Register  |  Sign In
View unanswered posts | View active topics It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 4:05 pm



Reply to topic  [ 72 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3
 National Board Of Review - Finding Neverland Best Picture 
Author Message
Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm
Posts: 10906
Post 
loyalfromlondon wrote:
Special Recognition of Films that Reflect the Freedom of Expression: Fahrenheit 9/11, The Passion of the Christ, Conspiracy of Silence




In other words,this is an award for conterversial films right?

And do you guys think Eternal sunshine chances are hurt because it came out at the beggining of the year?


Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:36 pm
Profile WWW
Post 
Im a bit upset about Eternal Sunshine, but it never helps to be too late for the previous years awards yet too early for the current years awards.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:38 pm
Extraordinary

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
Post 
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and The Phantom of the Opera are hurt by this the most. Otherwise, pretty predictable top 10.

Collateral reminds me of Last Samurai.

Jamie Foxx is on his way for winning the Oscar.

House of Flying Daggers will get a technical nomination at Oscar.

Finding Neverland, Closer, and The Aviator are the closest to locks.

Million Dollar Baby's stock continues to rise.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:40 pm
Profile WWW
You must have big rats
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
Post 
Million Dollar Baby definitely came out of nowhere and keeps gaining potential. I still think it'll miss out on a Best Picture nom.

I agree on the comparison Collateral/The Last Samurai. On the other hand, I have to say that I found The Last Samurai very underrated at last year's oscars. It was definitely better than Master and Commander.

I think that there is no chance for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind to get a Best Picture nomination. There is too much going against it. It is a lock for Best Original Screenplay and has a great chance of having Kate Winslet nominated, but that is about it.

And Javier Bardem will give Jamie Foxx a run for his money, mark my words.

_________________
The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!

Image


Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:46 pm
Profile WWW
Post 
Dr. Lecter wrote:

And Javier Bardem will give Jamie Foxx a run for his money, mark my words.



<<<<<<grabs a pen :wink:


Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:53 pm
life begins now
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
Post 
Eh, decent top 10. As I've said before, FN is a good movie, but probably shouldn't be the #1 for the year. I hope a few movies (Closer, The Aviator) are better at least.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 5:01 pm
Profile YIM
Sbil

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
Post 
Chris wrote:
Eh, decent top 10. As I've said before, FN is a good movie, but probably shouldn't be the #1 for the year. I hope a few movies (Closer, The Aviator) are better at least.


Indeed. Finding Neverland certainly belongs in the top 10 (I mean, from what I've seen so far this year), but it's not worthy of #1.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 5:29 pm
Profile
Veteran

Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:07 am
Posts: 3014
Location: Kansai
Post 
The NBR is a good indicator of who's probably gonna get some Oscar love, but they miss it sometimes too. I didn't do very good on my predictions, but I did put Finding Neverland and Jamie Foxx as my alternate choices.

I think we can safely say that Annette Bening is going to at least get nominated this year. Despite Being Julia being a small picture, she will get nominated and has a better than average chance at a win. Linney and Fox are certain for Oscar noms as well. This certainly helps Thomas Hayden Church as well.

Good for Topher Grace! And I'm getting more eager to see Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 5:38 pm
Profile WWW
You must have big rats
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
Post 
loyalfromlondon wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:

And Javier Bardem will give Jamie Foxx a run for his money, mark my words.



<<<<<<grabs a pen :wink:


Do so. :)

Having said that, I want to add that either Bardem will win (most likely) or someone else, but NOT Foxx.

