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2012 Contenders Discussion
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=16&t=65952
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Author:  David [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

I honestly believe they might have nominated Foxx as a supporting actor for Collateral even if Ray didn't exist. Similar to Casey Affleck's supporting nomination for Jesse James. The Academy is willing to call you supporting if you're opposite a huge international star, even if the percentage screen time split is 60-40 your favor.

Author:  Magic Mike [ Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

publicenemy#1 wrote:
I feel like Great Gatsby won't be a big contender.


Ditto. Maybe some technical nods but that's all.

Author:  David [ Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

A December release hasn't won Best Picture since 2004. I'm not sure the whole, "Wait until December to release prestige pic and let the mystery/hype build to a fever pitch" angle is effective anymore. I believe Weinstein has the right idea with those late-November launches he gave The King's Speech and The Artist. More time for the art-house old farts to see your movie ;) and for grassroots W.O.M. to spread.

Author:  MadGez [ Thu Mar 08, 2012 4:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

That's true December is a little too late these days. Influential year end lists come out in early December and it doesn't givers acad members enough time.

BTW - looks like The Master may come out in October.

Author:  Magic Mike [ Fri Mar 09, 2012 1:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

David wrote:
A December release hasn't won Best Picture since 2004. I'm not sure the whole, "Wait until December to release prestige pic and let the mystery/hype build to a fever pitch" angle is effective anymore. I believe Weinstein has the right idea with those late-November launches he gave The King's Speech and The Artist. More time for the art-house old farts to see your movie ;) and for grassroots W.O.M. to spread.


Thanksgiving week is a great time to release your Oscar contender.

Author:  David [ Wed Jun 20, 2012 2:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

Best Actor seems very strong this year. Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln, of course. Leonardo DiCaprio in The Great Gatsby. John Hawkes in The Sessions. Hugh Jackman in Les Misérables. Bill Murray in Hyde Park on Hudson. Joaquin Phoenix in The Master.

I almost can't see Day-Lewis winning. It's too soon after There Will Be Blood. He's a titan and a living legend, yes, but a third win so soon? His female equivalent, Streep, waited nearly thirty years for a third win. Also, has anyone ever won an acting Oscar for a Spielberg film?

I predict it will come down to Murray and Phoenix.

Author:  David [ Wed Jun 20, 2012 6:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

http://www.worldofkj.com/article.php?i=757

Author:  Libs [ Wed Jun 20, 2012 11:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

I sincerely hope Moonrise Kingdom is remembered at the end of the year. Think it might be a toss up between that and Beasts of the Southern Wild for the "hit summer indie" Best Picture slot.

Author:  Jonathan [ Thu Jun 21, 2012 12:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

Libs wrote:
I sincerely hope Moonrise Kingdom is remembered at the end of the year. Think it might be a toss up between that and Beasts of the Southern Wild for the "hit summer indie" Best Picture slot.


I'm actually predicting both to make it in right now. It can be like a lower-key scenario from last year of a breakout art house comedy (Midnight in Paris/Moonrise) and a heavier, more emotional drama with a passionate following (Tree of Life/Beasts) both making the Picture line-up. Moonrise being Anderson's biggest success in a while will help it, and having seen Beasts I definitely think it can rally up enough passion to get the needed #1 votes.

Author:  David [ Thu Jun 21, 2012 2:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

I would love to predict a Best Picture nomination for Moonrise Kingdom, but I can't see it happening. The Midnight in Paris comparison is tempting (Moonrise is a far superior film even), but also seems flawed because Wes Anderson films have received a grand total of three Oscar nominations, whereas Woody Allen is an Oscar fixture (despite rarely attending).

Midnight in Paris also played gangbusters with older audiences, whereas Moonrise Kingdom' core fan base is much younger.

The obligatory screenplay nomination for a quirky, well-received film (Memento, The Royal Tenenbaums, American Splendor, Y tu mamá también, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, The Squid and the Whale, Lars and the Real Girl) should be in the cards, though. The writing branches are always more adventurous.

Author:  MovieDude [ Thu Jun 21, 2012 3:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

Warner Bros releasing Cloud Atlas on October 27th gives me hope, but I'm sure it'll be way too edgy for the Oscars.

