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 Oscar Predictions 
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Shack wrote:
I saw a good point made that if Gerwig misses Best Director nomination, backlash leads it to Argo its way to BP
Won’t happen. She only missed the Globes nom because they were making a different political statement with Ridley Scott.


Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:28 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions


:lol: I love Corden and Hawkins performance in this.


Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:48 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Shack wrote:
Barrabás wrote:
Shack wrote:
Some people are saying 3B has a race problem


What exactly is that supposed to mean? You didn't say "racist" outright so I assume it's a separate but related category of moral crime.

Sorry, I'm not up to date with all the GoodThink Liberal terms du jour.


https://psmag.com/social-justice/three- ... ad-on-race

https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/ent ... 977024001/


http://www.vulture.com/2018/01/oscars-2 ... klash.html

I've been seeing this on Twitter since shortly after the film released. A lot of people have taken issue with it.

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Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:55 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Shack wrote:
Barrabás wrote:
Shack wrote:
Some people are saying 3B has a race problem


What exactly is that supposed to mean? You didn't say "racist" outright so I assume it's a separate but related category of moral crime.

Sorry, I'm not up to date with all the GoodThink Liberal terms du jour.


https://psmag.com/social-justice/three- ... ad-on-race

https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/ent ... 977024001/


http://www.vulture.com/2018/01/oscars-2 ... klash.html

I've been seeing this on Twitter since shortly after the film released. A lot of people have taken issue with it.


I think the issue with the movie is bigger than the race problem. It makes light of the central characters (Dixon and Mildred)' horrible actions in order to make their redemptive moments possible. It is very manipulative. Have you seen it? Do you feel the same about the movie?

I don't doubt its chances at the Oscars. Voters love a movie with a big theme and some feel-good self-redemptive moments, middle of the road and not too edgy.


Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:03 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
DGA tomorrow, Awardswatch posters seem to have Craig Gillespie for I, Tonya as the sleeper. A stylized film and he's been nominated by DGA for commercials four times and won once. Garth Davis last year also had a DGA nomination for commercials and I still don't understand how he got in for Lion


Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:12 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
i.hope wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Shack wrote:
Barrabás wrote:
Shack wrote:
Some people are saying 3B has a race problem


What exactly is that supposed to mean? You didn't say "racist" outright so I assume it's a separate but related category of moral crime.

Sorry, I'm not up to date with all the GoodThink Liberal terms du jour.


https://psmag.com/social-justice/three- ... ad-on-race

https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/ent ... 977024001/


http://www.vulture.com/2018/01/oscars-2 ... klash.html

I've been seeing this on Twitter since shortly after the film released. A lot of people have taken issue with it.


I think the issue with the movie is bigger than the race problem. It makes light of the central characters (Dixon and Mildred)' horrible actions in order to make their redemptive moments possible. It is very manipulative. Have you seen it? Do you feel the same about the movie?

I don't doubt its chances at the Oscars. Voters love a movie with a big theme and some feel-good self-redemptive moments, middle of the road and not too edgy.


I have seen it. I don't take huge issue with it as people can have a change of heart. But I do feel in the case of Dixon that it comes way too quick and easy. I was still wanting him severely punished for throwing the guy out the window.

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Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:07 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
So what are our predictions regarding how much they discuss last year’s best picture blunder? I’m sure Jimmy will joke about it, but I’d like to see some acknowledgement from the academy themselves. Steve Harvey should give out the first award of the night.

Also, do we expect them to buck the tradition of having previous winners announce the acting award? You can’t throw Casey Affleck out there after this season of award shows. And I think that would fit well with the theme of “Time’s Up”.


Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:39 pm
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llegó a la casa vía marítima
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
They surely have a PR team aware of the backlash having Casey Affleck there would cause. I predict they will circumvent having to invite him by loudly announcing that, in honour of the #movement, they will have all the acting awards presented by groups of several actresses.

Now if James Franco is nominated.....

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Mon Jan 15, 2018 4:57 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
I would just have Sandra Bullock do it since most of the other A-list actresses are in the running for nominations this year.


Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:21 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
i.hope wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Shack wrote:
Barrabás wrote:
Shack wrote:
Some people are saying 3B has a race problem


What exactly is that supposed to mean? You didn't say "racist" outright so I assume it's a separate but related category of moral crime.

Sorry, I'm not up to date with all the GoodThink Liberal terms du jour.


https://psmag.com/social-justice/three- ... ad-on-race

https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/ent ... 977024001/


http://www.vulture.com/2018/01/oscars-2 ... klash.html

I've been seeing this on Twitter since shortly after the film released. A lot of people have taken issue with it.


