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 LA Time's Oscar Odds. 
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Post LA Time's Oscar Odds.
The annual Oscar Odds issue came in at the LA Times today. Here are their odds for Best Picture.

Ray - 6 to 1
Million Dollar Baby - 7 to 1
Sideways - 8 to 1
Spanglish - 10 to 1
Finding Neverland - 12 to 1
Kinsey - 14 to 1
The Aviator - 16 to 1
Hotel Rwanda - 18 to 1
Closer - 20 to 1
Incredibles - 25 to 1
The Sea Inside - 30 to 1
The Motorcycle Diaries - 30 to 1
A Very Long Engagement - 30 to 1
The House of Flying Daggers - 30 to 1
The Phantom of the Opera - 40 to 1
The Passion of the Christ - 50 to 1
Farenheit 9/11 - 70 to 1
Alexander - 100 to 1

Keep in mind, Return of the King had a 8 to 1 odd, Chicago had a 5 to 1 odd, and Gangs of New York had a 20 to 1 odd.

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Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:32 am
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Full Article:

Favorites:

"Ray" (6 to 1). A rousing film starring best actor favorite Jamie Foxx, "Ray" comes equipped with an academy-friendly dramatic trajectory (see "A Beautiful Mind"): the troubled artist who triumphs over a smorgasbord of obstacles, including blindness, drugs, poverty and prejudice. It can't hurt with academy liberals that there are more great African American roles in this film than nearly all the other pictures combined.

"Million Dollar Baby" (7 to 1). With academy icon Clint Eastwood directing and giving an elegiac performance as a fight manager who reluctantly trains a woman boxer played by Hilary Swank, this powerful drama has the finely honed craft and packs the emotional wallop voters traditionally value in a best picture.

"Sideways" (8 to 1). Perhaps the year's best-reviewed picture, it offers breakthrough performances, nuanced direction from Alexander Payne and is getting a huge push from Fox Searchlight. While critics' favorites rarely carry the day with conservative academy voters, "Lost in Translation" broke that rule last year, as could this superb film.

"Spanglish" (10 to 1). If there ever was an academy favorite, it's James L. Brooks, who has scored best picture nominations for three films he directed. It still may be a huge leap for the academy to laud a film featuring Adam Sandler, but the crackling dialogue and showy performances make it a serious contender, especially because this comic culture-clash saga of a Mexican maid's entanglement with a wealthy Westside family will hit home with many industry voters.

Contenders:

"Finding Neverland" (12 to 1). This tale of "Peter Pan" creator J.M. Barrie is essentially about the drama of the creative process, always a favorite theme with academy voters. With another strong performance from Johnny Depp, this deft biopic should resonate with many academyites who value artful filmmaking.

"Kinsey" (14 to 1). If they gave Oscars for the film most mentioned in Op-Ed pieces, this well-reviewed biopic of Alfred Kinsey would win hands down. Populated with respected actors, it has the kind of thought-provoking heft that could earn a nomination, though films that deal with sex in such a frank manner (à la "Quills") often get a lukewarm reception by the academy.

"The Aviator" (16 to 1). On paper this sprawling biopic about Howard Hughes is right in the academy's wheelhouse. It's a star-filled film about a bigger-than-life adventurer who not only changed the shape of aviation but also knew his way around Hollywood. On the other hand, reaction to the film has been wildly mixed, as is the academy's attitude about directorial giant Martin Scorsese, who came up empty last year with an even more ambitious film ("Gangs of New York").

"Hotel Rwanda" (18 to 1). An old-fashioned punch-to-the-gut biopic about a hotel manager (Don Cheadle) who saves thousands during a genocidal civil war in 1990s Rwanda, this well-told story has the clout of real-life drama behind it. It also invariably leaves audiences moved and shamed, two qualities that have served as engines to propel Holocaust films to Oscar recognition in the past.

"Closer" (20 to 1). Oscar voters adore director Mike Nichols, who coaxes marvelous performances out of the film's star cast, but this theater adaptation's furtive sexual couplings may be too chilly and emotionally raw for many academy types.

Longshots:

"The Incredibles" (25 to 1). Glowingly reviewed, the film is a consummate technical achievement with grown-up artistic themes. Alas, the academy has been stubbornly resistant to past animation triumphs, largely because its mammoth actors' branch (bigger than the next three biggest branches together) continues to view animated films as greasy kid stuff. It will have to settle for a best animated film nod.

"The Sea Inside," "The Motorcycle Diaries," "A Very Long Engagement" and "The House of Flying Daggers" (30 to 1). As soulful and visually arresting as these movies are, they are stigmatized as foreign films, which barely fare better than animated pictures with the academy. Since 1973, only three foreign films have managed a best picture nod; none has won. Someday Oscar voters will acknowledge that many of the best films are made abroad, but don't count on it this year.

"The Phantom of the Opera" (40 to 1). Sumptuous and theatrical, this will appeal to Andrew Lloyd Webber-ophiles, but it's unlikely to survive comparisons to acclaimed musicals like "Chicago" or "Moulin Rouge."

"The Passion of the Christ" (50 to 1). If Wal-Mart shoppers gave Oscars, this would win going away, but the academy is not exactly this film's core constituency.

"Fahrenheit 9/11" (70 to 1). If ever a movie peaked too early, this is it. Even in Hollywood, no one wants to think about the presidential campaign anymore.

"Alexander" (100 to 1). Put it this way: No way!


Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:52 am
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I think most experts overestimate Ray's chances :?

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Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:49 pm
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