*shrug*

Predicting the Oscar noms is usually pretty easy if you pay attention to the signs. The key word being usually.

There's nothing that indicates Life of Pi would magically become the Best Picture frontrunner. Or that Django Unchained is loved to the extent that it would get three acting nominations in one category.

Am I the only one who thinks Jackson is the most likely to get nominated? The academy loves older actors playing against type. Jackson has played one character for the past fifteen years and he took a complete 180.

And for those same reasons, Leo will be nominated, and stands as Django's best chance at a major cat win.

I am predicting nine:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor x2 (DiCaprio, Waltz)
Best Original Screenplay
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
Best Editing
Best Original Song

It could go even higher, though, with Best Cinematography and one or two sound nominations.

Django Unchained is very strong, in my opinion. I believe it would be in the final Best Picture lineup even if it were still limited to five films.

Of course there is; a nomination would indicate that. The same goes for all nominees.

There's a difference between being a Best Picture nominee and being likely to win the award. Do you actually think Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close had a legitimate shot at winning Best Picture after its nomination last year?

Crash in 2005. It's never a forgone conclusion.

Ang Lee didn't win Best Picture in 2005 with Brokeback Mountain, in 2000 with Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and in 1996 with Sense and Sensibility. We all know how the Academy likes to make up for their past snubbings, and I see this year as a golden opportunity.

He won Best Director for Brokeback. That was their way of rewarding him.

Life of Pi simply does not have the passion or immense critical acclaim needed to win Best Picture. If it had made $200M at the box office or continually topped critics' best-of lists, that'd be another story.

I'm sure it will get nominated and maybe pick up a few tech Oscars but in a year that has Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty and Argo, it's not happening. And in my opinion, Silver Linings Playbook is the dark horse candidate anyway.

But this is all fairly moot until we actually see nominations.

Actually these examples show that the Academy seemingly doesn't like Lee. He was flat out snubbed for Sense and Sensibility for a BD nom,l most expected him to win BD for CTHD, but he lost and Brokeback was the frontrunner yet it lost as well. So if anything, Lee directing this is not a plus, hehe.

The Hunger Games, right now, has a better chance of winning BP over Life of Pi.

Soeaking of Life of Pi, I need to see that film, thanks for the reminder Chip

Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty also have directors that have been rewarded before with BP Oscars, not just BD, and you say they are going to sweep. Unless you believe that the Academy favour Speilberg over Ang Lee.. which I don't believe.

There's no real argument you can make for Life of Pi not winning. You still haven't responded to Crash in 2005. Was your crystal ball not working that year, Libs?

Okay, here's my atempt at convincing you otherwise and giving a good argument:

What life of Pi doesn't have and what will hurt it the most is one thing:

little support in the acting branch. The actors make up a large chunk of the Academy voters. Being strong in the acting department helps you A LOT on your way to BP.

Brokeback Mountain won everything on ts way to the Oscars and of course I expected it to win BP and so did everyone else. But what did it miss? It lost the SAG Ensemble awardto Crash which was an early sign of possible things to come. Crash was helped by starring literally every other actor from Hollywood.

Almost every single BP winner has had strong acting support. Slumdog Millionaire and Return of the King had no acting noms at the Oscars, that's true. But BOTH won the SAG Ensemble awatrd. Hell, Slumdog even had a second SAG nom for Dev Patel.

Life of Pi pretty much has two actors that it focuses on (teen Pi and older Pi). That#s it. It is not scoring much actors' support AT ALL.

Ever since the establishment of the SAG awards it has happened only ONCE that a movie won Best Picture without a SAG Ensemble nom. That was during the very first SAG awards when Braveheart won the Oscar. However, Braveheart still most likely had acting support because it was directed by Mel Gibson, back then a very beloved and respected actor in Hollywood.

So yes, that is my argument against Life of Pi winning.

(and since you asked it like this: yes, I firmly believe the Academy will favor Spielberg over Ang Lee, but that's beside the point)

Crash was clearly the dark horse that year and it won. *shrug*

I'm not gonna argue with you about this, lol. I'll just echo most of what Lecter said above.

Well, Dr. Lecter, there's an answer I can appreciate. If it doesn't win, then I can fully understand why given your explanation.

Funny that Libs didn't give an explanation like that before, but now she nods along as if it were all so obvious. Pitiful attempt.

If I wanted to write an essay outlining an argument to you, Algren, I'd probably get about five words in before realizing what a big waste of time that was.

Whatever. You know but two things about the Oscars; Jack and shit, and Jack left town.

I don't proclaim to be an "expert" but I have been following the Oscars in-depth for about 15 years. I'm betting I know more about them than you do. We'll see who's right in a while.

Also, you're really a very unpleasant poster. Maybe you should go back to slobbering over David's posts instead of continuing to argue with me at every turn.

Well, I only argue with you if I feel you are incorrect about something, and an argument takes two, you know.

I am not predicting this, but if I had to name a dark, dark, dark horse, it might be Bill Murray in Best Actor. Hyde Park on Hudson has generated solid numbers despite mixed reviews, and Focus did mount a modest campaign, so people have seen the film. He is Golden Globe nominated. And the role is super Oscar friendly. Could pull a Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age type nomination.

It won't happen, of course. Just saying.

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announce their nominations in a half hour or so. I know it is a long shot, but I am hoping (praying) for a nomination for Keira Knightley.

I already mentioned this at FG but it looks like The Hunger Games will become the highest-grossing film to not garner an Oscar nomination, beating Spider-Man 3.

It is a major long shot, I know, but I would love for Cloud Atlas to score one nomination today, perhaps for its original score or art direction.

Could always score a random makeup nomination for the ridiculousness at the capital.

I'm gonna make a bold prediction that the oscar nominations disappoint everybody like they do every year.

+1