tell.

I doubt The Beard will get Its what I do out this year - though it wouldnt shock me. Ready Player One is scheduled for Dec 2017 and he'll commence filming in Spring/Summer I assume. So its doubtful.

The Best Pic winner will be something not on that list.

The contenders are never known so early.

I'm hard pressed to think of a single year that at least 75% of the contenders weren't known by January. This time last year the only major film I didn't see happening was Mad Max.

I suppose it depends if you're looking specifically for awards contenders in January. For me, I only hear about the awards contenders around October. I don't think I knew of Spotlight in, say, July.

Your original statement was "The contenders are never known so early," which if you're a casual observer of award season (which seems to the case) would be true. But otherwise, it's absolute rubbish.

Anyone who follows these things year in and year out with half a brain would easily be able to correctly predict a vast majority of nominees, on paper at least. The trick is when films like Joy, The Danish Girl, and The Hateful Eight pop up on January lists and ultimately fail to connect in the Fall/Winter. But that's part of the fun.

Batman V Superman

loyal interacting with algren is one of my favourite new things

Yes, you're right. I've never really cared for who wins what award. It has no bearing on quality, and for me, as a film lover, that is what's most important.

And that's how we should all ideally view films. Some of my favourite films of all-time didn't get nominated for Best Picture. That said, this is "Countdown To The Oscars" so everything posted here is viewed through that prism. If you don't care about who wins what, this is probably the last place you should be posting on WoKJ.

For example, I'm not a sports fan so I avoid those threads because A) I don't find any of it interesting and B) I can't really add anything intelligent or substantial to the discussion because of my lack of knowledge.

That's not your concern.

Grand Budapest Hotel 2.0?

Just in terms of potential contenders on paper, I believe you can add:

Florence Foster Jenkins
The Great Wall
The Light Between Oceans
Loving
Tulip Fever (although this has the sound of a 1990s-style Oscar play, the type of which often engenders cynicism today, as experienced to a degree by The Danish Girl this year)
The Zookeeper's Wife

If I were forced to bet cash today on the winner, I would opt for Silence or Loving.

I hae a good feeling about The Light Between Oceans. It stars Fassbender, ikander and Rachel Weisz and it is directed by Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines), who is just waiting for a breakthrough to happen to him.

Reads like a total Oscar show for Fassbender and Vikander.

I wonder if Alexander Payne can finish Downsizing in time.

I'd say most of the eventual nominees aren't on people's radar yet.

They're on Loyal's radar. He knows everything there is to know about awards. He could even tell you 2018's winners.

I don't know about 2018 but I could probably take some reasonable guesses about 2017 after a fair amount of research.

It's not magic or rocket science. I know you don't follow the award season so it must seem clairvoyant in seem respects, being able to guess nominees a year out. But here's a handy print out for your desk to help answer those nagging questions and make you a more informed tourist for award season and the Countdown To The Oscars sub-forum.

I skimmed through lesson one. Already knew it. What's coming up in lesson two?

Check back in 12 months. We'll see if you're asking the same questions over and over again next season.

they gonna have sex on screen eh?

he will be, because how could we movie experts who have been following and researching films for 10+ years know anything of value