I think the issue with the movie is bigger than the race problem. It makes light of the central characters (Dixon and Mildred)' horrible actions in order to make their redemptive moments possible. It is very manipulative. Have you seen it? Do you feel the same about the movie?

I don't doubt its chances at the Oscars. Voters love a movie with a big theme and some feel-good self-redemptive moments, middle of the road and not too edgy.


I have seen it. I don't take huge issue with it as people can have a change of heart. But I do feel in the case of Dixon that it comes way too quick and easy. I was still wanting him severely punished for throwing the guy out the window.


The other characters (the billboard ad agency guy and his secretary, the dentist, Mildred's co-worker) letting them (especially Dixon) get away even when they are the victims of their violence and power abuse is just too unbelievable. The story treats the absence of rule of law in the town as a matter of fact while it is a source of the growing rage between Dixon and Mildred. It weakens the message of resolution of rage by love and forgiveness that the movie tries to convey. It really is not about love or forgiveness. Most of what takes place in the movie would be prevented if the police acted more professionally and took their personal anger off the job.


Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:37 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
And if Meryl Streep is nominated it's also a problem. After all, SHE KNEW...


Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:04 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
MY PREDICTIONS

Quote:
BEST PICTURE

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Dunkirk
The Post
Call Me By Your Name
The Florida Project
The Big Sick
Molly's Game

BEST DIRECTOR

Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards

BEST ACTRESS

Frances McDorman, Three Billboards
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Meryl Streep, The Post
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

BEST ACTOR

Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
James Franco, The Disaster Artist

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All The Money In The World
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
Molly's Game
Mudbound
The Disaster Artist
Wonder

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Big Sick

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Mudbound
Call Me By Your Name

COSTUME DESIGN

Phantom Thread
Beauty & The Beast
The Greatest Showman
Darkest Hour
The Shape of Water

FILM EDITING

Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Blade Runner 2049

MAKEUP & HAIR

The Darkest Hour
Wonder
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

PRODUCTION DESIGN

The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Beauty & The Beast
The Darkest Hour

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Darkest Hour

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

This Is Me, The Greatest Showman
Remember Me, Coco
Mystery of Love, Call Me By Your Name
Mighty River, Mudbound
Evermore, Beauty & The Beast

DOCUMENTARY

Jane
Faces Places
City of Ghosts
Icarus
Last Men In Aleppo

SOUND EDITING

Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The Shape of Water
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

SOUND MIXING

Dunkirk
Baby Driver
The Greatest Showman
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water

VISUAL EFFECTS

The Shape of Water
War For The Planet of the Apes
Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ANIMATED

Coco
Loving Vincent
The Breadwinner
Lego Batman
Ferdinand

BEST FOREIGN

A Fantastic Woman
The Square
In The Fade
Foxtrot
Loveless



I don't actually think there will be 10 Best Picture nominees. Just predicted in case.

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Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:18 pm
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
SAGs not nominating Shape of Water makes no sense now that we know it's BP frontrunner and such an ensemble nomination friendly film. Their 5 nominations were Big Sick, Lady Bird, Get Out, Mudbound, Three Billboards. So it's a combination of women or anti-harrasment films + minority films. The last two years also fit the woke theme from Elba's statement win to Hidden Figures and Denzel (and Viola/Ali) winning last year. This year all the presenters will be female. It would seem to be the main force driving socially conscious wins like Moonlight may be the actors, and it could be the same this year if a film like Lady Bird pulls it out in the end and Shape of Water like three amigos films Gravity and The Revenant has PGA, DGA and Director split. Then again, it could also go the route of Innaritu's other film Birdman and just dominate. But it doesn't feel right to me as BP winner. Then again neither did Birdman until it was in the bag.


Sun Jan 21, 2018 3:16 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
SAG has to nominate eventual PGA winner/BP front-runner or it does not make sense? You are over-thinking. SAG is not obligated to act as a predictor of other awards.


Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:12 am
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Post Re: Oscar Predictions
i.hope wrote:
SAG has to nominate eventual PGA winner/BP front-runner or it does not make sense? You are over-thinking. SAG is not obligated to act as a predictor of other awards.


It's more that Shape of Water is an ensemble film so it should thrive in the Best Ensemble category at SAG. It's not a situation like La La Land where it missing SAG was explained by being a 2 star film. It would've been very plausible a few months ago in my opinion for it to win SAG and lose the other major guilds


Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:46 am
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