Very interesting article by Tom O'Neil.:

How soon we derby watchers forget years like 2001-2002 when, at this point in the Best Picture race, everyone was tracking the wrong ponies. "Gladiator" was just a popcorn-light summer hit that didn't appear to have the artistic muscle to go all the way. By mid-December, producers at "Access Hollywood" were DESPERATE to find just one journalist they could interview who didn't believe "Traffic" was a lock to win. After all, it had just swept the New York Film Critics Circle kudos, it was loaded with A-list stars, and everyone on the planet declared it to be The Year of Steven Soderbergh. When asked if ANYTHING could beat "Traffic," one famous pundit said, "Wellllllll, maybe 'Cast Away' …."

Could this be another Dark Horse Oscar year? In general, it's often smart to stick with frontrunners, as "Chicago" and "Lord of the Years: Return of the King" recently proved. But be prepared for those sudden, black-horse breakouts that "Braveheart" and "Midnight Cowboy" pulled off. For example: "Finding Neverland" has reaped huzzahs at early screenings and looks like a solid contender, sure, but beware: the Catholic League is already making accusations that its subject, author J.M. Barrie, was a secret pedophile. There's little or no evidence to support that claim, so it may not matter at all. Also, Marty Scorsese's "The Aviator" looks good, but will it take off at the box office?

Meantime, other frontrunners are definitely tripping up. "Closer" turns out to be admirable, but not huggable -- forget it. "Alexander" fell on his celluloid sword. "Phantom of the Opera" has enthusiastic fans, but there are too many ominous boos coming from the balcony. "Sideways" isn't "important." "Passion of the Christ" needs a miracle to resurrect its chances -- Mel Gibson refuses to spend a nickel on campaigning. "Fahrenheit 9/11" faces two big problems: George Bush won and it's a movie without actors (people who comprise the largest voting block within the academy). Does that matter? Perhaps not.

But just to be on the safe side, let's check out the dark horses …

Only four have the legs to go all the way: "Hotel Rwanda," "Spanglish," "Kinsey," and "Million Dollar Baby."

"Hotel Rwanda" is a curious wild card. It won the People's Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival -- just like "American Beauty" did before it trotted through the Globes and Oscars. It's an "important" movie with fast-growing buzz and fanatical fans who hail it as "the African 'Schindler's List'" -- thus comparing it to the only movie in showbiz history to win Best Picture from every major film-awards group. Rumors abound that it's ahead in the voting at the National Board of Review, but, hmmm, there's similar scuttlebutt about "Finding Neverland" and "Kinsey." As of this writing, most members of the New York and L.A. film critics groups haven't seen it yet, but it's just the kind of Message Movie that could cause those notoriously fickle folks to ditch "Sideways" or "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind" as their Best Picture choice at the last minute.

Several members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association like "Hotel Rwanda" so much that they've seen it twice. If it picks up one Best Picture award before heading into the Golden Globes, it has a serious chance to win there because its rivals may be weak. Its chief competition in the category of Best Drama Picture will be "Finding Neverland" and "The Aviator" -- both formidable, but vulnerable -- and "Kinsey" and "Million Dollar Baby." ("Passion of the Christ," "Fahrenheit 9/11" and "A Very Long Engagement" aren't eligible.)

"Kinsey" could be that dark horse that's really a tortoise that wins the race because it keeps a steady pace while all other derby rivals tumble. Let's say "Finding Neverland" gets bashed mercilessly by the Sex Police (too bad for Miramax that its title inevitably reminds you of the Michael Jackson pedophile case). Early buzz on "The Aviator" is respectful, but no one's gushing about it. If it doesn't take off at the box-office, "Aviator" is not going to be The Movie That Finally Wins Marty the Oscar.

If "Kinsey" wins Best Drama Picture at the Globes, it will suddenly strike everyone as the obvious choice all along -- this year's "A Beautiful Mind" or "Gandhi," the well-crafted, inspiring biopic about a heroic man. Actually, Kinsey is arguably the greatest hero ever in Hollywood -- where sex is the chief sport, pastime and religion. Heaping kudos on his biopic will also be a great way of welcoming red-hot filmmaker Bill Condon into the Big League after he wrote "Chicago" and penned and directed "Gods and Monsters." The Oscars, Globes and Guilds love to do that.