_________________
The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!

Image


Wed Dec 01, 2004 6:03 pm
Profile WWW
life begins now
User avatar

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 9:09 pm
Posts: 6480
Location: Columbus, Ohio
Post 
Exactly how much of an indicator does everybody think these are to the Oscars? Not since American Beauty has a Best Picture Oscar winner won here, and two times a non-nominee has won. Before American Beauty, Schindler's List was the last winner here to go on and win the Oscar. I'd say Benning and Fox are locks for nods, but not wins. Linney looks really good, as does Church, but I would consider him the most likely to miss out. I'd say Closer's "Best Ensemble" boasts well for all 4, or at least the three main contender's (If Law is indeed out of the race). The Aviator also seems to be a lock, but could a film upset it? Finding Neverland deserves to be in the top 10, but not #1. So far this year, Eternal Sunshine gets that award from me, but I haven't seen Kinsey, Ray and of course the movies that aren't out yet.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 6:15 pm
Profile YIM
Forum General
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6502
Post 
Surprising.

I was in agreement with most of you that Kinsey/Closer/Sideways would take top honors. They all made the list, though, so... *props*

Also interesting to see all the love for Collateral (best director over Scorsese, Eastwood, Nichols - wow). I have a hard time believing it will keep that up throughout the rest of the season, though.

Things are looking up for The Aviator, Closer, and Million Dollar Baby (which is quickly becoming one of my most anticipated), and I think Finding Neverland has pretty much cemented itself as a sure-fire nominee (well, close to sure-fire).

More thoughts later.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:31 pm
Profile WWW
Forum General
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
Post 
Aside from the number one, I am extemely happy with the top ten, it just reinforces all my oscar predictions and reasoning.

I am stunned that Finding Neverland got #1. Completely and utterly shocked. In no way is it deserving of that title. It was good movie, I just saw it a couple of days ago, but it was not up to par with what the buzz has been, it was a bit slow, Depp's performance was on the bottom of his great performances list, and it never really took flight.

I had just about eraced it from my Best Pic nominations till this now...
Then Annette Benning wins...

Just as some films were losing buzz and making the race clearer the NBR confuses everything again.

though I am starting to get notorious for slamming Eternal Sunshine predictions for Oscar (not the movie itself), I expected it to make this list and it didn't, reinforcing all what I have been saying all along.

It's great that it won screenplay, because it means a great film was not overlooked.
Sideways really gained some too, just when I thought it was slipping... it threw the race into a conundrum again.

I will try to analyze each movie's and ranks' effects....

1. Finding Neverland: Really boosts its chances at a Best Picture nomintion even though it's not a sure thing still, but it's officially back in the race if it ever lost ground.

2. Aviator: just solidifies its lock for a best picture nomination and win, since Neverland will NEVER win. Considering people were talking about it not appearing on the list.... it did very well and keeps living up to the buzz... I don't think it will disappoint.

3. CLOSER: I wanted this to be number 1, but it's awesome it took 3rd.... very comforting that it's getting off to a great start cuz there will be alot of people who won't like it. I think this almost solidifies its nod and runner up after Aviator

4. Million Dollar Baby: This just sky-rocketed its chances. IT's now almost a major player. While I think it and Sideways might just miss out on a nom... it's gonna be a big player. This was excellent for Clint Eastwood.

5. Sideways: Just when I thought it was losing steam.... Considering it's now ranked 5 on this list with a screenplay win and not only just a mention, but a win for supporting actor.... this is shaping up to be a major contender. I ahve no doubt now that it will almost live up to Lost in Translation status among critics' top tens and just makes the best picture race so much more tighter.... it might just miss out though... I think it's gonna duke it out with Hotel Rwanda for the small film slot.

6. Kinsey: I hate the position it's in right now... I first thought it was a good movie but it wouldn't get a nod, but everyone was talking about its best pic chances. Then it start slipping off my top 6-7 list, then I started to see how it could be recieved and it starting working it's way up, but it hasn't cracked my top 7 likely for Best Pic yet... and his solidifies its current position.... a real toss up! It defintely didn't lose ground (especially with a Laura Linney win) but I don't think it gained major ground like Neverland, Million$Baby, and Sideways.