I could see Life of Pi playing big. Django Unchained could definitely be a power player if it really delivers in the same way Inglorious Basterds did.

Author:  Tyler [ Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

David wrote:
I would love to predict a Best Picture nomination for Moonrise Kingdom, but I can't see it happening. The Midnight in Paris comparison is tempting (Moonrise is a far superior film even), but also seems flawed because Wes Anderson films have received a grand total of three Oscar nominations, whereas Woody Allen is an Oscar fixture (despite rarely attending).

Midnight in Paris also played gangbusters with older audiences, whereas Moonrise Kingdom' core fan base is much younger.

The obligatory screenplay nomination for a quirky, well-received film (Memento, The Royal Tenenbaums, American Splendor, Y tu mamá también, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, The Squid and the Whale, Lars and the Real Girl) should be in the cards, though. The writing branches are always more adventurous.


A lot of those would have easily been nominated in a potential field of 10.

Author:  David [ Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

Maybe, but even in the era of the expanded field, there have been writing nominees such as The Messenger, Another Year, Margin Call, A Separation, In the Loop, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, films too small or niche to garner a Best Picture nod.

Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

Stil can't believe Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy missed. Not only did it score two important nods, its box-office actually was really solid given the lack of huge awards buzz. If nominated for BP, it would have cleared $35 million with ease (it never even played in 900 theatres or more).


Even the Brits didn't love it much, considerng its BAFTAs performance...

Author:  Johnny Dollar [ Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

It was too cold and too steely and English. Not a criticism, merely an awards-season observation

Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

The cold part was no different in TWBB or No Country for Old Men.

English, yes, but at least the British should have loved it then...

Author:  Johnny Dollar [ Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

Yes but those other movies weren't English, let alone as stiff-upper-lip, keep-calm-and-carry-on English as this one

Author:  Tyler [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

David wrote:
Maybe, but even in the era of the expanded field, there have been writing nominees such as The Messenger, Another Year, Margin Call, A Separation, In the Loop, and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, films too small or niche to garner a Best Picture nod.


Moonrise Kingdom is going to make more money than any of those films.

Author:  David [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 7:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

Maybe you're right, and it will be nominated. I certainly wouldn't mind. I just have a hard time seeing a Wes Anderson film, a film with the strongest appeal among young adults, scoring a Best Picture nomination.

Author:  Jonathan [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 11:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

Moonrise's reviews have also quietly crept into the realm of outstanding - its MC score is at 84, with eight 100s and only five out of the 42 reviews have a rating under 75. It's also become his best reviews movie on RT, with 94% and an 8.1 average rating. It's just a really, really easy film to like or even love, which should help it come awards season.

Author:  O [ Wed Jun 27, 2012 12:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

So somewhat shockingly, Tatum is getting some rave reviews for MM. Some are calling it a career making film.

This sounds so far off for the Academy, but if the acclaim picks up and the box office supports it, could he actually get Oscar attention?

Author:  David [ Wed Jun 27, 2012 7:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

I doubt it very much. Good reviews are his reward at this point. It's still a comic male-stripper movie released in June. Best Actor competition is going to be fierce. By New Year's, Joaquin Phoenix, Bill Murray, Daniel Day-Lewis, Leonardo DiCaprio, John Hawkes, Jamie Foxx, Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Tom Hanks, and Ryan Gosling will be in the hunt.

He might score a Golden Globe nomination.

Author:  Chippy [ Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

O wrote:
So somewhat shockingly, Tatum is getting some rave reviews for MM. Some are calling it a career making film.

This sounds so far off for the Academy, but if the acclaim picks up and the box office supports it, could he actually get Oscar attention?


0.0%

Author:  David [ Fri Jul 20, 2012 5:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

The Dark Knight Rises isn't happening, in my opinion. Not outside the technical categories. I s'pose Best Picture isn't out of the question, but I don't feel enough love will be there come the end of the year. Not among the largely older Academy.

Certainly none of the actors will be nominated. Michael Caine has a few amazing moments, but vanishes for too long.

Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Fri Jul 20, 2012 5:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 2012 Contenders Discussion

^ I feel the same as above. No acting noms for sure and I don't feel BP either.

But it will rule the techs. Cinematography, Sound noms, Visual Effects, Editing, Art Direction...

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