But upstart Condon needs to worry about sly veteran Clint Eastwood, whose "Million Dollar Baby" will come out swinging in this slugfest. It's making a last-minute appearance in this year's awards matchup because Clint is so proud of his celluloid baby that he ordered Warner Bros. to yank it off the 2005 sked and jam it into this kudos derby. Expect it to gain late-breaking momentum FAST. Lucky for "Baby's" rivals, most of the buzz is about Clint's perf as a wise ole boxing mentor. If he gets nommed for Best Picture and Director at the Oscars, voters might think, "Ah, he's won those already for 'Unforgiven.' But he's never won Best Actor … let's give 'Baby' that prize." However, never underestimate the Testosterone Factor at these Hollywood kudos where more than 65 percent of the voters are guys. A hormonal tide could carry Macho Man's pic to top victories, too. If so, that would start at the Globes, where Clint DID win Best Director, but "Unforgiven" lost Best Drama Picture in 1993 to "Scent of a Woman." He also won the Globe for Best Director in 1989 for "Bird," which wasn't nommed for Best Picture. Clint's never been nominated for an acting award at the Globes.

Whatever movie wins the Globe for Best Drama Picture will have to face off against the likely winner of Best Musical/Comedy Picture: "Spanglish."

James L. Brooks is about to ambush the kudos scene with a movie that award pundits aren't paying attention to right now. That's foolish, considering Brooks' track record at Oscars past. The last time he was in the race -- seven years ago -- his "As Good as It Gets" won Best Actor and Actress and was nominated in five more Academy Award categories, including Best Picture, an award he won in 1983 for "Terms of Endearment."

But Brooks is not getting any attention for two reasons: he creates dramadies. People remember his laughs and scoff off his movies at first mention, forgetting what a dead-on dramatist he is. Also, no Oscarwatchers have seen "Spanglish" yet because Brooks is still fretting over his baby in the editing room, refusing to let go until he has to. His deadline is Dec. 1 -- which means he won't get to show it to the National Board of Review, which announces its champs that day.
If "Spanglish" is going to break out big time in the Oscar race, that's going to happen first at Christmas when it will probably be a box-office hit. Spies who saw early test screenings out of town say it's fantastic -- a perfect date and family movie that has edge, attitude, sophistication and a lot more dramatic gravitas than comedy as it spotlights the travails of immigrants who are "on the outside of the America Dream, looking in," as the film's promo says.
Now imagine how that hit, well-written, sassily directed movie about that subject matter will resonate with those immigrant members of THE HOLLYWOOD FOREIGN PRESS ASSOCIATION.

Then, just line up its Golden Globes, please.

One may go at last to Brooks, who has never won a Globe for Best Director. "Spanglish" has a lot of serious rivals in the race for Best Comedy/Musical Picture -- including "Phantom of the Opera" (musicals ALWAYS win this category) and "The Incredibles" (hey, "Toy Story 2" won here). But "Spanglish" has the best odds to prevail, given its subject matter and the filmmaker's artistic pedigree and past track record.

Then … what happens next? "Spanglish" will head into the derby home stretch opposite the Globe's Best Drama Picture. Down-but-not-out "Fahrenheit" and "Passion" may try to catch up at this point, but they'll have lost momentum. "A Very Long Engagement" will probably appear on the track then, but it can't win because of its subtitles.

This year's derby can shape up differently if surprises come out of the critics' awards, but that's not likely. The New York, L.A. and national society are predictable and seem to have more impact on the acting Oscars than the Best Picture contest.

And this year, finally, the Broadcast Film Critics Association gets the chance to prove if it's a player or not. Its Critics Choice Awards will be telecast by the WB on Jan. 9 -- that's high visibility 7 days before the Globes.

In the past, the organization of brazen junket press has shamelessly pretended that it had much more clout than it did. The BFCA insists, for example, that its Critics Choice Award is the best predictor of the Oscar, but that's ridiculous. The Critics Choice Award has only been around since 1995 and for most of that time it only listed three nominees in each category, thus upping the odds of guessing correctly from the five that would eventually end up on the Oscar ballot. Hell, BFCA didn't even nominate Oscar champs Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") or Denzel Washington ("Training Day").