7. Vera Drake: I don't think this makes much a difference. It's too small... at its best this helps Imelda staunton even though Annete Benning really hurt her chances considerign she was almost always the front-runner for a nod and Benning was slipping away!

8. Ray: It's great to see it on the list, very deserving. However, if only it were higher, it would have been a big help in deciding whether it will get a nod or not. It does help its chances along with Foxx's win, but it's still up in the air. I will still give Ray the edge, because the movie istelf is quite good. I am keeping it in my predictions.

9. collateral: It's awesome that this movie went without being unnoticed.... with a micheal mann win (an almost shoe in for mike nichols) this has crept its way back into the bottom of the race.... However, it won't get a Best Pic nomination and it's slim very slim, to get a director nod.... and these two wins don't really help it's actors.... so, Iw ould still count this oen out. A real surprise though and glad to see it.

10. Hotel Rwanda: It was integral to show up on this list and it did. But it's low rank really puts it in a pickle of situation.... I had Hotel Rawnda with an edge over Sideways, Ray, Neverland and Million$Baby to get a nod and this may put it just behind them for now, but I still haven't made up my mind!

Foreign Film: The Sea Inside.... I believe this isn't elligible for Foreign Oscar, so it's hopeful chances are Picture, Actor, and maybe a techie...
I never really believed this movie could get an Oscar nod, but this win moved it into my top 10, from just outside of it. Good move, but a win for Bardem (which I also highly doubt in Oscars) would ahve sky-rocketed it.

Best Animated Feature: Incredibles.... solidifying its nod ( a given) and also making it the front-runner in this early start of the race.

Best Actor: Jamie Foxx... solidifying a nod and REALLY hinting to a win (which I am justa bout positive of)

Best Actress: Annette Benning.... puts her back into the front-running position or runner up for a nod, but I still don't think she has enough to win, but this win might have completely renewed her chances.

supporting Actor: Surprise win from Hayden Church... now a shoe-in for supporting nod, not for the win though. He also appeared in the Independent Spirit Award nominees so he's gaining some momentum for himself and the film.

Supporting Actress: Laura Linney.... solidifying her nod and taking her to the fronts of the race to win... she'll have to duke it out with a few other ladies.... her previous win doesn't give her the edge though!

Ensemble: Closer as originally expected.... pretty much solidifies noms for at least 2 actors.... I think Owen and Portman. I also think Julia will get a nod and Law might sneak in again like last year, though ironic how his sneak in last year will hurt his chances now!

Breakthrough Actor: Togher Grace.... I think he's really up-and-coming, I was saying it last month and I'm glad he won. It won't do much for him come Oscar (best chance was supp. for p.s. but it's too small) but it's setting up a great career path.

Breakthrough Female: Emmy Rossum.... VERY INTERESTING.... this puts her into the Best Actress Race and maybe at least some saving grace for the Phantom.

Best Director: Micheal Mann.... this might give him that 5th director slot always missed out by a best pic nod, but it's far too early to tell.... he has to build on this now!

Directorial Debut: I think this helps Braff in a writing nom, nothing else, but great to see some new talent emerging.

Adapted Screenplay: now a shoe-in and front-runner to win.
Original Screenplay: now a shoe-in for Eternal Sunshine and maybe it's ONLY nomination!

BIG WINNERS

Closer
Million Dollar Baby
Finding Neverland
Sideways

LOSERS

Phantom of the Opera: I gave it the edge before over closer for a nod, and now closer has the edge and it might be losing it's place in my top 5 predictions (even though the next four films on my list are so neck and neck, this still ranks three on my list.... a very doubtful three!

Eternal Sunshine: Finally some satisfaction. I loved the movie, but I never thought it would get much and this starts proving it. It will appear on many critics' lists, but I think it's officially out of the Best Picture Race.

Fahrenheit 9/11: It is cold turkey right now left out after Thanksgiving.

A Very Long Engagement: consider it out of the race!