But from now on BFCA leaders may not have to spread their nonsense ballyhoo anymore. By moving up their ceremony to early January and getting it aired by a major network, they'll really be a factor. But how much? And will they have the nerve to hop on their own pony and try to prove their new clout by launching it Oscar-bound? Being the junket press, they love big movies with big stars, so perhaps they'll take a ride aboard "Aviator" with Leo and make it a major player ...? Or "Finding Neverland"? (Memo to Leo and Johnny: it's a very good idea to announce right now that you plan to attend their kudofest.)

If that happens, ditch the dark horses and put your money back on the lead horses.

Ah, the derby just got much more complicated, suspenseful … and interesting, eh?

Spanglish would be a surprise. Especially with Adam Sandler in it. Will he help or hurt the voting?

He was nominated for a Golden Globe for Puch-Drunk Love so even though there's a slight difference between Oscar voters and GG voters, I think they're willing to warm up to a Sandler film.

I think ultimately it won't hurt it, or help it.

But I think Paz Vega has a strong chance for a best supporting actress nod now. She's getting some of the best reviews in the film.

Isn't she going Best Actress?

You can't say that a picture is a "dark horse" and a "frontrunner" at the same time. That makese no sense.

Kinsey is not a dark horse. It has a director and cast that is specifically suited for Oscar gold. It doesn't mean the movie is soley made FOR the Oscars, but it is just a normal Oscar aiming film. Neither would be Spanglish. If it was coming from someone other than James L. Brooks, maybe, but the names and release alone will make it so it will be seen by almost every Academy member whether it is a player or not. These films have chances that other films do not.

Vera Drake and Hotel Rwanda are darkhorses, because they are small films that would have to have some support in the Academy that currently probably doesn't exist, or doesn't exist on a very vocal level. And they have to build that support, and fight for every screening so people can see their films. They have to hope they fill that 5th nomination slot.

Million Dollar Baby may or may not be a darkhorse, but I suspect that it's coming in so late in the game it won't matter because I don't think people will really know about it. I think it's a non-player.

Even on some levels, The Pianist wasn't a dark horse, it was mearly a last minute player (similar to what Million Dollar Baby might be), but it is not a film like Full Monty, which was really a dark horse canidate. As far as predicting goes, you can't really for dark horses, that's specifically what makes them dark horses. Some may guess, that's fine.

I guess its still unclear. But I thought Tea Leoni was lead.

Maybe both will go lead at the Globes and then Paz will be supporting everywhere else. (Like cAtherine and Renee in Chicago)

Probably.

There is so much opposite talk and confusion in the air, I really don't know what to think anymore and am nto sure about one single thing!!!!

But it's fun!!!

So far....

Aviator: Everyone seems to agree it will get in there, but many don't think it will be spectacular and the 'movie that will in it for marty' even though the trailer and audience reaction suggests otherwise.

Alexander: No one really knew what type of player it will be, then it started getting some good buzz, but it's all been falling flat lately due to early screenings (or so we hear).

Closer: it's been highly anticipated with an all-star cast and a director walking on air right now. Everyone wants to see it and award it, but just as my fear all along, many people question if it's oscar material and if it will be unanimously praised... or just another love-affair drama.

Phantom of the Opera: There was buzz building way before, then it just stopped for months, and now it almost has the most buzz for any film. So many people are highyly praising it and saying it's the top frunt-runner, others are saying it's just another musical....

Finding Neverland: It has the critical acclaim and audiences are loving it, but where is the buzz? It's minimal.... alot of people say it's a better contender than Aviator, others say it won't get the Miramax push.

Fahrenheit 9/11: Everyone sort of agrees on this one... it's almost dead. I think It's safe to take it out fo the race now. I mean, it still has that little potential, but no one thinks it will get in there...

Passion: this was also almost a dead dog, but this recent news of Mel not campaigning and all is raising interest. Don't count it out fully, but doesn't look like many voters will be too passionate about it.