_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man

Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine


Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:39 pm
Profile
Forum General
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6502
Post 
Special Recognition of Films that Reflect the Freedom of Expression: Fahrenheit 9/11, The Passion of the Christ

A tad silly. :P


Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:44 pm
Profile WWW
Extra on the Ordinary
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
Post 
Wow, no surprises, that's...surprising. hehe

This solidifies Finding Neverland as a lock, so the question becomes wether or not Miramax can get two.

The answer, probably. So expect both Aviator and Finding Neverland to be nominated come Oscar time.

Closer...ahhh...well #3 is obviously great, but I can't call it a lock at this point.

Big changes: Phantom of the Opera has no chance at best picture if it didn't make the top 10 at all here (but Emmy Rossum got breakthrough performance, that's kinda interesting, considering Catalina Sandino Moreno and even Natalie Portman. WE'll see.). Still, no best picture.

I think alll 5 best picture nominees will come from the top 10 this year, with only two other wildcards.

Spanglish, which was not screened before the National Board of Review awarsds, so it can still make an impact.

And FAhrenheit 9/11, because it's a documentary.

_________________
Image

Best Actress 2008


Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:51 pm
Profile WWW
Forum General
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 22, 2004 12:14 am
Posts: 9966
Post 
Rod wrote:
Wow, no surprises, that's...surprising. hehe

This solidifies Finding Neverland as a lock, so the question becomes wether or not Miramax can get two.

The answer, probably. So expect both Aviator and Finding Neverland to be nominated come Oscar time.

Closer...ahhh...well #3 is obviously great, but I can't call it a lock at this point.

Big changes: Phantom of the Opera has no chance at best picture if it didn't make the top 10 at all here (but Emmy Rossum got breakthrough performance, that's kinda interesting, considering Catalina Sandino Moreno and even Natalie Portman. WE'll see.). Still, no best picture.

I think alll 5 best picture nominees will come from the top 10 this year, with only two other wildcards.

Spanglish, which was not screened before the National Board of Review awarsds, so it can still make an impact.

And FAhrenheit 9/11, because it's a documentary.


Aviator is a sure thing now, that;s right.
And Neverland is 90% a sure thing now.
Though I think of it as a lock, I would liekly side with you on Closer.... it still has to strike more chords than this.

I don't think Phantom is out of the race.... it missed out, yes, it was almost wholly expected. However... a movie like Phantom is not gonna get alot of attention awards wise... it's gonna play as the crowd-pleasing nod and challenge Marty for the 'It's about time' category.... though his is for a win and Phantom's is for a nom, no chance of a win!

I don't think Fahrnheit 9/11 will get in now at all.... it's dead! Someone was true in saying no one wants to go back to the President race again, plus nods will be our inaugaration time when pro-bush sentiment will still be in the air...

there is absolutely no way Spanglish will get in over Sideways. I give Eternal Sunshine the upper hand over Spanglish!!!! :wink: (the bottom two in my list :D )

_________________
Top Movies of 2009
1. Hurt Locker / 2. (500) Days of Summer / 3. Sunshine Cleaning / 4. Up / 5. I Love You, Man

Top Anticipated 2009
1. Nine


Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:13 pm
Profile
Extra on the Ordinary
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:50 pm
Posts: 12821
Post 
Never ever underestimate James L Brooks. If there's going to be a film to take the big crowd-pleaser spot, it's gonna be Spanglish, not Phantom (they love musicals at NBR!!! so it not making the top 10 says a lot.).

Yeah, the fact that Fahrenheit 9/11 didn't make the top 5 documentaries at all, even though it was the one with the highest profile, but...the academy still loves it (that can't really be said aobut other films like vEra drake, Ray, and Collateral), will that trsanslate into a nomination? I don't know. (For what it's worth, I don't think it deserves it. But I think it still has a chance.)

_________________
Image

Best Actress 2008


Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:19 pm
Profile WWW
Extraordinary

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
Post 
The Sea Inside is eligible for Oscar since Spain submitted it over Bad Education. It's almost a lock for the win.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:33 pm
Profile WWW
Extraordinary

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
Post 
NBR almost never matches 5 for 5 with its top 10 and Oscar top 5, and I don't expect this to be the year. It could happen, but most likely 4 out of 5. I expect the top 3 from NBR to make the cut, with Million Dollar Baby next in line. I won't count out The Phantom of the Opera yet since Golden Globe will revive its campaign, and I think Spanglish still posts a threat.


Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:36 pm
Profile WWW
Lord of filth

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 9:47 pm
Posts: 9566
Post 
What the NBR does is, it shows us that some films have more heat or less heat. It doesn't change Oscar destiny. Unless you have Alexander or Kill Bill in your Oscar predictions...

Spanglish and Phantom of the Opera have nothing to worry about... yet.

I think the only thing that the NBR did this year was to show that there was a little more heat on Finding Neverland (although other than Mystic River, the line up last year was 2. Last Samurai, 3. Station Agent, 4. 21 Grams, 5. House of Sand and Fog... not exactly a great line up prediction wise...) and that Collateral is a player we have all forgotten about and may show up somewhere at the Oscars.


Thu Dec 02, 2004 12:15 am
Profile WWW
College Boy T

Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:52 pm
Posts: 16020
Post 
The more I think about Collateral, the more confident I am in its chances.

The film resonates and reminds me of Seabiscuit, a film in the summer that was largelly forgotten. Like Seabiscuit, the film was praised by critics for the performances and art direction. DreamWorks, not so long ago, had 3 BP wins in a row, so they know marketing tricks. And, with people thinking ESOTSM has no chance, Collateral or one of the two controversial films are the only realistic possibilities for a film that wasn't released in the last season (October - December).


Thu Dec 02, 2004 12:46 am
Profile
Extraordinary

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:41 pm
Posts: 25109
Location: San Mateo, CA
Post 
I won't get too excited about Collateral yet. Last year everybody was jumping on the bandwagon of Last Samurai after it was runner-up and won the best director. Collateral does have a lot more positive critic reviews, and Michael Mann is certainly more well-respected, but it's still a very long shot.


Thu Dec 02, 2004 12:54 am
Profile WWW
You must have big rats
User avatar

Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
Post 
xiayun wrote:
I won't get too excited about Collateral yet. Last year everybody was jumping on the bandwagon of Last Samurai after it was runner-up and won the best director. Collateral does have a lot more positive critic reviews, and Michael Mann is certainly more well-respected, but it's still a very long shot.


I agree somewhat. For some reason there is something about Collateral that doesn't exactly scream "Oscar" to me and I believe it will have a hard time getting nominated. It is comparable with last year's triumph of The Last Samurai at the oscars.

However, there is something that will help Collateral. Usually at least one pre-September movie always gets nominated. Really, almost always. Now this year Eternal Shunshine of the spotless Mind, The Passion of the Christ, Fahrenheit 9/11 and Collateral have a chance. The Passion of the Christ is pretty much out of the game with its too controversial topic and rather average reviews. Fahrenheit will not be able to overcome the fact that in the end it is a documentary. Eternal Sunshine has always been the most likely candidate, but now with its omission from the National Board of Review and the fact that it the film is rather too small and quirky, I think that it definitely raises Collateral's chance to become this year's pre-September oscar nominee. Furthermore, its reviews are much better than The Last Samurai's and The Last Samurai had another better-reviewed historical movie to compete with - Master and Commander. Collateral doesn't have that kind of a direct opponent.

Having said that, I still don't believe that it'll end up getting nominated, but its chances are sure higher now.

_________________
The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!

Image


Thu Dec 02, 2004 10:11 am
Profile WWW
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Reply to topic   [ 72 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group.
Designed by STSoftware for PTF.