Ray: some predictors say it will go all the way and it's one of the mian frunt-runners, others say it's only riding for Foxx's success and the movie won't get a Best Pic nod and people are way off for putting it in their predictions.

Kinsey: Alot of people say it's such an 'Oscar' movie with strong lead and supporting performances. But it needs bigger buzz. But the biggest thing IMO that's in its way is my own opinion of the film, lol... It really didn't strike a chord with me and it wasn't so spectacular to overcome the sexual content which should play some part in the challenges it will face. Plus, I don't think Nesson's performance was on par with Russel Crow's and Linney's not near Connely's.... so I really dont know... seems too small and too risky

Hotel Rwanda: It's a really small film, but it's been getting spectacular reviews and that article Rod posted says it could be a big player.... but it hasn't appeared on many predictions...

Spanglish: I knew it was indirectly sort of in the running for Oscar, but I never knew it woukd be this serious... I still don't think it will get much more than Golden Globes, Best Picture race is far too complicated for this light-weight contender to get in.... But now that article is saying it will be a big player....

Sideways: It's amazing how this movie is better and more well recieved than LIT originally was, but no one seems to be rooting for it or really no one has faith in it. On top of that, it's buzz is dying down, so I dunno. But it really was up to now the perfect choice for the small, indie spot... I mean it's almost a mirror reflection of LIT disposition last year.

Million Dollar Baby: Non one really wanst to think of this in the race because it's coming out too late and also because they probably know it's just going to confuse the race more, so they probably want to leave it out to simplify it, making it an even bigger dark-horse, and I think you can call this one a dark-horse, no one really knows what to expect.

Vera Drake: everyone sort of agrees it's too small to get in the race and not enough buzz or exposure (only for Staunton)

The Motorcycle Diaries: IT didn't turn out as fantastic as expected or thought, but it was a pretty good contender till buzz started failing and with that everyone WANTS to ignore it because they think Eternal Sunshine will na it's spot, which just won't happen.... I'm beginning to feel like Baumer of LOTR with Eternal Sunshine, except I know I'm right.

And I think it's safe to say just about every category is as complicated as this one.

Remember,What the academy likes best is Big ratings,So do the GG.So TPOTC and F/911 have a good chance because the academy and GG knows that if those films are nominated that the ratings will be through the roof.They know that nominating only artsy films will give them low ratings,and in this day and age Ratings is the thing that means the most.
If TPOTC gets nominated(and i think it deserves it based on quality alone IMO)a lot of christians who dont normaly see these awards(especially evangelicals)will see it just for that sole reason,and that is a huge audience.

that's paryially true...
However, I don't think reatings could swing an incredibly controversial film such as Passion, especially when it seems the Academy leans a little more to the Jewish majority than Christian (not to point or anything, I don't judge, but just by recent Pianist min-sweep, can't some tell?)

It could have helped F9/11, but Bush won, so that just cancelled out the effect!

I have been predicting Hotel Rwanda to be this year's dark horse for many months now and it looks like it might become true. The movie just has a lot going for it and the first reviews I read were all positive, especially praising Cheadle's performance.

As for Spanglish, I really don't see this one getting many noms. It will only happen if the competition is really weak this year.

The Phantom of the Opera is also a wild card at the moment. It really can go either way, but I see a positive turn-out in the end.

UGh.

I hate when I'm swayed by what other people are saying.

So I won't.

|I'm not buying that Fahrenheit 9/11 doesn't have a chance now that Bush won theory. Well what a better time to make a statement?

The academy loves it.

And is a pre-September release gonna be nominated? (usually one is). It's FAhrenheit 9/11 or Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, unless something like Manchurian Candidate surprises.

Unfortunately with it not being elligible for the Globes it might be a little harder to tell than with other films. I think it will still be a strong contender.

Although I do not think Fahrenheit will be receiving any major nominations (nor did I think so before the election), as the Newsweek article I posted a while ago said, would the Academy not love sending a big 'F-You' to the Bush administration?

Though, like I said, I do not think it will happen.

F 9/11 won't get any major noms. A pre-September release will probably garner a Best Picture nomination, but that won't be Fahrenheit 9/11. Much rather Eternal Sunshine.